MBO融资方式与股东财富理论分析

融资方式是各界对我国上市公司MBO中最为关注的核心问题之一。文章区分非流通股东和流通股东两类主体,对MBO后上市公司迫于管理层还款压力而进行高额派现对不同类型股东财富的影响机理进行了解析,发现MBO后高额派现对管理层有利,而对广大外部中小流通股东不利。     

客户集中程度、外部审计与现金股利

高客户集中企业基于顾客满意度展开市场竞争,进而影响外部审计质量。基于信号传递理论,选取2016—2020年沪深两市A股上市公司作为样本,探究客户集中度对现金股利的影响以及产生机制。研究发现,客户集中度对现金股利存在负相关影响,客户集中程度对外部审计质量呈现显著正相关影响,外部审计质量对客户集中度影响现金股利的程度具有促进作用。基于研究结论,提出对策建议,以期在企业财务决策时平衡大客户的治理效应和风险效应之间的关系,寻求客户正向效应的最大化。     

Earnings,Book Values,and Dividends in a Stewardship Setting with Moral Hazard*

The paper addresses the following question: in a multiple-date agency setting, under what conditions will the dividend policy be of no incentive relevancy? It is shown that if the accounting data—earnings, book values, and dividends — satisfy standard owners' equity accounting constructs, and if these indicate that paying dividends is a zero NPV activity, then dividend policy incentive irrelevancy applies. The basic idea is to ensure that the (history of) abnormal (residual) earnings summarize the relevant information and the solution to the incentive problem. The paper also compares classical value irrelevancy with incentive irrelevancy, and the analysis shows that conditions for incentive irrelevancy are more stringent.     

Dividend Stickiness,Debt Covenants,and Earnings Management

Consistent with the notion that dividends are very sticky, Daniel, Denis, and Naveen ( 2008 ) report evidence that firms manage earnings upward when pre‐managed earnings are expected to fall short of dividend payments. However, we find that this evidence is not robust when controlling for firms' tendency to manage earnings upward to avoid reporting earnings declines; only firms with high leverage exhibit a statistically weak tendency to manage earnings to close deficits of pre‐managed earnings relative to dividends. We further report that the decision to cut dividends depends on whether reported earnings fall short of past dividends, but not on earnings management that eliminates a shortfall in pre‐managed earnings relative to dividend payments. Overall, our evidence suggests that firms that face dividend constraints are more likely to cut dividends than to manage earnings to avoid dividend cuts.     

Corporate Valuation and Dividends: UK Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests

In this study we investigate the long run relationship between dividends and corporate valuation with the use of panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. The long run relationship is estimated using fully modified OLS for a panel consisting of 479 firms listed on the London Stock Exchange over the time period 1984–2007. The empirical results provide clear support for the hypothesis that there is a single equilibrium relation between market value, book value, earnings and dividends, and that dividends have a positive impact on corporate valuation.     

高管学术经历能提高企业分红吗？

文章选取2008-2017年沪深A股3449上市公司的23193个样本数据，实证检验了高管学术经历与企业分红水平的关系。研究发现，相比于高管无学术经历的企业，有学术经历高管企业的分红水平显著更高。高管的学术经历通过缓解融资约束，而不是缓解过度投资的路径显著提高企业分红水平。在进一步的研究中，通过引入外部治理与企业产权性质影响因素，发现外部治理较弱、非国有企业的情况下，高管的学术经历对企业分红水平的提高作用更加明显。采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）、工具变量回归等检验结果依然稳健。研究丰富了高层梯队理论与企业分红相关性的文献，发现了中国情境下影响企业分红的新因素。     

The Earnings Quality Information Content of Dividend Policies and Audit Pricing

Recent studies indicate dividends are associated with higher‐quality earnings. Our study extends the literature by examining whether dividends' information is associated with auditors' assessment of their clients' earnings quality. Our results show that auditors charge lower fees to dividend‐paying clients than to nondividend‐paying clients and the average fee discount ranges from 6.0 to 10.6 percent. More importantly, we find dividends have an interactive effect with respect to earnings persistence and earnings manipulation: the negative association between audit fees and earnings persistence is more pronounced for dividend firms; and dividend payouts mitigate the positive relation between earnings manipulation risk and audit fees. Our results imply dividends reduce audit risk by enhancing clients' earnings quality information. We contribute to the literature by showing that auditors reflect the earnings quality information content of firms' dividend policies in their pricing decisions.     

Volatility of Tax Payments and Dividend Payouts*

Dividends are a key mechanism for shareholders to discipline managers and mitigate agency conflicts. This study examines whether the volatility of tax payments is associated with dividend payouts. Consistent with the predictions, results suggest that firms with more volatile tax payments are less likely to pay dividends overall and their dividends are lower in magnitude when doing so. These effects are economically significant and incremental to a firm's operating risk. The link between volatile tax payments and the likelihood of dividend payouts is weaker for firms that distribute dividends to alleviate agency conflicts. Similarly, the link between volatile tax payments and the amount of dividend payouts is weaker for firms that hold more cash for tax reasons. Taken together, these findings add to our understanding of the economic consequences of volatile tax payments and the determinants of dividend payouts.     

Shareholder Income Taxes and the Relation between Earnings and Returns*

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how shareholder‐level taxes affect earnings response coefficients (ERCs). Our tests indicate that when the tax rate on dividends increases, ERCs decrease for firms with high levels of dividend yield and whose marginal investor is likely to be an individual. For firms with high levels of share repurchase yield and whose marginal investor is likely to be an individual, an increase in dividend tax rate has no discernible effect on ERCs. These results are consistent with the notion that the tax penalty on dividends, relative to capital gains, reduces the earnings‐return relation.     

EVALUATING TAX REFORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTERNALITIES

According to the double-dividend hypothesis, revenue-neutralgreen tax reforms are expected both to improve the quality ofthe environment and to reduce the existing tax distortions.This paper develops welfare measures which are used to estimatethese dividends separately. It is shown that the existing taxsystem and the choice of the tax rate cuts which accompany anincrease in green taxes have considerable impact on the magnitudeof the environmental dividend. Even a negative impact cannotbe ruled out. Furthermore, the welfare measures allow us toanalyse the trade-off between the two dividends and to identifywelfare-improving tax reforms.     

Profits,dividends and industry restructuring: the Swedish paper and pulp industry between 1945 and 1977

This paper explores the role of profit distribution in the restructuring of the Swedish paper and pulp (P&P) industry between 1945 and 1977. In addressing this issue, we will draw on the life-cycle theory and market imperfection arguments to examine whether the less profitable firms shared more of their profits as dividends, or remained on the market longer by reinvesting the majority of the profits. Our study shows that an increasing share of the profits was distributed to owners over time, and thus less profit was reinvested in industrial renewal. We find that the observed general upward trend in dividends can be attributed to the decline in profit and firm legacy, as firms in the Swedish P&P industry kept dividends up while reducing reinvestment as their profit margins decreased over time. Our study shows that the market imperfections related to capital taxation and investment funds increased rather than decreased dividends.     

Dividend Policy at Firms Accused of Accounting Fraud

Recent studies and some policy experts have posited that dividends indicate higher‐quality earnings. In this study, we test this conjecture by comparing the dividend policies of firms accused of accounting fraud to those of firms not accused of accounting fraud. Specifically, we examine whether alleged fraud firms are as likely to be dividend payers as non‐fraud firms, and whether managers of dividend‐paying fraud firms increase dividends at the same rate as managers of non‐fraud firms. Our data reveal that dividend paying status is negatively associated with the probability of committing accounting fraud. In addition, we also find that, during the alleged fraud period, the earnings–dividends relation is weaker for the alleged fraud firms relative to firms not accused of fraud. Finally, using propensity score match tests, the data provide evidence that managers of alleged fraud firms increase dividends less often than managers of firms not accused of fraud, consistent with the alleged fraud firms not being able to match the dividend policies of firms not accused of fraud. Overall, our results suggest that dividends, especially dividend increases, are associated with higher earnings quality.     

上市公司发放现金股利的价值效应——基于委托代理问题视角的实证研究

现金股利发放反映了债权人、股东、管理者之间的利益分配关系,现金股利的价值效应受到委托代理问题的影响。采用2008—2017年沪深A股上市公司作为研究样本,在委托代理理论的分析框架下实证检验我国上市公司发放现金股利的价值效应。研究表明,发放现金股利可能会损害债权人利益,过度债务公司发放现金股利的价值效应较小,而债务不足公司发放现金股利的价值效应较大。基于管理者代理问题视角的研究发现,现金股利可以有效发挥降低管理者代理成本的作用,当管理者代理问题严重时公司发放现金股利的价值效应更大。基于控股股东代理问题视角的实证结果表明,现金股利可以作为替代性的治理机制约束控股股东行为,当控股股东代理问题严重时现金股利具有更高的价值效应。     

The Triple Taxation of Corporate EquityProfits

In the absence of liquidations and share repurchases, the value of corporate equity is the net present value of all future dividends. This net present value is subject to three taxes: the corporate income tax, the dividend income tax, and the capital gains tax. Algorithms are developed for calculating the aggregate tax rate on corporate equity net present value. Although the lowest aggregate tax rate occurs when all earnings are paid as dividends, corporations increase shareholder value by reinvesting earnings whenever the after-tax returns of doing so exceed the discount rate. It is these high return investments that are subject to the highest aggregate tax rates, potentially exceeding 90 percent of pre-tax value under current law.The author would like to thank Stephen Shmanske for his insights and support in the preparation of this paper. The author is also grateful to Donald Wort and Gary McBride for their comments. All remaining errors and omissions are the responsibility of the author.     

股利政策与股票的持有效用

本文以Ohlson（1995）模型为基础，通过对不同企业发展状态下的股利政策封股东财富的影响进行分析，结果表明处于快速增长期的企业不发放现金股利是利好消息，而处于衰退期的企业则发放现金股利封股东有利。     

数字金融与地方政府债务风险——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

基于中国2011—2018年29个省份的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型多维度剖析各省数字普惠金融的发展对地方政府债务风险水平的影响机制.结果显示:数字金融的发展对地方政府债务风险水平有着显著的正向影响;地方政府的经济治理能力在数字金融与地方债务风险之间存在反向的调节效应.表明数字金融发展为地方政府带来的融资便利并不能单纯地作为管控地方债务风险的武器,有效地提高地方政府经济治理能力,正确利用数字金融发展红利才是合理管控地方债务风险、保障区域经济持续健康发展的可行之策,这为应对数字时代下地方政府的债务治理问题、防范化解系统性金融风险提供了新的思考和启示.     

长三角地区上市公司股利政策影响因素研究

股利政策是指上市公司税后利润向股东支付股利和企业内部留存收益之间的分配选择。对长三角地区374家上市公司2007～2009年3年的财务数据回归分析发现:当年的EPS、市价、净资产收益率、应收账款周转率、流动比率与现金股利呈正相关,上年股利支付率、资产负债率与现金股利呈负相关;市价、每股净资产与股票股利呈正相关,应收账款周转率与股票股利呈负相关。     

本轮宏观经济波动的理性思考

本轮宏观经济波动同已往的不同,主要是因为国际收支失衡而引起的,所以需要有新的办法,关键是要深化改革。紧缩中出现的问题,是与企业自身的资本金过低而债务资金过高有密切关系的,不能将问题仅仅归于从紧的货币政策。股市在紧缩中的下滑,不简单是政策问题,而是上市公司长期不分红的结果,不分红必然使投资者把股价涨落作为重点,从而使中国股市成为投机性很强的市场,而不是以投资为基点的市场,因而不能简单救市,而是要深化改革。     

全球化、经济增长与南北差异——基于KOF指数的实证研究

基于反映全球化水平的KOF指数,选取54个国家1995~2009年的面板数据,对全球化与经济增长进行了实证研究,结果显示,全球化对经济增长起到促进作用,但存在＂倒U型＂关系。发展中国家比发达国家从全球化中获得了更大的红利,这个结果从实证上解释了Bhagwati提出的发达国家比发展中国家更加反对全球化这一现象的原因。基于全球化与经济增长的关系,我国应该进一步提高全球化水平、同时兼顾经济增长的国内动力因素。     

新颜

2019年12月的24日,石柱土家族自治县中益乡华溪村偏岩坝一派欢腾:400多名村民聚在这里,参加村集体经济的首次分红大会。"谭人英800元、向世春500元、陈朋400元……"430户村民分享了共计22.792万元的分红。自从华溪村试点"三变"改革以来,农村沉睡的土地被唤醒,改革的红利也正在加快释放。分享"三变"改革红利,仅仅是中益乡志在打赢脱贫攻坚战的一个缩影。今年3月,我们又来到中益乡。不论是在村民们翻修一新的家里,还是在种满黄精、黄连、蓝莓等经济作物的田间地头,我们总能看到干部群众忙碌的身影,深切地感受到"生活有奔头"的希望。