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1.
    
This study uses a multicountry, dynamic, quarterly CGE model, GlobeTERM, to estimate the economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia. The national welfare losses arising from the outbreak depend mostly on the duration of trade sanctions by importers of Australian animal products. If an outbreak is contained within several months, and trade sanctions are dropped within a year of the outbreak, the net present value of Australia's welfare losses may be around AUS$10 billion. If all importers restore Australian access within a year, other than China–Hong Kong, which delays by 5 years, welfare losses are around AUS$21 billion. In a less likely scenario, in which trade sanctions persist in all trading partners for 5 years after the disease has been eradicated, contrary to international guidelines, welfare losses may exceed AUS$85 billion. Trading partners also suffer welfare losses due to trade sanctions. These losses are large enough to imply, from a global perspective, that a shift towards vaccinate-to-live policies combined with global efforts to eradicate the disease may be cost-effective.  相似文献   

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The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic (drench) resistance in gastrointestinal parasite populations is decreasing the profitability of the Australian sheep industry. Refugia management can delay its development by not exposing a proportion of the worm population to chemical control. A dynamic‐optimisation model is used to assess the economic value of refugia for management of the worm species Teladorsagia circumcincta and macrocyclic lactone drenches in an application to Western Australian sheep flocks. A low rate of refugia (2 per cent) is most profitable under standard circumstances because it slows the development of resistance, but also reduces the proportion of the flock not exposed to chemical control. Frequent drench application should remain the primary method of control. However, its efficacy should be preserved through refugia management, rather than greatly reducing treatment frequency.  相似文献   

4.
Among the second-best approaches for the regulation of pollution,little attention has been paid to the distorting effect of intensivemargin policies on the extensive margin. This article shows,within a dynamic framework, that regulation of the intensivemargin has to be complemented by regulation of the extensivemargin. Depending on the elasticity of the pollution functionwith respect to nitrogen use, the appropriate regulation atthe extensive margin is zero, a tax or a subsidy. We show empiricallythat combining a nitrogen tax with land-use taxes is about 18per cent more cost efficient than a nitrogen tax alone and 58per cent more efficient than off-site abatement in the formof groundwater treatment.  相似文献   

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The land‐use optimisation framework, NZFARM, has been promoted as a tool that can be used to assess the economic and environmental impacts of policy on regional land use. This paper outlines how methodological limitations presently restrict its capacity to provide meaningful insight into the relative value of alternative land‐use configurations. The model is calibrated using positive mathematical programming, which has been shown in the literature to result in models that yield arbitrary output outside of the calibrated baseline. There is a high likelihood that this is the case, as no validation appears to have been carried out. Significant model development will be required before NZFARM outputs can be used with any confidence to inform future policy development. We conclude with suggestions on how NZFARM and models of its kind can be further developed to improve their capacity for meaningful simulation.  相似文献   

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To date, there is no consensus on optimal stocking rates in the semi‐arid Sahel. We develop a model for livestock management based on a detailed analysis of ecosystem dynamics, and we apply it to calculate optimal and sustainable livestock stocking rates in a Sahelian rangeland. The general model accounts for stochastic rainfall and the long‐term impact of grazing on rangeland productivity. For the case study area, the model shows that the optimal stocking rate is higher than the sustainable stocking rate. Hence, with current prices, it is optimal for the pastoralist society to deplete their resource base. In our case study, we also find that the current stocking rate exceeds the optimal stocking rate, which adds to soil depletion.  相似文献   

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In this study, we analyse effort optimisation in common rights‐based joint‐stock artisanal fisheries when several objectives are pursued by the authorities and the fleets are heterogeneous. The purpose is to discuss policy options available to the authorities and their implications in terms of trade‐offs between goals. We apply a multi‐objective programming model to the sardine and anchovy artisanal fisheries in central southern Chile. The results suggest that the regulatory system generates inefficient solutions for profit and employment maximisation goals. Moreover, the fleet structure of the artisanal organisations is central for the outcomes obtained by different policy simulations. To improve effort assignment, the authorities should seek to increase flexibility in the system.  相似文献   

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The objective of this article is to assess the integration of the international skim milk powder (SMP) market. This is pursued using monthly data over 2001 to 2014 from the three principal SMP‐producing regions (the EU, the USA and Oceania) and nonparametric kernel‐based and time‐varying copulas. The empirical results point to a strong and an increasing degree of overall price co‐movement and to statistically significant probabilities for joint price crashes and booms. While the EU and Oceania have been the regions with the highest degree of integration, the USA has been catching up with them.  相似文献   

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Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario‐dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better‐off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex‐ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex‐post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.  相似文献   

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ABSTRACT

The dairy market is one of the fastest growing agri-food sectors in Kosovo, yet the farm structure is fragmented. The level of productivity is lower compared with European Union levels and shows potential for improvements. The consumption of dairy products is expected to rise due to income growth and segmentation of consumers that would reflect different preferences for low-fat or zero-fat products, products with natural additives, and so on. On the market level, a significant share of the consumed milk and dairy products is imported. This study aims to better understand attitudes and preferences of Kosovar consumer segments toward milk and dairy products. A quantitative survey with 300 consumers was conducted in major Kosovo cities. Applying a reduced version of the Food Related Lifestyle instrument identified three distinct consumer segments: the conservative consumer segment, the socially oriented foodie, and the information-seeking eco-consumer. The latter two segments are especially open to trying new food products and actively search information about food. All three consumer segments show strong consumer patriotism by believing that domestic milk and cheese are safer than imported products and are of higher quality. This indicates the strong market potential for dairy farmers and companies in the Kosovo, which should develop new food products having these segments in mind. The authors explore the strategies that farmers and companies should use to better target these consumer groups and gain greater access to desirable segments.  相似文献   

13.
孙彪 《现代食品》2022,28(3):200-203
为了研究牛奶中丙酸杆菌的筛选与鉴定方法。本文运用高效液相色谱法对分离纯化后的丙酸杆菌进行定量转化,完成筛选和鉴定方法设计。结果表明,在牛奶制备样品中能筛选出不同形态的丙酸杆菌,且产生丙酸的效果有所增加,利用牛奶作为培养基可促进丙酸的生成;以葡萄糖作为培养基,在240 h内生成的丙酸含量为7.0 g·L-1。  相似文献   

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This paper estimates the inefficiencies associated with the regionalisation of the milk quota trade. An optimisation model is developed to estimate the economic value of quota. Quota values are aggregated to derive quota sale and purchase curves under two scenarios: first, where quotas can be traded nationally and second, where the trade of quota is regionally restricted. Quota trade is simulated and the consequent effects on supplier structure estimated. Through the derivation of sectoral cumulative cost curves it is possible to estimate the impact of regionalising quota trade on sector efficiency. The model is solved using National Farm Survey data from Ireland and the inefficiencies of regionalised quota trade in Ireland are estimated at €27 million. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of restricted quota trade, especially in the context of eventual quota removal.  相似文献   

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澳大利亚地处世界上四大沙尘窝之一,是土地沙化较为严重的国家。澳大利亚政府采取了一系列政策措施,有效地遏制了土地沙化,减轻了风沙危害,改善了生态环境。借鉴澳大利亚经验,提出了我国应从制定优惠政策、活化机制、落实责任、加强部门协作、加强治沙队伍建设、加大治沙宣传等方面的政策建议。  相似文献   

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The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.  相似文献   

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Urban households account for most of the milk consumption in China, but their consumption is hampered by safety concerns. Using survey data collected in Beijing and Harbin in 2010, this paper simultaneously analyses urban households' milk consumption using a multiple linear model and their willingness‐to‐pay for milk safety using an ordered choice model. The results of this study show that as income increases, urban households consume more milk and are willing to pay a higher premium for milk safety. Modern food marketing channels play a positive role in stimulating milk consumption and building consumers' confidence in milk safety. The growth in the elderly population influences milk consumption positively, but their demand for milk safety is negatively affected by higher price. The combined analysis of households' demand for milk quantity and safety may be useful to the Chinese government in promoting the development of the domestic milk industry and to dairy firms in exploring the milk market in China.  相似文献   

18.
Summary

This paper focuses on the housing production and development approval processes: the agencies involved and the implications for the product, housing, in terms of costs and design. Changing household structure, expansion of metropolitan areas and rising costs (financial and social) mean that the traditional style of single storey detached homes no longer provides adequate choice. An investigation into housing costs in 1978, found that the land development process and approval procedures were major contributors to both inefficiencies in production and conservative attitudes inhibiting the diffusion of new ideas and alternative dwelling choices. The paper reviews changes which have taken place during the 1980s especially in the role of the states in land development, changes in approval processes (planning, subdivision and titling) and more effective use of land by improved design and layout. These are examined against a background of the uniqueness of the Australian housing system with its emphasis on owner‐occupation and which in common with Britain has an increasing affordability problem. The roles of landowners, speculators, developers (including the state land authorities), housebuilders and house‐owners are examined together with some of the factors affecting availability and choice.  相似文献   

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Following the abolition of the milk quota in 2008, farmers in Switzerland strongly increased the use of concentrate feed in milk production. Against this background, the Swiss government introduced the voluntary grassland‐based milk and meat (GMF) programme in 2014, which combines economic incentives with feeding restrictions to reduce the reliance on concentrate feed and increase the use of grass feed. We analyse the economic and ecological impacts of the GMF programme at the farm and at the sector level in the short‐ and long‐run. We use a difference‐in‐differences approach (ex‐post) and an agent‐based simulation model SWISSland (ex‐ante) to construct counterfactual states to evaluate the programme's impacts. We find that the GMF programme reduces the use of concentrate feed and increases the use of grass feed in Swiss milk production. Whereas the programme has a positive effect on economic indicators such as the farm income, we find no effect on ecological indicators such as the N surplus. Our analysis suggests that feeding restrictions on concentrate feed are not enough to achieve a reduction in the N surplus. Additional feeding restrictions on grassland are necessary. Furthermore, the GMF programme has a dampening effect on sectoral milk supply, and leads to a higher milk price.  相似文献   

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The growing number of bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) alongside exchange rate volatility has raised a question on whether these affect exporters’ pricing behaviors, hence competitiveness. This study contributes to this topic by examining Australian dairy export price behavior across eight major markets taking into account the extent of pass‐through of exchange rate and tariff as well as FTAs between Australia and its trading partners. Commodity‐level dairy trade data from 1996 to 2016 and the feasible generalized least squares methods are employed. The study finds incomplete pass‐through at the industry level. The dairy export prices decrease by 1.7% if Australian dollar depreciates by 10%, while 10% tariff reduction is associated with 0.7% export price cut. Results at the commodity level show different pricing behaviors across destination and commodity markets. Overall, apart from the tariff effects, there is minimal evidence of the impacts of FTAs on dairy export prices.  相似文献   

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