On the relationship between product substitutability and tacit collusion

This paper examines the effect of increased product substitutability on quantity‐setting firms’ ability to sustain tacit collusion in a market. It uses a general demand function and the trigger strategy of Friedman (Friedman JW. 1971. A non‐cooperative equilibrium for supergames. Review of Economic Studies 38: 1–12) to show that while increased product substitutability hinders sustainability of tacit collusion in the case of linear and concave demand functions, it may either hinder or facilitate firms’ ability to sustain tacit collusion in the case of convex demand functions. Thus, this paper adds to the growing view that one must use a case‐by‐case analysis in judging whether firms in more homogenous product markets find it easier or harder to tacitly collude. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of corporate governance in forecasting bankruptcy: Pre- and post-SOX enactment

This paper contributes to the literature by documenting the improved performance of bankruptcy prediction models after including corporate governance variables. The empirical results demonstrate better predictive power for financial bankruptcy than previous bankruptcy prediction models, particularly in the post-SOX period. Our theoretical argument emphasizes the urgent need for such improvements to the bankruptcy prediction model following the introduction of the SOX Act, with the empirical results providing intuitive economic meaning for all relevant market participants. Policymakers may consider enacting laws to include designs for corporate governance monitoring mechanisms, entrepreneurs may use this model to improve their own governance structures and compensation mechanisms to avoid financial bankruptcy, and investors may refer to it to ensure that ‘losers’ are excluded from their investment portfolios.     

审计师选择权与审计合谋的治理

本文通过分析导致审计合谋的自发性和引致性动因，以及由于中国国情所导致审计合谋的特有动囚，指出改革现有审计委员会的必要性，并对于改制後的审计委员会产生机制及其运行机制提出建议，以此来确定审计师选择权的归属问题。     

The duality of bankruptcy process in Finland

Standard bankruptcy prediction methods lead to models weighted by the types of failure firms included in the estimation sample. These kinds of weighted models may lead to severe classification errors when they are applied to such types of failing (and non-failing) firms which are in the minority in the estimation sample (frequency effect). The purpose of this study is to present a bankruptcy prediction method based on identifying two different failure types, i.e. the solidity and liquidity bankruptcy firms, to avoid the frequency effect. Both of the types are depicted by a theoretical gambler's ruin model of its own to yield an approximation of failure probability separately for both types. These models are applied to the data of randomly selected Finnish bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. A logistic regression model based on a set of financial variables is used as a benchmark model. Empirical results show that the resulting heavily solidity-weighted logistic model may lead to severe errors in classifying non-bankrupt firms. The present approach will avoid these kinds of error by separately evaluating the probability of the solidity and liquidity bankruptcy; the firm is not classified bankrupt as long as neither of the probabilities exceeds the critical value. This leads the present prediction method slightly to outperform the logistic model in the overall classification accuracy.     

The debt crisis in Ireland

This paper takes a multidisciplinary approach to analyze the current debt crisis in Ireland. It briefly reviews Irish economic performance from 1980 to 2008 and in particular the Celtic Tiger years. The paper looks at changes in the Irish money supply and its contribution to the Irish housing bubble and the subsequent economic problems facing Ireland. An estimate of the negative wealth effect in Ireland since 2007 is made. Given that Ireland is a small open economy, a number of other factors which are both domestic and international are considered in an attempt to explain what has happened in Ireland, where might Ireland go from here and what lessons can be learnt. These factors include: the theory of political economics, the principal-agent problem, the theory of optimal currency areas, the Balassa Samuelson effect, the dynamics of a capitalist economy, neo-liberalism, European monetary integration, international bond markets and ‘insurance’ that was sold to cover a Eurozone breakup. The Irish culture is considered to differentiate Ireland from other EU countries, in particular, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.     

Risk sharing,risk shifting and the role of convertible debt

This paper considers a financial contracting problem between a risk neutral entrepreneur and a risk averse investor. Once the venture is started, the entrepreneur chooses an action that determines the riskiness of the venture’s payoff. When action choice is contractible, the optimal risk sharing consideration under limited liability calls for a pure debt contract and the low risk action is adopted. When the action choice is not contractible, due to the risk shifting problem implementing the low risk action requires a deviation from the optimal risk sharing. I focus on situations where despite this deviation, the risk averse investor prefers to implement the low risk action and show that a convertible debt contract is superior to pure debt, pure equity and any mixture of debt and equity.     

企业债务风险防范中的地方政府角色定位

针对企业债务风险,政府应本着以预防为主,以结构性去杠杆为思路,以市场化方式分步骤、有计划地加以防范和化解。应建立地方规模以上工业企业债务动态监测机制,以债务重组的方式化解企业债务困境,以创新发展提升企业盈利能力,通过市场化方式解决部分僵尸企业债务风险,适当释放无法处置的企业债务,让僵尸企业尽快退出市场,给新经济发展腾挪空间和资源,构建多层次资本市场体系,创新资本市场服务模式,拓宽企业融资渠道,加强企业债务风险防范的法治建设。     

On optimality of illegal collusion in contracts

Illegal collusion is a widespread phenomenon all around the world. Yet, models of hierarchical agency relationships tend not to predict collusion. This paper demonstrates that a natural requirement of interim efficiency suffices for collusion to appear in equilibrium in a simple standard setting. The optimal extent of collusion depends on the efficacy of the legal system. When the transaction costs associated with illegal deals are small enough, inducing some illegal collusion between the agent and his supervisor increases the principal's payoff. Received: 9 December 1996 / Accepted: 11 April 1998     

供应链中考虑隐性知识转化的供应商选择

文中主要讨论考虑隐性知识转化时的供应商选择,并建立相应的模型进行应用分析。通过有无采购商参与两种情况下利润的比较,得出采购商参与的情况下可以提高供应链的整体效率的结论,给出供应链环境下供应商选择的新思路。     

Detection of collusion in government procurement auctions

Research on bidder collusion in procurement auctions is reasonably successful in unveiling the mechanisms of collusion among the bidders. But it is relatively weak in forwarding effective practical methods of collusion detection before the winner is declared, because they presuppose the knowledge of collusion in specific auctions. Past studies, however, point out the need for working with bid price-to-reserve price ratios rather than bid prices or winning bid prices, to be free from the problem of heteroscedasticity. They also draw an important inference that the set of collusive data are significantly different from the set of competitive data. On the basis of these basic facts, the current paper outlines a seven-step approach to collusion detection. The approach makes rudimentary statistical analysis of bid price-to-reserve price ratios for all the bidders. The analysis comprises tests of equality of means, medians and variance and tests of skewness, autocorrelation and normality of the ratios. It divides the ratios into two significantly different clusters. The cluster with the higher mean and variance values of the ratios corresponds to collusive bidding with the other cluster corresponding to competitive bidding. The paper proposes the construction of a process control chart to detect occurrence of collusion in an auction immediately after the price bids are opened. The approach is illustrated by applying it to data from procurement auctions for construction projects in a State Department of the Republic of India.     

On the profitability of collusion in location games

In this note we take a first step towards the analysis of collusion in markets with spatial competition, focusing on the case of pure location choices. We find that collusion can only be profitable if a coalition contains more than half of all players. This result holds for location games played in k-dimensional Euclidean space as long as consumers are distributed via atomless density functions. For competition on the unit interval, unit circle, and unit square we also derive sufficient conditions for collusion to be profitable. The results have immediate implications for mergers in spatial markets.     

The changing sources of new mortgage debt

A much clearer understanding is needed of the forces driving the current upsurge in the mortgage market and of the key factors contributing to the exceptional growth of mortgage indebtedness. It would then be easier to judge whether the widely-expected downswing in mortgage lending will be reasonably limited and gradual, or more pronounced and protracted.
This paper, by Richard Talbot, develops an appropriate analytical framework and model that traces the composition of incremental mortgage borrowing over the period since the mid-1980s. Estimates have been compiled for the various elements of additional borrowing using data from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders and the Bank of England back to 1993, and other statistics on the earlier composition of bank approvals and building society advances.
This analysis of the debt aggregation process suggests that, at the level of the individual household, people simply will be unable, and indeed unwilling, to go on absorbing the relatively large amounts of incremental debt implied by many medium-term forecasts for mortgage lending.     

Environmental policy and stable collusion: The case of a dynamic polluting oligopoly

We show that the imposition of a Markovian tax on emissions, that is, a tax rate which depends on the pollution stock, can induce stable cartelization in an oligopolistic polluting industry. This does not hold for a uniform tax. Thus, accounting for the feedback effect that exists within a dynamic framework, where pollution is allowed to accumulate into a stock over time, changes the result obtained within a static framework. Moreover, the cartel formation can diminish the welfare gain from environmental regulation such that welfare under environmental regulation and collusion of firms lies below that under a laissez-faire policy.     

The knowledge brokers: venture capitalists,tacit knowledge and regional development

This article reviews the role of knowledge in economic development and the actors through which it is created and transferred. Unpacking the often oversimplified dichotomy between tacit and explicit knowledge, the contribution of firms, communities of practice and regions to the creation of knowledge is considered. While acknowledging the importance of global knowledge flows, it is argued that regional processes of Marshallian interaction and observation retain their relevance even within the decidedly global financial and internet industries. This argument is supported empirically through an analysis of the spatial structure of the knowledge used by venture capitalists during the development of the internet industry. The ability to create and access knowledge proves key for venture capitalists throughout their work, but particularly in (1) selecting promising industries, (2) finding and evaluating firms, and (3) assisting portfolio companies. Cet article étudie le rôle du savoir dans l'expansion économique, ainsi que les acteurs qui permettent de le créer et le transmettre. En démêlant la dichotomie souvent simplifiée à outrance entre savoirs tacite et explicite, il examine l'apport des entreprises, communautés de pratiques et régions dans la création du savoir. Tout en reconnaissant l'importance des flux internationaux de connaissances, il soutient que les processus régionaux d'observation et d'interaction marshallienne restent pertinents même pour les secteurs de l'Internet et de la finance résolument planétaires. Cet argument est étayé empiriquement par l'analyse de la structure spatiale du savoir utilisé par les spéculateurs capitalistes pendant l'essor des activités de l'Internet. L'aptitude à créer du savoir et à y accéder est essentielle pour eux quel que soit leur travail, mais surtout pour repérer les secteurs prometteurs, trouver et évaluer des entreprises, et aider les sociétés de capital‐risque.     

The Brazilian bankruptcy law reform,corporate ownership concentration,and risk-taking

We investigate whether a bankruptcy reform, which increased creditors' protection, affected the risk taking of Brazilian firms. Collecting data from Brazilian (treatment group) and Argentinian, Chilean, Colombian, Mexican, and Peruvian firms (control group) and using a difference-in-difference technique, we show that Brazilian firms with concentrated ownership structure decreased risk taking after the reform. Our results suggest that these firms reduced risk in response to increasing creditors' protection, possibly because controlling shareholder fear losing control. Moreover, our results indicate that the reform probably provoked a wealth transfer from minorities to controlling shareholders.     

Determinants of financial distress and bankruptcy in highly levered transactions

Prior literature on highly levered transactions (levered buyouts or levered recapitalizations) has emphasized either changes in governance or the structuring of their financing in helping these firms avoid financial distress or bankruptcy. Observing a sample of HLTs over time, we observe that debt composition is a more critical influence than proposed changes in governance for the likelihood of an HLT avoiding financial distress or bankruptcy. Such evidence is consistent with the [Chemmanur, T. & Fulghieri, P. (1994). Reputation, renegotiation, and the choice between bank loans and publicly traded debt. Review of Financial Studies 7, 475–506] model and suggests that the critical factor is the ability to informally renegotiate debt terms with a few lenders.     

An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia

This paper proposes an integrative and dynamic approach for analyzing business failure. The simultaneous estimation results obtained with Australian data indicate significant associations between bankruptcy rates in different industries. Most of these associations are positive and hence implying that bankruptcy in one industry can inflict a ‘domino’ effect on other industries. The estimated significant negative association between current and lagged bankruptcy rates in the industries under consideration lend support to the survival of the fittest hypothesis. The estimation results also highlight the important effects of industry, domestic and international economic conditions on bankruptcy rates.     

Entry,financing, and bankruptcy decisions: The limited liability effect

A firm, which has a privileged right to undertake an irreversible investment project, simultaneously determines whether to exercise this project and also how many bonds to issue in the presence of demand uncertainty. The firm will not exercise the project until its net value from investing immediately equals its option value from delaying investment. The firm’s choice of debt levels balances the tax advantage of debt against a cost associated with the event of bankruptcy. The effects of uncertainty, asset specificity, and the costs to purchase capital later on a firm’s entry, financing, and bankruptcy decisions are examined and compared with those in the literature.     

The effects of handling outliers on the performance of bankruptcy prediction models

Ratio type financial indicators are the most popular explanatory variables in bankruptcy prediction models. These measures often exhibit heavily skewed distribution because of the presence of outliers. In the absence of clear definition of outliers, ad hoc approaches can be found in the literature for identifying and handling extreme values. However, it is not clear how these different approaches can affect the predictive power of models. There seems to be consensus in the literature on the necessity of handling outliers, at the same time, it is not clear how to define extreme values to be handled in order to maximize the predictive power of models. There are two possible ways to reduce the bias originating from outliers: omission and winsorization. Since the first approach has been examined previously in the literature, we turn our attention to the latter. We applied the most popular classification methodologies in this field: discriminant analysis, logistic regression, decision trees (CHAID and CART) and neural networks (multilayer perceptron). We assessed the predictive power of models in the framework of tenfold stratified crossvalidation and area under the ROC curve. We analyzed the effect of winsorization at 1, 3 and 5% and at 2 and 3 standard deviations, furthermore we discretized the range of each variable by the CHAID method and used the ordinal measures so obtained instead of the original financial ratios. We found that this latter data preprocessing approach is the most effective in the case of our dataset. In order to check the robustness of our results, we carried out the same empirical research on the publicly available Polish bankruptcy dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. We obtained very similar results on both datasets, which indicates that the CHAID-based categorization of financial ratios is an effective way of handling outliers with respect to the predictive performance of bankruptcy prediction models.     

Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy

We analyze the properties of a three-sector network economy characterized by credit relationships connecting downstream and upstream firms (inside credit) and credit relationships connecting firms and banks (outside credit). The network topology changes over time due to an endogenous process of partner selection (the preferred-partner choice rule). The output of simulations shows that a business cycle at the macroeconomic level can develop as a consequence of the complex interaction of the heterogeneous financial conditions of the agents involved. In this paper we focus on the emergence of bankruptcy crises: the bankruptcy of one agent can bring about the bankruptcy of one or more other agents in a snowball effect of more or less large size, depending on the network structure and the incidence of non-performing loans on balance sheets of agents involved.