Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Price‐Volume Relationship

This paper presents some evidence for the presence of temporal asymmetry in the price-volume relationship in the crude oil futures market. By using threshold models we show that there is bidirectional causality between volume and prices, whereas the conventional model that assumes symmetry can only detect unidirectional causality. The results also show that the price-volume relationship is asymmetric, in the sense that negative price and volume changes have stronger effects (on each other) than positive changes. Some explanations for asymmetry in the price-volume relationship are suggested.     

Tax-motivated transfer pricing and US intrafirm trade prices

This paper analyzes monthly data on US international trade prices between 1997 and 1999 in order to investigate the impact of tax influences on intrafirm trade prices. Results indicate that there is substantial evidence of tax-motivated transfer pricing in US intrafirm trade prices. There is a strong and statistically significant relationship between countries’ tax rates and the prices of intrafirm transactions. Controlling for other variables that affect trade prices, as country tax rates are lower, US intrafirm export prices are lower, and US intrafirm import prices are higher. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions regarding tax-motivated income shifting behavior.     

Bounded dividends, earnings and fundamental stock values

This paper applies a model of fundamental share prices based on a bounded dividends process, with earnings as the upper bound, to assess the deviations of actual prices for over- and under-valuations. The fundamental model extends the traditional present value of future dividends analysis to allow for the effect of an earnings-dividends trade-off effect. The simple fundamental model includes a closed form share price solution which may be calibrated to generate fundamental values from which to assess actual prices for over or under valuations. The properties of the model are explored with a simulation example. The empirical example is based on S&P data and the analysis provides evidence of persistent over-valuations since the late 1990’s. Expressed another way, the analysis highlights the role of factors, other than dividends and earnings in the determination of actual asset prices since the late 1990s.     

Rockets and feathers meet markup margins: Applications to the oil and gasoline industry

This article investigates the existence of asymmetric price transmission between crude oil, rack (wholesale) and retail gasoline prices. A threshold cointegration technique is used, with regime switches being triggered by the size of the markup margin. There is consistent evidence of band‐TAR in which the crude, rack and retail prices are free to diverge until the markup margin is squeezed or stretched beyond a lower or upper critical threshold. This finding indicates that abnormally high markup margins cannot be sustained, which provides evidence against market power exertion. The threshold error correction models indicate that there is no systematic relationship between the speed of adjustment back to the long‐run relationship and the markup margin, which rules out the existence of “rockets and feathers.”     

Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications

The purpose of this paper is to examine the properties of locally explosive regimes in the light of steady state results for threshold auto-regressive (TAR) models recently derived by Knight and Satchell (2011) [Journal of Time Series Econometrics, 3]. We study the conditions under which a steady state distribution of deviations of asset prices from fair value can be obtained using our simple model based on our particular definition of a bubble, noting that it is applicable to locally explosive regimes. After deriving general results, the analysis is further extended by considering the steady state distribution in three cases of a normally distributed error process, a non normally (exponentially) distributed steady-state process and a switching random walk with a fairly general iid error process. Then, the issues related to unit root testing for the presence of bubbles using standard econometric procedures are examined. Our results shed light on the ubiquitous finding of no bubbles in the econometric literature.     

Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The short-term interest rate follows a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process that allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favour of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure captures stylized facts of the data. In particular, it implies a nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate.     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上,利用均衡修正模型对中国1987-1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析.有很强的经验证据,说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系.因果关系走向是通货膨胀影响粮价变动,而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀.另外,研究还发现,我国长期真实粮价基本不变,说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据.然而,粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出反应时,通常会发生过度或超量调节.     

The price effects of joining the euro: modelling the Greek experience using non-linear price-adjustment models

The widely-held hypothesis that accession to the EMU has caused a structural increase in Greek consumer prices is tested. No econometric evidence of such an effect is found. There is strong evidence of (a) multiple structural breaks in the process driving Greek equilibrium consumer prices and (b) non-linear price adjustment. The findings explain the post-EMU accession acceleration in Greek prices as normal, equilibrium-restoring behaviour. They also have important policy implications for the countries planning to join the euro in the foreseeable future.     

Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia

Using an econometric technique suggested by Hansen [(2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. Labor productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 117–128], this paper studies the inflation–economic growth nexus in the case of Tunisia for the 1993-01–2012-11 period. The results show that there is one inflation threshold value that does exist for Tunisia. This evidence strongly sustains the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is non-linear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests that a threshold value of inflation rate below 3.48% fosters economic growth. In addition, above this threshold level, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation rate and economic growth. These results have important implications to policy-makers who should pay attention to the inflation phenomena. Therefore, a new policy that takes into account such a threshold should be set up.     

Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence

In this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel‐fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so‐called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negative‐ of the change in international oil prices, is inadequate for the Spanish case and the magnitude of the change in international oil prices is also relevant. For small changes in international oil prices there is neither price asymmetry nor rockets and feathers behavior in the retail markets. However, price asymmetries in line with rockets and feathers behavior in retail gasoline and gasoil markets are present when these changes exceed a certain threshold. Following Martín‐Moreno et al. (2018) we first apply an Auto‐regressive Error Correction Model and endogenously estimate the threshold triggering the rockets and feathers behaviour. A time‐varying nature for the dynamic response of retail prices to oil price shocks is revealed when we estimate the TAR‐ECM model using rolling windows. Hence, in a second stage, we use a Markov‐switching estimation of the model to test the robustness of the results given its suitability to changing environments. This study could have relevant policy implications for the Spanish gasoline and gasoil retail markets due to the ongoing debate on the existence of a rockets and feathers behavior in gasoline and gasoil retail markets between the Spanish regulatory body and the oil companies.     

Half-lives of Deviations from PPP: Contrasting Traded and Nontraded Components of Consumption Baskets

The paper examines the convergence question by contrasting the half‐lives of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) across traded and nontraded goods in an exchange rate model with sticky prices. In particular, empirical results show that in most cases the half‐lives of PPP deviations for traded goods are shorter than those for total consumption and for nontraded goods.     

Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration

During the 1980s and 1990s, most developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America implemented structural adjustment reforms, which included the liberalization of export crop markets and the abolition of marketing boards. The emergence of new marketing systems may have altered price transmission mechanisms, especially if collusion behaviors have appeared among domestic stakeholders along the marketing chain. I use threshold cointegration tools to analyze the dynamics of world price transmission to coffee growers in three deregulated markets. The methods I use allow me to test the presence of a threshold in both the cointegrating relationship and its corresponding error correction model. Over the pre-reform period, I detect asymmetric price adjustments that appear favorable to producers - deviations from the long-run equilibrium resulting from largest increases in world prices being eliminated relatively quickly - and disappear in the post-reform period. On the contrary over the post-reform period, the results suggest that largest decreases in world prices may be transmitted relatively quickly to growers. These results can be seen as expressions of a favorable pricing policy over the pre-reform period and an unfavorable influence of new private agents over the post-reform period, meaning that in some cases reforms may have failed to create competitive market structures.     

Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries

This study applies non-linear threshold unit-root test to investigate the non-stationary properties of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) with risk premium for ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We find that non-linear threshold unit-root test has higher power than linear method suggested by Caner and Hansen (2001) if the true data generating process of risk premium convergence is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of UIP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicating that UIP holds true for seven countries. Our findings point out that capital mobility and exchange market efficiency are in these CEE countries with non-linear way.     

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity.     

The influence of CSR on firm value: an application of panel smooth transition regression on Taiwan

Previous studies on the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and firm value generally belong to one of the two opposing schools of thought: the social impact hypothesis and the shift of focus hypothesis. This study, however, proposes that the relationship between CSR and company value is non-linear and neither wholly positive nor negative. We employed the corporate social responsibility index (CRSI) to test this hypothesis. The panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model was used to analyse listed Taiwanese firms from 2010 to 2012 and calculate the value transition threshold of CSR, using CSRI as the transition variable. We then applied PSTR to determine whether CSRI shows a two-regime, non-linear relationship, as inferred by our model. Empirical findings show that the threshold value of CSRI is 13.082, thus, we concluded that investment in CSR does not contribute to enhancing company value until it exceeds the value transition threshold.     

Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models

This study proposes a cumulative error correction model where the summing weights follow a geometrically decreasing function of prior deviations from the equilibrium and are estimated from the data. It is shown that this approach nests both the traditional error correction model – where no weight is given to deviations from the steady state prior to the most recent period – and the error correction model based on the idea of multicointegration.The form of accumulation presented here does not change the order of integration of the series, as is the case in the multicointegration approach of Granger and Lee (1989). Furthermore, it is very parsimonious as only one or two parameters more have to be estimated. The assumption of geometrically decreasing weights can be tested by estimating the model in its unrestricted form.Based on this new model type, the relationship between private consumption and real disposable income of private households in the US is estimated. The short-term forces which set off the most recent period's deviations are much smaller than would be suggested by a VEC and a conventional single equation ECM, and the income elasticity is lower as well. The proposed model outperforms the other two with respect to its forecasting power.     

An investigation into the dynamic relationship between international and China’s crude oil prices

This article studies the dynamic relationship between international (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and domestic (Da Qing) crude oil prices in China using threshold cointegration method. We find evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between each pair of international and Da Qing oil prices, favouring the market integration hypothesis. We also estimate asymmetric adjustments under the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) specification in a TVECM, and the results show that adjustments to eliminate disequilibrium happen faster when oil price spread increases than when it decreases. The long-run and short-run Granger causality tests support the notion that China has influence on the international oil markets. The results imply that China should open up its domestic and imported oil markets, and also establish a well-functioning crude oil futures market, as they are essential for arbitrage and hedging strategies.     

Time lags in the pass-through of crude oil prices: big data evidence from the German gasoline market

This article investigates the pass-through of global Brent oil notations to fuel prices across the oligopoly of retail majors in Germany. We assemble a high-frequency panel data set that encompasses millions of price observations and allows us to distinguish effects by brand. Upon establishing a cointegrating relationship between fuel and crude oil prices using daily data, we estimate an ECM and find that (1) the pass-through of oil prices critically depends on the number of time lags included in the ECM; (2) strict adherence to classical information criteria for determining lag length yields extremely long pass-through durations and (3) the estimated impulse response functions are virtually identical across brands, irrespective of the lag count, suggesting a high degree of competition among brands.