城市交通与城市空间结构演变

通过回顾城市交通和城市空间结构的发展演变过程,研究通过城市交通引导城市空间结构健康"生长"的有效途径,提出通过公共交通引导城市发展的TOD模式,以及适合中国特色的和谐城市形态和城市交通.     

通过供求机制影响房价的因素研究

经济学中,需求和供给的许多影响因素都是密切相关,互相作用的。房地产市场的供给和需求共同决定了房价,这表明了影响需求和供给的因素也都是间接的通过供需影响房价。本文研究了几种主要的通过供求机制影响房价的因素,分析了其影响机制和影响程度。     

Urban transportation in Shanghai,China: problems and planning implications

Traffic congestion and transit service deterioration are becoming acute problems in China’s major cities. Based on a case study of Shanghai, this paper examines the growing gap between the supply of urban transportation facilities and the demand for travel, and discusses the planning implications. Because it will take great amounts of time and resources to transform the municipal transportation infrastructure into one suitable for high level mobility and motorization, the supply side is constrained for the short term. Therefore, planning research is directed primarily to the demand side. Transportation surveys indicate that travel demand has been increasing explosively through a combination of more trips, longer trips, and mode shifts away from walk and transit. Population growth, growth of family income, urban expansion and spatial reconfiguration, the emergence of labor and housing markets, and motorization are identified as the main causal factors. The probable future effects of these factors are analyzed and policy options are explored. The paper argues that enhancing accessibility without inducing mobility should be a basic guideline for policy-making and urban planning. Given the fast pace of urban development and the important role of the municipal government in locating urban activities, land-use planning can be a highly effective means for improving accessibility. Specific land-use strategies and complementary policies are proposed. Since Shanghai is in some important ways representative of large metropolises in the developing world, the case study is potentially valuable for other cities as well. Les embouteillages et la détérioration des services de transport deviennent des problèmes graves dans les villes importantes de Chine. Basé sur une étude de cas de Shangaï?, cet article examine le décalage grandissant entre la demande et la provision des moyens de transport, et discute les implications pour la planification. La transformation de l’infrastructure des transports municipaux afin qu'elle se prête à la mobilité et motorisation de haut niveau demandera un temps et des ressources considérables, et conséquemment l’approvisionnement est limité dans l'immédiat. La recherche sur la planification se concentre donc principalement sur la demande. Les sondages sur les transports indiquent que la demande de transport a beaucoup augmentéà cause d’une conjonction de trajets plus longs et plus nombreux, et de la baisse de la marche à pied et du transit. L’expansion de la population, l’augmentation des revenus familiaux, la croissance urbaine et la reconfiguration spatiale, l’apparition des marchés du travail et du logement, ainsi que la motorisation, sont identifiées comme les causes principales. Les résultats vraisemblables de ces facteurs pour le futur sont analysés et les options politiques sont explorées. Cet article soutient que l’amélioration de l’accessibilité sans inciter la mobilité devrait être une directive fondamentale pour les décisions politiques et pour la planification urbaine. Etant donné la rapidité du développement urbain et le rôle important de la municipalité dans l’établissement d’activités urbaines, la planification de l’aménagement du territoire peut être une méthode très efficace pour améliorer l’accessibilité. Des stratégies spécifiques d’aménagement du territoire et des directives complémentaires sont proposées. Parceque Shangaï est, à beaucoup d’égards, typique des grandes métropoles du monde en voie de développement, cette étude de cas est potentiellement intéressante pour d’autres villes.     

Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks

This article studies the co-movement and dynamics between price movements and transactions in the housing market using data for the period 1988–2008 from Finland. While the previous related literature examines the reactions of sales and prices to an interest rate shock only, this study investigates the responses to income and debt shocks as well. The empirical estimations show that the response of prices to demand shocks is substantially slower than that of sales. The estimated reactions of sales substantially differ from those reported in the earlier literature. The reaction patterns can create the kind of strong positive co-movement between price movements and sales volume and the kind of negative correlation between price level and sales that have been found in several housing markets.     

公共交通建设与城市可持续发展

分析了现有城市交通体系存在的问题和城市交通体系发展的可持续性,认为应在大中城市建设以轨道交通系统为主干的区域性综合公共交通体系,并提出城市交通体系可持续发展的建议.     

Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil

This paper studies the relationship between futures prices of natural gas and oil. Using wavelet analysis, our research reveals that, throughout the sampled period: (1) the prices of natural gas futures and oil futures have high covariance at high frequencies but not so much at low frequencies; (2) an increase in financialization of commodities commensurate with investors search for yield results in higher covariance between the futures prices of natural gas and oil; and (3) the volatility of neither time series consistently leads the other even at high frequencies.     

Goal programming solutions to transportation problems with variable supply and demand requirements

This article deals with goal programming as an aid to resolving transportation problems. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the use of goal programming as an approach to reducing total cost in transportation problems that possess variable supply and demand requirements. A generalized goal programming model is formulated and applied to a series of transportation problem situations based on the empirical data provided by a medium-size trucking firm. Comparison of the results demonstrates the cost advantage of using the goal programming model in place of the transportation method and integer interval linear programming.     

Reexamining the term structure of interest rates and the interwar demand for money

This paper reexamines whether the term structure of interest rates, rather than merely a single interest rate, should be included in the demand for money of the interwar era. In contrast to earlier work, we use cointegration techniques to model the equilibrium/error correction process, and find that a sufficiently rich dynamic model using a single interest rate has considerable explanatory power. Nevertheless, we conclude that the inclusion of the term structure may help to explain the turbulent monetary dynamics of the Depression era.     

Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices

We examine the relation between housing prices in an MSA and its urban economic base. We create and employ new forward-looking employment growth indices that measure the urban economic strength of an MSA and find that it accounts for a significant and sizeable portion of the house price movements in that MSA. We argue that the forward looking measure is an indicator of future agglomeration growth for the MSAs. We further partition the urban economic growth into growth by various industries and track the attribution of their growth to housing prices over time. We find that for some MSAs, home prices are driven by the same set of industries over time, whereas for others, home prices are driven by a totally new set of industries in the later quarters, due to the birth of new industries. We also analyze the impact of the diversification of an urban economic base on home price volatility and observe that diversification decreases home price volatility. The result has larger implications for urban policymakers in selecting the appropriate type of industries relative to their existing mix of industries.     

Elderly activity patterns and demand for transportation in a small city setting2

Although elderly in a small city setting leave their homes for approximately the same purposes and at the same frequency as elderly in metropolitan settings, they are much more dependent on the automobile. A higher proportion of the elderly in a small city drive, but driving status did not have a significant impact on frequency of travel or the spatial extent of travel. Health status was not an important factor when other variables were taken into account, but the older elderly did take fewer trips than the younger elderly. Income, sex and residential location had modest impacts on activity patterns, but the use of a well-established Dial-a-Ride system was minimal. Variation in activity patterns among the elderly in a small city suggested continuity of behavior, a modest decline with age and a strong preference for automobile travel or walking from conveniently located housing complexes.     

Effects of urban transportation system change on land prices in the setting of owner-occupied residence

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of transportation improvement on the land development process and land price structure in an owner-occupied residence setting. A dynamic model of household and landowner in which the role of land as an asset is explicitly considered is presented, and the process of land development and land price change after the announcement of transportation improvement is investigated. During the period between the announcement and the completion of urban transportation improvement, it is observed that the price of the land that is presently used for agriculture but will be developed in the future is higher than the agricultural land price.     

Bureaucracy, monopoly, and the demand for municipal services

A model of municipal budget allocation is constructed. It is assumed that municipalities elect mayors whose preferences reflect those of their constituents and that the bureaucrats heading the public agencies are private-wealth maximizers. Following Niskanen it is argued that bureaucrats exploit their mayors in order to maximize their salaries which implies that the price-elasticity for municipal services will be unitary. A price index is constructed, and the implication is tested on a sample of 81 U.S. cities over the period 1951–1973. The time-series estimates of price, population, and income elasticities are compared with those of Bergstrom and Goodman and Borcherding and Deacon.     

Relative prices and electronic substitution: Changes in household-level demand for postal delivery services from 1986 to 2004

This paper quantifies the extent to which the shift in the aggregate household-level demand for postal delivery services can be attributed to the appearance of alternative modes of communication versus the concomitant rise in postal prices. We find that both recent postal price increases and the penetration of personal computer technology among US households led to similar reductions in postal expenditure. We further find that a 5% postal price increase, such as the one introduced in January 2006 reduces revenue collected from US households by $215 million and imposes an aggregate welfare loss on US households of $333 million.     

2007年第一季度 城市地价动态监测报告

根据中国城市地价动态监测系统对全国重点地区和主要城市监测结果的分析，2007年第一季度我国主要城市地价状况如下——