Preparing for the professional futures field:: Observations from the UHCLC futures program

The futures field is an arena of increasing interest and activity. This article seeks to: (1) provide general information about key information sources for directed inquiry into futures studies; (2) sketch the origins and current status of the graduate program in Studies of the Future offered by the University of Houston at Clear Lake City—currently the largest and most comprehensive program of its kind; (3) Describe the methodology used in a recent strategic planning and program development project to update the UHCLC program; and (4) convey some guiding observations on teaching and research in futures studies, and on helping students find appropriate employment.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.     

Design museum futures: Catalysts for education

Taking the ambitious educational programmes and global collecting practices of 19th century industrial arts museums as case studies, this article analyses the role of design in shaping the future. The article examines the historical dynamics behind the construction of futures knowledge and futures expertise on the one hand, and current futures construction within design museum collections on the other. It tests strategic drivers and trends for the imagination and design of futures in the museum within the context of wider debates about the value of museums as sites of transdisciplinary practical learning. In this way the article also considers how cultural value is articulated through changing concepts of time and temporality embodied in material form. The final section examines the potential for social agency and activism within the design museum to foster critical reflection on the methods by which social institutions signal and shape directions of change. The article finds that in providing tools for the sharing as well as shaping of visions of the future, wider debates about the designed object in the museum have much to contribute to futures agency and literacy across disciplinary and professional boundaries.     

Reflections on bank–customer interactions in the new millennium

Having relatively recently embraced the concept of marketing, banks approach the new millennium operating in an increasingly competitive and fragmented marketplace with financially literate consumers. This competition combined with the prevailing low interest rate environment means that traditional banks with extensive branch networks are having their profitability margins squeezed. New technology presents opportunities for banks to become both more efficient (in terms of cost reduction) and more effective (in terms of customer profiling and informed targeted selling). As many groups of customers become more content with interacting with their bank through remote technological channels (eg phone, Internet) the implications for bank–customer relationships are important. Recent research shows that new ‘electronic banking’ channels, while being keenly embraced throughout the industry, are being pursued more for their cost-based advantages than for their business development or relationship management capabilities. Given that the key power of the Internet arguably rests in its interactive capabilities, and that relationships are predicated upon interactively, it seems appropriate to conclude with some key issues for future electronic banking strategy with particular emphasis on staff–customer relationships.     

Preparing for disaster: a comparative analysis of education for critical infrastructure collapse

This article explores policy approaches to educating populations for potential critical infrastructure collapse in five different countries: the UK, the US, Germany, Japan and New Zealand. ‘Critical infrastructure’ is not always easy to define, and indeed is defined slightly differently across countries – it includes entities vital to life, such as utilities (water, energy), transportation systems and communications, and may also include social and cultural infrastructure. The article is a mapping exercise of different approaches to critical infrastructure protection and preparedness education by the five countries. The exercise facilitates a comparison of the countries and enables us to identify distinctive characteristics of each country’s approach. We argue that contrary to what most scholars of security have argued, these national approaches diverge greatly, suggesting that they are shaped more by internal politics and culture than by global approaches.     

University education in futures studies: A Mark III survey

Following two earlier analyses (1970 and 1972), the Mark III survey of 1974 explores the extent and quality of university education in disciplines identifiable as future-oriented. The initial research revealed a somewhat stagnant situation. There is a decline in systematic futures courses at the university level, while there is now a stronger trend towards “futurisation” of conventional subjects on one hand, and to practice-oriented non-university educational activities on the other. The most significant developments appeared in long-range planning, policy studies and peace research. Representation of methodologies shows systems research as perhaps the most, and social sciences as a less important contributor. Identification of “futurism” and clarification of the concept remains the dominant problem.     

Setting the futures margin with price limits: the case for single-stock futures

Price limits are artificial boundaries established by regulators to establish the maximum price movement permitted in a single day. We propose using a new censoring method that incorporates the effect of price limits on the futures price distribution and investigates how to set an appropriate daily margin level using single-stock futures in Taiwan. We compare our estimations with those obtained using the method in Longin (J Bus 69:383–408, 1999). The results show that (1) the margin levels derived from the Longin method, which ignore price limits in the estimation, are lower than those in our censoring method; and (2) the legal margin for single-stock futures set at 13.5 % by the Taiwan Futures Exchange to avoid default risk appears to be too high.     

Solving the futures challenge - all you need is a 3LA

In this article, the author responds to a number of claims regarding the Integral Operating System, Causal Layered Analysis and the field of Futures. In particular, the author takes aim at those who claim that the reason the futures field has been lacking in influencing change towards more positive world is the result of not having an effective tool kit. To the contrary, the author suggests that the Futures community's failure at changing the existing ‘market driven paradigm’ has more to do with “… an unwillingness to get our hands dirty and to play in the same sandbox as our clients.” To that end the author targets in particular, a piece suggesting that making the Causal Layered Analysis more complex, exclusionary and ‘new and improved’ is the best way to make inroads into the economic liberalism model now in control. In counterpoint the author suggests that not only is this a flawed approach, it is unlikely to assist those with greatest need - the wider Futures Community.     

The need for change in accounting education: An educator survey

The Accounting Education Change Commission is leading an effort to change accounting education. Whether or not accounting faculty will support such change largely depends on whether or not they agree with the nature and extent of the needed change. This paper reports the results of a survey of 984 accounting faculty undertaken to determine views of accounting faculty concerning the issues involved in the accounting education change effort. Results indicate that although overall there is wide agreement that change is needed, there is significant disagreement over both the extent and form of that change. Evidence suggests that differences in the demographics of the teaching environment and differences in faculty background are associated with differences in perceptions of the extent and form of needed change.     

Dreams and expectations: Young people's expected and preferred futures and their significance for education

A recent Australian study sought to obtain a better understanding of what young people expect and want of their country in 2010, and to assess the value of scenarios as an investigative tool. The study had two components: a series of eight scenario-development workshops involving a total of 150 young people, most aged between 15 and 24 and from a variety of backgrounds; and a national opinion poll of 800 Australians in this age group. The study suggests there is a wide gap between young Australians' expected and preferred futures. Most do not expect life to be better in 2010, either nationally or globally, but foresee a continuation, and even worsening, of today's problems. Their dreams for Australia are of a society that places less emphasis on the individual, material wealth and competition, and more on community and family, the environment and cooperation.     

Revisiting a futures studies project—‘Reflections on 1985’

In 1962, a futures studies group was launched in France on behalf of the Commissariat au Plan, reporting directly to the French Prime Minister. The group aimed at ‘studying, on the basis of future-shaping elements, what should be known right now about 1985 France’. This paper revisits that important and original futures studies project, which encapsulated efficiently the dominant values and beliefs of a Western country at a turning point of its political and economical history.In its first part, this note recalls the French context in 1964, the frame of mind, and methodology of the group. Then the main findings of the Group 1985 are outlined, be it evolutions that inspired hope (a wealthier economy, improved living conditions), and also fears attached to the future (individual may face new dependencies and higher pressures, while some shortages could appear), which should be averted thanks to active policies in the fields of education, European unity, scientific research, or public administration reform. Last, this paper analyses both the strengths and weaknesses of the Group 1985 report, drawing lessons that remain valuable for contemporary studies on the future of a whole country.In 1962, Pierre Massé, then Commissaire au Plan, set up a futures study Group chaired by Pierre Guillaumat. The Group published in 1964 a report entitled ‘Reflections on 1985’ which was a stimulating futures studies work. ALEPH thought fruitful to revisit this document.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

Preparing underprepared students for higher education and beyond: the development and implementation of an integrated project

A current problem faced in South Africa is that university graduates are weak and underprepared for the work environment. The purpose of this study was to assist students in bridging the aforementioned gap and to ease the transition from theory to practice. The aim of the study was to critically analyse the development and implementation of the integrated project. This study targeted first-year (Extended Curriculum Programme) students, who had been identified as being underprepared for higher education. The factors that initiated the design and development of the integrated project were the South African Qualifications Authority, Critical Cross Field Outcomes and the University of Technology's National Diploma in Cost and Management Accounting exit level outcome, which promote lifelong learning. The integrated project was an authentic assessment which required students to transfer their theoretical knowledge obtained in the classroom to assist small businesses within the community. Academics should be encouraged to use authentic problems in the designing of assessments which will promote student-centredness and lifelong learning. With the continuous engagement of an integrated project, these first-year underprepared students will be better equipped to adjust and excel in the work environment.     

Our posthuman futures and education: Homo Zappiens,Cyborgs, and the New Adam

This paper is a philosophical reflection on the historical development of ideas about the nature of human beings and what this development may mean for the future of and in education. In terms of the causal layered analysis developed by Sohail Inayatullah, it is an investigation on the levels of worldviews and archetypes. Ideas of human nature describe a trajectory from supranature (theological and mystical) via nature (philosophical and mechanical) to subnature (digital). With the development of psychological science about a century ago, so called psycho-utopian visions of a better society arose, based on the transformation of the human mind. Such visions seem today to have been replaced by digital utopias, based on the development of superfast computers and the enhancement of brain capacity through neural implants. The latter is a prominent feature of so called transhumanism. The transhumanist ideas of Ray Kurzweil are briefly presented and contrasted with traditional religious and spiritual ideas. Of special interest in this context is Rudolf Steiner's philosophical–spiritual understanding of human being and development, which underpins Steiner Waldorf education. There is an existential choice confronting us today: whether to see humans as essentially spiritual beings, or as highly complex bio-computers. This choice has obvious ramifications for education as well as for the future of human being in general.     

Evolution of education: From weak signals to rich imaginaries of educational futures

This paper proposes that all aspects of educational futures are affected by the new thinking patterns and ways of knowing that have been emerging over the last hundred years as part of the parallel processes of evolution of human consciousness and major global societal change.Throughout the 20th century, significant developments can be mapped in most, if not all, of the major academic disciplines. Secondly, the move to transcend disciplinary specialisation, via inter-, multi-, and trans-disciplinary approaches is strengthening. Thirdly, at a higher order theoretical level, these developments are explicitly theorized in the discourses associated with postformal reasoning, integral theory and planetary consciousness. In spite of all these developments in other disciplines and knowledge fields, the institution of mass public education, with its underpinning industrial worldview, has been pretty static since its inception two hundred years ago. Finally, the paper identifies three minor, but significant, waves of evolutionary emergence in education over the last hundred years that if articulated and nurtured could strengthen the development of evolutionary pedagogies for the 21st century.     

Cross-commodity hedging for illiquid futures: Evidence from China's base metal futures market

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of cross-commodity hedging between China's base metal spot and futures markets, using daily data of metal spot and futures prices in the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The main findings suggest that, compared to unhedged spot portfolios, a naïve hedge increases risk exposure, while static and dynamic hedges can significantly reduce the risk of holding spot assets. Zinc futures and nickel futures outperform other base metal futures in individually hedging lead spot and tin spot respectively, while copper futures constitute a moderately optimal instrument to hedge both lead and tin spot assets.     

Forecasts or fallacies: Two issues for futures research on the internet

This paper explores the idea of futures research online, and considers whether two issues in particular — high rates of change, and complexity — pose a significant problem to the success of internet-orientated futures research. In particular, these two potential problems will be considered from the perspective of new developments within futures research frameworks and methodologies.     

Sustainable futures: policies for global development

Global sustainable development is the overarching challenge for social and economic policy today. The paper elaborates the concept of sustainable development, identifies some of the levers and policies that might help attain it, describes a modeling system used for analysis, and presents the results of evaluating the impacts of policies and an integrated scenario built upon them.Particular attention is given to measures related to research, technology development and the wider use of networking technologies, and to the hypothesis that investments in these areas offer a ‘triple-win’ opportunity for growth, greater equity and resource-efficiency. We show that the combination of policy initiatives in these areas can offer a valuable alternative and/or complement to constraints on businesses and life-styles that are commonly proposed for sustainable development.