农村社会突发事件表现形态与基本特征

农村社会突发事件既包括大型农业自然灾害,也包括突发性的紧急事件或危机事件。本文分析了农村社会突发事件中紧急事件、危机事件、灾害事件和群体性事件等四种基本形态的个性特征,分别指出了各种突发事件处置不当可能造成的严重社会危害后果,并提出了相应的识别、应急及善后处置对策。     

农村社会突发事件基本特征分析

农村社会突发事件既包括大型农业自然灾害,也包括突发性的紧急事件或危机事件.本文分析了农村社会突发事件中紧急事件、危机事件、灾害事件和群体性事件等四种基本形态的个性特征,分别指出了各种突发事件处置不当可能造成的严重社会损害后果,并提出了相应的识别、应急及善后处置对策.     

突发事件的预警和防范

突发事件的预警和防范张厥新信用社系统突发事件是指在短促的时间内发生在信用社整个业务活动中出人意料的，不平常而具有影响的事件，它具有突发性、非正常性，巨大影响性的特征。突发事件会给信用社业务及其工作人员心理造成较大的影响，对社会治安秩序产生较大干扰。目...     

理解不可抗力免责规则注意事项

不可抗力是一个法律用语,是指买卖合同签订后,不是由于合同当事人的过失或疏忽,而是由于发生了合同当事人无法预见、无法预防、无法避免和无法控制的事情,以致不能履行或不能如期履行合同,发生意外事件的一方可以免除履行合同的责任或推迟履行合同。因此,从相应的规定中可以看出,不可抗力是一项免责条款,是当事人依法享有对违约、侵权行为的免责抗辩权,是当事人主张免除责任的法定理由。不可抗力条款中所指不能克服的客观情况,包括自然灾害和社会事件,如地震、台风、洪水、海啸等自然灾害,战争、海盗、罢工、政府行为等社会事件。在世界各国…     

母牛过肥过瘦对繁殖有哪些影响

正母牛的营养掌控对繁殖有很大帮助,过度和不良都会对繁殖造成不利的影响。营养过度的情况下,繁殖母牛容易肥胖,表现为难产。营养不良的牛消瘦,不发情或受孕后出现妊娠中断;膘情很差的怀孕牛产下的犊牛虚弱、体重很轻。能量营养供应不足,对怀孕母牛分娩后再次配种有很大影响,表现为不发情或配种后不受孕。     

国际国内原油价格成分分解及比较分析

文章采用X12和HP滤波的方法,对国际国内油价序列进行了分解比较,得出四个结论.一是国内原油价格反映了我国自身的需求特点;二是高油价时期,市场对突发事件的反应更加强烈和敏感;三是通常情况下我国油价的不规则成分小于国际油价,但在突发事件时期,特别是在高油价时期比国际油价表现得更加剧烈;四是市场在资源配置中的基础性作用正逐步显现.     

美国石油战略解析

石油被喻为"工业的血液".石油价格的暴涨或暴跌,石油供应的畅通或中断,都会对世界各国经济产生重大影响.     

证券市场突发事件与政府防范证券市场风险的研究

一、证券市场突发事件的定义证券市场突发事件是指那些由证券市场以外的因素引发的、能够激活证券市场中显在或潜在的风险源、通过市场的风险传导机制已经或可能引发证券市场系统风险、给证券市场造成极大破坏的紧急事件。上述定义包含了下面几个方面的要点:(1)证券市场突发事件的判断依据是该事件已经或可能引发证券市场系统风险并给证券市场造成极大破坏;(2)突发事件是证券市场遭受极大破坏的外因和导火线;(3)证券市场中各种风险源是证券市场遭受极大破坏的内因;(4)突发事件作用于市场内部的风险源而引发系统风险,是“外因通过内因起作用…     

世界石油供应格局演变及价格走势分析

世界石油资源地域分布极不平衡,受资源丰度、勘探进展及开发强度等因素影响,世界石油供应格局发生了深刻变化。目前世界石油供应多元化的格局不仅形成,而且正不断得到强化。在供应多元化的基础上,石油市场构成已从垄断性向竞争性转变,供求关系将在决定油价方面发挥积极作用,但投机行为仍将左右国际市场油价变动的步伐和幅度,一定范围内的油价波动将在所难免。     

高校学生防火安全知识和火场逃生能力的相关性研究

在高等教育逐渐普及的今天,一些影响学生生命财产安全的事件频繁上演,这不利于学校的建设。各类突发事件的发生,尤其是学校发生的失火事件,给学校和家长都造成了影响。由于高校学生防火安全意识差,在面临人多空间少的紧急疏散危险时,往往造成恐慌以至于贻误疏散时机。研究表明,高校学生的防火安全知识和火场逃生能力呈正相关性,学生对火灾这种突发事件所具备的防范常识对逃生意识和逃生能力具有很大的影响。为此,本课题通过对防火安全知识和火场逃生能力的相关性进行研究,从而保障在校学生的生命健康,促进校园消防安全的稳步发展。     

WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND CRUDE OIL PRICES TO THE YEAR 2000

This paper takes an overall look at world energy demand forecasts contained in the recent literature. From the ‘consensus’ data the paper suggests a non-communist world primary energy demand in 2000 of about 9,000 million tonnes oil equivalent. The focus then shifts to the demand for, and supply of, OPEC oil and it is argued that persistent excess demand will characterise this market for the remainder of the century. Observation of models of OPEC pricing behaviour suggests they are poor reflections of real world oil markets. As such, judgement rather than explicit modelling is used to suggest a world crude oil scenario in which oil prices rise at 10% p.a.     

国际油价暴涨背后中国石油安全战略探析

石油作为一种重要的战略性基础能源,对一国国家经济安全产生重要影响。甚至使某些西方大国不惜动用武力来试图控制国外的石油资源。我国目前面临的状况是:国际油价高企,在强劲经济的拉动下我国石油需求持续增长,而国内原油产量增长缓慢,供求失衡不断扩大,对国际石油供应的担忧也日益严重。文章就国内目前高油价对经济的不利影响、石油供求现状、石油进口价格、风险等问题做了分析,并提出了大力开展石油期货贸易,建立石油储备体系,提高能源利用效率等项政策建议。     

The supply response of aggregate agricultural output in Jamaica

A dominant theme in the development literature is that individual agricultural products responds to price incentives, not because of shifts Between products, but that total agricultural output is not responsive to price. The econometric evidence tor Jamaica shows that this presumption is not valid. The paper begins by reviewing the growth experience of the Jamaican economy. It then analyzes the trends in agricultural production. The remainder of the paper provides the econometric estimates of broad agricultural output to price. The empirical evidence shows that aggregate agricultural output is responsive to price, but it will take lime for agricultural production to materialize. A summary of the published estimates of the supply response for individual crops is also presented.     

The War in Ukraine,Food Security and the Role for Europe

Food-security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low-income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better-targeted support for the low-income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.     

应对能源安全挑战 构建能源安全体系

当前的能源安全问题是包括能源供应安全、能源需求安全、能源价格安全、能源使用安全在内的综合性风险与威胁。中国能源安全将面临:产业结构重型化趋势下能源需求增加的挑战;能源结构不合理,环境压力增大的挑战;争夺能源定价权的能源金融市场发展不足的挑战;能源价格倒挂下过度消费的挑战。为此,应从以下方面着手寻求应对策略:降低对石油能源的依存度,实施能源供应多元化战略;降低对中东石油的依存度,实施石油能源来源多元化;实施石油运输通道多元化战略,规避石油运输主要依靠水路,主要依靠马六甲海峡所带来的风险;增加话语权,力争定价权;促进各国能源合作,共建全球能源安全体系。     

COVID-19 and the Canadian cattle/beef sector: Some preliminary analysis

Canada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now, the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID-19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow–calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market.     

An Evaluation of Indian Government Rice Policy in Tamil Nadu

The Indian government procures rice from wholesalers or producers at a price below the market price and then distributes it to low-income consumers at a subsidized price. This paper uses a simulataneous equations econometric model to evaluate the effects of this policy on supply/demand of rice in the state of Tamil Nadu, between 1956 and 1985. Results show that production is more responsive to power for irrigation and fertilizer prices than to output prices. Because supply is inelastic, producers bear the burden of the ‘tax’ imposed by procurement even though rice is procured from the wholesaler. Rice distributed by the government displaces rice demanded in the open market, and thus the government distribution of rice has not increased the total consumption of rice.     

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.     

新冠肺炎对生猪产业影响及应对策略

我国生猪产业受到2018年开始暴发的非洲猪瘟冲击后,目前基础产能正在持续恢复。由于地方政府在落实新冠肺炎疫情防控和保障畜牧业生产等方面有效措施不多,饲料和屠宰企业开工不足,省市际间和乡村道路不畅,各类生产资料运输遇到困难。生猪养殖模式、规模和组织水平均影响养殖主体应对突发事件的能力。生猪生产和流通在短期受到严重冲击,致使产能恢复速度放缓,猪价波动风险加大。下一步各地方政府应尽快出台扎实有效的措施,疏通交通物流,同时要加强疫病防控,提高复产支持力度,提升组织化水平,建立应急防御机制,确保生猪保供稳价目标的实现。