The persistence of earnings per share

The persistence of innovations to accounting earnings per share, EPS, has important implications for equity valuation, yet it remains a largely neglected subject. This paper employs various empirical tests in order to measure the persistence of shocks to EPS for the S&P 500 index. Within the I(0)/I(1) paradigm the empirical evidence rejects the I(1) specification, supporting instead a trend-stationary representation. When fractional orders of integration are considered, the results indicate that the detrended series is long memory (d  >  0) and mean reverting (d < 1). The responses decay slowly to zero, albeit 50 quarters after an initial shock the responses remain significantly different from zero. Likewise, the variance ratio evidence suggests that the effect of a shock persists over time spans characteristic of the business cycle.

The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions

We examine the impact of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CPS) forecast revisions on the market for credit default swaps. We find that while the issuance of both EPS and CPS forecast revisions are inversely associated with changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads, cash flow forecast revisions have a larger effect. We demonstrate that the relationship between CPS forecast revisions and CDS spreads tends to be stronger in cases of financial distress. We provide evidence that cash flow forecasts dominate earnings forecasts in some situations and that participants in the CDS market discriminate between analysts' forecast revisions and recommendation changes.     

Learning and incentive: A study on analyst response to pension underfunding

There is a long-standing debate on whether sell-side analysts learn from their experience to improve earnings forecast skills. This study shows that incentive is an important factor for understanding the “learning by doing” effect by analysts. We examine analysts’ response to a complex type of information – corporate pension underfunding. Pension underfunding negatively impacts future earnings and analysts on average underreact to such information in their earnings forecasts. More importantly, when there is a strong incentive for analysts to deliver accurate forecasts, analyst learning effectively reduces their underreaction to pension underfunding information. On the other hand, when such an incentive is absent, the analyst learning effect is not discernible in the data. Further evidence suggests that analyst learning and incentive jointly reduce stock market mispricing associated with corporate pension underfunding.     

Quality of reported earnings by Chinese firms: The influence of ownership structure

This paper examines the influence of ownership structure on earnings quality of firms listed on the Chinese Stock Exchanges. We empirically test four contemporary earnings quality measures, including volatility of earnings, variability of earnings over cash flows, correlations between accruals and cash flows, and level of discretionary accruals, for 1438 firms listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange. We find that although state-owned firms are bigger in size and appear more profitable based on reported earnings; privately-owned firms, foreign-owned firms and society-owned firms outperform the state-controlled firms in earnings quality; and foreign-owned firms have the highest earnings quality among all types of ownership groups. We find that there is not much difference in earnings quality between collectively-owned firms and state-owned firms and employee-owned firms exercise least discretion in earnings management. The findings in particular will have direct policy implications for the China Securities Regulatory Committee (CSRC).     

Family control, board independence and earnings management: Evidence based on Hong Kong firms

In this study, we document that independent corporate boards of Hong Kong firms provide effective monitoring of earnings management, which suggests that despite differences in institutional environments, corporate board independence is important to ensure high-quality financial reporting. The findings also show that the monitoring effectiveness of corporate boards is moderated in family-controlled firms, either through ownership concentration or the presence of family members on corporate boards. The results based on firms reporting small earnings increases provide additional support for our finding that the monitoring effectiveness of independent corporate boards is moderated in family-controlled firms.     

The influence of earnings per share on capital issues: some evidence from UK companies

This paper investigates the simple hypothesis that when companies issue more capital, they have a tendency to select the type of capital, all other things being equal, which results in the higher short-term earnings per share (eps). The methodology employs probit analysis to test the hypothesis that the form of issue selected was that which gave the higher eps after controlling for other factors such as leverage and industry classification. The results lead us to conclude that there is evidence in capital issues of functional fixation on eps.     

Effects of family ownership and family management on the performance of entrepreneurial firms

Extending past research, this paper proposes that the quadratic inverse-U relationship between family ownership and the performance of entrepreneurial firms when moderated by the presence of family management and external blockholding. Specifically, it proposes that both factors exacerbate the decline in performance when the proportion of family ownership in entrepreneurial firms remains high. The proposed hypotheses are tested on ten years of panel data from a sample of European firms. Analysis of data supports the hypotheses. Implications for the theory and practice of entrepreneurial firms are discussed.     

The effects of trading rights and ownership structures on the informativeness of accounting earnings: Evidence from China’ split share structure reform

This paper examines how the removal of trading restrictions and ownership structures affect earnings informativeness by investigating the changes in the earnings-return relation around China’s split share structure reform. I find the reform has a negative impact on the relationship between controlling shareholders’ ownership and earnings informativeness, which is consistent with the idea that the removal of trading restrictions gives controlling shareholders incentives to influence the stock price through managing earnings. I also find that earnings informativeness decreases with the reduction in controlling shareholders’ ownership. This dilution effect is more significant for firms with non-state controlling shareholders or with controlling shareholders that are not monitored by other large shareholders. The results are consistent with the notion that controlling shareholders provide less informative earnings in response to the dilution of their ownership to avoid the constraints arising from the increased monitoring by outside investors.     

The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components

This study examines biases in stock prices and financial analysts' earnings forecasts. These biases take the form of systematic overweighting or underweighting of the persistence characteristics of cash versus accrual earnings components. Our evidence suggests that stock prices tend to overweight and financial analysts tend to underweight these persistence characteristics. Furthermore, we find that analysts' underweighting attenuates stock price overweighting. However, we find little evidence that the overweighting in stock prices attenuates analyst underweighting. This study brings a new perspective to the literature regarding the disciplining role of financial analysts in capital markets.     

Theory, Pragmatism and Conservatism in Reflecting the Effects of Warrants on Diluted EPS

The American, British and Canadian professional accounting bodies have prescribed methods for calculating earnings per share which are materially different. The aim of this paper is to determine which of the three methods is most compatible with finance theory with particular reference to the effects of dilution. Only the Canadian method can be shown to be theoreticaly sound.     

Mandatory CSR disclosure and analyst forecast properties: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Based on a quasi-natural experiment that mandates a subset of listed firms to issue standalone corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, we examine whether mandatory CSR disclosure improves analysts’ information environment. We focus on two properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts: forecast error and forecast dispersion. We find that the mandatory issuance of standalone CSR reports is related to less forecast error and less dispersed forecasts, and the effect varies with the firm-level information environment and province-level marketization. Additional tests show that the improvement in forecast properties is mainly driven by CSR reports that i) are of high quality and ii) contain more long-term-oriented information than other CSR reports. Our findings provide evidence that mandatory CSR disclosure plays an important informational role for financial analysts.     

The impact of SFAS No. 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms: Evidence from the initial year of implementation

This study examines the impact of SFAS 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms. I expect a relative improvement in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy for merging firms versus non-merging peers after SFAS 141 adoption. I restrict the post-SFAS 141 sample to the initial year of SFAS 141 implementation. This research design disentangles effects of SFAS No. 141 from those of SFAS No. 142. The evidence from analysis of 48 pairs of merging and matched non-merging firms is consistent with expectations and confirms the increase in earnings predictability for merging firms versus their non-merging peers post-SFAS 141. Results of additional tests suggest that earnings predictability improvement more likely follows from extended disclosure requirements and the other changes in the Purchase Method (“better purchase” issue) than from the elimination of Poolings-of-Interest (“purchase vs. pooling” issue).     

Institutional incentives and earnings quality: The influence of government ownership in China

We examine the effect of government ownership and its associated institutional incentives on firms’ earnings quality using a sample of Chinese firms during the transitional economy between 1998 and 2005 when state-owned and non-state-owned firms were traded in the stock exchanges. We find that, in China, state-owned firms exhibit a lower earnings quality property than non-state-owned firms. Particularly, state-owned firms have more earnings smoothing, more frequently managed earnings toward target, less frequent timely recognition of losses, and less value relevance, relative to non-state-owned firms. We also find that state-owned firms have significantly higher discretionary current accruals than non-state-owned firms. We conclude that the Chinese government, through its controlling ownership of state-owned firms, creates incentives and regulatory backing for self-serving purposes that negatively influence these listed firms’ financial reporting.     

Trading based on forecasts of earnings per share: A test of the efficient market hypothesis

In this paper the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis is tested with a trading rule based on Box-Jenkins forecasts of earnings per share numbers. The quarterly earnings per share series are modeled for a number of firms. The models are updated quarter by quarter and investments are made in the stocks with the largest forecasted growth rates for the next quarter. The risk-adjusted performance of such a strategy is shown to be inconsistant with semi-strong market efficiency.     

The impact of securities regulation on the earnings properties of European cross-listed firms

The objective of this study was to determine if the securities regulation in a foreign country is related to the earnings quality of European firms cross-listed in Europe. The study compared the post-listing earnings quality of 112 European firms cross-listed in 13 European stock exchanges during 1989–2001 to those of a controlled sample of non-cross-listed firms. Earnings quality was assessed by the use of reporting discretion to manage earnings. The regulatory strictness was represented by three indices of securities regulation.Empirical results provide some support to a positive association between earnings quality and the foreign securities regulation, suggesting that the foreign regulatory requirements have little or no effect on the reported earnings of European firms cross-listed in European exchanges.     

Corporate governance in family firms,learning and reaction to recession: Evidence from Italy

This paper focuses on the interaction between internal and external factors explaining performance of small and medium-sized family firms. We used framework foresight to suggest how learning and internal factors such as CEO’s origin, tenure and turnover, could affect the firm’s reactions to one particular external factor, economic recession. The paper draws on empirical observations of a large sample of small and medium family firms operating in Italy between 2002 and 2011 to identify the baseline future, an expected future for these firms. This analysis may be of interest to both management scholars and practitioners. We hope to contribute to the debate on how internal and external factors interact to affect firm success, measured as sales growth. The implications for the future viability of an economic system based on family businesses are straightforward, as the turbulence and instability of the economic environment has grown significantly in the last decade, especially in more developed countries. Whether the ability of a company to adapt and survive to negative shocks depends on its governance provides a rationale for exploring alternative perspectives on the competitiveness of the economic system and the ability of different owners to cope with future negative events.     

The role of reconciliation quality in limiting mispricing of non-GAAP earnings announcements by EURO STOXX firms

This empirical study investigates the relationship between the market mispricing of pro forma earnings announcements and the degree to which pro forma earnings are quantitatively reconciled with GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings. For a sample of EURO STOXX Fixed Index companies we find evidence of positive abnormal returns related to pro forma earnings disclosures, and, upon further analyses, conclude that this evidence is generally more consistent with the notion of market mispricing than omitted risk factors. Moreover, when reconciliation quality is controlled, market mispricing is found to be prevalent and pronounced only for low quality reconciliations. This finding suggests that reconciliation is important in reducing market mispricing.     

Managing impressions using distorted graphs of income and earnings per share: The role of memory

This study investigates the role that memory plays in interpreting and using distorted graphs that mislead the user of the financial information. It draws upon the literatures concerning memory, impression management and effective graph design. In order to examine whether reliance on memory for distorted graphs leads to different impressions of the data, we conduct an experiment in which we manipulate the type of graph distortion and whether memory of the graph is required by the decision. We present evidence that individuals receiving misleading graphs are more likely to misinterpret underlying data trends and that memory moderates the effect depending upon the type of distortion used to mislead the individual. The resulting data interpretation errors lead to more positive judgments and investment decisions than would otherwise be warranted. Thus our findings suggest that graph distortions mislead users into incorrect conclusions about the underlying data and that these interpretation errors persist in memory and affect judgments and investment decisions. We extend the prior literature, which has not considered the direct effects of graph interpretation or the effects of memory, and provide a baseline for investigating the effects of memory on impression management.     

Impact of family dominance on monitoring of earnings management by audit committees: Evidence from Hong Kong

This study examines whether the establishment of audit committees by Hong Kong firms would constrain earnings management, especially in firms with family-dominated corporate boards, a condition unique to Hong Kong. The study uses the methodology of three-stage (3SLS) regression analyses to control for endogeneity among earnings management, voluntarily established audit committee, and corporate board size. The results of regression analyses based on 523 observations for the period of 1999-2000 when the audit committees were first established by Hong Kong firms show that overall audit committees play a significant role in constraining earnings management even in the business environment of higher ownership concentration. The effectiveness of audit committees is, however, significantly reduced when family members are present on corporate boards, especially when family members dominate the corporate board.