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We compare the sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions based on extreme bounds analysis to a more direct specification testing approach using non-nested hypotheses tests. The results suggest that those specifications that are adequate are also those that include two of the only few conditioning variables that are found to be robust, namely the standard deviation of inflation and the standard deviation of domestic credit. First Version Received: November 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001  相似文献   

3.
《Economics Letters》1987,25(3):259-261
Theil (1987) recently developed distribution-free Monte Carlo testing procedures for demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry which do not use asymptotic theory. In this paper we introduce a similar procedure to test preference independence. The application of this procedure is illustrated with Dutch data.  相似文献   

4.
We extend the sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions of Levine and Renelt (1992) by introducing a semi-parametric formulation of their regression function. Our results differ from theirs in how certain policy variables affect growth rates. We find that distortion variables, such as the standard deviation of gross domestic credit and inflation and real exchange rate distortions, have a robust negative effect on growth. JEL Classification: O47, C14
Une analyse de sensibilité non-linéaire des régressions de croissance pour divers pays. Les auteurs utilisent une formulation semi-paramétrique des équations de croissance de Levine et Renelt (1992) pour divers pays afin de rendre leur analyse de sensibilité plus compréhensive. Les résultats different de ceux de Levine et Renelt en ce que certaines variables de politique affectent les taux de croissance. On découvre que certains facteurs comme l'écart type du crédit intérieur brut et de l'inflation, et des distorsions des taux de change réels, ont un effet négatif important sur la croissance.  相似文献   

5.
This paper investigates the stability of relationships between inflation and changes in employer cost for labor using tests based on the null hypothesis of no cointegration (Gregory and Hansen (1996a)) as well as tests based on the null hypothesis of cointegration (Hansen (1992)). In addition to specifications which include wages or unit labor cost, employment cost indices for compensation and wages are used to eliminate composition bias over the business cycle. Empirical results support stability and fully-modified estimates are obtained using the semiparametric approach of Phillips (1995). In contrast to studies which have found only one-way causality, this paper presents empirical evidence of feedback between inflation and employer cost for labor, consistent with an expectations-adjusted Phillips's Curve. First version received: July 1997/final version received: September 1998  相似文献   

6.
    
The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but (Ciccone and Jarociński, 2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard ‘agnostic’ approach is too sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical arguments and empirical illustration, drawing on more recent vintages of the PWT, and introducing an approach that limits the degree of agnosticism.  相似文献   

7.
In a recent article Bai (2013a) proposes a new factor analytical method (FAM) for the estimation of fixed-effects dynamic panel data models, which has the unique and very useful property that it is asymptotically bias free. In this paper we provide Monte Carlo evidence of the good small-sample performance of FAM, that complement Bai’s theoretical study.  相似文献   

8.
This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in the paper incorporate this effect in a more flexible way than previous work. Estimates of the models imply sizeable marginal product differentials, and indicate that the reallocation of labor makes a significant contribution to the international variation in productivity growth.  相似文献   

9.
Based on a Monte Carlo simulation, this study compares the finite sample performance of five of the most widely used methods for estimating the number of dynamic factors. The simulation results show that although the performance is affected by the data generating process, the methods proposed by Hallin and Li?ka (J Am Stat Assoc 102(478):603–617, 2007) and Bai and Ng (Bus Econ Stat 25(1):52–60, 2007) generally outperform the others. Specifically, Amengual and Watson’s (J Bus Econ Stat 25(1):91–96, 2007) method is sensitive to cross-sectional correlation, and Breitung and Pigorsch’s (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 75(1):23–36, 2013) estimator is sensitive to the overestimation of the number of static factors. The results of this study are further supported by an empirical application to a Chinese macroeconomic dataset.  相似文献   

10.
    
The use of the perpetual inventory method for the construction of education data per country leads to systematic measurement error. This paper analyzes its effect on growth regressions. We suggest a methodology for correcting this error. The standard attenuation bias suggests that using these corrected data would lead to a higher coefficient. Our regressions reveal the opposite. We discuss why this is the case.  相似文献   

11.
A Monte Carlo method to compute asymptotic standard errors of dynamic multipliers is proposed. It is applied to Hein's Model I to find standard error of interim multipliers of taxes on nominal income.  相似文献   

12.
根据全生命周期成本理论和上海市统计数据,分析维修成本、运营成本等指标的变化趋势和概率分布,在估计生态住宅节能率分布的基础上,模拟计算生态住宅和非生态住宅全生命周期成本,得到成本的期望和置信区间。最后,计算生态住宅的平均建筑节能投资回收期,并从经济角度分析生态住宅是否真的节约成本,带来效益,为购房者及开发商提供选择与判断的依据。  相似文献   

13.
This paper proposes a methodology which improves the computational efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation approach of value at risk (VaR) estimates. Principal components analysis is used to reduce the number of relevant sources of risk driving the portfolio dynamics. Moreover, large deviations techniques are used to provide an estimate of the minimum number of price scenarios to be simulated to attain a given accuracy. Numerical examples are provided and show the good performance of the methodolgy proposed.
(J.E.L.: C15, G1).  相似文献   

14.

This paper studies the sensitivity of adjustment coefficients to various structural breaks in a cointegrated vector autoregressive system. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted in a recursive manner to examine fluctuations of finite-sample estimates of the coefficients. The study reveals the wide-ranging influences of breaks on the estimates, which can give rise to inference for spurious time-varying adjustment coefficients, although the underlying true coefficients are stable and time-invariant. It is thus advisable to be cautious about seemingly time-varying adjustment coefficients when analyzing time series data subject to structural breaks.

  相似文献   

15.
The paper discusses the issues of heterogeneity and stability of cross-country growth regressions that have been used to study the problem of convergence. Almost all studies use pooled regressions. The paper considers the issue of pooling under heterogeneity using a hierarchical Bayesian method and estimates growth regressions for different panels studied in earlier papers, and different regimes. The conclusion is that the convergence rates are higher than those obtained from pooled regressions under the assumption of homogeneity and that there is instability over time in the relationships.  相似文献   

16.
We measure the impact of individuals' looks on life satisfaction and happiness. Using six data sets, from Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we construct beauty measures in a number of different ways. Beauty raises happiness: A one standard-deviation change in beauty generates about 0.08 standard deviations of additional satisfaction/happiness among men, 0.07 among women. The finding is robust to a rare opportunity to measure it using an instrumental variables approach. Accounting for a wide variety of covariates, particularly educational, marital, and labor-market outcomes that might be affected by beauty, the gross effects are roughly halved, with small reductions arising from the impact of beauty on monetary outcomes.  相似文献   

17.
In a model where agents use their labour/education choice to adjust their consumption profile over time, I show that the impact of uncertainty on growth depends, critically, on agents’ attitudes towards risk, reflected by the coefficient of relative risk aversion. In this respect, the well known result from the literature on ‘saving under uncertainty’ can be extended into a broader context, whereby the intertemporal profile of consumption is determined via human capital accumulation rather than saving and physical capital investment.  相似文献   

18.
Empirical factor demand analysis is a topic in which a choice must be made among several competing non-nested functional forms. Each of the commonly used factor demand systems, such as Translog, Generalized Leontief, Quadratic, and Generalized McFadden, exhibits statistical inadequacy when tested for the absence of residual autocorrelation, homoskedasticity and normality. This does not necessarily imply that the whole system is invalid, especially if misspecification affects only a subset of the equations forming the entire system. Since there is no theoretical guidance on how to select the model which is most able to capture the relevant features of the data, formal testing procedures can be useful. In the literature, paired and joint univariate non-nested tests (e.g. Davidson-MacKinnon's J and P tests, Bera-McAleer test and Barten-McAleer test) have been discussed at length, whereas virtually no attention has been paid to multivariate non-nested tests. In this paper we show how multivariate non-nested tests can be derived from their univariate counterparts, and we apply these tests to compare alternative factor demand systems. Since the outcome of a non-nested test is likely to be influenced by the type of misspecification affecting the competing models, we investigate the empirical performance of a multivariate non-nested test using new Monte Carlo experiments. The competing models are compared indirectly via a statistically adequate model which is considered as if it were the DGP. Under such circumstances, the distribution of the non-nested test of an incorrect null, when it is evaluated at the DGP, tends to be closer to the distribution of the test under the correct null, at least in small samples. A non-nested test is expected to select the model which is closest to the DGP. Moreover, we investigate the empirical behaviour of a non-nested test when the DGP has, in turn, autoregressive, heteroskedastic and non-normal errors. Finally, we provide some suggestions for the applied researcher. First version received: November 1999/Final version received: May 2001  相似文献   

19.
In the context of spatial econometrics, we discuss the specification of one-directional effects, not mutual dependencies. Using an empirical study (a spatial autoregressive model of land price data in Fukui Prefecture, Japan) and Monte Carlo simulation results (contiguity matrices built based on regular lattices using the rook criteria), we show that spatial dependencies might not be recognized if such dependencies are assumed to be reciprocal.  相似文献   

20.
Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.  相似文献   

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