Cigarette and Tobacco Consumption: Have Anti-Smoking Policies Made a Difference?

The consumption of cigarette and tobacco products in Australia is modelled using the rational addiction theory of Becker and Murphy, augmented by data on advertising, regulatory intervention, and demographic factors. Over the past 35 years, price (including tobacco taxes), real income, and demographic effects explain most of the variation in tobacco consumption. Advertising by tobacco companies has had a relatively small direct effect on consumption. Work-place smoking bans and health warnings on cigarette packs have had a relatively minor impact, while anti-smoking advertising and bans on electronic media advertising have had no detectable direct effect.     

Rationally addicted to drinking and smoking?

When modelling demand for addictive consumption goods, the most widely used framework is the rational addiction model proposed by Becker and Murphy. This paper extends the rational addiction model to include two addictive consumption goods, alcohol and cigarettes, and using aggregate annual time series on sales volumes for the period 1955–1999, estimates the aggregate demand for these goods in Sweden, where OLS estimates are compared to GMM estimates allowing for possible endogeneity of lagged and lead consumption. First, the demand for alcohol and cigarettes are estimated as separate equations and it is found that alcohol demand is quite well described by the rational addiction model while the same is not true for cigarettes. The own-price elasticities are negative, and alcohol demand is more elastic than cigarette demand. The cross-price elasticities are also negative, showing that alcohol and cigarettes are complements. Since consumption of alcohol and cigarettes are probably simultaneous decisions, the demand for these goods is estimated as a system of equations and it is found that alcohol demand is still positively affected by lagged and lead consumption while cigarette demand is not. It is also found that the elasticities obtained are now generally smaller compared to when estimating the equations separately.     

CIGARETTE TAXATION AND DEMAND: AN EMPIRICAL MODEL

This paper evaluates the impact of taxation on cigarette consumption, using a recursive model that includes a retail price equation and a dynamic demand equation. The analysis is based on panel data for 11 western states over the period 1967–1990. Results indicate that cigarette consumption is price-sensitive, with a demand elasticity of –0.40 in the short run and –0.48 in the long run. A tax increase, such as that imposed in California in January 1989, can have a strong effect of reducing cigarette consumption by between 11.2 percent in the short run and 13.4 percent in the long run. These results support the theory of rational addiction and the hypothesis that, as a part of their oligopoly behavior, the tobacco companies often do raise end-market prices by more than the amount of the increase in tax rates .     

OBESITY AND NUTRIENT CONSUMPTION: A RATIONAL ADDICTION?

Recent research shows that the dramatic rise in obesity in the United States is due more to the overconsumption of unhealthy foods than underactivity. This study tests for an addiction to food nutrients as a potential explanation for the apparent excessive consumption. A random coefficients (mixed) logit model is used to test a multivariate rational addiction model. The results reveal a particularly strong addiction to carbohydrates. The implication of this finding is that price-based policies, sin taxes, or produce subsidies that change the expected future costs and benefits of consuming carbohydrate-intensive foods may be effective in controlling excessive nutrient intake. ( JEL D120, I120, C230)     

An empirical analysis of habit and addiction to antibiotics

Because of bacterial resistance, current antibiotic consumption is reinforced by past use, and future utility is lower. The purpose of this article is to provide evidence on habit and addictive behavior toward antibiotics by exploring variations in the average consumption of antibiotics across 20 Italian regions. Using a balanced panel data set (2000–2009), we estimate myopic and rational addiction models, in which antibiotic consumption depends upon demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, the supply of health care in the community, antibiotic price, and the “capital stock” of endogenous bacterial resistance measured by past and future consumption. Our empirical evidence shows that past antibiotic consumption stimulates current consumption and is also consistent with the rational addiction hypothesis. The low price elasticity of antibiotic demand suggests that policy measures targeted at antibiotic co-payments may not be effective in controlling antibiotic consumption. There is scope for other policy interventions, such as incentives and information campaigns targeted at doctors.     

Do Addicts Behave Rationally?

The theory of rational addiction assumes that addicts' behavior is fully rational. Common sense and psychological introspection suggest, however, that addictive behavior is irrational. Without knowledge of the addicts' preferences this dispute cannot be resolved. This paper reports the results of an experiment in which addictive preferences were induced. It turns out that ‘addicts’ consume systematically too much compared to the optimal consumption decision. We explain this systematic excess consumption in terms of the psychologically salient features of addictive goods.     

Variety‐Controlling Public Policy Under Addiction and Saturation

This paper constructs a tractable general equilibrium model for investigating the dissimilar effects of addiction and saturation on consumption and public policy. By introducing an industry‐specific intertemporal consumption externality, we provide clear analytical results that a lump‐sum subsidy for firms can increase welfare in the presence of a negative externality (saturation). A tax can accomplish the same given a positive externality (addiction). Unlike existing studies of cultural goods, these results are not based on assumptions concerning exogenous different preferences across groups, but rather on conventional monopolistic competition and consumption habit formation models in macroeconomics.     

FISCAL POLICIES IN AN INTERTEMPORAL DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMIC MODEL

A two-period macroeconomic model where consumption and investment decisions are given microeconomic foundations is presented. The model is used to analyse the effects of both current and anticipated fiscal expansion; careful attention is paid to the implications of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. It is shown that anticipated fiscal expansion may, in certain circumstances, be expansionary. Also, current fiscal expansion, if financed by bonds which are retired through future money creation, may be contractionary.     

Unobserved components in an error-correction model of consumption for Southern European countries

In this paper we show how the potential misspecification of the consumption function can be ameliorated by approximating any unmodelled long run variation with an unobserved component in the form of a time-varying trend. This methodology is applied to Greek, Portuguese and Spanish consumption functions during the post-second World war period. The empirical evidence suggests that there are many determinants of long-run consumption in these countries, in addition to income and inflation, and these unobserved long-run effects are captured by a nonstationary stochastic component. The long-run elasticity of consumption with regards to the unobserved component is greater than unity in all countries. First version received: January 1999/Final version received: June 2000     

Why do people drink? Tests of the rational addiction model

The rational addiction (RA) model applied to alcoho consumption is tested using 1983 US Health Interview Survey data. The RA model yields refutable hypotheses concerning effects of current, past, and future prices, past and future consumption, time preference and marginal utility of wealth on addictive good consumption. The estimations provide relatively strong support for the RA model. Past and present consumption had strong positive relationship with current consumption. Coefficients on past, present, and future money prices and fines for first oflence drunk driving (as a form of price for alcohol consumption) were significant and of the predical sign.     

The effects of public infrastructure on the cost structure of Spanish industries

This paper examines the impact of public infrastructures on the performance of Spanish private business at a disaggregated industry level. We use duality theory to recover the productivity effects of public capital by calculating the cost saving effects that are associated to public services. Using a translog cost function we present panel estimates for 14 Spanish industries during the period 1980–1991. Our results strongly suggest that public capital formation can be considered to be an instrument to improve competitiveness by reducing production costs. However, the results also indicate that there is a technologically induced labor saving effect through higher public investment. Furthermore, our estimates suggest that a distinction among industries is of importance because the effects of public infrastructures vary across industries considerably.     

Harmful Addiction

We construct an infinite horizon model of harmful addiction. Consumption is compulsive if it differs from what the individual would have chosen had commitment been available. A good is addictive if its consumption leads to more compulsive consumption of the same good. We analyse the welfare implications of drug policies and find that taxes on drugs decrease welfare while prohibitive policies may increase welfare. We also analyse the agent's demand for voluntary commitment ("rehab"). For appropriate parameters, the model predicts a cycle of addiction where the agent periodically checks into rehab. Between these visits his drug consumption increases each period.     

ADVERTISING RESTRICTIONS AND CIGARETTE SMOKING: EVIDENCE FROM MYOPIC AND RATIONAL ADDICTION MODELS

Because of the high social cost of cigarette smoking, many countries impose advertising restrictions to reduce cigarette consumption. Yet previous studies conclude that advertising constraints have been ineffective at reducing cigarette smoking. This conclusion is incorrect because it ignores the fact that advertising restrictions have supply as well as demand effects. The authors extend existing research by showing that advertising regulations, especially those found in the recent National Tobacco Settlement, have decreased the equilibrium level of cigarette consumption in the United States, a result that holds for both myopic and rational addiction models. (JEL L50, L66, M37 )     

ANTICIPATED UTILITY AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AS APPROXIMATIONS OF BAYESIAN DECISION MAKING*

We study a Markov decision problem with unknown transition probabilities. We compute the exact Bayesian decision rule and compare it with two approximations. The first is an infinite‐history, rational‐expectations approximation that assumes that the decision maker knows the transition probabilities. The second is a version of Kreps' anticipated‐utility model in which decision makers update using Bayes' law but optimize in a way that is myopic with respect to their updating of probabilities. For several consumption‐smoothing examples, the anticipated‐utility approximation outperforms the rational expectations approximation. The rational expectations approximation misrepresents the market price of risk.     

Mortgage contracts in a general equilibrium model when there are inflation shocks

This paper examines the general equilibrium effects of anticipated and unanticipated inflation shocks when an asset such as housing is financed by long-term contracts. Unlike other analyses of housing and mortgage finance, this model specifies that financial markets are fully integrated. Within a simple three-period overlapping generations model, agents obtain a mortgage in the first period and maximize utility under the constraint that no borrowing for consumption is allowed. Following inflation shocks, transition paths of endogenous interest rates, house prices, and welfare can be traced in simulations of the economy under the assumption of rational expectations. When nominal contracts prevail, an unexpected increase in the inflation rate causes a decline in the real rate of interest, owing to adjustments in the loanable funds market. Thus, real effects emerge even in the absence of tax distortions or explicit modelling of uncertainty. I contrast these real effects, given loans in the form of adjustable rate mortgages, with the absence of such effects when loans are price-level-adjusted mortgages.     

HARM REDUCTION, RATIONAL ADDICTION, AND THE OPTIMAL PRESCRIBING OF ILLEGAL DRUGS

Harm reduction (HR) policy is designed to reduce the social, medical and economic cost of illegal drug use to users and to society at large. It is the most important recent development in international drug policy. However, in the United States and elsewhere, some fear that HR facilities such as needle exchanges and methadone maintenance programs may increase drug consumption and the risk of addiction. This is most likely if users are rational, forward-looking utility maximizers as in the Becker-Murphy model (1988). The tendency for HR policy to increase drug consumption may be strong or weak, depending on the type of drug and the elasticity of demand with respect to the full cost of drug use. The model predicts that the effects will differ between social groups and that there is an optimal prescribing policy for addicts who legally receive drugs in treatment programs. Evidence suggests that clinicians tend to prescribe sub-optimally .     

消费理性成瘾、公共健康与政府行为-基于消费者对碳酸饮料过度消费行为的案例研究

本文以碳酸饮料为例,从健康经济学的角度探究消费者过度消费不健康食品的经济学成因。本文发现,消费者对不健康食品的过度消费,是由于其消费行为所具有的理性成瘾特性决定的。这种特性导致了消费者对不健康食品的需求价格弹性过低。市场无法通过自身的价格机制,将此类产品的消费量保持在一个健康的水平。即此类商品的消费市场中存在着市场失灵现象。政府应该对不健康食品的消费市场进行积极地干预,以纠正市场失灵。     

Domestic GHG emissions and the responsibility of households in Spain: looking for regional differences

The aim of this article is to analyze the responsibilities of Spanish households, as final consumers, for the generation of domestic greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), by region of residence, distinguishing between NUTS 1 and NUTS 2 (autonomous regions). The motivation is the process of convergence experimented by Spanish regions based on the strong economic growth experienced by the country until 2008, which could results in different emissions responsibilities because of different lifestyles and production structures. We examine in depth the relationships between a representative household in each region and its patterns of consumption. Although we do find a relationship between per capita income and regional responsibility for pollution generation, it is based on a demand scale effect, which overlaps the effects of the regional consumption patterns. Thus, in the richest regions (Madrid, Northeast, East), despite their having a less polluting pattern than other regions, the level of per capita embodied emissions is higher, due to their higher level of consumption. This scale effect, and the linkages between regional responsibilities for emissions and household consumption patterns are analyzed using linear models based on Social Accounting Matrices. The basis of the estimations is the regional emission intensity (average emission per euro spent by each type of regional home).     

消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差

本文放松了理性经济人假设,在行为经济学双曲线贴现模型框架下,以"自我控制"认知偏差及相应的模型参数设定对东西方消费文化差异进行了技术表达,进而阐明了消费过度(欧美国家)和消费不足(东亚国家)这两类消费行为偏差的形成机制。本文采用全球48个国家和地区1978—2007年的面板数据,以儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数作为消费文化的替代变量检验了文化与消费的关系。结果表明,在解释东西方消费率差异时,预防性储蓄等传统理论的解释力远低于不可观测的国家个体效应。儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数能分别解释国家个体效应的28%和58%。这表明消费文化等不随时间改变的个体因素比传统变量更能解释各国居民的消费差异。实践层面上,双曲线贴现模型中锁定技术能有效纠正"自我控制"认知偏差,从而消解儒家文化对消费的深度抑制,可为扩大内需政策创新提供思路启发和技术支撑。     

Effects of fiscal policies on US agriculture

According to the macro rational expectation (MRE) hypothesis, only unanticipated macroeconomic policy has impacts on real economic variables, and anticipated policy changes have no real impacts. This study analysis the effects of the anticipated and unanticipated components of fiscal policy on the US farm real GNP by testing the neutrality and rationality propositions of the MRE hypothesis. The test results show that both the rationality and neutrality propositions are rejected. The empirical findings indicate that the anticipated fiscal policy does have significant effects on farm output. Examination of a specific sector sheds light on the nature of the market and helps ascertain the resons for the non-neutrality.