THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TRADE POLICY ON DEVELOPING COUNTRY AGRICULTURE*

The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations has attracted much attention in the developing countries. It promises to weaken moves towards bilateral trade agreements, break open trade in temperate agricultural products, and should remove the last vestiges of protection against tropical products – although tariff escalation will remain. Overall, the main gains for the developing world will probably accrue to exporters of temperate products, above all those in Latin America; whilst for some of the poorer countries, losses may occur as the benefits of special and favoured access to the industrialised countries' markets will be eroded.     

THE IMPACT OF TAXATION ON AGRICULTURE

This paper considers the impact of taxation on British agriculture. Its purpose is to provoke thought into an important aspect of agricultural adjustment which has been largely overlooked, with consequential mis-direction of thought and effort. consideratio is restricted to the limited number of large farmers who are responsible for the major proportion of production. It is shown that the tax structure inhibits the acquisition and maintenance of personal wealth at the ever-increasing levels required by modern farming methods and conditions. With the problem accentuated by inflation, there is no solution other than to accept the inevitability of corporation farming.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE*

This paper is an outline only of a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham. The paper proposes a socio-economic model of farm production with special emphasis placed on the role of management: formulates an econometric model, to represent the socio-economic model, in which the degree of managerial efficiency appears as a variable, and suggests means of interpretation of the econometric model to aid farm planning at the individual farm level.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE ARID ZONE OF NEW SOUTH WALES

The results described challenge the generally accepted interpretation of the factors underlying the changes in sheep numbers in the arid zone of New South Wales. The extent to which long-run changes in rainfall have been ignored is highlighted. Estimates of output per man are derived, using the C.E.S. production function, which show that there has been a small positive rate of technological change. Three-quarters of such technological advance has been due to factors which affect numbers of sheep carried, the remainder due to factors affecting wool production per sheep.     

THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

DISTRIBUTION OF RESEARCH GAINS UNDER DIFFERENT MARKET STRUCTURES: THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE WITHIN THE UK DAIRY INDUSTRY

This paper describes a model for assessing the aggregate level and distribution of benefits within the UK dairy industry from research aimed at reducing the costs of dairying equipment and machinery. The effect of the market structure of the farming and processing sectors is examined. It is shown, in this model, that the machinery sector always loses from a technological advance. The benefits and losses to the other sectors depend on the organisational structure of farmers and processors. Finally, the effect of imposing a levy on farmers to pay for research is discussed. The losses are shown not to be distributed in the same way as the research gains. The results have direct implications for the funding of research.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND SURPLUS LABOUR IN EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURE, 1952–1972

This paper has two main purposes. First to determine if technical innovation has occurred in Egyptian agriculture and whether or not it has been labour-using in nature. Secondly, to determine whether or not the marginal product of labour in Egyptian agriculture has been negative (surplus labour). The time period covered by the study is 1952 to 1972. The above objectives were met by estimating a weak disposability of inputs (WDI) production function. The characteristics of the weak disposability of inputs function were discussed in great detail, since much of the profession is unfamiliar with this functional form. The function was then estimated and the results seemed to indicate that this functional form was appropriate for Egyptian agriculture. The results of the estimation process indicated that labour-using technical innovation had indeed occurred, although at a very slow rate. In addition, for most of the time period covered the marginal product of labour was indeed negative.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE WHEAT-BELT OF SOUTH-EASTERN AUSTRALIA: THE IMPACT OF DELIVERY QUOTAS ON WHEAT PLANTINGS*

Supply response equations were estimated for a number of regions in south-eastern Australia using the area sown to wheat as the response variable. These equations were used to determine the effect of delivery quotas on the area of wheat sown in those regions. Results from this study indicate that delivery quotas were only effective in reducing wheat plantings in the south-eastern Australian wheat-belt in the 1970-71 season. Plantings in other seasons in which delivery quotas were applied could be explained using variables such as wheat prices and a time trend.     

A MODEL OF NEW ZEALAND APPLE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE*

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equations for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given technological change.     

THE IMPACT OF FARM AND PROCESSING RESEARCH ON THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY*

An equilibrium displacement model of the world wool top industry is used to estimate the returns to the Australian wool industry from productivity improvements in farm production, in top making and in textile manufacturing. The returns to the industry from these different types of research and development are sensitive to the extent of substitution possibilities between Australian wool and other inputs used by the wool processing and textile industries but it appears that research resources have to be much more efficient in off-farm activities for the Australian wool industry to receive benefits similar to those from farm research activities.     

THE IMPACT OF INPUT PRICE INFLATION ON THE UNITED STATES FARMING INDUSTRY*

The impact of national inflation on net income of American farmers is expressed as the elasticity E of net income with respect to input prices. E is derived mathematically from a series of equations expressing productivity, revenue, costs, and elasticities of supply and demand. Empirical estimates of E are calculated for large input categories as well as for all purchased inputs for both the short and long run using estimates of the required parameters. Price inflation for cash operating inputs with an elastic demand such as fertilizer tends not to disadvantage farmers. But total use of inputs such as real estate, labor, and, durable inventories are relatively unresponsive to higher taxes, wages and interest rales, and thus farmers are seriously disadvantaged by inflation of these “prices.” In general, farmers benefit from input price increases if the price elasticity of demand for the input exceeds that of farm output. For all purchased inputs, this study reveals a small impact on net farm income from a once-for-all input price increment of one percent. ?effet de ?inflation nationale sur le revenu net des fermiers amériains s'exprime par la flexibilité E du revenu net par rapport au prix de revient. E est dérivé par calcul mathémalique d.une série ?équations qui expriment la productivité, le rapport, les frais et la flexibilité de ?offre el de la demande. On estime empiriquement la valeur de E pour des catégories ?investissement importantes de même que pour loutes les matières premières achelées, à tongue et à courte échéance, en se servant ?estimes des paramètres nécessaires. La hausse des prix des investissements achetés cast et dont le besoin est variable, tels que les engrais, tend a ne pas occasioner de perte pour le fermier. Mais ?emploi total ?investissements tels que biens immeubles, main ?oeuvre et invenlaires à longue durée sont relativemenl peu sensibles à?augmentation du laux des impôts, des salaires, el ?intérêt. de sorte que les fermiers sont sérieusement handicapes par la hausse de ces “prix”. En général, les fermiers bénéficient de ?augmentation des prix de revient si la flexibilityé de prix des ressources excede celle de la production fermiere. Pour toutes les ressources achetées, cette étude révèle qu'une augmentation de un pour-cent dans les prix des investissements definitifsproduit un effet minime sur le revenufermier net.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

This paper evaluates the economic worth of forestry projects in the United Kingdom by using two different public sector investment appraisal criteria; the traditional discounted cash flows and the recently-established sum of discounted consumption flows. In the latter, in view of the intergenerational distribution aspect of government projects, the conventional rules are modified, enabling the decision-maker to treat all generations, present and future, in an equitable manner. Forestry is an excellent example to highlight the issue that many public sector investment projects re-distribute income between generations. Its long gestation periods make it obvious that there is more than one generation involved in the venture. In this analysis a one hectare plantation of Sitka spruce, class 20, is considered for a single 50-year rotation. Three different interest rates, 10 per cent test rate of discount, 5 per cent required rate of return, and 3 per cent forestry target rate are used under 4 different assumptions regarding the future price of timber.     

APPLICATIONS OF GAME THEORY MODELS IN AGRICULTURE*

Due to the time lag between investment and payoff, the price-taking nature of agriculture, stochastic weather variables and other factors, the uncertainty faced by decision makers in agriculture is greater than and different from that confronting managers of most other sectors of economy. In this paper, game theory models have been applied to the problem of decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. The authors examine and compare the pros and cons of the four conventional theories of choice in decision making in agriculture. The four theories are: (a) Wald's maximin criterion, (b) Laplace's principle of “insufficient reason”, (c) Hurwicz's “optimism-pessimism” criterion and (d) Savage's “regret” criterion. In this study, applications have been made to the choice of type of farming, optimum dosage of fertiliser and manure and the most appropriate time of selling agricultural produce. The authors propose an additional theory of choice—the criterion of “benefit”—which seems more appropriate than the conventional theories under many situations.     

THE RETURNS FROM RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIAN BROADACRE AGRICULTURE*

Many people share the view that too little is invested in R & D in agriculture. The relationship between several measures of productivity and research expenditure was estimated using data from ABARE's surveys of broadacre industries and a new data series on R & D expenditure for the period 1953 to 1988. The internal rate of return to research was estimated to be in the range of 15 to 40 percent which does not provide strong evidence that Australia is either under- or over-investing in public research.     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE*

A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method. This consistency suggests that the partial risk aversion coefficient is a relatively robust measure of attitudes to risk.     

芜湖市土地利用及其结构变化分析

分析了芜湖市土地利用现状,对近年来土地利用结构的变化特点及其原因进行了探讨;针对芜湖市土地利用中存在的问题,提出了合理利用土地资源的对策。     

精确农业在我国的推广应用分析

介绍了精确农业的概念及其技术系统;分析了我国发展精确农业的必要性和可行性;针对我国农业现状,提出在我国不同区域,发展不同阶段的精确农业的构想。