Sustainable Forestry: Timber Bequests, Future Generations and Optimal Tax Policy

This paper analyzes harvesting and timber bequest behavior in a two-period overlapping generations model where the government uses site productivity, yield and inheritance taxation. The ceteris paribus effects of forest and inheritance taxes are derived first, then the paper discusses the optimal design of forest and inheritance taxes by assuming that intergenerational externalities are either absent or operative. In the absence of intergenerational externalities, it is optimal to use only the site productivity tax, and not to introduce yield and inheritance taxes at all. In the presence of intergenerational externalities the situation changes. The paper demonstrates that the externality can be internalized by introducing either a yield tax or an inheritance subsidy, or both. If the government is able to use both at the same time, it is desirable to use the yield tax to 'punish' excessive harvesting and an inheritance subsidy to 'bribe' to give bequests.     

International Capital Movements In the Solow and Overlapping Generations Growth Models*

This paper examines capital movements in the overlapping generations and Solow models. For the overlapping generations model, a simple compensation scheme is developed to show how the gaining generation(s) can always compensate the losing generation(s) and still gain in the move from autarky to free capital mobility. Moreover, unlike the Solow model, the move to an open economy for the overlapping generations model has a tendency to reduce the assets held by the capital-exporting country.     

Application of David Butt's Theory of Growth to the Problem of Investment Allocation*

David Butt's multi-sectoral long-term theory of growth is summarized in mathematical terms and applied to the problem of allocating investment to many sectors, especially by modifying Nurkse's Balanced Growth doctrine to take account of changes in relative prices that occur during the growth process. The case of mechanization of the food sector is discussed in some detail.     

A Neo-Ricardian Trade Model with Overlapping Generations*

This paper develops and examines a discrete-time two-by-two-by-two barter trading world which incorporates populations. composed of overlapping, life-cycle-maximizing generations; each provides an economically distinguishable factor of production. It is shown that free trade without compensation can be Pareto inferior to autarky for one country. Conditions for uncompensated free trade to take place under a majority voting system are derived. The model permits intergenerational borrowing and lending to take place domestically but not internationally.     

Optimal Protection of Property Rights in a General Equilibrium Model of Growth*

We incorporate weak property rights into an otherwise standard general equilibrium model of growth and second‐best optimal policy. In this setup, the state plays two of its key roles: it protects property rights and provides public services. The government chooses policy (the income tax rate, as well as the allocation of collected tax revenues between law enforcement and public services) to maximize the growth rate of the economy. The focus of our analysis is on how weak property rights generate multiple decentralized competitive equilibria, the different properties of these equilibria, and the implications of second‐best optimal policies.     

The Transfer Problem and Intergenerational Allocation in an Overlapping Generations Model

We investigate the transfer problem between two countries in the steady state in a one-sector overlapping generations model and explain how transfers should be shared between the young and old generations of the donor country and allocated across the generations of the recipient country. Except at the golden rule of capital accumulation, the ratios of the burden and distribution of transfers between the young and old generations affect welfare. We obtain the following results. First, the sharing of the transfer burden in the donor country depends on the relative size of two effects, namely, a negative direct effect and a positive indirect effect. If the former exceeds the latter, it is preferable for the donor country to allocate all of the transfer burden to the old generation and vice versa. Second, from the viewpoint of welfare maximization, it is preferable for the recipient country to distribute all of the transfers to the young generation. In contrast to the existing literature, these results suggest that the setting whereby the young generation of the donor country defrays all transfer costs may not be justifiable from the viewpoint of donor welfare maximization.     

Optimal Complementary Auctions*

This paper considers the situation where two products are sold by the same seller, but to disjoint sets of potential buyers. Externalities may arise from each market outcome to the other. The paper examines the nature of the seller's optimal mechanism, and, for example in the case of positive externalities, it is shown that the allocation decision in either market depends on the highest types in both markets. The optimal mechanism can be implemented by an indirect mechanism that essentially charges winning bidders for the value of their externalities. The analysis is applied to the sale of public sector franchises including exploration and development rights for oil and gas tracts.     

Anti-Stagflationary Tax Cuts and the Problem of Investment*

If prices are affected by both cost-push and demand-pull factors then a change in the policy mix towards fiscal ease can improve output, employment and the balance of trade without the price level rising. However the policy change may reduce investment and so affect the intertemporal allocation of resources. This paper derives conditions for tax cuts to ameliorate inflation and unemployment without a sacrifice of future output. Numerical examples suggest that one can have no presumption that the conditions are or are not likely to hold in general. The discussion is related to Corden's recent analysis of a 'free lunch'.     

Unemployment and Growth in the Long Run: an Efficiency‐Wage Model With Optimal Savings*

An efficiency‐wage model of steady‐state equilibrium with labor‐augmenting technical progress is developed to explore the long‐run relationship between unemployment and growth. The rate of productivity growth is either specified exogenously or determined endogenously. In both cases, we preserve key results of the Shapiro–Stiglitz efficiency‐wage analysis without growth. Our model, however, also yields some striking new results. For instance, an exogenous increase in the growth rate may raise the rate of efficiency‐wage unemployment, and a once‐for‐all rise in the labor force may reduce the unemployment rate in the endogenous‐growth case.     

Time Consistent Optimal Redistribution Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model

This paper analyzes optimal redistribution policy in a two‐period version of the overlapping generations model with heterogeneous individuals and asymmetric information between the government and the private sector. The government of the first period determines redistribution transfers for the first period but is not able to set the policy variables for the second period. With respect to savings the paper considers two scenarios: In the first scenario savings are observable and the government can set individual savings levels in addition to redistributive transfers. In the second scenario savings and capital incomes are not observable. In both cases the redistribution equilibrium is not second‐best efficient.     

The Under-Exploitation of Natural Resources: A Model with Overlapping Generations*

It is well known that competitive markets may fail to generate an optimal rate of extraction of a natural resource-stock. The barrier to optimality may be uncertainty about tenure, commonality of property rights in the resource, or uncertainty about the extent of the resource. In all these cases, suboptimality takes the form of over-extraction. We draw attention to an additional source of suboptimality. In an economy with overlapping generations, the resource-stock plays the double role of repository of savings and source of productive inputs. The decline in the supply of the resource-stock may eventually force its price so high that it ceases to perform its second function. Extraction comes to an end even though the resource has a positive marginal productivity in producing consumption goods. This is inefficient, hence suboptimal. This time, however, suboptimality takes the form of under-extraction.     

Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are observed and suitably incorporated into the policy maker's optimal rule. These strong results extend to the case in which there is simultaneous learning by the policy maker and the private agents. Our findings show the importance of conditioning policy appropriately, not just on fundamentals, but also directly on observed household and firm expectations.     

China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects*

Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.     

Firm Size Distribution and Growth*

Abstract Empirical documentation of the sectoral distribution of firm size for a set of European countries reveals substantial differences. We study the relationship between productivity growth at the industry level and size structure. A positive and robust relation is found between average firm size and growth. We ask why size should matter for growth by considering the role of innovation to construct a test based on the differential effect of size on growth according to various indicators of R&D intensity. Our results indicate that larger size fosters productivity growth because it allows firms to take advantage of all the increasing returns associated with R&D. We argue that our test can be interpreted as a test of reverse causality, which lends support to the view that firm size has a causal impact on growth.     

Quantifying Optimal Growth Policy

We determine the optimal growth policy within a comprehensive endogenous growth model. The model accounts for important elements of the tax transfer system and for transitional dynamics. It captures the three main growth engines based on standard ingredients in order to understand the quantitative policy and welfare implications of the existing theory. Our calibrated model indicates that the current policy leads to severe underinvestment in both R&D and physical capital, implying that both R&D and capital investment subsidies should be increased substantially. We argue that previous research has overlooked a strong evidence for the welfare significance of the quest for the optimal growth policy by failing to calibrate the distortionary tax system.     

Endogenous Growth and International Trade*

This paper clarifies and slightly generalizes the basic endogenous-growth model. I prove the basic theorems without the usual assumption that the distribution of knowledge around the world is irrelevant. Results are stated in terms of lemmas, theorems, and corollaries in order to bring out as clearly as possible the role of each assumption.     

Optimal Hedging Under Forward-Looking Behaviour*

The study focuses on the production and hedging behaviour of forward-looking risk-averse competitive firms. It is shown that there is separation between production and hedging. Optimal productin for a forward-looking firm is identical to that of an otherwise equivalent myopic firm. However, the optimal forward-looking hedge differs from the optimal myopic hedge. If forward prices are unbiased, full hedging is suboptimal when the firm is forward looking and output and material input prices are contemporaneously related. Furthermore, under certain conditions, the optimal forward-looking hedge under unbiased forward prices is strictly smaller than the full hedge.