A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: Keyword-based morphology analysis

Morphology analysis (MA), a representative qualitative technique in technology forecasting (TF), has been utilized to identify technology opportunities. However, conventional MA is subject to limitations in that there is no scientific or systematic way in establishing the morphology of technology, and it is difficult to prioritize the alternatives. As a remedy, we propose a keyword-based MA that is supported by a systematic procedure and quantitative data for concluding the morphology of technology. To this end, a technology dictionary is developed by factor analysis for keywords that are extracted from patent documents through text mining. Then, the morphology of patents is identified based on the technology dictionary. By listing the occupied configurations of collected patents, the unoccupied territory of configurations are suggested as technology opportunities. Moreover, the priority of alternatives is concluded, and similar and substitutive technologies can be analyzed for the purpose of extending morphology structure. Technical and managerial strategy for in-house R&D or cross-licensing can also be supported by examining the morphology portfolio of technologies. A thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) case is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of this brand-new MA.     

Assessment of China's and India's science and technology literature — introduction, background, and approach

Science and technology (S&T) allows (1) automation to replace human labor, (2) enhanced human labor capabilities, (3) quicker and cheaper production of goods, and (4) more complex products and processes. In order to maintain competitive advantages, it is critical for any country to understand what other countries are producing in S&T, and what intrinsic S&T capabilities are being developed.India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. These two dynamic economies are advancing rapidly in S&T, and it is prudent to assess the quantity and quality of their research output as well as to examine trends in their S&T capabilities.This paper, the first of four in a Special Section on China's and India's S&T, introduces the remaining three papers. Specifically, this paper describes the motivation for the studies, the background for understanding national S&T assessments, an overview of text mining, a brief picture of the Indian and Chinese S&T establishments, and a summary of the analytical techniques used in the assessments.     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

Politics and institutions: European parliamentary technology assessment

This paper analyses, from an institutionalist perspective, the emergence, nature and ways in which parliamentary scientific and technological advice activities are carried out in different European countries. A diffusion process from the United Sates could be identified in the early times, but some local preconditions are also important for the adoption of these practices in Europe, as well as the existence of some political entrepreneurs willing to advance the initiatives within their respective political systems. We argue that the connection of technology assessment (TA) with the political process can only be understood if the former is regarded not only as an input in the decision-making process but also as a legitimising mechanism.Different models of arrangements of parliamentary TA (PTA) are identified, depending on the degree of inclusiveness of different actors in the TA process. The adaptation, consolidation and differential impact of these organizations are mediated by two factors: the capacity of PTA organizations to gain support, both inside and outside the Legislature, and their capacity to access decision makers in an environment of competition with other organizations that also produce TA. Models of PTA have both types of these capacities in differing degrees. It is argued that differences in the potential impact of TA activities in the different countries are to be analysed in the context of the rules of the political game and the types of incentives that TA organizations face. The degree of autonomy/dependence and exclusivity/nonexclusivity of the assessment for the parliaments are essential for understanding the diversity of impacts.     

Global distribution of micro–nano technology and fabrication centers: A portfolio analysis approach

Micro and Nano Technologies (MNT) are potential economic engines that have the capability to become the basis for regional and national job and wealth creation. Some have even suggested that MNT along with information technology and media form the basis of a new Schumpeterian or Kondratief wave. Many governments recognizing MNT as enabling technologies with exceptional economic potential have embraced them as centerpieces of their technology policy. Many of these same countries and regions as an expression of their technology policy are creating national centers that embrace the promise of MNT. These international Micro and Nano Technology Centers (MNTC) have taken a variety of forms.Here we review the variety of forms and define the nature of many these major MNTCs from around the world by describing some of their similarities and differences. We provide an insight into many of these centers' demonstrated policy and tactics as they optimize their value to their constituents. Finally we provide a contribution to the literature by providing a categorization scheme for global MNTCs based on our exploration.     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

The structure and infrastructure of Mexico's science and technology

The structure and infrastructure of the Mexican technical literature was determined. A representative database of technical articles was extracted from the Science Citation Index for the year 2002, with each article containing at least one author with a Mexican address. Many different manual and statistical clustering methods were used to identify the structure of the technical literature (especially the science and technology core competencies). One of the pervasive technical topics identified from the clustering, thin films research, was analyzed further using bibliometrics, in order to identify the infrastructure of this technology.     

Chinese science and technology — Structure and infrastructure

This paper identifies and analyzes the science and technology core competencies of China, based on a sampling of approximately half of the total Chinese publication output in the Science Citation Index/ Social Science Citation Index (SCI/SSCI) [SCI. Certain data included herein are derived from the Science Citation Index/Social Science Citation Index prepared by the Thomson Scientific®, Inc. (Thomson®), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA: © Copyright Thomson Scientific® 2006. All rights reserved. [1]] for 2005. Aggregate China publication and citation bibliometrics were obtained and a hierarchical research taxonomy, based on document clustering, was generated. Additionally, bibliometrics and thematic trends were tracked over the past two decades.The key findings were that China's output of research articles has significantly expanded in the last decade. In terms of sheer numbers of research articles, especially in cuting-edge technologies, such as nanotechnology and energetic materials, it is among the leaders. Compared to the USA, the bulk of China's articles focus on the physical and engineering sciences, while the USA articles (compared to China) focus on medical, social, and psychological sciences.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Competing at the frontier: The changing role of technology policy in Singapore's economic strategy

For an economy competing at the global frontier, an innovation-based growth strategy requires a well-developed technological infrastructure, a set of capabilities-focused technology policies, as well as an institutional environment that stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship. This paper examines the role played by science and technology policy in an economy's transition to an innovation-based growth strategy. We discuss the challenges governments face as they restructure economic institutions to deepen R&D capabilities and encourage technology creation. We review Singapore's experience in this regard and assess its ongoing efforts to remake itself to compete at the global frontier.     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

基于产业技术轨道强度特征的科技金融体系研究

提出了金融支持科技创新的概念性框架,从技术轨道强度及其变化的角度探讨了金融在促进技术与经济发展中的功能和规律。在技术轨道强度较弱阶段,政府主导的机构和资本对技术轨道的形成具有重要作用。随着轨道强度逐渐加强,市场导向的金融资本逐渐成为促进技术轨道成形和加速发展的重要推动力量。在技术轨道强度较高的时期,政府的政策导向和规划作用再次凸显出来。通过对4个创新型国家的经济和主要产业技术轨道发展的历史性分析,对理论框架进行了论证,并探讨了相关政策含义。     

Future issues of science and technology

The Millennium Project involved 237 scientists, futurists, and policymakers around the world in a two-round Delphi on the future issues of science and technology (S&T) over the next 25 years. This is the first of a 3-year study. The study began by asking science attaches to Washington, DC, what questions were worth asking to their leading scientists and issues that were important to explore on an international basis. A series of questions were identified and rated. Actions to address the questions were also suggested and rated. The results are presented in this paper with some regional differences discussed. The next year of the study interviewed S&T policymakers for the management and policy implications of these findings, and the third year developed scenarios based on these implications.     

The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy: A Japanese view

This paper evaluates technology forecasting and foresight (TF/F) methods in relation to users' decision systems for science and technology (S&T) strategies. As TF/F is an aid to decisions for attaining S&T goals, we examine the serviceability or suitability and acceptability of the methods and outcomes of TF/F for decision systems and S&T strategies. The focus is on extrapolation and Delphi methods because they are so widely used in technology forecasting (TFC). Based on the complaint analysis of TFC that revealed inaccuracy as the most serious obstacle to its acceptance, this paper especially analyses the meaning of accuracy. Learning from the experiences of TFC, the suitability of technology foresight (TFS) to cognitive structures in users' decisions is discussed. Finally, some lessons from TFC are presented for TFS.     

On transformation of public sector research: A preliminary post-STBL assessment in Taiwan

The paper examines the impact of the Science and Technology Basic Law (STBL) enactment of 1999 on the transformation of public sector research (PSR) in Taiwan. The paper proposes a research framework to assess the changes on PSR mainly through four dimensions: (1) new infrastructure build-up, (2) industrial research links, (3) patenting and licensing, and (4) industrial education/training. Nine research hypotheses are developed. Based on the survey data of 107 PSR establishments, the paper reveals that Taiwan PSR has experienced a burgeoning infrastructure build-up and a more active partnership with industry in the post-STBL period. However, the paper argues that the scientific-economic transformation of PSR in Taiwan tends to develop better “industrial collaborative research and training capabilities” than “patenting and licensing capabilities” in the preliminary post-STBL period. The divergence on patenting, licensing and partnership capabilities still persists between experienced PSREs and non-experienced ones, suggesting a learning effect. These findings provide crucial policy implications to delineate appropriate roles of PSR in the new scientific-economic regime.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion

Likewise many other developed and developing countries, a national Technology Foresight Program was carried out in Turkey under the name of Vision 2023. This paper analyzes and discusses the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program from a contextualist perspective. The contextualist perspective suggests relationships between the context, content and process of change; and thus proposes that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering these relationships. This viewpoint is seen as a necessary condition for the achievement of change in organizations and society. In this respect, the Vision 2023 Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing (i) how the factors in these contexts affected particular decisions taken on the content and approaches adopted in the process and (ii) how problems emerged when these relationships were dismissed. Through the analysis, the paper suggests that a Foresight program should be organized, designed and practised by considering the effects of the external contexts (e.g. national, regional and/or corporate contexts) and structural and behavioral factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.     

Sustaining sustainability science: The role of established inter-disciplines

The establishment of new interdisciplinary fields such as ecological economics, human ecology or technology assessment can be interpreted as a logical consequence of striving for new sustainability sciences that address current global, multi-dimensional and multi-scale challenges. These set out to bridge the gap between the natural and the social sphere, between scientific analysis and societal action. This paper aims at re-assessing the contribution of established inter-disciplines to sustainable development. Journal articles of ecological economics, technology assessment and science and technology studies are evaluated and compared along several proposed features of sustainability science. The results converge in two crucial aspects. (1) Concise societal or political recommendations are not part of present day ‘normal science’, be it a disciplinary or an explicitly interdisciplinary research context. (2) Participatory exercises are rarely applied as a socio-politically embedded practice, despite a high interest in such exercises as an object of study and discussion.