In Defense of Pay-as-You-Go (Paygo) Financing of Social Security

Abstract

Today’s proposals to create larger social security funds and then invest them in the private sector are intended to create more rapid economic growth, which would make it easier to pay social security benefits in the long run. These proposals are also aimed at enhancing intergenerational equity by making today’s workers pay for a greater proportion of their future benefits.

The important public policy issues inherent in such proposals are numerous: questions of whether prefunded social security plans are demographically immune; whether prefunding social security can increase gross national savings and worker productivity; whether there are better ways to create a healthy economy; whether social security is best offered as a defined-benefit plan or a defined-contribution plan. This paper explores each of these important public policy issues in the context of the social security systems of Canada and the U.S.     

Government deficits and aggregate demand

The evidence presented in this paper indicates that changes in government spending, transfers and taxes can have substantial effects on aggregate demand. The estimates also indicate that the promise of future social security benefits significantly reduces private saving. Each the basic implications of the so-called ‘Ricardian equivalence theorem’ is contradicted by the data. The results are consistent with the more general view of the effects of fiscal actions and fiscal expectations that is described in the paper.     

Rechtliche Strukturen und Rahmenbedingungen der Privat- und Sozialversicherung

Private insurance and national social security insurance do not coexist unrelatedly. The constitution rather presumes a complementary co-operation of both branches of insurance. Whereas private insurance is based on the doctrine of privity of contract, national social security requires statutory legitimation. However, the principle of the bipolar insurance constitution restricts social security insurance to the effect, that it cannot expand unlimitedly at the expense of private insurance. This constitutional basis is reinforced by European Community law in Articles 49, 81 pp. EC. An essential difference between private and social security insurance is the fact that private insurance is characterized by the principle of personal equivalence between contribution and benefit payments, whereas in social security insurance this relation is determined by the principle of general equivalence. Consequently, the principle of solidarity in social security insurance is enriched by additional social components, the most dominant being the principle of social protection. Contrary to the developments of the last decades, social security systems are not designed as a legal scheme to protect a status quo of possession but should primarily serve to fight poverty. Thus, social security law should recall its absorbing function in the social network and rediscover, guarantee and realize the principle of subsidiarity in social security.     

Retirement and Social Security in a Probabilistic Voting Model

Why are social security transfers associated with retirement rules? This paper focuses on the political interactions between retirement and social security. Using a probabilistic voting approach, it analyzes why old people are induced to retire in order to receive pension transfers from the young. A crucial hypothesis is that leisure in old age represents a “merit good,” which is positively valued by all agents in the society, young and old. Thus, the politicians choose to tax the labor income of the old, to induce them to retire. Retirement increases the level of ideological homogeneity of the old. In fact, once retired, the elderly are more “single-minded,” since they only care about redistributive issues, such as pensions. This increase in their political power allows them to win the political game and to receive a positive transfer from the young (social security).     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

ACHIEVING SOCIAL OBJECTIVES THROUGH PRIVATE TRANSFERS: A Review

Private interhousehold cash transfers are an important sourceof income in many developing countries. Among the countrieswhose experience is reviewed in the article, the proportionof all households receiving private transfers ranges from afifth to a half. The amounts received are large, particularlywhen compared with the incomes of the poorest households. Understanding more about these transfers is important for designingpolicy because, among other things, these remittances providesocial and economic benefits similar to those of public programs,such as unemployment insurance, pension support, educationalcredit, and health assistance. As such, private transfers maysupplement or overlap with public transfers, and, if privatedonors give less as public transfers increase, the effect ofpublic programs on beneficiaries would be less than originallyintended. Or the transfers may alter the distributional effectsof public programs: for again, if private donors give less aspublic transfers increase, they share in some of the benefitsof public programs.      

Social welfare effects of tax-benefit reform under endogenous participation and unemployment: an ordinal approach

This paper analyzes the social welfare effects of tax-benefit reforms in a framework integrating endogenous labor supply and unemployment. We adopt an ordinal approach to social welfare comparisons by searching for “socially desirable” reforms that would improve social welfare for an entire class of social welfare functions. In the model, there is a discrete distribution of individuals’ productivities and individuals are heterogeneous with respect to leisure preferences (or disability of work). Labor supply decisions are limited to the participation decision. Unemployment is modeled in a search and matching framework with individual wage bargaining. For the social welfare analysis, the model is calibrated for Switzerland. Starting from a situation with an unemployment benefit scheme, the introduction of in-work benefits is shown to be a “socially desirable” reform: it would be unanimously preferred to the current situation according to all social welfare functions based on the criteria of Pareto, anonymity, and the principle of transfers. This result holds for two different types of preference heterogeneity (leisure preferences or disability of work) and also for the case where job search effort cannot be monitored.     

Agency Conflicts in Public and Negotiated Transfers of Corporate Control

We analyze control transfers in firms with a dominant minority blockholder and otherwise dispersed owners, and show that the transaction mode is important. Negotiated block trades preserve a low level of ownership concentration, inducing more inefficient extraction of private benefits. In contrast, public acquisitions increase ownership concentration, resulting in fewer private benefits and higher firm value. Within our model, the incumbent and new controlling party prefer to trade the block because of the dispersed shareholders' free-riding behavior. We also explore the regulatory implications of this agency problem and its impact on the terms of block trades.     

Which Investors Fear Expropriation? Evidence from Investors' Portfolio Choices

Using a data set that provides unprecedented detail on investors' stockholdings, we analyze whether investors take the quality of corporate governance into account when selecting stocks. We find that all categories of investors (domestic and foreign, institutional and small individual) who generally enjoy only security benefits are reluctant to invest in companies with weak corporate governance. In contrast, individuals connected with company insiders are more likely to invest in weak corporate governance companies. These findings suggest that it is important to distinguish between investors who enjoy private benefits or access private information, and investors who enjoy only security benefits.     

Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries

How do demographic factors influence retirement? Using a large cross-country data set, I show that in countries with a larger share of elderly in their population the length of retirement is longer. This result holds true if I control for wealth effects, and when the effective labor force participation rate of the elderly is used instead of the official retirement age. Retirement policies and the social security size are strictly related: a new variable, representing the aggregate relevance of retirement policies, turns out to be significant in explaining the size of social security. Finally, the total amount of social security transfers is positively related with the increase of the elderly population, while in per capita terms this relation is not significant.     

Improving corporate governance where the State is the controlling block holder: evidence from China

This paper examines changes in values and returns for Chinese firms around announcements of block-share transfers among government agencies, State-owned enterprises and private investors. We find that transfers to all three types of investors result in positive abnormal returns around transfer announcements, even when the transfers do not create a new controlling block holder and when transfers are between State entities. We also find that transfers from State entities to private entities result in larger increases in value and returns than transfers between State-controlled entities – consistent with the superior incentives and expertise of private investors. We conclude that corporate governance can be improved at State-controlled firms by improving incentives and expertise of controlling block holders.     

浙江农村社会保障市场机制利用的调查报告

浙江省农村社会保障引入市场机制,在工作实践中创造出保险公司经办新农保业务的"衢江模式"、银行贷款垫交养老保险费用的"柯城模式"、引进市场机制提高医疗保障程度的"金华模式",这些创新在便民惠民的同时减轻了地方政府负担,提高了管理经办效率。浙江经验意味着,为促进我国农村社会保障的发展,可以从四个层次逐步深化对市场机制的利用。     

On the social usefulness of fractional reserve banking

In this paper we argue that if monetary policy has insufficient deflation, private agents have incentives to set up alternative payment systems like fractionally backed bank deposits, which pay interest on the means of payment. In a competitive environment with free entry, these alternative systems are inherently fragile in the sense that they are subject to socially costly bank runs. These social costs are not internalized by private individuals and banks and may exceed their social benefits. We argue that as communication technologies improve, the social benefits of fractional reserve banking decrease, but the private benefits may still exceed the private costs so that such systems continue to be used. In such situations, 100% reserve requirements are optimal.     

加强民营经济的制度环境建设

改革开放后,我国民营经济经历了从无到有、从小到大的发展过程.民营经济作为社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分是我国现代化建设的重要力量,但民营经济的发展仍受到多方面的制约,主要是由于我国的社会主义市场经济体制、法律体系、社会保障体系不完善等制度环境因素.贯彻新宪法关于鼓励和支持非公有制经济的发展就是要从制度环境的建设入手,从根本上解决民营经济发展面临的困境.     

社会保障绩效评估指标体系思考

本文主要研究了社会管理创新中的关于社会保障方面的绩效评估体系.本文认为,社会管理的主体应该包括政府和其他社会主体,如社会组织、私人和企业等,因而在绩效评估方面,不仅要对政府在社会保障方面的绩效进行评估,也应该对社会主体在社会保障方面的行为进行评估,建立起客观的和主观的绩效评估指标体系.     

美国证券欺诈起诉标准的新发展——以Matrixx v.Siracusano案为中心

2011年3月美国联邦最高法院审结的Matrixx案,明确了原告提起私人证券欺诈之诉时应满足的"重大性"和"故意"两个起诉标准之具体含义。最高法院拒绝在"重大性"问题上适用黑白分明的判断标准,坚持从"是否有实质性可能性使一个理性的投资者认为被遗漏信息的披露将显著改变现有信息的全局"角度来判断某一信息是否重大。Matrixx案判决将进一步加强上市公司的披露义务,并在一定程度上为原告提起证券欺诈之诉提供便利。     

Fixed and variable longevity income annuities in defined contribution plans: Optimal retirement portfolios taking social security into account

This paper investigates retirees' optimal purchases of fixed and variable longevity income annuities using their defined contribution (DC) plan assets and given their expected social security benefits. As an alternative, we also evaluate using plan assets to boost social security benefits through delayed claiming. Using a calibrated life-cycle model, we determine that including deferred income annuities in DC accounts is welfare-enhancing for all sex/education groups examined. We also show that providing access to well-designed variable deferred annuities with some equity exposure further enhances retiree well-being, compared to having access only to fixed annuities. Nevertheless, for those facing the highest mortality rates, delaying claiming social security is mostly preferred, whereas those anticipating living longer than average will benefit more from using accumulated DC plan assets to purchase deferred annuities.     

社会保险费的就业效应:综述与启示

社会保险费的经济归宿主要受到劳动力市场供求弹性、工资弹性和缴费-收益预期的影响。如果社会保险费不能完全转嫁给劳动者,将对就业产生不利的效应,而在二元劳动力市场特征明显的国家,还可能会带来显著的非正规就业问题。我国当前社会保险费的制度缺陷、最低工资标准的逐年提高和《社会保险法》的实施,可能存在严重的就业风险。     

Life-cycle effects of social security in an open economy: A theoretical and empirical survey

Conventional wisdom views demographic change as a set of exogenous shocks impinging on social security, with the economy treated as a closed system. This contribution argues that demographics is nothing but the aggregate of individual decisions, which are influenced by social security. This claim is supported by both theoretical argument and empirical evidence with regard to decisions over the life cycle, ranging from educational effort, marriage, number of children, divorce, retirement, and effort to extend one's life. Distinguishing the effects of contributions and benefits of social security, these feedback relationships are shown to in the main hamper employment and growth, thus undermining the financial viability of today's social security schemes, with increasing openness of the economy (`globalization') exacerbating problems.