世界经济复苏的新特征及其对中国经济的影响

2010年以来在大规模刺激性政策的作用下,世界经济整体出现积极变化,全球经济复苏格局初步显现。然而与2008年全球同步进入衰退不同的是,当前全球经济差异性复苏且面临众多考验。既有周期性因素,也有结构性因素;既存风险与潜在风险相互交织。特别是4月份以来,欧洲主权债务危机因希腊无法及时得到救助而最终显性化,全球金融风险重心由美国移至欧洲。世界经济复苏的这些新特征、新变化导致中国的外部压力增加。外部压力增加将使中国内部结构调整趋于复杂化。中国须要因时而动、因势利导做好充分准备。     

2010年世界主要货币汇率走势及2011年展望

2010年,全球经济不均衡复苏,各国货币汇率也呈现出不同的走势：上半年,欧洲主权债务危机恶化引发欧元汇率急剧下跌,美元持续走强;下半年,欧债危机暂时缓解,欧元触底回升,而美国经济复苏放缓,美元大幅贬值,迫使其他货币被动升值。展望2011年,世界经济复苏仍然缓慢,美元将继续维持弱势震荡,欧元走势取决于欧债危机的进展,日元的下行风险将加大,澳元等资源型国家的货币则将震荡上升,人民币的升值压力也将加大。我国应利用人民币升值的有利方面,将其负面影响降到最低。     

艰难跋涉的欧盟经济

2012年,欧洲主权债务危机再次将欧盟经济拖入衰退境地并成为威胁全球经济复苏进程的最大风险因素,虽然在成员国政府、欧盟、欧洲央行的共同努力下,年末金融市场紧张状况趋缓,投资者信心有所回升,而经济刺激计划和促进就业增长措施的推出,也有利于未来的发展前景,但问题尚没有得到解决。欧债危机的风险仍在,经济复苏的步伐缓慢而脆弱,一遇风吹草动便会出现震荡。     

影响未来全球经济的九大风险与挑战

一场70年来最大的金融危机中止了全球近30年的大景气周期。2009年上半年全球主要经济体国家都出现了连续两个季度以上的衰退,为阻止危机进一步升级,2月以来,全球各国央行和政府联手推出力度空前的金融救援和财政刺激计划。在超大规模的政策激励下,5月份,全球经济深度衰退态势得到了初步遏制,并出现更多积极迹象;其中美国基本面数据出现衰退见底信号,欧洲及日本也出现微弱的好转现象,而新兴经济体复苏迹象则更为明显。但是这些迹象是否真正预示全球经济进入复苏通道？本文对未来影响全球经济走势的九大风险给予研判。     

艰难跋涉的欧盟经济

2012年,欧洲主权债务危机再次将欧盟经济拖入衰退境地并成为威胁全球经济复苏进程的最大风险因素,虽然在成员国政府、欧盟、欧洲央行的共同努力下,年末金融市场紧张状况趋缓,投资者信心有所回升,而经济刺激计划和促进就业增长措施的推出,也有利于未来的发展前景,但问题尚没有得到解决.欧债危机的风险仍在,经济复苏的步伐缓慢而脆弱,一遇风吹草动便会出现震荡.     

后危机背景下广东省外贸发展的分析与对策

2008年以来,美国次贷危机已演变成全球性金融危机,全球金融市场动荡加剧,进一步向实体经济蔓延,美欧日三大经济体陷入衰退.在全球化以及后危机背景下,欧洲主权债务危机持续升级,美国长期主权信用评级被下调,全球经济复苏趋缓,下行风险加大,发达国家失业率居高不下,私人需求疲弱,欧美市场的需求有较大收缩.在外界环境如此恶劣的情况下,广东省做为我们国家的出口大省,本文在阐述广东省外贸受到金融危机的影响上,分析外贸发展方式存在的问题,并提出在后危机背景下,广东省发展外贸的对策     

欧洲主权债务危机对我国经济的影响

在美国次贷危机对全球经济的影响逐步消退之时,世界经济复苏之路又迎来新挑战,继国际评级机构下调希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙国家主权债务评级之后,近期又下调意大利国家主权债务评级,显示着欧洲主权债务危机出现进一步恶化的趋势,进一步影响着包括中国在内的世界经济的发展。本文对欧洲主权债务危机的成因做出了分析,并重点研究了对中国经济的影响和带来的启发。     

欧洲主权债务危机对广东经济的影响和对策

在美国次贷危机对全球经济的影响逐步消退,经济复苏迹象越来越明显之际,欧洲主权债务危机频频爆发,引起全球投资者一片恐慌,全球金融市场随之猛烈震荡。在全球一体化进程加快的今天,欧洲主权债务危机极具传染性,对世界其他地区和领域产生了不同程度的影响,给世界经济复苏进程和国内经济形势增添了不确定性。     

全球经济现状研究及其启示

美国、欧洲和中国,由于经济现象的复杂性、宏观调控的滞后性、政府之手的非中立性,2008—2010年各国对抗市场震荡的调控政策并没有妙手回春,相反,宏观经济政策本身已经成为经济扰动的内生变量,全球经济复苏受阻,危机四伏,几乎走到"二次探底"的边缘。文章通过对美国、欧洲和中国经济现状的分析,得出2012年是构筑全球经济新增长的关键之年,并由此对全球宏观经济政策提出建议。     

后危机背景下广东省外贸发展的分析与对策

2008年以来，美国次贷危机已演变成全球性金融危机，全球金融市场动荡加剧，进一步向实体经济蔓延，美欧日三大经济体陷入衰退。在全球化以及后危机背景下，欧洲主权债务危机持续升级，美国长期主权信用评级被下调，全球经济复苏趋缓，下行风险加大，发达国家失业率居高不下，私人需求疲弱,欧美市场的需求有较大收缩。在外界环境如此恶劣的情况下，广东省做为我们国家的出口大省，本文在阐述广东省外贸受到金融危机的影响上，分析外贸发展方式存在的问题，并提出在后危机背景下，广东省发展外贸的对策。     

我国房地产税制的现状及改革构想

房地产税制是维护房地产市场公平竞争，实现国家对房地产业宏观调控的有力杠杆。然而，我国现行的房地产税制却存在税费不分、税制不统一、税制结构不合理等诸多问题。严重影响了其对房地产业应有的宏观调控作用。因此，适时地推进房地产税制的改革应是当务之急，应统一内外税制，合理界定税费的范围，建立统一、规范、合理的房地产税收体系。     

The Change in Productive Efficiency in Telecommunications in the United States

The question addressed here is whether the adoption of incentive regulation, which has become an important regulatory tool in the telecommunications industry in the USA, has resulted in a change in the technical efficiency of local exchange carriers in the USA. After providing an overview of the nature of incentive regulation, a methodology for measuring technical efficiency and its change is introduced. This is a multiple-output/multiple-input distance function approach to measuring technical efficiency. The results of implementing this approach for 19 local exchange carriers for the 1988-2001 period indicate that in the production of local service, intrastate toll/access service, and interstate access to local loops, there was no change in technical efficiency between the 1988-1990 period and the 1991- 2001 period, something that incentive regulation was specifically designed to promote.     

西部地区人力资本投资与知识化发展

人力资本投资在推动知识化发展的过程中存在自增强机制，通过促进人力资本保值增值，进行人力资源合理配置，改善配置环境和配置政策、完善配套措施，有助于充分发挥这一机制的功能，从而实现西部地区知识化发展。     

Age Discrimination in Employment in Canada

Issues pertaining to age discrimination in employment in Canada are analyzed with a view toward highlighting lessons that may be learned from the Canadian experience—an experience that is taking on increased policy importance. Reasons for the increased attention to age discrimination issues are outlined, followed by a portrayal of the age discrimination legislation and court interpretations in Canada, especially as they pertain to mandatory retirement. Enforcement aspects are discussed, as is the evidence on age discrimination in employment and the effectiveness of legislation with respect to age discrimination and mandatory retirement. The article concludes with a discussion of the lessons to be learned from the Canadian experience, especially with respect to the poorly understood but complicated relationship between age discrimination and mandatory retirement. Policy recommendations for strengthening age discrimination legislation are also outlined. (JEL J14 , J24 , J71 )     

Inequalities in Income Distribution in Slovenia

This article presents an empirical analysis of income distribution based on income tax data for Slovenia in 1991-2000. It presents evidence of rising inequalities in income distribution (gross income, gross wages and pensions). These results are supported by coefficients of variation, Gini coefficients and by the Lorenz curves. Inequalities increased rapidly in the 1991 to 1993 period. After a significant decrease in 1994 and a steady increase from 1995 to 2000, the peak value from 1993 was not surpassed. Atkinson's requirements for dominance comparisons are not violated. Inequalities are also present in the distribution of the benefits of economic growth among income groups.     

上海生态农业发展影响因素研究

文章分析了上海生态农业发展的影响因素,并利用计量模型进行检验,认为影响上海生态农业发展的主要因素有农业基础设施、农业劳动力资源、农业产业化水平、农业科技实力状况。     

Public participation in forestry in Turkey

Recently public participation in forestry has been seriously considered in Turkey. Participation is however quite a challenge for a country with a long tradition of top-down management and a strong bottom-up dependence on public provisioning. In such a setting, it may not be surprising that the experiences with public participation in forestry in Turkey are mixed. There are some positive initiatives like the creation of farmer's cooperatives and NGOs, but their role is quite limited and small of scale. This paper is bringing together different views based on existing studies in Turkish related to Turkey's experience with implementing public participation in forestry.     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.