Revisiting the Eurozone Phillips curve

• In a recent speech, ECB chief economist Peter Praet emphasised the importance of the Phillips curve ‐ the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation ‐ when addressing concerns that disinflation (or even deflation) could become a longer‐term problem in the Eurozone. Praet argued that a scenario of a sustained period of disinflation is only realistic if the link between economic slack and inflation is broken. In this article, we revisit the Phillips curve in the Eurozone with the aim of gauging whether there has been a change in the relationship following the global financial crisis and how uniform the curve is among major Eurozone economies.
• We conclude that the Phillips curve is still valid in the Eurozone, although our analysis indicates a weakening of the link in the post‐crisis period. On the whole, our analysis shows that the Phillips curve relationship has been robust in the Eurozone since the creation of the currency union. However, in replicating the analysis for just the pre‐crisis period, we have noticed that the relationship between slack and inflation for the Eurozone was stronger (i.e. the slope of the curve was steeper) before the crisis rather than over the whole sample, since the introduction of the Euro.
• We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the strength of the link between inflation and slack across the Eurozone economies, which adds to our existing body of work on their different responses to same shocks. Moreover, in contrast to the Eurozone overall, we find that in Spain and Italy the responsiveness of inflation to slack appears to have actually increased since the crisis; this might reflect the effectiveness of the structural reforms undertaken in both countries in order to reduce the rigidity of their economies.
• From 2014 onwards, very low inflation in the Eurozone has led to fears of sustained disinflation and even a deflationary spiral. Our view has always been that these fears were overblown; proving that the key structural relationship needed for ECB to meet its mandate is still in place corroborates our stance. Our forecast is for headline inflation to rise to 0.7% in 2016 (under the assumption that oil prices average US$37pb) and then to 1.7% in 2017 ‐ in line with ECB's target of “close to, but below, 2%”. The Phillips curve we have derived for the Eurozone tells a similar story. However, renewed weakness in oil prices at the start of 2016 presents a downside risk to our forecasts.
• Our bottom‐up CPI inflation model indicates that inflation might average just 0.2% this year if oil remains at around US$30pb. Furthermore, the prospect of external demand weakness derailing the Eurozone recovery poses another risk. This has raised the possibility of further expansion of the ECB's QE programme. However, as we continue to see resilient domestic demand in 2016, our baseline case still remains that the ECB will make no additional substantial adjustments to its QE programme in the near term.

     

Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher‐order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the NKPC identification problem in the canonical three‐equation, new Keynesian model. We revisit the empirical evidence for the USA, the UK, and Canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the Anderson and Rubin ( 1949 ) statistic, which is robust to weak identification. We also apply the Guggenberger and Smith ( 2008 ) LM test to the underlying NKPC pricing parameters. Both tests yield little evidence of forward‐looking inflation dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migration,unemployment dispersion and the Phillips curve

Policy-makers have long known that the complexity of the labor market creates the potential for a wide variety of strategies to be utilized to improve the ‘wage inflation-unemployment’ trade-off. This research assesses the potential effect of two unemployment-reducing strategies — reducing the dispersion of unemployment rates and increasing labor-force migration. The results of the regression analysis suggest that an approach which encourages labor-force migration would be more efficient than the present shot-gun approach of CETA and other manpower programs. Cost estimates also suggest that it is more expensive to improve the Phillips curve through employment expanding expenditures than it is to improve the curve through migration inducement.     

An alternative approach to estimate the wage returns to private‐sector training

This paper follows an alternative approach to identify the wage effects of private‐sector training. The idea is to narrow down the comparison group by only taking into consideration the workers who wanted to participate in training but did not do so because of some random event. This makes the comparison group increasingly similar to the group of participants in terms of observed individual characteristics and the characteristics of (planned) training events. At the same time, the point estimate of the average return to training consistently drops from a large and significant return to a point estimate close to zero. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unemployment,disequilibrium and the short run phillips curve: An econometric approach

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labour market consisting of demand and supply functions for labour, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behaviour of several important variables are sensible. In particular, excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable.     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor

We develop a DSGE model with firm-specific labor where wage and price setting are subject to Calvo-type staggering. This is in general an intractable problem due to complicated intertemporal dependencies between price and wage decisions. However, the problem is significantly simplified if we, in line with empirical evidence, assume that prices can be changed whenever wages are. We show that the price- and wage-setting relationships are substantially altered by the introduction of firm-specific labor. Specifically, the inflation response is substantially dampened, whereas the wage inflation response is increased as compared to models with freely mobile labor. These distinctive features of the model with firm-specific labor are supported by empirical evidence from a structural VAR.     

An empirically-derived multidimensional measure of expatriate success: reconciling the discord

This paper examines the discord surrounding how expatriate success, or effectiveness, is defined. We review the many ways that success has been conceptualized and then seek to reconcile these differences by presenting a multidimensional measure of success, based on data collected from 118 expatriate respondents worldwide. A series of factor analyses, along with reliability and item analyses yielded nine measurement scales which included cultural adjustment, work-related adjustment, career development, HQ-subsidiary coordination, assignment completion, professional/skill development, shaping and controlling the subsidiary, satisfaction and overall assignment effectiveness. The process by which these scales were developed is described in the paper and all items and scale reliabilities are presented.     

Just‐cause provisions,severance pay,and the efficiency wage hypothesis

A simple model of employment contracting is employed to examine the effectiveness of just‐cause provisions in alleviating employer opportunism in two types of efficiency wage contracts—standard contracts, in which wages exceed the worker's marginal contribution, and deferred wages, which are paid after a period of tenure in the firm. It is argued that just‐cause employment policies are necessary and sufficient to prevent employer opportunism when standard efficiency wages are utilized. However, just‐cause policies are not sufficient to deter employer opportunism when employment contracts are of the delayed‐payment type. In these contracts, other contractual provisions, such as severance provisions, are also necessary. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socio-institutional determinants of educational resource efficiency according to the capability approach: An endogenous stochastic frontier analysis

We investigate the role of private and public resources in educational attainments and the socio-institutional determinants of educational resource efficiency in Italy. Following the Sen's capability approach, we consider social capital and the quality of government part of the social conversion factors through which resources can be converted into human capabilities, such as education. We analyze the case of Italy by constructing a new longitudinal dataset from 1993 to 2012, using repeated cross sections from the main social survey of the Italian Statistical Institute and a panel stochastic frontier model that takes into account endogeneity. The results show the relative importance of private resources (measured by an ad hoc constructed wealth index), the complementarity between private wealth and public expenditures on education, and the positive impact of social capital and the quality of government on educational resource efficiency.     

The employment effects of the minimum wage: A selection ratio approach to measuring treatment effects

I develop a method for measuring a binary treatment's effects when more than one control group is available but each control group is imperfect. To study effects of the minimum wage, for example, I compare border counties where the minimum wage increases to the set of neighboring counties, the set of neighbor-of-neighboring counties, and so forth. The key innovation is to model the ratio of the biases present in these comparisons. Crucially, the model contains a testable implication. The method can address spillovers and, in another application, is used to measure treatment effects away from the discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design.     

Technical efficiency of Norwegian banks: The non-parametric approach to efficiency measurement

The nonparametric frontier methodology is applied to a sample of banks, where output levels are measured either by the number of accounts and their average size, or by the total balances of the accounts. The efficiency rankings of individual banks are found to depend substantially on our choice of output metric, whereas the estimated size of potential productivity improvements in the banking sector are less affected. The results on economies of scale are also largely unchanged.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through S. Grosskopf.     

A time-varying volatility approach to modeling the phillips curve: A cross-country analysis

This research examines the Phillips curve price adjustment mechanism allowing for the conditional variance of inflation to be time varying. Specifically, we estimate ARCH and GARCH models of inflation for Canada, Japan, and the U.K. The results suggest that an increase in the conditional variability of inflation leads to higher levels of inflation. In addition, inclusion of inflation variability in the Phillips curve model results in a higher weight being attributed to the output gap than in traditional models. (JEF E24)     

Pensions,wage profiles,and retirement rules specific human capital approach

This paper clarifies how the loss of profits by quit-related work force disturbances and the endogeneity of the length of contracts play a critical role in determination of the compensation structure. Such a loss of profits is demonstrated to be a necessary and sufficient condition which induces (non-vested) pensions and mandatory retirement synchronously. Mandatory (or pensioned) retirement, however, does not always entail upward-tilted wage profiles except in the firms in which workers' quitting creates a serious work force disturbance. The optimal length of contract is determined as a function of market opportunities and firm-specific characteristics. Finally, based on our analysis, policy implications in Japan's contemporary industrial relations are derived.     

Transfer payments and the Phillips Curve

Policy makers are today confronted with a worsening relationship between inflation and unemployment. Voluminous economic literature on the “Phillips Curve” has long attempted to show why inflation and unemployment are normally inversely correlated. More recent literature has sought to identify factors that could worsen the apparent tradeoff. This paper uses the labor sector of the System Dynamics National Model to analyze the potential impacts of increased transfer payments on inflation and unemployment. The results suggest that in the short run, higher transfer payments can prolong job search, thereby boosting unemployment, while simultaneously driving up wages due to reduced labor availability. But over the longer term, rising wages raise the attrractiveness of working, thereby compensating for higher transfer payments. Therefore, higher transfer payments are not permanently inflationary. Key long-run impacts of transfer payments may be to raise relative costs of labor, thereby lowering employment through factor substitution, and to discourage dropout from the labor force so as to maintain eligibility for payments.     

Operating efficiency in Chinese universities: An extended two-stage network DEA approach

The result shows that it accepts the null hypothesis. Namely, there is no significant difference in the operating efficiency of universities in different regions. That is to say, although the efficiency of the central and western universities is slightly better than that of the eastern universities in terms of the average efficiency, there is no significant efficiency difference among the eastern, central, and western regions statistically. Therefore, it shows a balanced development trend for the efficiency of universities in different regions.     

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis

We use identification-robust methods to assess a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali – Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195–222] specification, for U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification which uses survey-based data on inflation expectations. The two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (iii) price adjustment frequency. Overall, the results provide some support to the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our analysis underscores the need for employing identification-robust inference methods.     

Assessing French nursing home efficiency: An indirect approach via budget-constrained DEA models

In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques are applied to the French nursing home industry in order to address two policy issues. The first involves nursing home size and returns to scale, while the second deals with the potential effects of a change in nursing home reimbursement from a flat rate to one based on the severity of case-mix. To accomplish this, our analysis expands on the existing nursing home literature to analyze technical and allocative efficiency along with budget-constrained models rather than the more common direct input-based distance function. Technical efficiency is evaluated via an indirect output distance function while allocative output efficiency is computed with a cost indirect revenue function. The findings suggest that system-wide efficiency and equity may result from coming reforms since payments would more accurately reflect resource use.     

An axiomatic approach to the measurement of accessibility

In this paper an axiomatic approach is developed for the task of measuring accessibility. The general mathematical form of a measure satisfying the postulated axioms is derived. This class of measure contains as a sub-class the so-called gravity potentials. A measure of the accessibility to employment opportunities is presented with applications to the Stockholm region. Finally some ideas on further development of accessibility measures are discussed.     

An approach to the display and analysis of multiobjective problems

In all operations research applications, the problem of implementation rests on the information conveyed to the decision maker. The presentation of results is a critical link in the success of a project. An ineffective transfer of information will reduce the chance of decision maker acceptance. This final step in the analysis is particularly difficult in multiobjective analyses, where the amount of relevent information increases with each performance measure.This paper will describe an alternative to the typical graphical approach to multiobjective display, which is adaptable to any number of objectives. A real world example is given and some theoretical insights are developed.     

Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle

Estimates of the slope of the Phillips curve reported in the literature cover a range from roughly ? 0.6 to zero depending on specification. Forward‐looking specifications, favored by theory, produce the smallest slope estimates. This paper addresses this puzzle by studying the bivariate process of inflation and unemployment in a fairly general unobserved components framework allowing for stochastic trends and related cycles. Analysis reveals that the slope of the implied Phillips curve will depend critically on the horizon of the forward‐looking inflation expectation provided the cyclical component of unemployment is highly persistent. Empirical analysis results show that is the case, suggesting that the choice of expectation horizon, generally set at one quarter in the New Keynesian literature, may play an important role in this debate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.