The trade and environment nexus in Mexican agriculture. A general equilibrium analysis

This paper analyzes linkages between growth, trade and the environment in Mexican agriculture with an empirical economy-wide model. The investigation considers trade liberalization, environmental policy reform, and their coordination. The analysis decomposes the change in pollution emission induced by changes in the sectoral composition of production, effects of technology on emission intensity, and aggregate Scale effects. Outward orientation alone induces a contraction of aggregate agricultural output, but promotes growth and pollution in some agricultural sectors. Overall, free trade does not induce wholesale specialization in dirty agricultural activities. Environmental taxes on pollution emitted in agricultural sectors have a moderate negative impact on agricultural output, except for the tax on water-borne toxic chemicals. More liberal trade combined with targeted effluent taxes can achieve significant environmental mitigation and efficiency gains, but with the implication of a contraction of most agricultural sectors.     

Links between economic liberalization and rural resource degradation in the developing regions

This paper examines evidence of the effects of economic liberalization and globalization on rural resource degradation in developing countries. The principal resource effects of concern are processes of land use change leading to forestland conversion, degradation and deforestation. The main trends in globalization of interest are trade liberalization and economy-wide reforms in developing countries that have 'opened up' the agroindustrial sectors, thus increasing their export-orientation. Such reforms have clearly spurred agroindustrialization, rural development and economic growth, but there is also concern that there may be direct and indirect impacts on rural resource degradation. The direct impacts may occur as increased agricultural activity leads to conversion of forests and increased land degradation from 'unsustainable' production methods. However, there may also be indirect effects if agroindustrial development displaces landless, near-landless and rural poor generally, who then migrate to marginal agricultural lands and forest frontier regions. This paper explores these direct and indirect effects of globalization and agroindustrialization on rural resource degradation both generally, plus through examining case study evidence. The paper focuses in particular on the examples of structural adjustment, trade liberalization and agricultural development in Ghana, and maize sector liberalization in Mexico under North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).     

Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and U.S. Food Manufacturing

Many argued during the NAFTA debate that trade liberalization would favor Mexican over U.S. food processors, especially because of lax environmental laws south of the border. We find through an examination of profit functions that productivity growth in Mexico has outstripped that in the United States, suggesting free trade indeed will benefit Mexican suppliers. U.S. pollution regulations have had no impact on the profitability or productivity of U.S. food manufacturing. In contrast, Mexico's swiftly rising environmental standards have enhanced food processors' productivity growth, corroborating the Porter hypothesis. Pollution law, therefore, has favored Mexican over U.S. food processing, but for reasons few had anticipated.     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences under the North American Free Trade Agreement and Doha

We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments.     

Developing Countries and the Gains from Regionalism: Links between Trade and Farm Policy Reforms in Mexico

We use a multi–country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with agricultural policy details to simulate the effects of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We find that Mexico gains from NAFTA only when it also removes domestic distortions in agriculture. In that case, agriculture can generate allocative efficiency gains large enough to offset the terms of trade losses that arise because Mexico has higher initial tariffs than its NAFTA partners. When an RTA forces a developing country to reform its domestic distortions that are linked to trade restrictions, it becomes a building block toward multilateralism.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the International Oilseed Complex

One approach to trade liberalization is the zero-for-zero sectoral approach which involves agreements to eliminate export subsidies, import tariffs, and export taxes in a sector. This article provides an assessment of the impact of border trade liberalization on oilseeds and oilseed products trade. The analysis suggests that under all of the scenarios examined, North American oilseed crushers and oilseed producers gain from trade liberalization. The exact size and the distribution of these gains depends on the number of countries that participate in trade liberalization. The results suggest that the United States and Canada would gain from the adoption of the zero-for-zero proposal.     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

Agriculture,trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options

This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high‐, medium‐ and low‐income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the study employs three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group‐type linear panel models and one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross‐sectional dependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value‐added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails to track any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.     

Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data

The recent proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has intensified the debate on their merits. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing trade creation and diversion effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on trade in six important agrifood products. An extended gravity model is estimated using pooled data and generalized least squares methods. The result shows that the share of intraregional trade is growing within NAFTA and that NAFTA has displaced trade with the rest of the world. While NAFTA has served to boost trade among its members, it reduced the degree of openness to trade with nonmembers.     

Divergent Environmental Regulations and Trade Liberalization

The market and nonmarket consequences of environmental regulations and of trade liberalization under different regulatory regimes are explored in the context of the NAFTA through simulation modeling of the North American sheep and lamb markets. Producers are able to shift much of the cost of regulation to domestic and foreign consumers and thus gain from regulation. In the cases investigated, nonmarket effects are unlikely to reverse the sign of market gains or losses, and "level playing field" regulations may or may not be preferred.     

Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities

This study uses a random parameter probit estimation to examine the effects of tariff liberalization on the probability of establishing new trading relationships in meat commodities. Our simulation results indicate that the effects of tariff reductions decrease with distance, but increase with the level of development. The probabilities of trade increase at an increasing rate with the size of tariff reductions thus justifying calls for ambitious liberalization schemes. Canada and Mexico are the NAFTA countries that are most likely to export in response to EU tariff reductions on bovine and poultry meats, while Brazil and Argentina emerge as the MERCOSUR countries most likely to penetrate the EU bovine meat market after EU tariff reductions. Uruguay's probability to export poultry meat is most responsive to EU tariff reductions.     

长江经济带省际贸易隐含水-能-碳耦合关系研究

采用环境投入产出模型计算长江经济带省际贸易中虚拟水、隐含能及隐含碳流量,进一步结合Spearman等级相关系数研究分地区与分部门间的水-能-碳耦合关系。结果表明：水、能和碳在地区间和部门间均呈显著相关关系,其中第二产业和隐含能-碳相关性最强。虚拟水、隐含能和隐含碳调出调入中,江苏、浙江为关键省份,农业、建筑业和电力、热力、燃气及水的生产供应业是关键部门。深入研究隐含水-能-碳耦合特征,从贸易平衡视角将长江经济带11省市分为3类,发现隐含水-能-碳压力存在从发达地区转入欠发达地区的环境不公平现象。长江经济带应注重关键地区和关键部门节水节能减碳目标落实,推动产业结构低碳化、绿色化发展,同时加快形成区域协同治理体系。     

Neither State nor Market: The Influence of Farmers' Organizations on Agricultural Policies in Costa Rica

In recent decades, policies in many countries have been shaped by the implementation of economic liberalization, characterized by state withdrawal from marketing operations and control of trade. In this era of liberalization, policies regulating commodity marketing and trade were expected to disappear, but, in fact, this has hardly occurred. A comparative study is carried out of three farm sectors in Costa Rica, based on a dynamic analysis of behaviour in the context of the institutional change brought about by liberalization. The capacity of farmers' organizations to adapt and contribute to institutional change through their control over economic activity and their participation in policymaking processes is highlighted. In so doing, it is shown that, even in a liberalized era, policies regulating marketing and trade still exist and affect the functioning of agricultural markets. These policies differ according to the farm sector and can be linked directly to the influence of farmers' organizations within these sectors. It is shown that organizations play a key role in the regulation of farm sectors, and that their success depends on the institutional and organizational “thickness” to which they have contributed in each sector. Differences in historical trajectories can explain differences in the capacity of organizations to influence policymaking and to gain market share.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effects in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model

The objective of the paper is to explore potential changes in trade induced by a liberalization scenario when taking into account persistence in trading partners. Our approach is based on the development of a gravity model that takes into account the dynamics at the extensive margin of trade as well as the persistence effect of the intensity of trade. Our empirical contribution is on the egg sector, where the persistence in trading partners is acute. Our results indicate that the use of static models underestimate imports of table eggs by more than 50% in Canada, when compared with the use of panel dynamic specification. The dynamic specification helps explain why trade liberalizations often increase trade creation between countries that had already been trading partners, while new trading partnerships remain scarce following trade liberalization. Our results also confirm the importance of sunk cost and their negative impact on the probability of export market participation for developing countries. Those results raise questions regarding the benefit of trade liberalization for developing countries, in terms of accessing new market, if they do not benefit from special treatments.     

The North American Free Trade Agreement and the Canadian Agri-Food Sector

In the past five years, Canada has negotiated and ratified three trade agreements: the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the multilateral free trade agreement now administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper focuses on the implications for agri-food trade of the NAFTA and its interface with the other two agreements. The provisions of the NAFTA are described and evaluated as they relate to market access, domestic support, export assistance, technical regulations and dispute settlement. Observations are presented on the NAFTA's potential effects on trade in red meats, grains and oilseeds, supply-managed commodities and horticulture. In addition, some of the shortcomings of the NAFTA are highlighted.     

Partial Market Liberalization and the Efficiency of Policy Reform: The Case of the European Dairy Sector

This article analyzes the efficiency of partial market liberalization and policy reform with an application to the European dairy sector. In a second best world, partial moves toward market liberalization are not always efficiency improving. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate the efficiency implications of discrete changes in government policy. The analysis covers price and quantity instruments used in both domestic and trade policy. We derive simple conditions under which partial market liberalization is efficiency improving. We apply the approach to agricultural policy reform in the European dairy sector and identify market liberalization scenarios that are "not" efficiency improving.     

Agriculture in the United States,Mexico, Canada Agreement: Agreeing to keep things pretty much the same

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was referred to by U.S. President Trump as one of the worst trade deals ever made. Given this billing, one might have expected the result of its renegotiation to be a major change to the trading relationship between the United States and Canada. The new United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA), however, retains a great deal of its predecessor. This is particularly true for agricultural trade. Canadian market access into the United States remains virtually unchanged. No major domestic regulatory changes were agreed to by Canada. While there were concessions made on market access for U.S. products into Canada's heavily protected sectors where the supply management policy applies, they do not appear to threaten the system. While the value of the compensation has not yet been announced, compensation for losses that will be suffered by farmers producing under supply management is agreed in principle. The USMCA is an agreement to keep things pretty much the same.