The Other January Effect: international evidence

This paper investigates the predictive power of stock market returns in January for the subsequent 11 months’ returns across 19 countries, thereby contributing to the literature on stock market seasonalities. Only 2 out of 19 countries’ stock markets exhibit a robust Other January Effect. In the light of this evidence, we conclude that the Other January Effect is not an international phenomenon.     

Empirical tests of real estate market efficiency

Recent empirical research using real estate data has supported the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Previous studies have not included an estimate of expected appreciation into the tests of market efficiency, thus raising a question about the reliability of the results. We first use a market model to test for market efficiency with results similar to those reported by others. We next use a dynamic multiple indicator, multiple cause (DYMIMIC) model, which extracts a vector of expected appreciation from the price data, to test market efficiency. This approach produces superior results and a stronger conclusion about the efficiency of housing markets. The results indicate limited adjustment delays which can be explained by the existence of high transactions and search costs.     

A computational view of market efficiency

We study market efficiency from a computational viewpoint. Borrowing from theoretical computer science, we define a market to be efficient with respect to resources S (e.g., time, memory) if no strategy using resources S can make a profit. As a first step, we consider memory-m strategies whose action at time t depends only on the m previous observations at times t???m,?…?,?t???1. We introduce and study a simple model of market evolution, where strategies impact the market by their decision to buy or sell. We show that the effect of optimal strategies using memory m can lead to ‘market conditions’ that were not present initially, such as (1) market spikes and (2) the possibility for a strategy using memory m′?>?m to make a bigger profit than was initially possible. We suggest ours as a framework to rationalize the technological arms race of quantitative trading firms.     

Red sky at night or in the morning,to the equity market neither a delight nor a warning: the weather effect re-examined using intraday stock data

Unlike most of the existing literature on the weather effect, we conducted our analysis by employing intraday weather and market data, examining a large set of stocks rather than indices only, including volume and volatility data in the study and inspecting a wide number of weather variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, visibility, wind, cloud, rain and snow). Our analysis covered the Italian stock market for the period August 2005–March 2014 for a total of 2201 trading days. We conclude that no systematic relationship seems to exist between the weather and the Italian stock market. Moreover, our results raise doubts that testing the weather effect by limiting the analysis to indices only can lead to spurious conclusions.     

Market development and market efficiency: evidence based on nonlinear panel unit root tests

This study tests the weak form market efficiency of 32 European stock markets. Utilizing monthly data from June 2006 to June 2017, six different, newly developed nonlinear panel root tests were applied in three different groups of European markets: Frontier, Emerging and Developed. The results show that there is a meaningful relationship between different levels of economic development and the weak form market efficiency. Considering the nonlinear structure of the stock market indices, use of linear models might lead to wrong conclusions regarding market efficiency. Using several nonlinear panel root tests, the results of this study shed more light on the true data generating process of the stock market indices and more appropriately model market efficiency.     

How efficiency shapes market impact

We develop a theory for the market impact of large trading orders, which we call metaorders because they are typically split into small pieces and executed incrementally. Market impact is empirically observed to be a concave function of metaorder size, i.e. the impact per share of large metaorders is smaller than that of small metaorders. We formulate a stylized model of an algorithmic execution service and derive a fair pricing condition, which says that the average transaction price of the metaorder is equal to the price after trading is completed. We show that at equilibrium the distribution of trading volume adjusts to reflect information, and dictates the shape of the impact function. The resulting theory makes empirically testable predictions for the functional form of both the temporary and permanent components of market impact. Based on the commonly observed asymptotic distribution for the volume of large trades, it says that market impact should increase asymptotically roughly as the square root of metaorder size, with average permanent impact relaxing to about two-thirds of peak impact.     

Empirical investigation of stock index futures market efficiency: the case of the Athens Derivatives Exchange

Pricing and trading practices in the Athens Derivatives Exchange, a newly established derivatives market, result in significant futures arbitrage profit opportunities for low-cost traders. We find that a large part of the mispricing is due to transaction costs, but additional factors, such as anticipated volatility and time to maturity, also contribute. Ex ante tests reveal significant arbitrage opportunities that could have been exploited up to 30 min after they had been identified. All different tests employed indicate that the derivatives market was inefficient during its early trading history because arbitrage opportunities persisted even after other market impact costs were taken into consideration.     

Overreaction in the Hong Kong stock market

Overreaction reported in the equity markets of the United States, Spain, and Brazil is also observed in the Hong Kong stock market. The “loser” portfolios of the 33 stocks in the Hang Seng Index (HSI), on average, outperform the “winner” portfolios by 9.9% 1 year after the formation periods. Besides its emphasis on the importance of the Hong Kong market in international investment, this paper is unique in some special features related to the overreaction study. Hong Kong has markets for index futures and stock futures. Only three stocks are used in the portfolios. All the stocks in the HSI have large market capitalization and liquidity and can be shorted with no up-tick rule. Unlike other studies in international stock markets, the “arbitrage” portfolio of buying the loser portfolio and shorting the winner portfolio can actually be formed with minimum cost and easy execution, which makes the overreaction phenomena in this study very powerful.     

Divergence of US and Local Returns in the After‐market for Equity Issuing ADRs

We study one‐year post‐listing prices and returns to equity issuing ADRs that listed in the US between January 1991 and October 2000. ADRs from countries that impose restrictions on capital flows are priced at a premium to their home market ordinaries. While the mean premium for the full sample is statistically indistinguishable from zero, after an adjustment for asynchronous trading, the magnitude of the premium to ADRs from restricted markets is 11.33% at the 300‐day post listing interval, which is statistically significant. In the short run (30 days) following listing, the magnitude of the premium is larger for ADRs with larger excess demand from US investors. At the longer 300‐day horizon, Nasdaq listed ADRs earn a larger premium than their NYSE/AMEX listed counterparts. Time‐series regressions and two‐stage cross‐sectional regressions establish that the premium to foreign equity issuers is greater if the US listing attracts liquidity and if US returns have a lower correlation with the local country index.     

强制保险能否提高保险市场效率分析

本文以社会福利为衡量保险市场效率的标准,分析了实施强制保险是否有助于保险市场效率的提高。文章首先证明了在信息不对称的保险市场中存在着市场失灵现象;然后通过比较实施强制保险前后社会福利的差异,得出结论:实施强制保险有助于社会福利的改善,从而可以提高保险市场效率。     

Together we invest? Individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour in Poland

This paper contributes to the debate about individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour with new evidence from the Polish stock market. While most existing studies focus on institutional investors' trading in developed markets, we test for the presence of herding during market up- and downswings on an emerging market. Our unique approach is to combine an established method relying on daily prices with institutional features of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It enables us to separate individuals from institutions by examining two trading mechanisms with different investor structures. The empirical results suggest that individuals engage in herding during market downswings, while there is less evidence of imitating trading behaviour in bullish markets. Regardless of the state of the market, institutions' trading behaviour does not appear to exhibit herd behaviour. Further evidence suggests that herding by individuals becomes less pronounced over time.     

Testing market efficiency with the pricing kernel

Market efficiency and the pricing kernel are closely related. A non-monotonic decreasing pricing kernel implies the existence of a trading strategy in contingent claims that stochastically dominates a direct investment in the market. Moreover, a market is assumed to be efficient only if no dominating strategies exist. Empirically, many studies of the pricing kernel find non-monotonicity, apparently ruling out market efficiency. However, these results are often unreliable, because the pricing measures of the pricing kernel are estimated using differing filtration sets. We show this effect both theoretically and empirically, and we discuss recent approaches in the literature for achieving more reliable estimates of the pricing kernel, potentially leading to better tests of market efficiency.     

Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies

The contribution of this paper is to enable solid conclusions to be drawn about the existence of momentum effects in China as the current evidence is unsatisfactory. We review and analyse the existing empirical studies on momentum and contrarian strategies in China and show that many of the findings in these studies appear inconsistent, if not actually contradictory. To clarify this confused situation we initially identify common findings in the diverse and seemingly contradictory body of existing empirical evidence. Subsequently, we systematically assess how the design of empirical studies affects the results of investigations in this area. We do this by conducting an empirical analysis of monthly data on Chinese A shares, varying one factor in the research design at a time (sample period, equally or value-weighed portfolios, skipping a period between portfolio formation and holding periods, and exclusion of post-IPO observations). This allows us to pinpoint directly how each of these factors affects momentum profits and thus when these profits are likely to be observed. It also indicates why studies using different designs might have arrived at seemingly inconsistent conclusions. Overall, we draw a number of conclusions: there appear to exist medium- and longer-term reversals in the pre-2001 period and short-term reversals and longer-term momentum effects thereafter; there is substantial time-variation in the profits to momentum strategies; small stocks exhibit stronger reversals than their larger counterparts; a large fraction of portfolio returns occur in the first month after formation; there is evidence of post-IPO price drifts. In summary, this study reconciles and explains the inconsistent evidence on the existence of momentum and contrarian effects in China allowing clear conclusions to be drawn.     

投资收益、经营效率和寿险企业市场绩效

中国寿险业的垄断型市场结构并没有造成垄断企业控制市场以获得超额利润的情况。本文选取中国人寿、泰康人寿、新华人寿三家企业1998年～2007年间的面板数据作为样本数据,分析了我国寿险公司绩效的影响因素,认为在中国寿险业日益激烈的市场竞争下,寿险企业的利润主要来自投资收益,经营效率高的企业虽然不能因为技术效率和规模效率而获得高利润,但是可以在竞争中占有更多的市场份额。     

行为金融视野下的资本结构研究

资本结构理论是现代金融理论的重要基石之一。经典的资本结构理论以有效市场和理性人假设为基础，而一直忽视了对人心理活动及行为模式的研究，造成了理论与实际的背离。本文从行为金融角度出发，在一个全新的视野下，研究资本结构决策与非理性行为之间的关系。公司内部和外部行为阻碍对资本结构产生重要影响，在此基础上对我国公司技融资行为和股票市场实践有重要的现实意义。     

The impact of the Japanese market on the intraday Hong Kong stock returns

This paper examines the impact of the price movement of the Japanese market on the Hong Kong market. We find that the Hong Kong stock prices react rapidly to the return information of the Japanese market. The evidence also indicates that the large price movement of the Japanese market can be used as an indicator for the Hong Kong market. The price reaction of the Hong Kong market is instantaneous and takes place in the opening minutes of the afternoon session. However, there is no excess profits when the transactions costs are included. Finally, the Hong Kong market has a significantly higher turnover when the Japanese market is open.     

The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency

The main purpose of the study is to determine whether the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) may be considered weak-form efficient in recent years. The major findings using daily data and a bias-free statistical technique with a sample spanning from September 1995 to March 2010 indicate that the results from the last sub-periods, including the subprime crisis, support the belief that these markets may have been approaching a state of being fairly weak-form efficient, which reflects the future prospects of BRIC countries.     

Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

We divided the whole series of Shenzhen stock market into two sub-series at the criterion of the date of a reform and their scale behaviors are investigated using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Employing the method of rolling window, we find that Shenzhen stock market was becoming more and more efficient by analyzing the change of Hurst exponent and a new efficient measure, which is equal to multifractality degree sometimes. We also study the change of Hurst exponent and multifractality degree of volatility series. The results show that the volatility series still have significantly long-range dependence and multifractality indicating that some conventional models such as GARCH and EGARCH cannot be used to forecast the volatilities of Shenzhen stock market. At last, the abnormal phenomenon of multifractality degrees for return series is discussed. The results have very important implications for analyzing the influence of policies, especially under the environment of financial crisis.     

Primacy in stock market participation: the effect of initial returns on market re-entry decisions

We examine whether initial returns influence investors’ decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors’ likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less likely to return, even after controlling for returns in the last month and average monthly returns for the duration of investing. This primacy effect is robust to accounting for endogeneity in investors’ exit decisions, and other behavioural biases such as recency and saliency of investment experience. Individual investors appear to be subject to primacy bias and tend to put a significant weight on initial experiences in re-entry decisions.