An Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Cost Information and Feedback on Product Cost Decisions*

Abstract. In this paper we report the results of an experiment designed to investigate the potential benefits of more accurate costing systems. Subjects in our experiment participated in one of four single-person decision making settings, which varied in terms of the accuracy of costing systems (less accurate versus more accurate cost reports) and in the complexity of the economic environment (less heterogeneous versus more heterogeneous products). The costing systems provided imperfect reports that subjects could use to select forecasts of future product costs. Forecast accuracy determined the resulting payoffs for subjects. In addition to having the cost reports when making forecasts, subjects also observed the association between forecasts and actual profits for previous periods and the rank ordering of the products' relative usage of resources at each of the production processes. The results from our experiment indicate that subjects did not select forecasts based only on reported costs. Rather they updated forecasts using profit feedback and the supplemental rank information about the products' relative usage of resources. We found that profits decreased as the complexity of economic environment increased but increased with the accuracy of cost reports. The profits associated with less accurate costing systems, however, were not as low as we would have predicted had the subjects used the cost reports as their forecasts. In fact, using profit feedback, subjects were able to converge toward optimal profits even with imperfect cost information.     

Specialization and Welfare in the Presence of Imperfectly Integrated Capital Markets and Learning-by-doing

We study a two-sector, two-period model with learning externalities in the modern sector and imperfectly integrated capital markets. We find that higher capital market integration lowers the requirements on the learning pattern necessary for free trade to lead to an equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities. We further find that the equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities Pareto dominates, if it exists, any other free trade equilibrium, and that autarky can Pareto dominate free trade if capital markets are poorly integrated, even when there is maximal specialization in modern sector activities under free trade.

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The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994.     

Fixed Cost Magnitude,Fixed Cost Reporting Format,and Competitive Pricing Decisions: Some Experimental Evidence*

Although neoclassical economic theory predicts that fixed cost magnitude and fixed cost reporting format will not influence short‐term pricing decisions, these factors systematically affected pricing decisions in a duopoly experiment. Increasing fixed cost magnitude (a pure sunk cost in this study) across experimental conditions caused participants to first lower, then raise, competitive prices. Consistent with the psychological phenomenon of loss aversion, this change in pricing behavior reduced the frequency of reported losses. This study further reveals that the accounting format for reporting fixed costs influenced pricing behavior. Specifically, participants receiving capacity costing feedback reports established increasingly lower selling prices relative to the prices established by participants receiving contribution margin feedback reports. Given that a very simple cosmetic reporting manipulation produced increasingly significant competitive pricing differences in a market setting, this study provides evidence that functional fixation is not necessarily eliminated by market forces.     

产品信息对价格影响的理论研究

本文从产业组织理论方向讨论了两种主要影响消费者对产品价值估计的因素：消费者的财富效应与厂商对消费者传达的信息效应。模型发现,影响均衡价格的主要因素不是消费者的财富效应,而消费者获取的产品信息对于均衡价格产生了决定性的影响。由此,我们从理论上首次定义了产品的信息扩散指标q;并进一步证明,当产品的信息交互程度不大（q〈2）时,有限信息影响情况下的产品均衡价格将随着厂商数目的增加而下降,这符合传统的产业组织理论;而当产品的信息交互程度较高（q〉2）时,产品均衡价格将随着厂商数目的增加而上升。后者虽然是一种比较少见的经济现象,但是对于我们当前医疗等领域的改革具有重大的现实指导意义。所以根据文章的理论结果,我们对国家目前的某些产业结构政策提出“细分产品信息层次”而选择市场竞争程度的建议。     

我国贸易保护成本估计的理论与经验

根据本国产品与进口替代品是否同质,分析贸易保护几种基本措施的成本计算的理论模型及应用模型。研究结果表明：贸易保护成本之间数据差距相当大,贸易保护成本的大小与贸易保护的手段有关,而与产品本身科技含量没有直接的联系；贸易保护成本不仅表现在静态成本,而且更多表现在难以计量的动态成本。     

交通基础设施的贸易成本效应:基于二元经济框架的理论分析与中国经验

文章基于Co爧ar和Fajgelbaum(2016)构建的二元经济框架,从国内贸易成本的视角,探讨了交通基础设施对企业国内贸易和出口贸易的影响机制。通过将中国交通基础设施数据与工业企业数据库合并,对交通基础设施与企业出口及国内贸易的关系进行了经验检验。结果发现,交通基础设施对企业出口和国内贸易的影响作用大相径庭。一方面,交通基础设施建设整体上不仅不会促进企业出口,而且会抑制企业出口,原因在于东部沿海与中部内陆的企业出口受到的影响完全相反,而二元经济结构的存在又将出口企业圈定在东部沿海,所以企业出口水平整体上受到抑制;另一方面,企业国内贸易得到发展归因于东部沿海与中部内陆企业的国内贸易都受到交通基础设施建设的促进作用。文章阐述了我国大规模基建的贸易成本效应,为"一带一路"国际合作和"供给侧结构性改革"的推进提供了一定的理论与经验支持。     

Disclosure Policy,Information Asymmetry,and Liquidity in Equity Markets*

Abstract. This study investigates the relation between disclosure policy and liquidity in equity markets. Disclosure policy influences market liquidity because uninformed investors “price protect” against adverse selection, and this price protection is manifested in market liquidity. Bid-ask spreads, the empirical measure of market liquidity used in this study, are predicted to be inversely related to disclosure policy. In addition, increased trading by informed traders and higher probability of information event occurrence are predicted to both increase spreads and intensify the relation between spreads and disclosure policy. These predictions apply during periods in which no news about the firm is disclosed or pending. The results show that relative bid-ask spreads for firms with disclosure rankings in the bottom third of the empirical distribution are approximately 50 percent higher than spreads for firms with disclosure rankings in the top third of the empirical distribution. Tests that assume endogenous disclosure policy reveal a significant negative relation between disclosure policy and spreads, even after controlling for the effects of return volatility, trading volume, and share price. Tests for cross-sectional variation in spreads and for the sensitivity of spreads to disclosure policy based on informed trade activity and probability of information event occurrence are generally consistent with the predictions, though these results are not statistically significant. The findings of this study are consistent with the notion that a well-regarded disclosure policy reduces information asymmetry and hence increases liquidity in equity markets. Résumé. L'auteur analyse la relation entre la politique d'information et la liquidité des marchés d'actions. La politique d'information influe sur la liquidité du marché, étant donné que les investisseurs non informés se protègent contre les choix préjudiciables en ce qui a trait aux cours, comportement de protection qui se manifeste dans la liquidité du marché. Les écarts entre les cours acheteur et vendeur, la mesure empirique de la liquidité du marché utilisée dans la présente étude, devraient présenter, selon les prévisions, une relation inverse avec la politique d'information. De plus, l'intensification de l'activité des négociateurs informés et la probabilité accrue de l'occurrence d'un événement d'information devraient, selon les prévisions, augmenter tous les deux les écarts et consolider la relation entre les écarts et la politique d'information. Ces prévisions s'appliquent aux cours des périodes dans lesquelles aucune information nouvelle au sujet de l'entreprise n'est publiée ou n'est sur le point de l'être. Les résultats démontrent que les écarts relatifs entre cours acheteur et vendeur des entreprises dont la publication d'information les place dans le tiers inférieur de la distribution empirique sont d'environ 50 pour cent supérieurs aux écarts des entreprises dont la publication d'information les place dans le tiers supérieur de la distribution empirique. Les tests qui supposent une politique d'information endogène révèlent une relation négative significative entre la politique d'information et les écarts, même après avoir contrôlé les conséquences de la volatilité du rendement, le volume des opérations et le cours de l'action. Les tests relatifs à la variation transversale des écarts et de la sensibilité des écarts à la politique d'information, basée sur l'activité de négociation informée et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement d'information, sont généralement conformes aux prévisions, bien que les résultats n'en soient pas statistiquement significatifs. Les conclusions de l'étude confirment le principe selon lequel une politique d'information bien pensée réduit l'asymétrie de l'information et, par conséquent, augmente la liquidité des marchés d'actions.     

The Competitive Impact of International Trade: The Case of Import Liberalization of the Japanese Oil Product Market

This paper analyzes the competitive impact of the recent import liberalization of the Japanese oil product market. In response to the import liberalization in March 1996, not only did the market price of gasoline decline sharply but also its domestic production kept rising and did not decline relative to imports. Moreover, its price fell substantially before the actual liberalization of the import. This paper demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the theory of implicit cartel can explain such features of the impact of import liberalization very well. The paper also identifies the significantly positive welfare impact of such liberalization due to the expansion of supply in a market with a large tax wedge between price and cost and, possibly more importantly, due to the transformation of competitive conduct from unproductive investment for cartel-rent shifting into price cuts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 397–423. Hitotsubashi University; and Keio University. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: L40, F12, K21.     

Estimating Cost Functions of Malaysian Commercial Banks: The Differential Effects of Size,Location, and Ownership*

Bank integration and competition policies are a core part of current financial reforms intended to strengthen the financial sector in Malaysia. This paper intends to clarify the production technology employed in Malaysian banks and indicate important policy implications for current bank consolidation policy. While it is essential to conduct a microeconomic analysis of the banking sector to appraise financial reform policy, Katib and Mathews (2000) is the only formal study in this area that uses micro level data on Malaysian banks. Our analysis expands on Katib and Mathews’ study in three aspects. Firstly, while Katib and Mathews employed Data Envelopment Analysis, we use estimation analysis based on a parametric approach. Secondly, we examine technological differences among Malaysian banks according to the size of operations, location of branches and ownership structure. Thirdly, we also explicitly incorporate the existence of hidden bad loans in estimating cost functions. According to our estimation analysis, there is a difference in production technology between large‐sized banks and small or medium‐sized banks. While economies of scale are observed for large‐sized banks, no economies of scope and technological progress are observed for any banks. The results of our analysis suggest that, while the current reform policy is basically appropriate, serious problems remain regarding bank consolidation and the lack of market competition.     

全球金融危机下的贸易保护主义——理论与实证分析

本文分析了全球金融危机下贸易保护主义的未来发展趋势以及实施的影响因素。通过运用非期望效用的进化博弈理论,指出全球金融危机下,国家是有限理性的,从世界整体看,合作和自由是最终的趋势;从具体各国来看,贸易保护主义的实施不仅仅由实施政策的收益和损失决定,与各国对政策决策权重的判断和程度也有密切的关系。通过美国对中国反倾销的实证分析证明了上述观点,并发现各因素与贸易保护主义实施的可能性均有正的相关性,其中收支函数的影响最大,两国之间的交互作用影响最小。在此基础上,本文提出了中国应对贸易保护主义的对策。     

Private Information Production,Public Disclosure,and the Cost of Capital: Theory and Implications*

Both private information production by market traders and public disclosure by firms contribute to dissemination of financial information in the capital market. However, the motives and economic consequences of the two are quite different. In general, private information production is intended by investors to increase their trading profit, which has the effect of widening the information gap between informed and uninformed investors and increasing the firm's cost of capital. On the other hand, public disclosure can be used to narrow this information gap and to lower the cost of capital. This paper provides a theoretical model to examine the economic incentives behind these two forms of information dissemination and their consequences on the cost of capital. By simultaneously considering the firm's and the information traders' decisions, the paper derives an equilibrium in which the amount of private information production, the level of public disclosure, and the cost of capital are all linked to specific characteristics of the firm, of information traders, and of the market. In contrast to conventional beliefs, the paper predicts that, across firms, the cost of capital can be either positively or negatively related to the firm's disclosure level, depending on the specific factors that cause the variation within a particular sample. Similarly, the extent to which investors follow a firm and the firm's disclosure level can be either positively or negatively related to each other. Implications for empirical research are discussed.     

卖空机制对证券市场的影响:基于全球市场的经验研究

长期以来理论界和实务界对于在证券市场上是否应该允许卖空存在很大的争议,争议的焦点之一就在于卖空交易是否会加大市场的波动性,甚至引发市场危机。本文选取37个国家和地区的证券市场作为研究对象,从整个市场层面探讨了卖空机制对股指收益率偏度、波动性和市场崩溃概率等的影响。经验结果显示,虽然放开卖空限制将导致股指收益率向负向偏离,但却不会加大市场的波动性,而是可以降低市场崩溃的概率。