Productivity and the Returns to Levy-Funded R&D for Sugar Production in the Eastern Counties of England

Estimates of the rate of return (ROR) to publicly funded-agricultural research are getting lower as private expenditures and spill-overs are more adequately handled. For UK sugar beet there is a pool of technology available and the spill-ins are not measurable. An alternative approach is to assume that the difference between productivity growth in sugar and the rest of UK agriculture is attributable to the Sugar Beet Research and Education Committee's R&D and extension expenditures, funded by the only long-standing producer levy in the UK. These expenditures are used to explain the difference between total factor productivity (TFP) growth in sugar (3.5 per cent per annum) and the rest of UK agriculture (2.0 per cent per annum). The producer's ROR calculated using this approach is 11 per cent and the lower bound on the total return, to producers and consumers is 21 per cent, whereas the conventional methodology gives returns of 87 per cent. Thus, the upward bias in ROR calculations may be removed by changing the approach to the problem.     

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.     

Recalibrating the reported returns to agricultural R&D: what if we all heeded Griliches?*

Zvi Griliches’ seminal analysis of hybrid corn spawned a large literature seeking to quantify and demonstrate the value of agricultural research and development (R&D) investments. The most important metric for quantifying the rate of return to R&D emerging from this literature is the internal rate of return (IRR), even though Griliches was sceptical of its usefulness as a metric in this context. An alternative metric, also reported by Griliches but not as commonly used in the subsequent returns‐to‐research literature, is the benefit–cost ratio (BCR). We assess how the implications of the returns to agricultural R&D literature may have differed if the BCR had become the standard rather than the IRR. We reveal that the IRR and BCR produce substantially different rankings of agricultural R&D projects, differences that persist even under various commodity and geographical aggregations of the BCR and IRR estimates. The median across 2,627 reported IRRs is 37.5 per cent per year. Using data gleaned from 492 research evaluation studies, we developed and deployed a methodology to impute 2,126 BCRs (median of 5.4) and modified internal rates of returns (MIRRs, median of 16.4 per cent per year) assuming a uniform 10 per cent per year discount rate and a 30 year research timeline.     

Returns to wheat breeding research in Nepal

Returns to investment in wheat breeding research in Nepal were estimated for two periods: (1) the Green Revolution period (1960–1990), when modern semidwarf wheat varieties first appeared and spread throughout the country, and (2) the post-Green Revolution period (after 1990), when first-generation modern varieties will be replaced by newer materials. Major benefits of the Nepalese wheat breeding program have included maintenance of disease resistance and faster dissemination of exotic germplasm. Attractive rates of return to investment in wheat breeding have been due in part to Nepal's ability to capture spillover benefits from neighboring countries and from international agricultural research centers.     

Assessing the returns to R&D on perennial crops: the costs and benefits of Pierce's disease research in the California winegrape industry

Several complicating issues arise in evaluating the returns to research into varietal improvements for perennial crops compared with annual crops. We elucidate and address these issues in the context of a case study of research aiming to develop varieties that are resistant to Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines. PD imposes costs of over $100 million per year on the California grape industry, even with public PD control programs in place. Research projects to develop PD resistant varieties of grapevines are at various stages of completion. We describe the economic problems posed by PD, document the research programs undertaken to address the disease and present an economic assessment of the returns to the investment, which are conditional on other policies. Using a simulation model of the market for California winegrapes, we estimate the benefits from research, development and adoption of PD‐resistant vines as ranging from $4 million to $129 million annually over a 50‐year horizon, depending on the length of the R&D lag and the rate of adoption. In addition to these specific quantitative results the paper offers insight into the broader question of economic evaluation of damage‐mitigation technology for perennial crops.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

The benefits from public agricultural research in Uruguay

We use newly constructed data to model and measure agricultural productivity growth and the returns to public agricultural research conducted in Uruguay over the period 1961–2010. We pay attention specifically to the role of levy‐based funding under INIA, which was established in 1990. Our results indicate that the creation of INIA was associated with a revitalization of funding for agricultural R&D in Uruguay, which spurred sustained growth in agricultural productivity during the past two decades when productivity growth was stagnating in many other countries. The econometric results were somewhat sensitive to specification choices. The preferred model includes two other variables with common trends, a time‐trend variable and a proxy for private research impacts, as well as a variable representing the stock of public agricultural knowledge that entailed a lag distribution with a peak impact at year 24 of the 25‐year lag. It implies a marginal benefit‐cost ratio of 48.2, using a real discount rate of 5 per cent per annum and a modified internal rate of return of 24 per cent per annum. The benefit‐cost ratio varied significantly across models with different lag structures or that omitted the trend or the private research variable, but across the same models, the modified internal rate of return was very stable, ranging from 23 per cent per annum to 27 per cent per annum. These results suggest that the revitalized investment in research spending under INIA has been very profitable for Uruguay and that a greater rate of investment would have been justified.     

The economic and poverty impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa

This article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa from 1981 to 2005, and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region. Adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5% of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60% in 2005, yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development (R&D) investment of 43%. The estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s. Over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at IITA and CIMMYT. The article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region.     

Economic Returns to Feed Barley Yield-increasing and Disease Resistance Research at the Alberta Field Crop Development Centre

The Alberta Field Crop Development Centre (FCDC) at Lacombe has carried out an extensive research and development program on feed barley since 1973. Prior to 2002, FCDC released 11 hulled and six hull-less barley varieties that have been adopted by farmers. The primary objective of this study is to estimate an economic rate of return to the FCDC barley research and development program from 1973 to 2001. A secondary objective is to include benefits arising from research that improved feed barley disease resistance in new cultivars in addition to benefits from purely higher-yielding cultivar research. The analysis uses an ex post economic surplus methodology. Benefits are identified and empirically investigated for three separate FCDC feed barley research thrusts:
• benefits arising from FCDC research that developed new, higher-yielding feed barley cultivars that give a yield advantage
• benefits arising from FCDC research that improved feed barley disease resistance in new cultivars that result in yield loss avoidance from disease
• benefits arising from FCDC research that developed new feed barley cultivars that yield higher silage production.
Of the total benefits from research on feed grain varieties, 52% can be attributed to yield advantage research and 48% to yield loss avoidance research. The overall internal rate of return with base elasticity parameters is estimated at 27%, ranging between 23% and 31%, depending on the assumptions made about the yield advantage and base variety. The IRR was sensitive to changes in supply elasticities and ranges from 20% (∈= 1.5) to 54% (∈= 0.1).     

Linking technical change to research effort: an examination of aggregation and spillovers effects

We used a disaggregate approach to examine investment efficiency of wheat breeding research in India. India's total research effort comprizes 20 research programs spread across 50 experiment stations. A technology spillover matrix was constructed for both potential and actual spillovers. Spillovers and free‐riding were dominant characteristics of technical change during the period studied. Although the aggregate rate of return to wheat improvement research in India was estimated to be 55%, eight programs were found to have earned a negative rate of return when spillins were taken into account. Research output is concentrated on a few strong programs. The two strongest programs generated 75% of all the technical change benefits, even though they claimed just 22% of research resources. These two programs include a significant degree of overlap, while on the other hand many farmers were not reached by any of the programs – 56 and 78% of rainfed and durum area, respectively, in 1990 was still sown with pre‐1976 varieties.     

Research and productivity in Thai agriculture

This paper examines the impact that publicly funded agricultural research has on productivity in crop production within Thailand. It tests empirically the two hypotheses that, first, publicly funded research and development (R&D) in crop production is a significant determinant of total factor productivity (TFP) in the crop sector and, second, that its social rate of return is high. The statistical analysis applies error correction methods to national level time series data for Thailand, covering the period 1970–2006. Emphasis is given to public research in crop production, where most publicly funded agricultural R&D has occurred. The role of international research spillovers and other possible determinants of TFP are also taken into account. The results demonstrate that public investment in research has a positive and significant impact on TFP. International research spillovers have also contributed to TFP. The results support the finding of earlier studies that returns on public research investment have been high. This result holds even after controlling for possible sources of upward biases present in most such studies, due to the omission of alternative determinants of measured TFP. The findings raise a concern over declining public expenditure on crop research, in Thailand and many other developing countries.     

Canadian dairy policy and the returns to federal dairy cattle research

The economic surplus approach is used to estimate the returns to federal investments in dairy cattle research in Canada. A national supply function is estimated using time series data. Lagged research expenditures are included as explanatory variables in the model, facilitating the calculation of ***marginal as well as average benefits from research. Simulation analysis is used to study the effects of product market distortions associated with Canadian dairy policy as well as of the marginal excess burden on the rates of return to research and on the distribution of research benefits. Returns were found to be high at the margin. Distortions in the product market had a small effect on the overall returns to dairy cattle research but had a large impact on the distribution of research benefits. Rate of return estimates were found to be indicative of underinvestment even when the marginal excess burden was taken into account.     

A Comparison of Ex Post and Ex Ante Measures of Producers' Surplus in Estimating the Returns to Canadian Federal Sheep Research

The returns to Canadian federal sheep research expenditures between 1968 and 1984 are estimated using the economic surplus approach. Ex post and ex ante measures of the change in producers' surplus are compared. Regression analysis is used to estimate the lag structure of the effects of research on the national supply function, facilitating the estimation of returns on average and at the margin. The effect of the excess burden of tax collection on returns to sheep research is investigated. The internal rate of return to sheep research has been about 25% at the margin exclusive of the effects of the excess burden. This rate of return falls to 20% when the costs of an excess burden of 20 cents on the dollar is assumed. Nous calculons le rendement estimatif des défenses consacrées à la recherche sur le mouton par le gouvernement du Canada entre 1968 et 1984 à ?aide ?une méthode fondée sur les surplus économiques. Nous comparons les mesures objectives (ex post) et subjectives (ex ante) des changements survenus au chapitre des excédents à la production. ?analyse de régression nous permet ?estimer la structure de retard des effets de la recherche sur la fonction de ?approvisionnement national, ce qui facilite ?évaluation du rendement moyen et du rendement à la marge. Nous examinons également les effets du fardeau excessif de ?impôt sur le rendement de la recherche sur le mouton. Le taux interne de rendement de la recherche portant sur le mouton a été évalué à environ 25% à la marge, en excluant les effets du fardeau excessif. Ce taux de rendement est abaissé à 20 % lorsqu'on tient compte ?un coût présumé du fardeau excessif de 20 cents par dollar.     

The economic impact of productivity maintenance research: breeding for leaf rust resistance in modern wheat⋆

This paper reports the results of a study undertaken to estimate the economic impact in developing countries of efforts by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) to breed leaf rust resistant spring bread wheat varieties since 1973. The challenge in estimating these benefits lies in the pathogen's ability to mutate to new races, which may infect previously resistant varieties. Genetic resistance, rather than fungicide application, is the principal means of controlling leaf rust in developing countries. Whereas productivity enhancement is often estimated in terms of yield gains and increased supply, productivity maintenance is measured in terms of the yield losses avoided by the research investment. The internal rate of return on CIMMYT's research investment was estimated at 41%. When discounted by 5%, the net present value was US$ 5.36 billion in 1990 dollars, and the benefit‐cost ratio was 27:l. These findings emphasise the economic importance of maintenance research in crop breeding programs.     

An Economic Evaluation of Public Wheat Research and Extension Expenditures in Canada*

The widespread commitment of public funds to agricultural research is being questioned by administrators in governments and by the Canadian public. Questions relating to the level of public expenditure on agricultural research, the efficiency with which the resources are being allocated, and the manner in which the benefits are distributed among members of society art being asked. This study addresses these and related questions as they pertain to publicly funded wheat research activities conducted over the period 1946 to 1979- Two research scenarios were examined - one dealing with the development of new varieties of wheat and the other dealing with all research applicable to the production of wheat. The results revealed that society has indeed benefitted substantially from public investment in wheat research. The level of social benefits averaged $49 and $143 million (measured in 1971 dollars) annually for the wheat breeding and all-wheat research scenarios, respectively. The average annual internal rates of return earned from these public investments ranged between 30 and 39 percent. Furthermore, some evidence was presented that suggests society may, in fact, be underin-vesting in agricultural research in the aggregate. Finally, analyses of the distribution of the benefits showed that both producers and consumers are major beneficiaries.     

Publicly-funded UK agricultural R&D and 'social' total factor productivity

Most studies concerned with measuring the rate of return to publicly‐funded agricultural R&D investment have found high returns, suggesting under‐investment, and calls for increased expenditure have been common. However, the evaluation of returns tends to measure the effect of research expenditure against growth in total factor productivity (TFP), based on market inputs and outputs. When compared against growing public unease over the environmental effects of pursuing agricultural productivity growth, TFP indices become a misleading measure of growth. This paper integrates some non‐market components into the TFP index. The costs of two specific externalities of agricultural production, namely fertiliser and pesticide pollution, are integrated in a TFP index constructed for the period 1948–1995. This adjusted, or ‘social’, TFP index is measured against UK public R&D expenditures. The rates of return to agricultural R&D are reduced by using the ‘social’ as opposed to the traditional TFP index. Whilst both remain at justifiable levels, previous studies appear to have over‐estimated the effect of agricultural R&D expenditures. Furthermore, with changes in policy towards more socially acceptable but non‐productivity enhancing outcomes, such as animal welfare, rural diversification and organic farming, the future framework for analysing returns to agricultural R&D should not be so dependent on productivity growth as an indicator of research effectiveness.     

Financial activity in agricultural futures markets: evidence from quantile regressions

This study analyses the relationship between financial activity and price returns in 12 US agricultural futures markets. It contributes to the existing research by exploring the forecasting power of trading activity for returns from the perspective of conditional quantiles. Quantile regressions detect Granger‐causal effects from positions of speculators and index traders to price returns in a wide range of commodity markets such as cocoa, coffee, corn, sugar and SRW wheat.     

Adoption and Ex-post Impacts of Improved Cowpea Varieties on Productivity and Net Returns in Nigeria

Cowpea covers the largest area of any grain legume in Africa and is especially important in West Africa where Nigeria and Niger alone account for over 75% of the total cowpea production in the world. Despite successes of international and national cowpea improvement research in the development and release of several improved varieties, there is limited empirical evidence of adoption and ex-post impacts of improved cowpea. Using a nationally representative survey data from a sample of 1,525 cowpea-growing households in northern Nigeria cultivating over 2,500 cowpea plots, we assess the adoption and impacts of improved cowpea varieties on cowpea yields, net returns and production costs. We apply a control function approach and propensity score matching models to estimate the causal effects of adoption of improved cowpea varieties . Our results show that 38% of the cowpea plots were planted with improved varieties, and cowpea yields, net returns and production costs increase significantly with the adoption of improved cowpea varieties. Adoption of improved cowpea varieties is associated on average with 26% yield gains, 61% increase in net returns and 14% increase in production costs. We also show that farmers who have a lower propensity to adopt improved cowpea varieties also face higher costs of production.     

Exploring the widening food gap: an international perspective

Using data for a long panel of 90 developed and developing countries, this article explores the effects of research and development (R&D) and fixed capital stock on agricultural land productivity over the period 1961–2012. Instruments are used for R&D to deal with feedback effects and measurement errors. The results show very high social returns to investment in R&D and to fixed capital stock, suggesting that increasing investment in these factors are promising ways of arresting the increasing food prices due to increasing demand for animal protein, population growth, desertification, salinization, soil erosion, climate change, and decreasing growth in land productivity.     

Productivity growth and the returns from public investment in R&D in Australian broadacre agriculture

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. Investment in R&D has been flat while productivity growth has remained strong, relative both to other sectors of the Australian economy and to the agricultural sectors of other countries. Such productivity growth, at a time when the decline in terms of trade facing Australian farmers has slowed, may have enhanced the competitiveness of Australian agriculture. The econometric results presented here suggest no evidence of a decline in the returns from research from the 15 to 40 per cent per annum range estimated by Mullen and Cox. In fact the marginal impact of research increases with research over the range of investment levels experienced from 1953 to 2000, a finding which lends support to the view that there is underinvestment in agricultural research. These results were obtained from econometric models which maintain strong assumptions about how investments in research and extension translate into changes in TFP. Hence some caution in interpreting the results is warranted.