东部7省水产品出口对渔业经济发展的影响研究

本文选取了我国东部地区的辽宁、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南这7个渔业大省作为研究对象,以2002—2007年的水产品出口额、固定资产投资额、渔业劳动力和渔业经济产值数据为样本,采用出口扩展型生产函数模型,运用面板数据进行实证分析并测算各省水产品出口的贡献率。结果得出这7个省水产品出口都对渔业经济增长有正向的拉动作用,且各省拉动作用的趋势。最后,根据结论提出相关的政策建议。     

The influence of immigration and international tourism on the demand for imported food products

The role of immigration and international tourism in food product imports, as two factors which potentially influence the (trans-) formation of tastes in a country, is theoretically and empirically analysed. In using an econometric error-correction specification of an import demand function, the scale of the impact of these two factors is estimated for the case of Germany (annual data from 1967 to 1990). The results show that, while aggregate food import demand from India, Thailand, China and Turkey is inelastic with regard to migration to Germany and international travel activities of Germans to these destinations, the estimated average elasticities for imports of wine, cheese and processed/preserved vegetables from France and Italy are all well above unity, thus suggesting that immigration and international tourism may indeed affect the import demand for certain food products.     

江苏省东陇海产业带区域发展能力评价与提升策略

以市区和县域为研究单元,从经济发展推动力、社会发展支撑力、资源环境承裁力3个方面构建区域发展能力指标体系,采用熵值法进行量化分析并进行发展能力评价;从省城层面看,该区域发展能力明显弱于省平均水平;从区域内部看,发展能力差距明显,综合发展能力优势集中在东陇海产业带的增长极核区域;提出提升区域发展能力的基本策略:深化区域分工、接收转移产业,完善基础设施,涵养资源环境,整合空间结构.     

我国水产品海／淡比重对城镇居民额外消费支出的影响

我国水产品存在“质量”引致城镇居民额外消费支出现象,论文以Deaton理论为依据,利用VECM模型研究了海／淡产品结构对额外“质量”支出的影响。研究结果表明,海／淡比重调整是我国城镇居民“质量”消费支出增长的诱因,二者呈负相关关系,其中海水贝类与淡水甲壳类是导致该现象的重要因素。因此,一方面对水产品未来需要更全面和细分的价格监控,另一方面扩大海水产品比重（特别是贝类）有利于缓解城镇居民购买水产品时的额外支出增长。     

舟山水产品产量结构及渔业人力资源结构分析

水产品产量结构与人力资源结构是渔业产业转型升级路径研究的基础内容,本文通过因子分析法对2000-2013年舟山市水产品产量结构和渔业人力资源结构进行了分析。结果显示:水产品产量结构的综合得分总体趋势呈上升,第一公因子是捕捞因子,第二公因子是养殖因子;渔业人力资源结构的综合得分总体趋势呈下降,公因子是其他因子。建议调整舟山水产品产量结构,发展远洋渔业及海水养殖产业;人力资源结构调整应向水产品精深加工和贸易方面展开。     

湖南省经济空间结构演变及其经济溢出效应研究

以县域为基本空间单元,以人均GDP为衡量指标分析湖南省经济空间结构演变过程,结果表明,自1990年代中期以来,湖南省县域经济处于空间集聚过程中,经济空间结构呈现明显的核心—边缘模式。通过模型对经济空间格局的经济增长效应的分析表明,湖南省县域间经济增长的空间相关性不显著。HH型县域集聚区内部经济发展相互促进作用有限,区域经济之间的相关性不明显;HL型县域与相邻县域呈负相关,其经济发展剥夺了外围县域的发展机会;LH型县域获得高水平发展县域的辐射获得很快发展,有向HH型转变的趋势;LL型县域之间的经济溢出效应不显著。     

The role of expected protein levels in determining the impact of protein premiums and discounts: a note

Fraser (1997) considered the impact of protein premiums and discounts on a grower's income stream and willingness-to-pay for a forward contract where the protein premium and discount system is centred on a grower's existing expected protein level. This article extends these results to consider the impact of a protein premium and discount system which is not centred on a grower's existing expected protein level. The article suggests that the grower's existing expected protein level plays a crucial role in determining the impact of the system.     

Commercial release of first-generation genetically modified food products in New Zealand: using a partial equilibrium trade model to assess the impact on producer returns in New Zealand

In the present paper, the impact of genetically modified (GM) food production on producers, consumers and trade in New Zealand is simulated under various scenarios using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). The LTEM simulates, against various assumptions of proportions of GM/GM-free production, the impact of various scenarios relating to preference for or against GM production. The results from this preliminary analysis show that the greatest positive impact on New Zealand income is from following a GM-free strategy, where it is assumed such markets as the European Union and Japan have a large switch in preference away from GM food, followed by the scenario when there is a 20% preference for GM-free.     

Global food demand,productivity growth,and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio‐energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land‐use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.     

The Impact of Sustainability Aspects in the Meat Sector: A Cluster Analysis Based on Consumer Attitudes and Store Format Choice

Several consumer studies have shown considerable market potential for sustainable meat products, however, their markets shares are still marginal. In Germany, the sustainable aspects “organic,” “local origin,” and “animal welfare” are of special interest. To obtain a precise overview of potential target groups for these meat categories and their choice of store format, 620 German consumers were surveyed on their attitudes toward sustainable meat production and their shopping behavior. First, target groups based on consumers’ attitudes were identified by cluster analysis, taking into account possible overlaps. Consumers were also clustered by their store format choice and their preferred type of meat packaging. A cross tabulation of the results then provided insights into which store format and type of meat packaging is preferred by the target groups for sustainable meat products. Due to overlaps found in the target groups, the existence of important subgroups was shown. Amongst the target groups, only a slight preference for unpackaged meat products was found. Basically, the offer of sustainable meat products appears of interest for all store formats, with particular emphasis on supermarkets. The results of this study can support producers and retailers developing new and tailored marketing strategies for sustainable meat products.     

The positive impacts of irrigation schedules on rice yield and water consumption: synergies in Jilin Province,Northeast China

Food and water security in China are inextricably linked to the development of regional economy, especially for regions with temporary or sustained water shortage such as Jilin Province in northeast China. Water-saving irrigation practices are therefore urgently sought to maintain sustainable growth in grain production. To improve knowledge of the effect of irrigation water level on rice yield and water-use efficiency (WUE), we conducted a field experimental study over two growing seasons in central Jilin. The irrigation experiment included four schedules: (1) traditional irrigation (CK), (2) shallow wet irrigation (T1), (3) intermittent irrigation (T2), and (4) controlled irrigation (T3). Soil test pits were used to estimate evapotranspiration and seepage. The study showed that T3 had the highest WUE (1.64?kg/m³). However, the highest rice yield was found in T1 (9867?kg/ha¹) that achieved the second highest WUE (1.63?kg/m³). Compared with CK, T1 and T3 consumed 7.3% and 36.1% less water, respectively. If adopted at the operational scale, these two schedules could help reduce the pressure of local surface water supply and the production costs significantly. The results gained from this study could also have relevant implication in developing an effective irrigation management for other high-latitude regions.     

论习惯水权——以滇东永善县坝村为例

在法律不入之地或传统农村,规范水资源仍然依赖于一套行之有效的经验法则。不同的传统习惯水权能保障人们对水的基本需求,使其在饮水、灌溉、储水、引水、汲水、排水及水利方面有合理保障。由于先于官方法律而存在,后起的水法体系使水权习惯与之有冲突亦有融合。只有认识到习惯水权的价值并使双方相互调适起来,才能更好实现两者的双重合法化。这样,习惯水权不但成为官方法律的补充,也成为一套被官民双方承认的法系统。