劳动力市场转型和发育的中国经验

在预测中国改革和发展的成功可能性时,大多数观察者都把庞大的人口规模从而产生的就业压力,作为头一位的挑战。20世纪90年代后期以来,人们又把目光集中到严峻的城市下岗和失业,以及农村劳动力大规模向城市流动所反映的农村就业不足现象。仅仅从表面上观察20世纪90年代后期经历宏观经济低潮之后的中国劳动力市场,人们往往把当时的劳动力市场冲击,     

对治理失业问题的几点思考

当前,城市职工大量下岗,农村剩余劳动力不断增多。面对这严重的失业和下岗问题,如何治理是新世纪的热门话题。本文就治理失业中出现的问题谈几点思考。一、当前失业治理中的几点误区误区之一。面对失业过程中城乡就业矛盾的冲突,许多地方政府把外来劳动力,特别是农村劳动力看作是城镇职工就业的竞争对手,从而制定了一系列排斥和歧视农村人口就业的政策。例如,通过加大各种收费来阻止农村劳动力向城镇转移;明确规定诸多岗位不允许雇用外地劳动力;以"再就业工程"名义,通过奖罚手段诱导企业用本地下岗职工替代外来劳动力;某些部门直接清退农民临时工来安置下岗工人等。而事实上农村劳动力与城镇劳动者的就业领域在很大程度上并不重合,所以这些政策不仅不利于劳动力市场发育,也无助于降低城市的     

再就业──一个沉重的话题

1996年底,我国城镇登记在册的失业人员达到552万人,失业率为3％。进入1997年以后,“下岗”、“再就业”、“失业”等字眼频频出现在报刊杂志和电视屏幕上,因为,社会已经轰然敲响了失业的警钟：除去登记在册的以外,城市还有下岗职工900万人人外,“九五”期间,国有企业还将分流多余职工1500万人,而城镇新增劳动力达到7000万人,农村新增和富余劳动力将有4000万人向城市转移！更可怕的是,短期内这股下岗待业的势头还很难遏制。失业、待业、下岗意味着对么是显而易见的。这是一个已经无法回避的难题。政府在关注、在行动,社会在思考…     

青铜峡市灵活就业农民获领《就业失业登记证》

根据宁夏自治区[2009]28号文件精神,青铜峡市劳动就业局对该市所有的城镇、农村进城务工人员在本市稳定就业满6个月的,失业后都进行失业登记,并给予免费发放《就业失业登记证》,对已领取《失业证》、《再就业优惠证》的免费换发《就业失业登记证》,同时对办理《就业失业登记证》的城乡劳动者实行登记备案制,使《就业失业登记证》成为城乡劳动者双向流动就业的“绿色通行证”。此项政策的执行,打破了城乡户籍制度的区别,完善了城乡就业、失业登记制度,使城乡统筹就业迈上了一个新台阶。真正体现了科学发展观的人本服务理念,将为全市城镇失业人员、农村富余劳动力就业情况的统计工作奠定坚实的基础。     

“二阶段”框架下农村劳动力流向多元化的微观机制研究

完整的劳动力流动应包括一次决策和二次决策两个阶段,文章据此构建了"二阶段"框架下农村劳动力流向多元化的微观机制分析模型,并通过经验数据实证检验后发现:(1)在乡城迁移-城乡回流模型中,预期净经济收益是决策流向的关键变量。城乡工资性收入差距和城乡非工资性收益差距的存在和扩大对劳动力流动具有推动作用,而城乡生活成本差距和心理成本差额的存在和扩大则会阻滞劳动力流动。(2)在折回式回流模型中,城市生活能力水平是决策城乡回流、折回式回流或是继续留城的关键变量。城市的经济发展水平和工资水平方面的比较优势,有利于提高劳动力城市生活能力,而较高的基本消费水平和居住消费水平则削弱了劳动力的城市生活能力。     

基于劳动力市场理论的大学生失业问题探析

大学生失业现象普遍存在,在当前经济形势下,较高的失业率表现为结构性失业和摩擦性失业。造成失业的原因多样,研究显示,劳动力市场方面的影响不容忽视,特别是我国劳动力市场存在的市场分割、信息不对称和市场成本高的问题。构建高效的劳动力市场是降低失业的重要手段,亦须从市场的角度寻找改善途径。     

我国劳动就业的走势及战略对策

在社会转型和经济转轨的进程中,我国面临着前所未有的就业压力:劳动力供求总量矛盾突出,就业结构矛盾交织,劳动力流动频率加快,劳资矛盾和纠纷攀升,失业呈现群体特征等等。现行劳动就业体制缺陷犹存,应采取综合性的措施,实施新的就业战略,以发挥政府在就业机制中的促进作用。     

我国失业状况综合测度结构体系研究——基于探索性和验证性因子分析框架的检验

通过文献研究、问卷调查等方式,运用探索性和验证性因子分析方法,构建失业综合测度指标体系以及失业综合指数来对我国目前失业状况进行探讨。研究结果表明,失业综合状况测度体系可以从劳动力供给、劳动力需求、劳动力市场运行效率以及公共就业扶持程度等四个维度来进行分析;与单一的城镇登记失业率相比,基于测度指标体系的失业综合指数能更全面、客观、科学地表征当前的失业程度,相对于时间间隔期较长的调查失业率的方式,该指数在时间连续性、操作性上优势显著,可以为失业预警预测提供理论支撑。     

劳动力市场分割与劳动力资源错配:基于城市层面的测度

基于“价格法”测算城市劳动力市场分割和劳动力资源错配的基础上,利用工具变量双向固定效应模型分析劳动力市场分割对劳动力资源错配的影响,并探讨了这种影响的异质性。研究发现,城市劳动力市场分割程度的提高将显著降低城市劳动力资源配置效率,提高劳动力资源错配程度,这种影响主要是通过限制劳动力流动和抑制就业市场规模扩大进而造成“劳动力-岗位”匹配失衡引起的。异质性分析表明劳动力市场分割对劳动力资源错配的影响在经济相对落后,劳动力配置过度的四五线城市和西部及东北部地区更加显著。研究将市场分割的测度推进到劳动力要素和城市层面,提出了我国进一步建设全国统一要素市场,畅通劳动力在区域之间转移的政策建议。     

劳动力市场分割对农村劳动供给行为的影响分析

中国劳动力市场明显地分割为农村就业部门、城市非正规就业部门和城市正规就业部门。由于劳动力市场分割,劳动者并不能够在各种不同的市场上自由流动,农村劳动者被限制在农村就业部门和城市的非正规就业部门。这两个部门对劳动者的人力资本特征并无太高的要求,劳动者收入的高低仅仅与自己付出的劳动量有关。这种状况刺激了劳动供给的增加,抑制了农村家庭进行人力资本积累的积极性。因此,消除劳动力市场的各种分割,促进劳动力在更大的地域空间和职业空间内流动,应当成为未来劳动力政策的重点。     

农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素分析

文中从宏观和微观两个层面对农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素进行了分析,在此基础上建了多元线性回归的计量模型,并利用2000年到2009年间的统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,务农和进城打工的收入差距、进城打工收入与城镇居民收入之间的差距和城镇失业率这三个宏观层面的因素是影响农村劳动力向城市迁移的主要因素。     

Regional Unemployment in Transitional China: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to explain the pattern of regional unemployment in transitional China. A model is developed to explore how urban unemployment in the provinces is influenced by peasants' wages, formal sector wages, and the size of the formal sector. Evidence from panel data suggests that a significant indicator of high unemployment rates is greater Urban–Rural Income Inequality within the province. The hypothesis is that the urban–rural income gap produces migration, and more rural migrants substitute for urban workers, causing further urban unemployment.Since the economic reforms began in 1978, the non-state owned enterprises have been carrying an increasing weight in the economy, and they have contributed significantly to the rapid economic growth of China. Empirical evidence shows that economic reforms have reduced unemployment. The provinces that are still heavily dependent on the state sector are therefore more likely to experience higher unemployment.     

国内失业问题研究最新进展

从失业的性质和原因、农村劳动力的转移和经济增长、失业统计和失业现状、缓解失业的对策措施等四个方面介绍了当前国内理论界对我国失业问题研究的最新进展,并进行了简要评述.本文认为,当前我国对失业问题的理论研究取得了重大进展,为促进就业奠定了理论基础.但和我国日益严峻的就业形势相比,失业理论的研究总体滞后,创新不够.     

城乡收入差距对城镇失业的影响及对策分析

当前我国城乡收入差距日益扩大引发了庞大的乡-城人口流动,在一定程度上加剧了城镇的高失业状况.正确认识这种状况,需要运用适当的理论,予以科学的分析.利用托达罗模型对此现象进行了理论分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对城乡收入差距加剧我国城镇失业问题进行了实证检验,最后提出了短期内利用新农村建设缓解我国城镇失业压力的政策措施及建议.     

Does early intervention help the unemployed youth?

This paper evaluates a measure targeted at unemployed individuals aged 20–24. The main purpose of the measure is to prevent long-term unemployment by guaranteeing an assignment to some labor market program within 100 days of unemployment. Municipalities voluntarily agree to offer the guarantee. To identify the effect of the measure, we use three conditions: The guarantee covers individuals aged 24 but not 25, one fifth of the municipalities does not provide the guarantee, and the guarantee existed in 1998 but not in 1997. We find no evidence that the measure did significantly improve the future labor market situation of the youth, which suggests that early intervention in the unemployment spell is not important.     

The social meaning of female participation in the labor force

Female participation in the labor force in the states of America was strongly associated with male participation in the labor force. Participation was higher in states which were in the north, which were more urban and where unemployment was less. Thus, female labor force participation appears to be affected by general social conditions which affect both sexes alike.     

Emigration,unemployment and welfare – The role of non-traded sector

In this paper we examine the consequences of skilled versus unskilled labor migration on the welfare of remaining residents (RR) in an economy characterized by unemployment of unskilled labor. It is established that emigration of unskilled workers necessarily raises both the level of employment and the welfare of RR. However, this result need not hold when skilled workers emigrate freely. In obtaining these results we emphasize the critical significance of the non-traded sector in an economy.     

Labor market outcomes,savings accumulation,and return migration

In this paper, I examine the determinants of return migration from Germany for immigrants from four different source countries, and test the savings accumulation conjecture that is used to rationalize return migration decisions using both cross-country and time variation in purchasing power parity. The empirical results confirm the savings accumulation conjecture. Therefore, return migration can be seen as part of optimal life-cycle location choices in this context. I also examine how labor market outcomes influence return decisions. A key finding here is that unlike previous studies, which find a positive impact of unemployment on return migration, I find that the direction of the impact of unemployment changes by the spell length.     

Migration and the wage and unemployment gaps between urban and non-urban sectors: A dynamic general equilibrium reinterpretation of the Harris–Todaro equilibrium

This paper offers a dynamic general equilibrium reinterpretation of the static partial migration equilibrium by Harris and Todaro [Harris, J., Todaro, M., 1970. Migration, unemployment and development; a two-sector analysis. American Economic Review 60, 126–142], under (i) flexible urban and rural wages and (ii) free mobility of workers and free entry of firms. The proposed model accounts for the set of stylized facts in developing countries: rural to urban migration and higher urban wages and unemployment.The model allows us to view the wage gap as a compensating differential for the negative amenities associated with job destruction and subsequent costly search on the consumption side, which can also be seen as a match-specific premium based on a sectoral productivity differential on the production side. Our model predicts the comovements among urban and non-urban wages and migration flows to the urban sector, an empirical regularity observed over the urbanization process of developing economies. Finally, we also conduct a welfare analysis.     

Migration: the trends converge

Formerly, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have served as permanent destinations for immigrants, while Europe's migrants have moved to more northerly countries to work for a time and then returned home. From 1973-1975 Europe's recruitment of foreign workers virtually ended, although family reunion for those immigrants allowed in was encouraged. Problems resulting from this new settlement migration include low paying jobs for immigrant women, high unemployment, and inadequate education for immigrant children. Illegal migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean enter the US and Canada each year while illegal North African immigrants enter Italy, Spain, and Greece. North America, Australia, and Europe have all received political refugees from Asia and Latin America. Increasingly, these foreigners compete in the labor market rather than simply fill jobs the native workers do not want. All the receiving countries have similar policy priorities: 1) more effective ways for controlling and monitoring inflows and checking illegal immigration; 2) encouraging normal living patterns and accepting refugees; and 3) integrating permanent migrants into the host country. Europe's public immigration encouragement prior to the first oil shock, has left some countries with a labor force that is reluctant to return home. It is unlikely that Europe will welcome foreign labor again in this decade, since unemployment among young people and women is high and family reunion programs may still bring in many immigrants. Less immigration pattern change will probably occur in North America, Australia, and New Zealand since these countries' populations are still growing and wages are more flexible. Immigration, regulated by policy, and emigration, determined by market forces, now are working in the same direction and will likely reduce future migration flows.