浅谈美国要求人民币升值的目的

人民币升值问题一直是近年来中美两国争论的焦点之一.人民币一直在持续升值也已成为不争的事实.文章从经济和政治角度分析了美国迫使人民币升值的真正目的,揭露了美国力图独霸世界、遏制中国崛起的险恶用心.     

他山之石,可否攻玉(之五)——日本经济发展中文化因素的作用

<正> 第二次世界大战之后,日本以其令人惊异的速度很快在战争的废墟上建设成为全世界各国刮目相看的经济强国。经济学家们对其背后的原因深感兴趣,有人从经济政策的角度探讨了日本发展的秘密,也有人从世界经济格局的重构乃至美国利益扶持等角度提出了见解。然而更多的人发现,日本文化在其经济发展中扮演了不可忽视的角色。比起东方人来说,西方尤其是美国人更为重视这一点。日本成为美国在世界市场上最强大的竞争对手,使美国朝野上下都开始注意起了对“东方文化”的研究。     

美国货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应研究

随着全球化进程的加快,世界各国之间的经济联系不断加深.美国在全球经济中扮演着超级大国的地位,其货币政策的溢出效应也十分显著.本文以中关两国货币政策的联动为研究对象,使用SVAR方法从利率、货币供应量以及货币政策自主性三个角度分析了美国货币政策的溢出效应,结论是美国货币政策对中国货币政策存在溢出效应.     

美国金融危机引发的多米诺骨牌效应

2008年源于次级抵押贷款的美国金融危机的爆发,它以空前的规模迅速蔓延,引发了一场全球性的多米诺骨牌效应,对世界经济产生了深远的影响。从分析美国的次级债危机开始,详细探讨了美国金融危机的爆发以及对欧洲和亚洲经济的影响;并以中国为例,阐述了中国应从中获得的启示及中国政府目前采取的有力措施;最后,从发展的角度审视了中国应积极地面对金融危机带来的机遇与挑战。     

美国“再工业化”的影响与前景分析

本文以美国为研究对象,从制成品和高技术产品的角度分析“再工业化”战略对美国及世界整体经济的影响,并对其进行前景预测,进而得到对我国的启示.     

投入产出视角的中国宏观经济发展特质研究——基于自主构建的VaR模型展开

自2008年美国次级贷危机以来,全球经济受其影响,增长乏力.面对这种发展环境,如何持续深入地发展中国宏观经济就成为当务之急.结合这一时代大背景,从投入产出角度出发,就中国宏观经济的特质进行计量经济分析.通过成功构建的VaR模型,从五大类投入因素角度对中国宏观经济发展的特质及变化规律进行了有效总结.最后在此基础上,就中国宏观经济如何转型跨越发展提出了具体的对策与建议.     

经济安全中的国家主义思想——访中国现代国际关系研究院经济安全研究中心主任江涌

《经济》:您从经济安全研究的角度,如何看待中美经济关系? 江涌:中美经济关系实质上是一种不对称的单向依附关系,即美国对中国的依赖远远小于中国对美国的依赖.在国家关系上,依赖小的一方就能获得一种特权来敲打依赖大的一方.中国在经济、技术,市场、营销、品牌、融资、投资、人才、思想、秩序方面对美国的依赖十分明显,比如:中国依靠美国的投行、金融机构进行投资;美国为中国培养许多高端人才;中国继承美国整套经济思想,比较典型的就是"芝加哥男孩"、"伯克利黑帮";中国依靠美元秩序、布雷顿森林体系等.中国对美国的依赖是全方位、不对称的,而美国对中国的依赖可以替换,美国随时可以将生产地转向越南、印度等国家,这也是导致我国经济下滑的原因之一,比如:我国长三角、珠三角出口下滑20-30％,原因就是美国企业搬出.     

本刊特别推荐

书名：《当代美国经济》 内容简介：本书分别从经济纵横、产业结构、微观基础、宏观调控和环境保护几个角度对美国经济进行了全方位的介绍，不仅对2007年全球金融危机以来美国经济受到的影响、美国经济的现状和未来趋势做出了整体的分析和预测，更深入美国的产业结构，对美国的农业、制造业、服务业和能源业进行了仔细的剖析。     

九七世界经济形势的特点和趋势

1996年世界经济平稳发展、运行良好,总体形势好于1995年,预计1997年将保持较强增长势头.据国际货币基金组织预测,1996年世界经济增长率为3.8%,高于1995年增长3.5%的水平,1997年世界经济增长率可达4.1%.国际货币基金组织统计和预测,1995、1996和1997年,发达国家经济增长率分别为2.1%、2.3%和2.5%.美国经济实力回升和竞争力不断提高,引起国际社会的关注.从1993年到1996年,美国经济持续4年增长,年均增长率达2.6%;失业率从1993年1月的7.1%降至1996年9月的5.2%,4年来增加了1070万个就业岗位;联邦财政赤字从1992年度的2904亿美元降至1996年度的1090亿美元,4年来减少63%;劳动生产率(非农业部门)从1993年的0.2%提高到1996年上半年的0.9%;出口大幅度增加,1993年增长3.7%,1995年增长14.6%,1996年头7个月增长7.8%;通货膨胀率继续控制在3%以下的低水平.预计1996年美国经济增长率可达2.6%,高于1995年2%的增长水平.美国从80年代初开始的经济政策大调整已见成效,并继续发挥积极作用,主要表现在:摆脱了“滞胀”困境,走上了低通货膨胀条件下的经济持续增长;从后工业社会迈向信息社会;在全球竞争力提高,美国已连续三年成为世界竞争力最强的国家.美国经济中仍面临平衡预算、社会福利机制改革和外贸逆差等问题.但是,美     

美国学派的生态经济思想及启示

19世纪的美国学派是西方现代生态经济学的真正先驱。美国学派从多维度的角度出发,系统阐述了生态经济学的核心思想。其思想深度远远超越了建立在西方主流经济学方法论基础上的现代生态经济学。美国学派不仅较早地实现了生态学与经济学的融合,而且提出了更加合理的可持续发展观,并从国际贸易视角阐释了生态危机的根源,从工农协调、城乡平衡、区域平衡等角度寻求解决生态问题的对策。美国学派的生态经济先驱思想对解决目前我国的生态经济问题依然具有借鉴意义。     

美国次贷金融危机对中国经济的影响

美国次贷危机以次级贷款危机为起点,迅速蔓延到美国的金融、股市、房地产市场乃至整个美国经济,并且随着全球经济链条进一步扩展到世界各地,进而演变成为全球性经济危机。基于美国处于世界经济的核心地位和中国经济、产业、金融、外汇的特殊性,中国政府必须进一步结合自身经济特点,采取积极、合理的政策应对美国次贷金融危机对中国经济带来的消极影响。     

U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations: Youths’ Perceptions

This paper is a study of the perceptions of young adults in the U.S. and China on the relations between the two nations. We conducted a case study by distributing a 17 question survey to 201 American undergraduate students (NYC) and 164 Chinese undergraduate students (Shanghai). The questions probed their views of U.S. and China’s economic and political systems, the future economic growth and political power in the world of the two nations, and the future political and economic relations between the two powers. The results of our study reveal a number of important perceptions that both U.S. and Chinese students have, some being similar and others being in sharp contrast. Most students in both countries view future political and economic relations between the U.S. and China predominantly as cooperative but only based on each nation’s self-interests. Both Chinese and American students agree that China is gaining political strength and economic influence among the advanced and the emerging nations of the world. While most of the U.S. students believe that China has been and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than the U.S., Chinese students are more likely to believe that this rate of growth is unsustainable. The results from our survey are compared and contrasted to the findings of national surveys for both countries. We believe that the study provides valuable insights into the similarities and differences in viewpoints of the next generation of adults in both nations about future U.S.-China relations.     

管窥二十一世纪的创新政策——美国科技与经济政策理事会《二十一世纪创新政策》述评

美国国家研究委员会科技与经济理事会于2006年举办了一场名为“二十一世纪创新政策”的国际研讨会,邀请来自加拿大、日本、德国、芬兰、中国台湾等国家和地区政府部门的科技计划管理官员和企业的技术专家,介绍和探讨了包括中国、美国、印度在内的部分目标经济体的典型科技／创新计划的制定、组织、管理、资助和评估情况,试图从计划的角度剖析这些目标经济体的创新政策,以供美国借鉴。文章对该研讨会的主要论点进行了介绍,并结合我国实际情况提出了启示和建议。     

Global Technology Policies for Economic Growth

With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking.Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total.     

后危机时期国际金融格局的变动及其对美国经济的影响

2008年金融危机给世界经济带来了重大的影响,国际金融格局也发生了显著变化。本文主要分析了国际汇率体系、国际收支和国际储备体系、国别经济政策与国际间经济政策协调的变化。在后危机时期,美国经济也受国际金融格局变化的影响,包括美元中心地位的问题、“中心一外围”模式可持续性的问题和美国的国际经济领导权问题。本文得出的主要结论是：国际几种主要货币汇率波动增大,国际汇率体系弹性增大,国际收支总体失衡程度下降,美元为主的国际储备体系呈多元化趋势,先进经济体与新兴发展经济体的经济协调在加强,美元的霸权地位面临挑战,美国在国际分工中的中心地位在下降,美国在国际经济的主导地位也在逐渐下降,新兴经济体获得更多的话语权。     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The key elements of a new architecture for the U.S. national accounts have been developed in a prototype system constructed by Dale W. Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld, Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The focus of the U.S. national accounts is shifting from economic stabilization policy toward enhancing the economy's growth potential. A second motivation for the new architecture is to integrate the different components of the decentralized U.S. statistical system and make them consistent.     

浅析美国2012版国防战略指南

2012年1月5日,美国总统奥巴马公布了题为《维持美国的全球领导地位：21世纪国防的优先任务》的国防战略指南。国防战略作为美国战略体系的重要一环,位于国家安全战略之下,服从和服务于安全战略,同时又是制定国家军事战略的依据,规定着军事战略的内容和方向。本文通过对美国2012年版国防战略指南的主要内容和新特点进行归纳总结,并探析美国国防战略调整的背景、战略动因及对我国国家安全产生的重要影响。     

THE ECONOMIC COST OF U.S. OIL CONSERVATION

This article examines the costs of U.S. oil conservation by using parameters of five world oil models from a recent Energy Modeling Forum study. Variation in the estimated cost of oil conservation across the models suggests that achieving oil conservation through flexible policies that adjust to market conditions would better serve economic efficiency than would setting government-mandated levels of oil consumption. Additionally, net world oil conservation is likely to be somewhat less than gross U.S. conservation. U.S. oil conservation lowers the world oil price and stimulates non-U.S. oil consumption. Including the gains in non-U.S. oil consumption raises the estimated costs of achieving a given conservation level .     

美国科技创新实力及创新体系优劣势分析

美国在世界经济中的霸主地位,很大程度上取决于其科技创新实力。美国创新实力强,整体竞争力表现突出;基础研究能力强,科技论文产出世界领先;企业创新能力强,技术创新成果大量涌现。美国政府非常重视创新,不断出台新政策促进创新,提高对创新基础要素的投资,支持创新的商业环境,并且,产学官结合紧密。美国政府是科技创新的重要推手,美国国家创新体系有着独特的优势,而且这种优势有望继续为美国经济增长提供重要支撑。