On the New Economic Policies Promoted by the 17th CCP Congress in China

The 17th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October 2007 attracted attention within and outside China for the bold development agenda that was placed before delegates. After 30 years of economic reform that has produced a remarkable improvement in living standards and China's reintegration into the world economy, the Party unveiled a programme that would push China to become a world superpower over the next 30 years. China's ambition is to become a technologically innovative state, to make China a ‘moderately prosperous’ and ‘harmonious society’ with a ‘scientific outlook on development’, and to achieve full industrialisation and sustainable prosperity. Whether China is able to attain its objectives will critically depend on the Party's ability to implement the new economic policies and address the social and political challenges that economic growth has created. The aim of the paper is to examine the policies, motivations and constraints that China faces in achieving the objectives laid out at the Party Congress.     

Why is China so Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness

This paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of China in the world economy and relative to its East Asian rivals. China has been highly successful in capturing world export markets. Chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange rate and extremely low labour costs. It reflects the coincidence of favourable cost conditions with improvements in China's ability to produce products that meet world market specififications. These improvements are closely related to foreign participation in China's economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises.     

Doing business in Brazil: A strategic approach

Brazil has the largest economy in South America, and the second largest in Latin America, offering one of the most promising markets in the world. Along with China and India, Brazil is ranked among the nations with the highest predicted development rates in the next 25 years. In the early 2000s, Brazil accounted for 56% of all foreign direct investment flows to South America and 52.5% of the foreign direct investment stock in South America. Brazil is also a key player in the design and development of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), which is scheduled to be effective by 2005. The FTAA is expected to be the world's largest regional trading block. In 2002, Brazil was ranked twelfth amongst the largest economies in the world. Brazil is one of the world's “Big Five” emerging markets, along with China, India, Mexico, and Indonesia. In the past decade, Brazil was second to China among emerging economies for received foreign direct investment. This article elaborates on the main aspects of doing business in Brazil and discusses some of the challenges and opportunities facing the Brazilian economy. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does the spillover of China's economic growth exist? Evidence from emerging markets

This paper primarily investigates if China affects emerging markets economies triggered by its rapid economic growth and the trend of economic globalization over the world. Our results indicate that China's economic growth causes a significant spillover effect on the economic performances of emerging markets, varying across the detected structural break in 2006 and the degree of economic globalization between China and 25 emerging economies over the period 2000–2012. The results herein support the formation of an inseparable interdependence between China and those emerging economies.     

The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

Mercosul External Policies in a Multipolar World

ABSTRACT

The creation of Mercosur rested on perceptions of US and European economic and political “hegemony” to which the new regional trade arrangement was viewed as an appropriate response. Since then the world economy has evolved in ways that question these assumptions, driven by the sharp increase in the number of economic activities that are in competition on a world scale. Other major economies, notably China and India, have been more successful than the Southern Cone countries in adapting to this multipolar world economy, challenging Mercosul to find new responses.     

Indian Economy: Growth Performance and Prospects of Transitioning the Growth Trajectory

After a prolonged period of underperformance, Indian economy picked up momentum during the 1980s and 1990s. After 2001, it even had a period of stellar economic growth and the real gross domestic product growth rate came tantalizingly close to double digit. Optimists began to believe that India could emulate China's sustained superlative economic performance. The author argues that this amounts to stretching optimism. There is still a long list of macroeconomic reform and restructuring measures that have been ignored. Whether it will be able to emulate China will essentially depend on doing what was left undone in the past.     

Emerging‐Market Firms Venturing into Advanced Economies: The Role of Context

Sociocultural, economic, political, and institutional differences between countries increase uncertainty and complexity in today's highly competitive international business environment. Moreover, the “West‐Leads‐East” to “West‐Meets‐East” shift in the global economy requires firms in both advanced economies and emerging markets to seek sustainable solutions by collaborating across geographic boundaries. Such novel collaborative partnerships may help build a stable, resilient, and sustainable world economy by leveraging the resources and capabilities of firms from both advanced and emerging economies. This article has three general objectives. First, we seek to show that context has been a long‐standing issue in management, organization, and international business research and provide an overview of the puzzles that informed and motivated this special issue. Second, we highlight the key insights and contributions of the articles included in this special issue by reviewing their theoretical underpinnings, methodological approaches, and empirical findings. Finally, we outline a future research agenda on emerging‐market firms venturing into advanced economies that can help advance international business and management studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The globalization of Chinese enterprises

The question of how and why Chinese firms globalize is one of the most pressing issues for businesses today. China's globalization process is nothing less than remarkable. The twenty‐first century will feature a developing country as the leader of the global economy by 2020, when, by most estimates, China's purchasing power parity (PPP) gross domestic product (GDP) surpasses America's. With China's new role on the world's stage, global economic and political institutions are likely to change. China's foray into Latin America, for example, has changed the traditional role that America has played in its “backyard.” While the Chinese government was given much credit for China's globalization, Chinese private‐ and family‐owned businesses have also propelled China outward. Our research stream and annual China Goes Global conference at Harvard has attempted to frame the questions associated with China's globalization. This special issue is another important step in this direction. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.     

A new tale of two cities: Japanese FDIs in Shanghai and Beijing, 1979–2003

Transitional economies can be characterized by considerable sub-national variation in economic and political characteristics. We investigate how this variance influences the timing of entry, entry mode, industrial traits, and survival rates for Japanese foreign direct investments (FDIs) made in China's two major metropolises—Shanghai, the economic center, and Beijing, the political capital. Using a sample of 1610 subsidiaries of Japanese firms established during the 1979–2003 period, our empirical results show that Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) tended to choose an economic-oriented rather than a political-oriented city as their investment location, with the consequence being higher survival likelihoods in Shanghai than in Beijing. This location choice helped Japanese firms avoid policy uncertainty and political hazards in China's transition economy. Our findings highlight the point that fundamental features of institutional environments at sub-national levels should be analyzed when looking at investment strategy and performance in transitional economies.     

Understanding the role of China's domestic market in the (unequal) growth of world economy

This study investigates the rising role of China's domestic market expansion from 1995 to 2011 in the world economy's growth. China maintained high domestic expenditure growth during the entire period, with even bigger increases in the last years, when the global financial crisis and subsequent economic recovery occurred. The expenditures facilitated rapid growth through high demand for durable goods, which are produced across widely fragmented Asian channels. At the same time, China integrated further into the global economy and imported intermediate goods increasingly became embedded in goods for domestic sale. These two forces combined to magnify the impact of China's market expansion on foreign economies but disproportionately more on its neighbouring countries and sectors related to durable goods production. Specifically, our estimates suggest that the expenditure growth in China over the 2009–11 period added about 1 percentage point to the annual GDP growth rate in Taiwan, Malaysia and Korea, while the NAFTA and EU member countries typically benefited by less than 0.1 percentage point.     

Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy

This paper proposes a measure of China's monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) based on a Bayesian MCMC estimation procedure, investigates the economic impact of MPU, and outlines the impact channels. Empirical findings suggest that MPU depresses China's economy via higher credit risk and lower economic growth. Moreover, the decrease in output is amplified and made more persistent when the economy is simultaneously exposed to higher credit risk. Because China has experienced massive credit expansion over the past decades, the economy is currently more vulnerable to the increase in MPU than it ever was.     

Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid growth in Asia's emerging economies has boosted export earnings of resource‐rich economies over the past decade. Whether or not those high growth rates continue, how will structural changes in Asia alter the relative importance of their imports of primary products? This paper projects production and trade patterns of Africa and Latin America to 2030 under various growth and policy scenarios in Asia, using the GTAP model of the global economy. We compare a projection assuming relatively conservative economic growth in China and India with a projection in which those economies continue to grow rapidly (albeit slower than in the previous decade). We then compare our conservative growth baseline with two alternative scenarios: one assuming Africa and Latin America choose to invest more in public agricultural R&D to take advantage of Asian import growth; the other assuming China and India dampen that import growth by restricting their imports of key food grains (following the historical pattern of economies such as Japan and Korea). The final section summarises the results and draws out policy implications for Latin America and Africa.     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

India and the Global Economy

India’s booming knowledge-based sectors demonstrate the power of globalization to transform developing economies. For India, however, these industries are just part of its contribution to the global economy. For a more nuanced picture of India’s international economic position, this paper places India in international and historical context, examines its links to the world through trade, labor, and capital, and outlines some critical challenges facing the country. What emerges is a more complex picture of India -- a nation with far more to offer than skilled programmers but which must address problems of poverty, infrastructure, and governance to achieve its potential. JEL Classification O530     

供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Doing Business in India

On its independence in 1947, India was among the two most industrialized nations in Asia. Since then it adopted a “mixed economy” approach that hindered its national growth and the optimum utilization of its immense resources (both natural and human). To re‐establish itself as an economic force in the region, India liberalized its economy in early 1990s. The adoption of the “free market economy” model has created great opportunities for foreign businesses. This article provides useful information on the complex business environment, aimed to help foreign businessmen and investors to develop a good understanding on key background knowledge for being successful in India. It reviews Indian historical development, political structure and climate, international relations, and economy and foreign trade. India's infrastructure, legal framework, socio‐cultural set‐up, competitive environment, as well as market structure and potential are also analyzed. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.