Analogical reasoning for diagnosing strategic issues in dynamic and complex environments

Organizations interpret their environments by categorizing strategic issues as either opportunities or threats. They make such categorizations as inferences drawn from analogies from past experience. The accuracy of issue interpretations turns on: (1) which analogy is used, (2) what are the environment's properties, and (3) what is the timeframe? A computational model allows us to evaluate over time the accuracy of interpretations based on different forms of analogical reasoning in environments that differ in variation (unpredictability and dynamism) and complexity (dimensionality and ruggedness). This study elaborates a contingency approach to assessing analogical reasoning by organizations in which the form of analogical reasoning, environmental properties, and time all matter. Our findings indicate when particular forms of reasoning produce relatively more accurate inferences about opportunities and threats. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment

Heuristics have long been associated with problems of bias and framing error, often on the basis of simulation and laboratory studies. In this field study of a high‐stakes strategic decision, we explore an alternative view that heuristics may serve as powerful cognitive tools that enable, rather than limit, decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. We examine the cognitive efforts of senior decision makers of an inexperienced multinational, as they assessed a potential acquisition in a politically hazardous African country. They applied a diversity of heuristics, some with clear building block rules, to build small world representations of this very uncertain strategic context. More expert individuals drew on experiential learning to build richer representations of the political hazard environment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences on strategic decision effectiveness: Development and test of an integrative model

This paper draws upon three broad perspectives on the strategic decision‐making process in order to develop a more completely specified model of strategic decision effectiveness in a different context, namely Egypt. The key variables in this model consist of three strategic decision‐making process dimensions (rationality, intuition, and political behavior); seven moderating variables concerning decision‐specific, environmental, and organizational factors; and strategic decision effectiveness as an outcome variable. A two‐stage study was conducted in which the first stage provided exploratory insights and the second stage investigated hypotheses on the impact of strategic decision‐making process dimensions on strategic decision effectiveness and the moderating role of broader contextual variables. The second‐stage study produced three major findings: (1) both rational and political processes appear to have more influence on strategic decision effectiveness than does intuition; (2) strategic decision effectiveness is both process‐ and context‐specific; and (3) certain results support the ‘culture‐free’ argument, while others support the ‘culture‐specific’ argument. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

All experience is not created equal: learning,adapting, and focusing in product portfolio management

This study explores the contingencies relating firm experience to product development capabilities, focusing on experience type (breadth versus depth) and timing (prior versus concurrent). Results from empirical tests in the U.S. mutual fund industry offer two primary findings. First, firms increase proficiency at adapting their processes to address new opportunities as they accumulate experience in entering new niches, but face initial hurdles broadening their experience base. Second, concurrent learning is capacity constrained, as product quality increases in the number of products introduced simultaneously in one niche, but quality decreases as the firm's concurrent portfolio of new products broadens. Jointly, these findings highlight that dynamic capabilities are built through prior adaptation experience and that management of a product development portfolio is an important managerial capability. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Network location and learning: the influence of network resources and firm capabilities on alliance formation

This paper presents a dynamic, firm‐level study of the role of network resources in determining alliance formation. Such resources inhere not so much within the firm but reside in the interfirm networks in which firms are placed. Data from extensive fieldwork show that by influencing the extent to which firms have access to information about potential partners, such resources are an important catalyst for new alliances, especially because alliances entail considerable hazards. This study also assesses the importance of firms’ capabilities with alliance formation and material resources as determinants of their alliance decisions. I test this dynamic framework and its hypotheses about the role of time‐varying network resources and firm capabilities with comprehensive longitudinal multi‐industry data on the formation of strategic alliances by a panel of firms between 1970 and 1989. The results confirm field observations that accumulated network resources arising from firm participation in the network of accumulated prior alliances are influential in firms’ decisions to enter into new alliances. This study highlights the importance of network resources that firms derive from their embeddedness in networks for explaining their strategic behavior. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Competitive forces and strategic choice decisions: an experimental investigation in the United States and Japan

Managers operate in a complex, uncertain environment and tend to form simplified models in order to cope with this environment and make competitive strategic decisions (i.e., cost‐leadership, differentiation, or focus). In this study, we use an experimental design to examine the strategic choice decision‐making process in firms located in the United States and Japan. We develop several main‐effect propositions regarding managerial selection of competitive strategies, depending on the competitive forces (buyer power, threat of substitutes, threat of new firm entry, and high intensity of rivalry) they are facing. We propose a main effect due to country of origin: Japanese managers prefer a cost‐leadership strategy more than American managers do. We also propose several interaction effects regarding cross‐national differences in strategy selection between Japanese and U.S. managers. To test our propositions, we collected experimental data from 316 U.S. executives and 459 Japanese executives. We assessed relative impacts of the competitive forces on strategic decision‐making using a multilevel regression analysis. The research findings indicated that high buyer power and high substitution threat were associated with a preference for cost‐leadership strategies, and Japanese managers were significantly more likely to prefer a cost‐leadership strategy than U.S. managers. We also found that, under conditions of high buyer power, U.S. managers were less likely than Japanese managers to enter a market with a differentiation or focus strategy. We found little support for other interaction hypotheses, suggesting points of similarity between U.S. and Japanese managers. We conclude with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications of our results. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When the glass is half full and half empty: CEOs' ambivalent interpretations of strategic issues

Organizational scholars have highlighted the importance of interpretive ambivalence for mindfulness, creativity, and strategic change. Ambivalence occurs when an issue is seen simultaneously as positive and negative. We examine organizational factors that influence the propensity of organizational leaders to evaluate a new strategic issue ambivalently. Data come from a survey of 220 German CEOs confronted with the enlargement of the European Union. We find that CEOs of firms with a more ambidextrous strategic orientation and a moderate sense of organizational control over their environment are most likely to be ambivalent about this issue. Our findings affirm the prevalence of interpretive ambivalence at the executive level and suggest ways for organizations to promote or prevent ambivalence in strategic sensemaking. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The elephant in the room of dynamic capabilities: Bringing two diverging conversations together

A critical issue has been absent from the conversation on dynamic capabilities: the two seminal papers represent not only different but contradictory understandings of the construct's core elements. Here, we explore the reasons for this, using author cocitation analysis to inform our analysis. Our findings suggest that the field is being socially constructed on the basis of two separate domains of knowledge and that underlying structural impediments have impeded dialog across the domains. In light of this evidence, then, we take up the challenge to find a solution to this dilemma. By employing a contingency‐based approach, we show that there are ways to unify the field that rely, paradoxically, on integrating the two contradictory views, while still preserving the assumptions that led to their differences. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scope,timing and strategic adjustment in emerging markets: Manufacturer strategies and the case of MRI

This study examines the realized strategies of all domestic manufacturers in a growing, high technology, industrial market characterized by high levels of regulatory, demand, and technological uncertainty. These manufacturers have behaved quite differently and experienced varying levels of success in the market. A typology of entry strategies grounded in an intensive analysis of these data is presented. Specifically, it addresses the timing and scope of a firm's entry into the market, strategic adjustments over time, and the impact of these decisions on the firm's performance. It is proposed that these strategies represent trade-offs between the risks of resource commitment and competitive preemption. Specific, testable hypotheses based on this typology are also provided.     

Performance feedback and middle managers’ divergent strategic behavior: The roles of social comparisons and organizational identification

Research Summary: What drives middle managers to search for new strategic initiatives and champion them to top management? This behavior—labeled divergent strategic behavior—spawns emergent strategies and thereby provides one of the essential ingredients of strategic renewal. We conceptualize divergent strategic behavior as a response to performance feedback. Data from 123 senior middle managers overseeing 21 multi‐country organizations (MCOs) of a Fortune 500 firm point to social performance comparisons rather than historical comparisons in driving divergent strategic behavior. Moreover, managers’ organizational identification affects whether they attend to organizational‐ or individual‐level feedback. These results contribute to research on performance aspirations and strategy process by providing a multilevel, multidimensional framework of performance aspirations in middle management driven strategic renewal. Managerial Summary: Middle managers are essential actors in strategic renewal. Their unique positions offer insights into operations alongside knowledge of strategy. In contrast to typical assessments of managerial performance with reference to a prior year, this research shows that performance comparisons relative to peers and other organizational units better motivate managers’ divergent strategic behavior. Our results also show that managers who identify with the firm are more attentive to organizational rather than individual performance discrepancies. Thus, our study unveils an important approach for organizations aiming to spark strategic renewal.     

New venture strategic adaptation: The interplay of belief structures and industry context

We adopt an information processing perspective to investigate how the interplay of belief structures and industry context shapes new venture strategic adaptation in a sample of 104 publicly traded new ventures founded between 1996 and 2006 in several technology‐intensive industries. Results highlight that distinct espoused belief structures attributes (complexity, centrality, proactive causal logics) and industry growth combinations predict diversity, frequency, and speed of new venture strategic actions. We contribute to prior literature on early firm strategic adaptation by providing an elaborated understanding of the role of espoused belief structures in interpreting and translating industry signals into new venture strategic action. Further, we highlight the role of belief structures in facilitating the fast, diverse, and frequent organizational actions typically associated with continuous adaptation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategy making in novel and complex worlds: the power of analogy

We examine how firms discover effective competitive positions in worlds that are both novel and complex. In such settings, neither rational deduction nor local search is likely to lead a firm to a successful array of choices. Analogical reasoning, however, may be helpful, allowing managers to transfer useful wisdom from similar settings they have experienced in the past. From a long list of observable industry characteristics, analogizing managers choose a subset they believe distinguishes similar industries from different ones. Faced with a novel industry, they seek a familiar industry which matches the novel one along that subset of characteristics. They transfer from the matching industry high‐level policies that guide search in the novel industry. We embody this conceptualization of analogy in an agent‐based simulation model. The model allows us to examine the impact of managerial and structural characteristics on the effectiveness of analogical reasoning. With respect to managerial characteristics, we find, not surprisingly, that analogical reasoning is especially powerful when managers pay attention to characteristics that truly distinguish similar industries from different ones. More surprisingly, we find that the marginal returns to depth of experience diminish rapidly while greater breadth of experience steadily improves performance. Both depth and breadth of experience are useful only when one accurately understands what distinguishes similar industries from different ones. We also discover that following an analogy in too orthodox a manner—strictly constraining search efforts to what the analogy suggests—can be dysfunctional. With regard to structural characteristics, we find that a well‐informed analogy is particularly powerful when interactions among decisions cross policy boundaries so that the underlying decision problem is not easily decomposed. Overall, the results shed light on a form of managerial reasoning that we believe is prevalent among practicing strategists yet is largely absent from scholarly analysis of strategy. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When using knowledge can hurt performance: the value of organizational capabilities in a management consulting company

This paper explores the possibility that utilizing the firm's knowledge resources to complete important tasks can backfire and undermine competitive performance. Drawing on organizational capabilities and knowledge‐sharing research, we develop a situated performance view that holds that the value of obtaining and using knowledge within a firm depends on the task situation. Using a data set of 182 sales proposals for client work in a management consulting company, we show that sales teams that had varying needs to learn and differentiate themselves from competitors derived different levels of value from obtaining and using electronic documents and advice from colleagues. Highly experienced teams were more likely than inexperienced teams to lose the sales bids if they utilized such knowledge. Teams that had a high need to differentiate themselves from competitors also had a lower chance of winning if they utilized electronic documents. There were situations, however, where teams performed better if they utilized the firm's knowledge resources. These results suggest that competitive performance depends not on how much firms know but on how they use what they know. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Software firm turnarounds in the 1990s: An analysis of reversing decline in a growing,dynamic industry

Investigations into management actions that reverse organizational decline have produced inconsistent findings. Prior studies have focused on the value of retrenchment actions versus strategic actions to engineer a performance turnaround. These studies, however, have generally not controlled for the cause of firm decline, overlooking a major theoretical contingency. Examining prepackaged software firms in the 1990s, we test the association of strategic and retrenchment actions in facilitating turnarounds in a munificent industry. The results show that measures of strategic actions—new product introductions, strategic alliances, and acquisitions—were positively associated with turnarounds. Conversely, measures of retrenchment actions—layoffs, asset reductions, and product withdrawals—were negatively associated with performance recovery. Our results suggest declining firms in munificent industries cannot retrench their way back to prosperity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of managerial learning and interpretation in strategic persistence and reorientation: An empirical exploration

This study uses a managerial learning framework to build and test a model of the decisionmaking process that drives decisions to strategically reorient an organization. The model examines the effects of past performance, managerial interpretations, and top management team characteristics on the likelihood of strategic reorientation in two distinct environmental contexts. The results indicate that poor past performance, environmental awareness, top management team heterogeneity, and CEO turnover increased the likelihood of reorientation. There are some differences in the ways in which these variables affect reorientation across the two environmental contexts. Poor past performance was more strongly associated with reorientation in the stable environment than in the turbulent environment. The tendency to make external attributions for poor performance outcomes decreased the likelihood of reorientation in the turbulent environment, but not in the stable environment.