价格支持政策对我国不同粮食作物播种面积变化的影响差异

［目的］文章评估了价格支持政策对不同粮食作物播种面积变化的平均效应与动态效应,并测度多种价格支持政策的交叉政策弹性。［方法］基于1998—2016年实施粮食价格支持政策省份面板数据,设立对照组,利用倾向得分匹配—双重差分方法（PSM DID）评估价格支持政策平均效应与动态效应,并构建粮食作物供给反应（Nerlove）模型测度价格支持政策的交叉政策弹性。［结果］（1）价格支持政策对水稻、小麦、玉米播种面积增加具有不同程度的推动作用,按大小依次为玉米>水稻>小麦,对大豆播种面积变化影响不显著; （2）价格支持政策持续时间越长,对水稻、玉米播种面积增加的推动作用越大,对小麦播种面积增加的推动作用较为稳定; （3）小麦、玉米播种面积变化主要来自自身价格支持政策,水稻播种面积变化除了受到自身价格支持政策影响外,还受到其他作物政策影响,大豆播种面积变化对玉米临储政策反应敏感,对自身价格支持政策反应不敏感。［结论］在制定粮食政策时既要区分政策及其持续性对不同粮食播种面积变化的影响差异,又要注意在同一地区实施多种粮食政策时,可能对不同作物产生交叉影响。     

RURAL PLANNING: PROBLEMS AND POLICIES

Over the last decade there has been an increase in concern, expressed by a variety of interests, about the countryside. Increasing agricultural intensification has been accompanied by changes in the rural landscape and a decline in other areas of the rural economy. There is concern about conservation, wildlife protection and ecological balance, while demands for recreation and access are growing. Conflicting policies can be observed in the various agencies responsible for the management of the countryside. There is a realisation that rural policy should be more comprehensive and co-ordinated but there are divergent views on the degree of intervention and the means by which it is implemented. This paper examines the nature of the problem of ‘rural planning’ as it obtains at the present time.     

城乡建设用地增减挂钩运行中出现的主要问题与建议

城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策出台后,地方开展了增减挂钩试点,对统筹城乡发展发挥了积极作用,但也出现了一些亟须规范的问题。该文试图在了解城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策运行情况的基础上,分析了政策试点中存在的主要问题,并提出了明晰土地产权,指标置换要做到"双挂钩",采取多种整理模式等政策建议。     

FARM NET VALUE ADDED IN SCOTLAND AND THE DESIGNATION OF AREAS FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE

Recent procedures for selecting disadvantaged areas for European Community rural development assistance have specified criteria including low levels of agricultural income and GDP per capita, and proportionately high levels of agricultural employment. The first of these is measured by Farm Net Value Added per Annual Work Unit (FNVA per AWU). This paper presents a methodology which estimates FNVA and AWU for Scottish parishes using data from the Farm Accounts Scheme and the June agricultural census. The ratio of FNVA to AWU is then estimated for various aggregations of parishes, such as Scottish Districts, Regions, and areas currently designated for various rural development programmes. Although only one among several important criteria for targeting rural development aid, the pattern of FNVA per AWU generally supports the current allocation of funding. The results also give some indication of priority areas for future targeting on a more local scale.     

社区居民对都市近郊乡村旅游影响的感知与态度的实证研究——以成都花香果居景区为例

近年来,对乡村旅游的研究日益升温,但鲜有学者从居民感知的角度对都市近郊乡村旅游影响进行研究。文章以成都近郊的乡村旅游地花香果居景区为例进行实证研究,通过发放问卷、入户调查等方式将居民对旅游的经济、环境、社会文化及总体影响等4个方面的感知进行均值分析,发现在上述4个方面的正面感知均强于负面感知;通过相关性分析,了解不同社会人口特征与旅游影响感知的相关性。研究发现,花香果居景区居民对旅游积极影响感知强于负面影响,社区归属感越强的居民对旅游发展呈越积极的态度,而学历越高的居民对旅游负面影响感知更为敏感。在研究结论的基础上并提出花香果居乡村旅游发展的若干建议。     

EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE CHINESE POLICIES ON THE WORLD GRAINS MARKET

The implications for the world grains market of a reduction in China's domestic absorption, and of the removal of its key manufacturing protection, are analysed in this paper. These policy changes are modelled both alone and together with grain self-sufficiency in China and with reduction in farm support in the US and EC. In themselves, the reduction in absorption and removal of manufacturing protection in China would have only marginal effects on the world grains market. If, however, China were to achieve grain self-sufficiency while adopting these macroeconomic and trade policies, world grain prices and trade would fall considerably. In contrast, even a partial removal of protection in the US and EC, simultaneously with the above Chinese macroeconomic and trade policy changes, could substantially increase world grain prices and trade. These positive effects would be considerably reduced if at the same time China were to become self-sufficient in grain.     

农村土地调整与农民土地承包政策认知实证分析  ———基于山东的调查

人口变动及土地征占等导致土地在集体农户之间的占有不均衡是土地调整的基本原因。从农户对"30年不变"土地承包政策的认知程度来看,多数农民赞成这一政策,但更倾向于"公平"的土地分配方式,同时农民对这一土地承包政策是否能够持续稳定并不肯定。在影响农民对政策赞成与否的各因素中,集体土地调整、年龄、家庭劳动力数量、承包土地面积、出租土地面积、农业经营收入占家庭总收入的比重呈正向影响,受教育年限、家庭农业户口人数、是否村干部户、租入土地面积呈负向影响。     

乡村旅游业发展对广西区域经济的影响研究

鉴于乡村旅游业发展对区域经济增长有明显拉动作用的客观事实,广西壮族自治区近年来大力发展乡村旅游业,以此作为经济转型背景下新的经济增长点。广西有发展乡村旅游业得天独厚的自然资源条件,拥有喀斯特地貌、农业梯田、湖泊瀑布等乡村旅游业发展资源,近年来在政府的支持下开发出不少闻名省内外的乡村旅游景区。文章从理论(定性)、实证(定量)等2个角度切入分析,结合乘数理论和生命周期效应理论,建立广西乡村旅游业与区域GDP的计量经济学模型,通过严密的数理逻辑推导,分析乡村旅游业发展对区域经济影响的表现和贡献程度,并以此为基础,为进一步提升乡村旅游业对广西区域经济发展的影响,促进区域经济发展和经济结构转型,提出科学可行的对策和建议,以促进旅游产业成为广西跨越式发展的新支柱,并快速实现区域经济跨越式发展的战略目标。     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE REDUCTION AND DIRECT INCOME SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INPUT MARKETS IN AUSTRIA

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the effects of a shift from price support to direct income policy on agricultural factor markets and aggregate output. By utilising an econometric model for the Austrian agricultural sector, it is argued that the main purpose of this policy change, which is to move producers away from making production decisions in response to income support policies and to facilitate their response to market signals (‘decoupling’), is only partially realised. Switching from price to direct income support would result in little reduction in output, but some positive secondary effects can be observed. Ecological goals could be realised by lessening the degree of industrialisation due to lowering the capital-labour and intermediate input-labour ratios.     

分析预测·一月上旬国内外市场粮食价格监测

国家发改委价格监测中心对国内、国际粮食市场跟踪监测显示,1月上旬,我国粮食主产区玉米价格下降,大豆价格上升,稻谷、小麦价格有涨有跌;国际市场大米、小麦玉米价格上涨,大豆价格下降。国内市场小麦:红小麦混等品全国收购平均价为66.74元(每50公斤,下同),比2005年12月下旬上升0.17%,销售平均价为69.47元,上升0.30%。其中,江苏省收购价为63.13元,下降0.39%;湖北省收购价64元,上升0.98%。白小麦混等品全国收购平均价为71.12元,下降0.06%,销售平均价为73.00元,下降0.12%。几个主产区(河北、河南、江苏、山东)平均价格为70.41元,下降0.13%。其…     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORLD PRICE INSTABILITY AND THE PRICES FARMERS RECEIVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

World prices for agricultural commodities are traditionally unstable, but they were particularly turbulent during the late 1970s and early 1980s. This paper uses available post-War data on individual commodity prices to test whether world price instability is increasing, and to examine its impact on the prices producers receive in developing countries. It is found that the recent turbulence was more a statistical fluke than the beginning of any longer-term increase in market instability. Further, while the variability in world prices has been almost entirely transmitted to developing countries in the dollar value of their export unit values, it has not been fully transmitted to average producer prices. Real exchange rates, domestic marketing arrangements and government intervention have acted to buffer price movements for producers in many developing countries.     

贵州省县域农村贫困度时空变化分析

[目的]农村贫困程度的变化是一个动态变化的过程,动态、客观地监测农村贫困的时空变化对国家扶贫工作十分重要。[方法]文章利用DOSP/OLS夜光数据集构建的平均灯光指数ALI (Average light index,ALI)与社会经济数据构建的综合贫困指数IPI (Integrated Poerty Index,IPI)建立关系,进而估算2003—2018年贵州省县（区）域间综合贫困指数,分析农村贫困的时空格局演变。[结果]（1） ALI与IPI建立模型估算的IPI与真实的IPI拟合程度较好,R2超过了0.86,具有一定的准确性和科学性;（2）贵州省各县（区）域IPI指数的变异系数和泰尔指数在2003—2018年两者都有所增长,增长幅度分别为19.21%和2.38%,表明农村贫困度差异在逐渐增大。但贫困程度极高的县（区）域呈下降趋势,由2003年的65个减少到2018年的37个;（3）标准差椭圆分析表明贵州农村贫困程度整体呈现“东北—西南”的空间分布格局,椭圆覆盖面积和贫困化重心变化不大;（4）探索性空间数据分析显示,贵州各县（区）域农村贫困程度表现出显著的正相关,并存在较强的空间聚集...     

云南省雷电活动分布特征及对农村地区的影响分析

[目的]探讨雷电致灾因子对农村地区的影响,提出相应的防御措施,以期为加强农村地区雷电风险管理和应急处置提供技术依据。[方法]结合2013—2017年云南省近5年ADTD闪电定位监测数据和雷电灾害统计资料,分析云南省地闪活动时空分布特征,确定各地区雷电易发等级,运用数理统计方法研究农村雷电致灾成因和灾害分布规律。[结果]地闪活动是影响农村雷电灾害发生的主要因素,近5年农村雷电灾害占总雷灾起数的40. 61%,损失类型表现为雷击导致的人身伤亡损失,主要分布在农田、树下、山坡及水域附近等野外空旷区域。[结论]农村雷电灾害与地闪活动的时空分布存在较好的对应关系,还与孕灾环境、承灾体易损性紧密相关,通过完善农村地区防雷设施,加强防雷减灾科普宣传教育,实施农村防雷减灾示范工程等能够有效防御和减少农村雷灾损失。     

DEMAND PRICE, FISH SIZE AND THE PRICE OF FISH*

Despite considerable work in fisheries economics on the supply side, little attention has been devoted to theoretical aspects of the relationship between ex-vessel price and landings. One of the widely recognized determinants of fish prices is fish size, yet virtually all empirical analyses of the demand for fish ignore fish size. In this paper a demand function is postulated which includes fish size as a continuous demand shift parameter and the implications of fish size to the relationship between price and quantity are examined. It is concluded that omission of fish size may result in confounded estimates of the steady state relationship between price and quantity. It is also concluded that bioeconomic models of the fishery which ignore fish size may yield policy conclusions which are quantitatively, and in some cases, qualitatively, inaccurate. Malgré le nombre important ?études sur ?economique des pêcheries du point de vue des provisions, peu ?attention s'est consacre aux aspects théoriques du rapport entre le prix ex-vaisseau et les débarquements. Un déterminant largement reconnu du prix des poissons, c'est leur taille, quoique presque toutes les analyses empiriques de la demande de poissons ne tiennent aucun compte de la taille des poissons. ?ouvrage présent poslule une fonction de la demande, qui lient compte de la taille des poissons comme paramètre des changements de demande; il examine aussi les implications de la taille des poissons dans le rapport entre prix et quantité. On conclut que ?omission de la taille des poissons puisse résulter en des évaluations confondues du rapport constant entre prix et quantité. On conclut également que les modèles bio-économiques de la pêcherie qui ne tiennent aucun compte de la taille des poissons puissent produire des conclusions de politique qui sone inexactes du point de vue quantitatif, et parfois du point de vue qualitatif.     

重庆市低山丘陵区农村居民点分布格局及其影响因素

农村居民点分布格局是研究农村居民点自组织演化规律的重要内容,在一定程度上反映了人类活动与自然环境的相互作用。以研究区1∶2000土地利用现状图、地形图等资料为基础,以ArcGIS 9.3为技术平台,结合景观分析软件Fragstats3.3,选取表征农村居民点用地、规模、形状和分布的11个景观指数指标,应用空间分析法和景观指数分析法,分析了重庆市低山丘陵区农村居民点分布格局及其影响因素。结果表明:①自然条件是影响农村居民点分布格局的重要因素。随着海拔和坡度的不断增加,农村居民点用地面积和平均规模呈现出相对递减的趋势,且分布在阳坡上的多于阴坡。②农村居民点分布格局表现出不同的区域特征。丘陵区农村居民点面积大、分布密度小,其空间分布相对集中;由丘陵向低山过渡区由于微地势起伏不定,农村居民点数量多、单个居民点规模小,其空间分布集中度较低;低山区农村居民点分布比较零碎,并表现出明显的地带性特征。因此,地形地貌是构成农村居民点分布格局的基础框架并制约着农村居民点用地、规模、形状和分布特征。     

从城乡两个战略统筹推进看农村改革路向

[目的]"城市病"与"乡村病"既是城市与乡村各自发展过程出现问题的表现,又是城乡发展长期不平衡累积的结果。从乡村振兴与新型城镇化两个战略统筹推进的视角出发,探究农村改革的重点路向。[方法]文章通过构建乡村振兴与新型城镇化评价指标体系,运用熵值法加权计算二者各自的综合指数,并运用耦合协调模型评价了现阶段我国城乡耦合协调度。[结果]从理论分析看,我国城乡融合发展具有理论上"耦合"的可行性。实证研究表明:我国乡村振兴与新型城镇化处于"区域分异"状态、发展任务艰巨且要求分区域精准施策;目前我国城乡耦合发展整体处于较低层级,70%的地区处于"轻度失调"状态,亟待通过外力干预逆转。[结论]"治好城乡两种病"不但要靠城乡自身的"内生性"发展,又需要"外源性"动力推进。从改革路向看,要结合农村实际实施差异化改革路径。并紧扣农村发展的限制性因素,针对性地破解发展难题。存在生态及自然资源优势的后发地区,应改革产业培育方向,对于经济较发达地区,改革重点应放在调整城乡分工与利益分配上;要改革土地等自然资源使用权流转制度,为城市资本下乡打开通道,使城乡融合由"离散型"转向"连续型";坚决破除"小农经济"思维模式禁锢,改革我国农业运作模式,把提升农业生产效率作为着力点。     

中国省域乡村振兴水平的动态比较和区域差异研究

[目的]在全面解析乡村振兴战略内涵的基础上,构建了乡村振兴评价指标体系,从时空维度测度和比较了我国省域乡村振兴水平及区域差异。[方法]文章运用纵横向拉开档次法,测度2014—2019年我国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台、西藏）的乡村振兴动态发展水平,进一步利用泰尔指数分析了东、中、西部地区乡村振兴发展的区域差异。[结果]（1）我国各地乡村振兴发展水平存在明显差异,但发展趋势总体向好,三大区域乡村振兴发展呈现东部地区较好,中部地区居中,西部地区落后的发展态势。（2）乡村振兴子系统发展差异较大,生态宜居子系统发展较好,产业兴旺子系统发展缓慢,治理有效子系统发展最差。（3）区域间差异是我国乡村振兴发展差异的主要来源,东部地区区域内差异明显大于中西部地区。[结论]最后,提出要全面把握乡村发展差异,做好乡村振兴顶层设计,加强区域协作,构建现代农业产业体系、生产体系和经营体系的政策启示。     

EFFECTS OF THE FARMER SUPPORT PROGRAMME AND CHANGES IN MARKETING POLICIES ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICA

This article analyses the effects of action aimed at narrowing the gap between South Africa's ‘two agricultures’, specifically the effects of the Farmer Support Programme (FSP) on structural aspects of maize production under different marketing policies. This is done by assembling a sectoral linear programming model of the South African summer-rainfall grain-producing area. The emphasis is on the inclusion of supply, demand and production risk. Results show that the effects of a successful FSP on specific interest groups, e.g. consumers of a specific product, or producers in a specific region, depend on the marketing policy followed, as well as on the effectiveness of the FSP. The analysis accentuates the interrelationships in South African crop production and illustrates how past policies ignored regional comparative advantages, distorted regional development and affected social welfare.     

世界各国粮食定价机制与变化趋势

由于世界各同普遍重视本国的粮食安全问题,国际粮食贸易量占全球粮食产量的比例并不高。对多数国家来说,国内粮食市场与国际粮食市场存在一定程度的分割,其价格的形成具有一定的独立性。根据世界主要粮食生产和贸易罔家或地区粮食价格形成过程的不同,我们可以将世界各国粮食定价机制划分为三种,一是市场定价制,二是政府统筹制,三是宏观调控制。