A Study of the Interaction of Insurance and Financial Markets: Efficiency and Full Insurance Coverage

The first contribution of this article is to provide a framework, a model together with a corresponding equilibrium notion, suitable for the study of the interaction between insurance and dynamic financial markets. Our central result is that in equilibrium risk‐averse agents purchase full insurance coverage, despite unfair insurance prices. We identify three conditions that explain this result: (1) insurance contracts are priced competitively, (2) financial prices include a risk premium only for undiversifiable risk, and (3) financial markets are effectively complete. An implication is that in this model disasters can be insured by fully assessable stock insurance companies.     

Are Differences in Acquiring Bank Profit Efficiency Priced in Financial Markets?

We analyze 271 bank mergers for 1986–2001 to attempt to determine if differences among acquirers in profit efficiency are priced in financial markets. We find that the acquirer’s pre-merger profit efficiency (as well as its experience in handling other mergers) has positive effects on the wealth of the acquiring bank’s shareholders. We also find that more profit efficient acquiring banks produce lower abnormal returns for the target, suggesting that well managed (i.e., more profit-efficient) banks are less likely to overpay when they enter into a merger agreement. Financial market participants apparently take something akin to the econometric concept of profit efficiency into account when they make decisions about bank stock purchases and sales around merger announcement dates.      

Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note

We consider an Arrow-Debreu model with agents who have different subjective probabilities. In general, asset prices will depend only on aggregate consumption and the distribution of subjective probabilities in each state of nature. If all agents have identical preferences then an asset with “more dispersed” subjective probabilities will have a lower price than an asset with less dispersed subjective probabilities if risk aversion does not decline too rapidly. It seems that this condition is likely to be met in practice, so that increased dispersion of beliefs will generally be associated with reduced asset prices in a given Arrow-Debreu equilibrium.     

Trust in Financial Markets

This paper examines contemporaneous and historical evidence on the structure of ownership and control of corporate sectors in developed countries to draw lessons for development of financial markets. It records the critical role that equity markets played in the ownership and financing of corporations at the beginning of the 20th century. It notes that this occurred in the absence of formal systems of regulation and that equity markets functioned on the basis of informal relationships of trust. These were sustained through local stock markets in the UK, banks in Germany, and business coordinators and family firms in Japan. The paper explores the concept of trust that is required to promote the development of financial markets.     

A Class of Gaussian Hybrid Processes for Modeling Financial Markets

This paper proposes a one-factor model of financial markets using a class of Gaussian process that can be decomposed into a Brownian motion and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. It is shown that this “hybrid” process is obtained as a continuous-time scaling limit of the differenced first-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA(1,1,1)) process. Parameter estimations using an ARIMA(1,1,1) framework and its variance ratio test show the accuracy of the proposed model. Construction of the one-factor commodity futures price model is presented as an application. A multidimensional extension of the hybrid process is also presented in the Appendix.     

A Note on Interaction between Financial Markets

This paper investigates the interaction between thestock market and the stock option market. When thepredictions of the future stock price distributionsare different between markets,there is a chance that the option pricing method ofBlack and Scholes with its application to anarbitrage trading strategy may lead to substantialmarket turmoil. We will also investigatethe conditions of market stability.     

Costless Signalling in Financial Markets

A costless, fully revealing signalling equilibrium is derived from two easily understandable conditions. The outsider-rationality condition states that the outsiders relate the price that they offer to pay for a security inversely to the supply of this security, which they interpret as a quality signal. The no-arbitrage condition requires that the marginal exchange rate for two securities be the same in both primary and secondary markets. These conditions restrict the firm's financing policy and have strong implications for the valuation of securities and of the total firm. A costless signalling equilibrium is obtained.     

对我国金融效率的实证分析

改革以来,中国金融发展呈现出“高增长 ,低效率“的特点.运用数据包络( DEA)分析方法对我国 1991-2002年的金融效率的分析结果表明,我国金融体系在动员储蓄方面是有效的,但投资转化率以及资源配置效率低下,如何提高金融效率已成为中国金融发展和经济增长的关键.     

我国宏观金融效率分析

本文运用大量的数据和图表从储蓄———投资转化效率、货币政策效率、金融资源配置功能等三个方面对我国宏观金融效率进行了分析。     

Cusum Techniques for Technical Trading in Financial Markets

It is discovered that the CUSUM techniques often used in the manufacturing industry can be adapted to yield a trading strategy in the financial market. The familiar filter trading strategy in finance is found to be a particular case of CUSUM procedures. A more general form of the CUSUM techniques will yield new trading strategies which have intuitive appeals. Trading characteristics of such strategies will be investigated using CUSUM techniques.     

金融市场不当行为历史分析及启示

利用聚类分析方法,对全球26个国家1792年至今的390起金融市场不当行为案件进行研究发现,金融市场不当行为种类有限,且在世界范围内反复出现。金融产品创新并未导致不当行为增多,技术和新媒体则为其提供了便利。金融市场不当行为无法彻底消除,需综合考虑合理定性。应构建不当行为分析预警模型和快速反应处理机制,鼓励金融市场中的企业强化对不当行为的内部控制和风险管理。     

Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis

The article investigates the evidence of financial contagion and market integration in selected European equity markets during nine major crises across regions. The focus is to identify whether (i) contagion evidence is pure or fundamental and (ii) dynamic evolution of integration is in the short run or long run. Wavelet decomposition in both its discrete and continuous forms is used. The findings reveal the following: (i) prior to the subprime crisis, contagion effects generated short-term shocks. The most recent US subprime crisis, however, reveals the evidence of fundamental based contagion. (ii) We find increasing short-run and long-run stock market integration, driven by several stages of the establishment of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), questioning the ultimate benefits of formal entry into EMU membership.     

东亚国家与全球金融市场一体化研究

本文采用Lane and Milesi-Ferretti的数据,运用实际指标和理论指标来衡量东亚国家对全球金融市场一体化的程度,并与欧洲国家及其他发达工业化国家进行比较.在衡量结果的基础上,文章从东亚国家的资金双边对流及资本结构两方面对东亚与全球金融市场一体化状况进行分析.最后得出结论,东亚国家金融市场越来越开放,与全球金融市场的一体化程度在上升.     

提高金融监管效率的成本收益分析

效率是经济学永远的追求。金融效率是经济效率的一个分支，而金融监管效率则是这个分支宏观层面的重要组成部分。成本一效益分析为我们判断金融监管政策合适与否，提高金融监管效率提供了现实的思路，将这一经济分析方法运用到金融监管中来是切实可行而且相对精确的：这里将管制成本说作为理论基础，尝试引入成本一收益分析方法，作为界定、衡量、最终提高金融监管效率的有力工具。     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

Financial Markets Trends and Studies of Singapore Futures Markets

In this paper we explore some recent trends in the financial market and also report some studies of the Singapore futures markets. A characterization of trends shows that national securities markets are much closer than before. This means the linkages between securities and their derivatives and amongst themselves have be come much stronger. Secondly, the advent of sophisticated risk products and instruments and the knowledge to use them effectively would become a common theme together with the idea of value enhancements. Thirdly, computerizations and the internet will play an increasingly important role. So will empirical financial research become increasingly microscopic. The discussion will be supported by the experiences of the Singapore futures markets and various empirical research evidences. The paper also provides a detailed study of causality-in-variance test of information transmission between SIMEX and Osaka Stock Exchange on the Nikkei 225 stock index futures trading prior to, during, and immediately after the announcement of the collapse of Barings. The results are indicative of very strong international market linkages and a portent of things to come.     

金融效率分析的理论框架

传统金融学、金融发展理论和制度经济学都研究了金融效率问题。我国一些学者设计了研究金融效率问题的理论框架,但它们存在着一些缺陷。所以,研究金融效率问题应该有一个新思路。     

基子DEA分析的金融机构效率评价——以许昌市为例

通过DEA模型对许昌市6家金融机构自2002-2008年的技术效率和Malmquist指数进行分析,不仅从整体上对其效率变动情况进行考察,而且又从结构上针对各机构进行分析,并提出有效对策.研究发现,许昌市6家金融机构整体技术效率2006年前一直提高,此后开始下降,技术创新和Malmquist指数一直在不断提升.个别机构还存在着技术效率相对偏低和技术创新相对薄弱的情况.     

Informational Black Holes in Financial Markets

We show that information aggregation in primary financial markets fails precisely when investors hold socially useful information for screening projects. Being wary of the Winner's Curse, less optimistic investors refrain from making financing offers, since their offers would be accepted only when a project is unviable. Their information is therefore lost. The Winner's Curse and associated information loss grow with the number of informed market participants, so that larger markets can lead to worse financing decisions and higher cost of capital for firms seeking financing. Precommitment to ration fundraising allocations, collusive club bidding, and shorting markets can mitigate the inefficiency.     

Difference Systems in Financial Futures Markets

Many financial futures markets allow substitutions for the par grade of security at delivery. Substitutes are deliverable at premiums or discounts—“differences” in commodities parlance—to the futures price. The rule that establishes these differences is called a difference system. This paper characterizes financial futures market equilibrium with yield-based difference systems and investigates particular systems in use. The major finding is that currently used difference systems effectively limit deliverable supply in the futures markets and lead to futures prices which understate the cash market price of the par security.