Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes

In this article, we introduce the so-called stochastic conditionalintensity (SCI) model by extending Russell’s (1999) autoregressiveconditional intensity (ACI) model by a latent common dynamicfactor that jointly drives the individual intensity components.We show by simulations that the proposed model allows for awide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariatepoint processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximumlikelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS)technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading,we provide significant evidence for a joint latent factor andshow that its inclusion allows for an improved and more parsimoniousspecification of the multivariate intensity process.     

A Proposal of an International Environmental Reporting Grid: What Interest for Policymakers,Regulatory Bodies,Companies, and Researchers?: Reply to Discussion of “Mandatory Environmental Disclosures by Companies Complying with IAS/IFRS: The Case of France,Germany and the UK”

This article offers the authors' insights concerning the issues raised by Professor Trevor Wilkins in commentaries on the article “Mandatory environmental disclosures by companies complying with IAS/IFRS: the case of France, Germany, and the UK” (Barbu et al., 2014). As suggested by Professor Wilkins, we demonstrate the utility of the international environmental reporting grid proposed in Barbu et al. (2014, Table 3): (1) for IASB policymakers and other regulatory bodies, (2) for companies to improve their environmental reporting, (3) for further research, and (4) for understanding the economic and financial consequences of IAS/IFRS-compliant environmental information.     

The Political Economy of Convergence: The Case of IFRS for SMEs

This paper contributes to the discussion on the International Financial Reporting Standard for Small and Medium‐sized Enterprises (IFRS for SMEs) in the academic literature by examining the political economy of convergence, and illuminating the processes used by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to achieve convergence and participation by developing economies. The IFRS for SMEs was developed to facilitate implementation of a two‐tier reporting regime in the developing economies. Since 2000, progress towards issuance of the IFRS for SMEs has been hindered by a lack of active engagement by SMEs and academics from developing economies. It is found that (1) a lack of grounded studies and empirical knowledge on SME users’ needs impeded the development of the IFRS for SMEs; (2) the capital market assumption adopted for the IFRS is clearly inappropriate; and (3) the under‐representation of developing economies in international standard setting remains an issue. It is recommended that the IASB ascertains the users of SME reports and their needs and then develops a coherent conceptual framework for SMEs (particularly those from developing economies). The IASB needs to take into consideration the needs, culture and regulatory infrastructures of the developing economies, the political agendas of the standard‐setting stakeholders, and barriers to implementation.     

Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

Prior international accounting studies have examined mainly the supply side of analyst research. Specific trading rights and financial reporting systems in China provide a unique opportunity to test both demand and supply factors of analyst information. For shares traded only by less-informed foreign investors, the increased information demand may create incentives for analysts to exert greater efforts than for shares traded by local investors. This study provides evidence that analyst effort (proxied by analyst coverage) and expertise (proxied by consensus cross-analyst forecast variability) affect forecast accuracy more significantly for shares traded by foreign investors than for shares traded by local investors. Additionally, I find that the relation between analyst characteristics and relative forecast accuracy is stronger for shares traded by the foreign investors. The findings are consistent with analysts responding to demands for information by less-informed investors.     

Market valuations of bargain purchase gains: are these true gains under IFRS?

This study investigates stock market valuations for bargain purchase gains (BPGs) in the context of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) between 2005 and 2014. Motivated by the increased frequency and high concentration of BPGs in Europe, we study a sample of acquirers listed on the London Stock Exchange to assess the value relevance of BPGs (a) under discrepant disclosure practices (i.e. disclosure versus non- disclosure of the reasons for the gains), (b) before and after the revision of IFRS 3, and (c) considering different income classifications for BPGs (operating or non-operating earnings). BPGs, on average, are not significantly valued by the stock market. However, the post-IFRS 3 revision period, marked by stricter measurement criteria and additional disclosure requirements, witnessed a significant shift in firm valuations. BPGs for which the reason for the gain is disclosed are positively valued only in the post-IFRS 3 revision period. BPGs are consistently perceived as value irrelevant for those firms which fail to comply with mandated IFRS 3 disclosure requirements regarding the reason for the gain. Finally, BPGs classified as a component of non-operating income with sufficient note disclosure on the reason for the gain are significantly associated with prices and returns.     

International equities listed on the New York stock exchange: does type of issue or date of issue matter?

The initial short-term (21-day) and long-term (3-year) excess returns for foreign initial public offering (IPO) and seasoned equity offering (SEO) American depository receipts (ADRs) listed on the New York stock exchange from 1990 to 2009 are tested to determine differences in performance based on type of issue and date of issue for the decades of the 1990s and the 2000s. The overall sample outperformed the S&P 500 Index by over 5?% after the first 3?years of trading; however, SEO ADRs outperformed IPO ADRs by nearly 19?% (relative to the market index). Breaking IPO and SEO ADR returns down by decade of issue shows that those listed in the 2000s for both samples drastically outperformed those listed in the 1990s in the long term. Both samples of ADRs listed in the 2000s also significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index in the first 36?months of trading. In the short-term results, for the first 21?days of trading, the SEO ADRs significantly outperformed the market by 2.1?%, while IPO ADRs outperformed by 0.97?% (though not significant).     

Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly

We empirically evaluate the predictions of the mispricing hypothesis with limits-to-arbitrage suggested by Shleifer and Vishny (1997) and the q-theory with investment frictions proposed by Li and Zhang (2010) on the negative relation between asset growth and average stock returns. We conduct cross-sectional regressions of returns on asset growth on subsamples split by a given measure of limits-to-arbitrage or investment frictions. We show that: (i) proxies for limits-to-arbitrage and proxies for investment frictions are often highly correlated; (ii) the evidence based on equal-weighted returns shows significant support for both hypotheses, while the evidence from value-weighted returns is weaker; and (iii) in direct comparisons, each hypothesis is supported by a fair and similar amount of evidence.     

The subprime crisis and its consequences

Having started by describing the background to the crisis, the paper considers priorities for action by the financial industry, being: (1) improved transparency; (2) review valuation issues, notably the distinctions between IFRS and US GAAP on asset reclassification; (3) better risk management, with an appropriate mix of quantitative and qualitative metrics; (4) Improved market infrastructure, perhaps including a central counterparty for OTC derivatives; (5) an external review of ratings agencies’ processes; (6) enhanced liquidity risk management. An assessment of the measures taken by central banks to allay the crisis follows, and we conclude with an analysis of the strategic consequences for the financial industry.     

The perceiver’s social role and a risk’s causal structure as determinants of environmental risk evaluation

We present a dual-process risk perception model that integrates cognitive and emotional as well as consequentialist and deontological components by distinguishing between two modes of evaluative processing: (a) a consequentialist evaluation that focuses on potential consequences and (b) a deontological evaluation that focuses on moral values. Each of these two modes is assumed to trigger specific cognitive evaluations, specific emotions, and specific behavioral tendencies concerning a perceived risk. We conducted an experiment (N = 270) that tested whether the relative dominance of the two evaluative modes would depend on the causal structure of the environmental risk being evaluated and on the social role of the evaluator. Three types of causal structure were varied by providing scenario information: (a) anthropogenic risks that endanger only nature, (b) naturally caused risks with potential harmful consequences for humans, and (c) anthropogenic risks that may harm humans. Participants evaluated each scenario from the perspective of one of three social roles: mayor, expecting parent, and environmental activist. For each scenario, participants specified their focus and evaluated the event’s morality and perceived risk, the intensity of specific emotions, and their preferences for prospective behaviors. Results showed that the consequentialist evaluation was generally stronger than the deontological evaluation and was less affected by the experimental manipulations. The deontological evaluation was substantially affected by the risk’s causal structure. It was stronger for anthropogenic than for natural causation; risks caused by humans were associated with greater perceived moral blameworthiness, more intense morality-based emotions (e.g. outrage), and a stronger tendency to perform agent-related behaviors (e.g. aggression) than naturally occurring risks. The effect of the social role was less pronounced than that of the causal structure. Furthermore, the effect of an evaluative focus on behavior was fully mediated by emotions for deontological evaluations and partially mediated for consequentialist evaluations. The implications for environmental risk perception and communication are discussed.     

Reexamining the Robustness of the Market Value of Equity

We apply the methodology of Knez and Ready (KR) (1997) to data from the Japanese stock market and reexamine the robustness of the risk premium for the market value of equity (MVE). In particular, we compare two alternative explanations for the relation between stock returns and MVE: the one pointed out by Fama and French (FF) (1992) and the other proposed by Berk (1995). Consistent with results for the U.S. market, when we check FF's explanation for MVE, we find that the risk premium for MVE is not robust against extreme observations. Besides the evidence supporting KR's findings, we study the role of MVE proposed by Berk (1995), who points out that under controlled expected cash flows, MVE will be negatively correlated with expected returns. After showing that MVE negatively correlates with risk in the presence of expected cash flows, we test the robustness of the relation between returns and MVE. We find that the estimated risk premium for MVE is robust when realized cash flows (earnings plus depreciation) or book value of equity (BE) is used as a proxy for expected cash flows.     

The roles of alternative data and machine learning in fintech lending: Evidence from the LendingClub consumer platform

There have been concerns about the use of alternative data sources by fintech lenders. We compare loans made by LendingClub and similar loans that were originated by banks. The correlations between the rating grades (assigned by LendingClub) and the borrowers’ FICO scores declined from about 80% (for loans originated in 2007) to about 35% for recent vintages (originated in 2014–2015), indicating that nontraditional data (not already accounted for in the FICO scores) have been increasingly used by fintech lenders. The rating grades perform well in predicting loan default. The use of alternative data has allowed some borrowers who would have been classified as subprime by traditional criteria to be slotted into “better” loan grades, allowing them to obtain lower priced credit.     

An investigation of ethical position and budgeting systems: Egyptian managers in US and Egyptian firms

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible impact of ethical position and national culture on budgetary systems. In particular, the present study examines the budgeting behaviors of Egyptian managers who work for Egyptian firms and Egyptian managers who work for US firms in Egypt. Based on a survey that was administered to 395 participants, our results suggest higher (lower) levels of budgetary participation for Egyptian managers working in US (Egyptian) firms, higher (lower) levels of incentive for Egyptian managers to create slack in US (Egyptian) firms, and more (less) frequent slack-creation behavior among Egyptian managers employed by US (Egyptian) firms. Significant differences were found in the ethical orientations of Egyptian individuals employed by US firms compared with those employed by Egyptian companies. Our results also suggest that ethical orientation helps mitigate slack-creation behavior.     

Implications of Stratified Sampling for Fair Lending Binary Logit Models

We examine the effect of sample design on estimation and inference for disparate treatment in binary logistic models used to assess for fair lending. Our Monte Carlo experiments provide information on how sample design affects efficiency (in terms of mean squared error) of estimation of the disparate treatment parameter and power of a test for statistical insignificance of this parameter. The sample design requires two decision levels: first, the degree of stratification of the loan applicants (Level I Decision) and secondly, given a Level I Decision, how to allocate the sample across strata (Level II Decision). We examine four Level I stratification strategies: no stratification (simple random sampling), exogenously stratifying loan cases by race, endogenously stratifying cases by loan outcome (denied or approved), and stratifying exogenously by race and endogenously by outcome. Then, we consider five Level II methods: proportional, balanced, and three designs based on applied studies. Our results strongly support the use of stratifying by both race and loan outcome coupled with a balanced sample design when interest is in estimation of, or testing for statistical significance of, the disparate treatment parameter.     

Recursions for Distribution Functions and Stop-Loss Transforms

For any function f on the non-negative integers, we can evaluate the cumulative function o f given by o f ( s )= ~ s x=0 f ( x ) from the values of f by the recursion o f ( s )= o f ( s -1)+ f ( s ). Analogously we can use this procedure t times to evaluate the t -th order cumulative function o t f . As an alternative, in the present paper we shall derive recursions for direct evaluation of o t f when f itself satisfies a certain sort of recursion. We shall also derive recursions for the t -th order tails v t f where v f ( s )= ~ X x=s+1 f ( x ). The recursions can be applied for exact and approximate evaluation of distribution functions and stop-loss transforms of probability distributions. The class of recursions for f includes the classes discussed by Sundt (1992), incorporating the class studied by Panjer's (1981). We discuss in particular convolutions and compound functions.     

Does the value of cash holdings deteriorate or improve with material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting?

We find that cash holdings are more valuable for firms disclosing material weaknesses in the Sarbanes–Oxley (SOX) 404 internal control assessments. We estimate that the value spread for firms with weak controls vs. effective controls is about $0.25 for an extra dollar of cash. Our results are not driven by account-level weaknesses but by more severe, company-level weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting (ICFR). Further, the economic consequences of cash resources significantly decrease with the remediation of previously reported material weaknesses. These results suggest that the favorable (precautionary) impact induced by weak ICFR appears to more than offset the adverse (agency) effect entailed by ineffective ICFR. Overall, our results survive alternative variable specifications, sample splits, matched sample analyses, and a variety of controls.     

Financial liberalization,bureaucratic corruption and economic development

We study the effect of international financial integration on economic development when the quality of governance may be compromised by corruption. Our analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small economy in which growth is driven by capital accumulation and public policy is administered by government-appointed bureaucrats. Corruption may arise due to the opportunity for bureaucrats to embezzle public funds, an opportunity that is made more attractive by financial liberalization which, at the same time, raises efficiency in capital production. Our main results may be summarized as follows: (1) corruption is always bad for economic development, but its effect is worse if the economy is open than if it is closed; (2) the incidence of corruption may, itself, be affected by both the development and openness of the economy; (3) financial liberalization is good for development when governance is good, but may be bad for development when governance is bad; and (4) corruption and poverty may coexist as permanent, rather than just transitory, fixtures of an economy.     

Testing for structural breaks in correlations: Does it improve Value-at-Risk forecasting?

In this paper, we modify the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model and its dynamic counterpart, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model by combining them with a pairwise test for constant correlations, a test for a constant correlation matrix, and a test for a constant covariance matrix. We compare these models to their plain counterparts with respect to the accuracy for forecasting the Value-at-Risk of financial portfolios by a set of distinct backtests. In an empirical horse race of these models based on multivariate portfolios, our study shows that correlation models can be improved by approaches modified by tests for structural breaks in co-movements in several settings.     

Voluntary disclosure of reasons for auditor changes and the capital market reaction to information disclosure

This study examines the association between firm attributes and management’s voluntary disclosure of the reason(s) for auditor changes and evaluates the capital market reaction to information disclosure of the auditor change events accompanied by preexisting red flag and non-red flag issues. We find that managers are more likely to disclose the reason(s) for auditor changes when those changes occurred because of benign business reasons or if the reasons do not indicate the presence of any underlying operating or financial reporting problem. On the other hand, managers are less likely to disclose the reason(s) for auditor changes when those changes are preceded by red-flag situations. Furthermore, auditor changes accompanied by preexisting red-flag situations are viewed negatively by the capital market, implying that the full disclosure of reasons for auditor changes is informative to investors. This observation is supported further by our market-based analyses, which consistently show that auditor changes accompanied by prevailing red flag issues are valued incrementally in the market above and beyond the reportable events (under FRR No. 31) and auditor-initiated changes. The study contributes to the recent policy debate related to mandating the disclosure of the reason(s) for auditor switches. Specifically, the results support the recent debates that the current voluntary disclosure regime results in selective disclosure practices that are likely to contribute to the general lack of transparency with respect to auditor changes.     

Does implementation guidance affect opportunistic reporting and value relevance of earnings?

In recent years, both the SEC (2003) and the FASB (2004) [Securities and Exchange Commission, 2003. Study Pursuant to Section 108(d) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the Adoption by the United States Financial Reporting System of a Principles-Based Accounting System. Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington, DC; the Financial Accounting Standards Board, 2004. On the road to an objectives-oriented accounting system. Financial Accounting Series: The FASB Report (August 31), 1–5.] have indicated a need for accounting standards where principles are balanced by implementation guidance (i.e., a framework for exercising professional judgment). In this study, we take advantage of a jurisdictional split during 1996–2001 whereby the same economic event (i.e., an impairment in oil and gas assets) in the extractive petroleum industry was accounted for by “full cost” firms under a SEC standard (Regulation SX 4-10) which provides extensive implementation guidance, and by “successful efforts” firms under a FASB standard (SFAS No. 121) that provided relatively little guidance for implementing the standard.