Youth labor market expectations and job matching in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from school-to-work transition surveys

In this paper, we investigate the factors that influence youth labour market expectations and outcomes. We also perform a job matching exercise to understand youth labour market dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results show that youth education is an influential factor of youth employment expectations and employment, ceteris paribus. Higher educational attainments have a great impact on expecting and securing better jobs, particularly in the technical and professional fields. Youth with low educational attainments, particularly primary education and lower, have a higher tendency to expect to be employed in occupations with low job complexity. Our results indicate a severe job-skill mismatch in all occupational categories, both before and after the youth’s transition into the labour market. Using education as the only selection criterion, we found that less than 10 per cent of employment expectations match with skills required while 55 per cent and 34 per cent are under or over-educated for the jobs expected, respectively. Over and under education is a notable feature in youth labour markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. About 47 per cent of employed youth in the sample are overqualified for their respective jobs while 28 per cent are under qualified.     

Overseas Investment and Firm Exports

A firm can serve overseas customers by exporting or by producing in the foreign market. Thus, ceteris paribus , one might expect increases in overseas investment to displace exports. However, most empirical work has found a positive relation between the two variables. The authors use a panel dataset containing 25 years' of data on 932 Japanese manufacturing firms to investigate the effect direct investment abroad has on exports. For the full sample of firms, complementarity is found. The relationship, however, varies across firms. Those that are unlikely to ship intermediates to overseas production affiliates exhibit substitution.     

The Impact of Incomes Policy on Aggregate Wage Determination in Australia*

A model of aggregate wage determination for Australia is developed and used to examine the effects of incomes policies on the level of real wages. A theoretical model of wage determination which includes several channels of incomes policy effects is specified and estimated using aggregate data. The results provide strong evidence to support the view that during periods of certain incomes policies there have been important changes in behaviour in the Australian labour market. In particular, during the period of the Prices and Incomes Accord it is estimated that equilibrium real wages were over 5 per cent below what would have been expected from previous experience.     

Why is There a Graduate Earnings Premium for Students From Independent Schools?

We examine the determinants of occupational earnings of UK 1993 graduates and focus on the influence of the type of school the graduate attended prior to university entrance. For data reasons, we restrict attention to graduates who attended school in England. We estimate that, on average, a male (female) graduate who attended an Independent school receives an earnings premium of 3.1 per cent (3.4 per cent) over and above the earnings of a graduate who attended an LEA school, ceteris paribus . We also find considerable variation across different Independent schools in the size of the graduate earnings premium, especially for males, and show that in the case of males the premium increases with the level of school fees, but is not statistically related to measures of school–level average academic performance.     

Immigrant Earnings Adjustment: The Impact of Age at Migration

Human capital theory, in conjunction with Chiswick's (1978 ) and Borjas' (1998) work, implies the post-migration path of immigrant earnings is likely to depend on the age at migration. An adaptation of Borjas' (1998) model of immigrant wage determination is presented which predicts, for a given stock of human capital at the point of migration, lower initial earnings for younger arrivals, but faster earnings growth with time in the destination country. Empirical tests on data for Australian immigrants provide qualified support for the hypothesis that initial wages are, ceteris paribus , increasing in age at migration and the rate of wage growth is decreasing in age at migration.     

Sex Differences in Labour Turnover in the Australian Public Service*

This paper reports the use of a large data set of Australian government employees in an analysis of the influence of sex on voluntary labour turnover. Estimates derived from a conventional quit model are used to obtain ceteris paribus sex specific quit probabilities. These suggest that once other relevant variables are held constant, the expected quit differences between men and single women are significantly reduced. The analysis indicates clearly that the use of aggregate statistics may substantially exaggerate turnover differences attributable to sex.     

Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator

This article uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of a reduction in the means‐tested benefit taper, or withdrawal, rates in Australia to 30 per cent. That is, all taper rates of 50 per cent and 70 per cent in the March 1998 benefit system are reduced to 30 per cent, while leaving all basic benefit levels unchanged. This change is therefore expected to ‘flatten’ the tax structure by reducing the high marginal tax rates applying to those with relatively low incomes and increasing the marginal tax rates of medium incomes. Simulations in which all individuals are assumed to remain at their pre‐reform labour supply levels are compared with behavioural simulations in which the majority of individuals are free to adjust the number of hours worked. The results reflect only the supply side of the labour market. The database used is the 1997‐98 Survey of Income and Housing Costs, so that weekly incomes are based on the financial year 1997‐98. The comparison shows that, for sole parents, accounting for behavioural effects of the reform results in a lower estimated expenditure for government, whereas for couples, accounting for behavioural effects results in a higher estimated expenditure.     

WORKERS' ENTERPRISES AND THE TASTE FOR PRODUCTION: THE ARTS, SPORT AND OTHER CASES

This paper shows that the standard result according to which labour-managed (LM) firms produce a lower amount of output, as compared with profit-maximizing firms, is reversed if production per se gives utility and the workers' membership of LM firms is set before market decisions. Under the same hypotheses, the LM firms set a higher product quality than the profit-oriented ones, ceteris paribus . The considered hypotheses are appropriate in several sectors, but they are particularly relevant in the case of the performing arts.     

Australian Capital City Real House Prices, 1979–1993

Real house prices have increased by 35 per cent in Australian capital cities during the last 15 years, with Brisbane, Canberra, and Sydney experiencing rises of 48 to 61 per cent and Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth having increases of 20 per cent or less. This article estimates a single model for the six cities to explain the divergent real price behaviour over time and space. It is concluded that the fundamental forces driving real house prices are the growth rate in real wage income (primarily due to employment growth) and the growth in population caused by net overseas migration.     

The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka

We study the responsiveness of rice production to climatic variation using a recent pseudo-panel data set from Sri Lanka. Output per farm is modelled as a non-linear function of temperature and rainfall (and other standard controls) using fixed effects regressions. We find that both climatic variables have concave, non-monotonic effects upon production, and that output is close to maximized at current climatic values. This implies that variations in growing conditions are likely to have negative effects upon production. Random simulations are used to model these impacts under various climate change scenarios, and we find that increasing temperatures will adversely affect rice production much more than varying rainfall, although the effects of a small ceteris paribus rise in temperature are positive. As rice production is a key component in economic output for Sri Lanka and other developing countries, our results have implications for food policy and poverty management in the future.     

Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures

This paper decomposes the redistributive effect on annual and lifetime inquality of a range of taxes and transfers in Australia, using a dynamic cohort lifetime simulation model. The redistributive effect is decomposed into vertical, horizontal and reranking effects. Horizontal inequities in the tax and transfer system are found to be negligible. The extent of reranking is greater in the lifetime than in the annual context and is affected by the equivalence scales used to adjust household incomes. If no adjustment is made to household incomes, reranking is about nine per cent of the reduction in lifetime inequality. However, if each child is counted as equivalent to one-third of an adult, reranking is found to be less than one per cent.     

Retraining the Unemployed in a Model of Equilibrium Employment

An equilibrium model of search and matching is developed to analyse the effects of retraining the unemployed on the market for skilled (or semi-skilled) workers. Versions of the model with free entry of vacancies and fixed numbers of jobs are considered. The latter environment exhibits multiple equilibria. While subsidized training (and enforced participation) is justified on employment grounds, it cannot be justified on efficiency grounds. Policies that, ceteris paribus , lower unemployment, also reduce the incentive to train. When such policies are introduced to a training economy, training may cease and unemployment can rise.     

Strategic Tax Competition in Switzerland: Evidence from a Panel of the Swiss Cantons

Abstract. Tax competition is discussed as a source of inefficiency in international taxation and in fiscal federalism. Two preconditions for the existence of such effects of tax competition are that mobile factors locate or reside in jurisdictions with – ceteris paribus – lower tax rates, and that taxes are actually set strategically in order to attract mobile production factors. It is well known from studies about Swiss cantonal and local income tax competition that Swiss taxpayers reside where income taxes are low. In this paper, empirical results on strategic tax setting by cantonal governments are presented for a panel of the Swiss cantons from 1984 to 1999. Completing the evidence on Swiss tax competition, income tax rates in cantons are the lower, the lower the tax rates of their neighbors.     

Measuring the Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Investment in Australian Manufacturing Industry*

This paper examines the relationship between exchange rates and investment in Australian manufacturing between 1988 and 2001. The effects of exchange rates on investment are found to vary positively with the export share of sales and negatively with the share of imported inputs into production, with lower price‐over‐cost mark‐ups increasing the response. For Australian manufacturing, a 10 per cent real appreciation of the Australian dollar leads to an average 8.0 per cent decrease in total investment through the export share channel, and an average 3.8 per cent increase through the imported input share channel, with most of the response occurring through investment in equipment, plant and machinery.     

The market value of preventive activities: A contingent-claims approach

We use a contingent-claims approach to determine the market value of preventive investments. We show that the lower the initial probability of accident, the greater is the market value of a reduction in this probability. Besides, at initially low probabilities, ceteris paribus, the market gives a higher value to a reduction in accident probability when aggregate (correlated) catastrophic risks rather than independent ones are involved. The reverse occurs at initially high probabilities.     

Teachers' Unions and Student Achievement in High School Economics

High school students in unionized schools score higher on the Test of Economic Literacy than students in nonunion districts, ceteris paribus.     

Economic Aspects of the Foreign Student Question*

Foreign students comprise about 4 per cent of total student enrolments at Australian universities and colleges. The numbers of private overseas students in Australia are regulated by quota and by the imposition of a subsidized fee. Australian government policy towards overseas students has been discussed in two recent government reports which reach conflicting conclusions about desirable policy changes. This paper puts forward the arguments against which the economic aspects of these two reports can be judged, discussing the theoretical basis for regulation by fees and quotas and applying these considerations in the present A ustralian context. It is found that, despite some recent moves in the right direction, Australian policy towards foreign students and towards the use of tertiary education as a medium of foreign aid, is still short of ideal when judged on economic grounds.     

The Distributional Effects of Inflation in Australia 1980–1995

This paper examines the distributional effects of price changes in Australia over the period 1980 to 1995, using equivalent variations and equivalent incomes. The Linear Expenditure System is applied to each of a range of income groups rather than using a single set of parameters. The price changes are found to impose a relatively higher burden on lower income groups in some years, although in other years the higher income groups were affected relatively more. The distribution of equivalent incomes has the highest inequality in years of high overall inflation. However, the effects on inequality are low: the highest increase in inequality as a result of differential price changes is less than one per cent.     

Occupational Structure and Incidence of Poverty in Indian Towns of Different Sizes

This paper investigates the incidence of poverty in Indian towns and cities of various sizes of population. It also tests the hypothesis that larger towns and cities, because of their size, are capable of supporting more complex economic activities, improving labor productivity, and hence lowering the incidence of poverty. In particular, similar levels of education, ceteris paribus, have a larger impact in bigger conurbations.     

Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis

This paper tests Milton Friedman's hypothesis that increases in inflation uncertainty, ceteris paribus, yield higher levels of unemployment. Tests are made using quarterly measures of inflation uncertainty taken from the ASA-NBER survey. Based on data from the 1972–1984 period, we find general support for the hypothesis.