WESTERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVES: OIL AND NATURAL GAS

Among nations that are net oil exporters, those that are net importers, and those in balance, there are conflicting interests regarding the price level—which currently is many times the competitive level. However, avoiding too brusque a price change is in the interest of all. A glut was no barrier to price increases after 1973, nor in 1978. And a glut is not an absolute barrier even today. Nations which comprise the oil cartel have short horizons and high discount factors. This increases the likelihood that they will attempt price hikes and makes any equilibrium precarious. Even non-cartel nations produce less oil and gas than would be profitable because governments, responding to public opinion, try to obtain more rent than there is to take. These governments apparently use unrealistically low discount rates. This paper attempts to point out parallel, common, and conflicting interests among the nations of the Western Hemisphere regarding price and production policy on crude oil and natural gas. In crude oil and oil products, Argentina is in balance, and Canada is practically so. Venezuela and Ecuador, both OPEC members, are net exporters. Mexico, a de facto member of OPEC, has observed a self-imposed quota more faithfully than some OPEC members. The rest of the nations in the hemisphere are net importers.     

EVOLUTION OF THE OIL MARKET AND ENERGY SECURITY POLICY

This paper examines a number of issues that affect the U.S. government's role in responding to future energy crises. The paper argues that we do not adequately understand why oil prices behaved as they did during the two price shocks of the 1970s, and that the market has evolved in ways that will alter future price behavior compared with that of the past. Consequently, it is unwise to formulate energy policies on the basis of specific forecasts of market conditions, or to plan to fight repetitions of past oil market crises. To be effective, energy security policy must be designed to motivate the private sector and other governments to respond in ways consistent with policy objectives.     

INFORMATION EXTERNALITIES IN OIL AND GAS LEASING

This paper discusses the theory and measurement of information externalities in oil and gas leasing. A study of leases issued in the Gulf of Mexico reveals significant positive information externalities resulting from prior development of adjoining leases. According to a recent court decision, these effects provide an added consideration in the determination of a "fair and equitable" division of revenues from federal tracts adjoining state lands, as required by the 1978 amendments to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act     

REGULATORY REFORM: LESSONS FOR NATURAL GAS PIPELINES

This article examines regulatory reform and some possible consequences of reform designed to increase the role that competition plays in the interstate natural gas pipeline industry. The analysis first provides a conceptual framework for viewing the "problem of natural monopoly" as a basis for regulation. It summarizes ways in which introducing competition for a market may be possible even if competition within a market is not possible–through competitive auctions, monopolistic competition, or contestability. The analysis then relates briefly to this framework the experiences of three U.S. industries that have undergone substantial reform during recent years–airlines, motor carriers, and railroads. Finally, it compares the natural gas pipeline industry with the others examined and suggests types of regulatory reform that might succeed–and those that might not succeed–in improving resource allocation.     

OPEN ACCESS AND THE EMERGENCE OF A COMPETITIVE NATURAL GAS MARKET

Recent regulatory changes permitted natural gas pipelines to become "open access" transporters. This change in pipeline carrier status dissolved regulatory barriers to markets. This paper describes the institutions that were developed to support exchange in gas markets and observes and evaluates their emergence, evolution, and performance. The institutional and empirical evidence reveals that gas markets rapidly emerged with the dissolution of regulatory barriers. Spot gas prices converged and became highly correlated. A national market for natural gas developed within four years.     

能源效率提升与需求侧管理融资:机制设计和政策重构

需求侧管理(DSM)在中国发展的主要瓶颈之一在于缺乏长期、稳定、充足的资金流入相关的项目。笔者设计了可行的"系统效益收费"(SBC)政策"五年行动计划",旨在为其提供长期稳定的资金,促使来自银行和资本市场的资金流向能效和需求侧管理项目;同时,本文也探讨了运用来自"清洁发展机制"(CDM)项目资金支持需求侧管理项目的可能性。"系统效益收费"是推动需求侧管理项目获得长期、足够资金支持的最佳政策之一。当前相对可控的通胀和低电价是加速系统效益收费政策实施和需求侧管理发展的有利时机。考虑到发展不平衡,中国需要相应的政策设计(例如税收减免和财政补贴)抵消这些政策对不同地区的冲击,制定明确清晰的目标和时间表来推动需求侧管理,使企业和家庭有一个明确清晰的预期并逐渐适应。政府应该公布一个清晰的需求侧管理近期、中期和长期的综合发展计划以及相应的政策大纲。     

A REGIONAL MODEL OF OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION IN THE UKCS

Existing exploration–discovery models are generally characterised by equations describing the behaviour of exploration, success rates, and discoveries. The present paper adds two equations describing the behaviour of finding costs and exploration efficiency. The model was disaggregated along regional lines. Applying the model to UK Continental Shelf data over the period 1964–2002 produced results that supported the new approach. Analysis of the model dynamics and simulation forecast reveals similarities, but also important differences in the responsiveness of activity in the regions to policy multipliers, implying that uniform policy instruments will produce unequal responses in areas with different levels of maturity.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF CLEANUP: ESTIMATING SUNK COSTS IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

The environmental remediation required to permanently decommission most industrial projects is an expensive, irreversible investment. Real options literature shows that temporary closure has value under uncertainty. However, even if there is no intention to restart operations, there is an incentive to label a closure as “temporary” to avoid having to remediate ongoing or future environmental externalities. I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of closure under price and quantity uncertainty to evaluate the likelihood of reactivation. The model reveals that the option to temporarily close is being widely used to avoid environmental remediation of oil and gas wells in Canada.     

REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.     

内外经济政策不确定对中国出口贸易及其发展边际的影响*

本文分析了国内和国外政策不确定对中国出口贸易及其分解的影响，探究了它们的作用差异、具体特点及影响渠道。本文研究发现，国内和国外政策的不确定均显著阻碍了中国出口贸易及其广义边际、集约边际的发展，且前者作用格外突出。同时，控制了经济运行周期、经济危机的影响后，本文的基本结论仍比较稳健。此外，扩展研究发现政策不确定对中国出口的作用还依赖出口市场特点、行业要素密集度和出口沉没成本等因素。最后，本文还利用微观数据进行了简单的机制验证。     

人民币国际化：路径、前景与方向

本文从人民币国际化的国内外环境入手,提出基于货币职能的人民币国际化渐进路径。以经验模型为基础,研究表明若全方位国际化将推动人民币在官方储备、国际清算和国际债券的存量和流量上快速提升,但近期很难冲击美元地位。面对广阔前景,本文强调未来人民币国际化与国内改革的协调与相互配合,积极参与国际市场和国际治理,建设跨境渠道和发挥香港离岸市场作用等方向同时推进。     

INFORMATION, WILDLIFE VALUATION, CONSERVATION: EXPERIMENTS AND POLICY

The authors use experimental surveys to investigate the association between individuals' knowledge of particular wildlife species and their stated willingness to allocate funds to conserve each. The nature of variations in these allocations between species (e.g., their dispersion) as participants' knowledge increases is examined. Factors influencing these changes are suggested. Willingness-to-pay allocations are found not to measure the economic value of species, but are shown to be policy relevant. The results indicate that poorly known species, e.g., in remote areas, may obtain relatively less conservation support than they deserve. (JEL Q51 , Q57 , Q58 )     

IMMIGRATION POLICY, CULTURAL PLURALISM AND TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM THE WHITE AUSTRALIA POLICY

Abstract.   Examining data for Australia and 101 trading partners that span the years 1989–2000, we find immigrants from nations afforded preference under the White Australia policy exert greater proportional influences on Australian imports from their home countries compared to immigrants from nations not privy to such preference. Immigrants from this latter group of countries influence Australian exports to their home countries proportionally more than do immigrants from the former group. We also find immigrant-trade links vary across disaggregated measures of trade. The results suggest that cultural diversity, affected here by immigration policy, is relevant to a nation's trade patterns.     

UK INFLATION: PERSISTENCE, SEASONALITY AND MONETARY POLICY

In the light of the changes to UK monetary policy since the early 1980s, we study the existence and nature of changes in the properties of retail price inflation over this period. A feature of our analysis is the attention paid to the marked seasonal pattern of monthly UK inflation. After taking account of seasonality, both univariate and Phillips curve models provide strong evidence of changes in the level and persistence of inflation around the end of 1992, at the time of the introduction of inflation targeting. Indeed, all models point to the effective disappearance of inflation persistence after this date, implying that constant-parameter models estimated using both pre- and post-inflation targeting data periods should be treated with considerable caution.     

GLOBAL OIL PRICES,OIL INDUSTRY AND EQUITY RETURNS: RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE

The purpose of this paper is to promote a greater understanding of the implications of oil price changes on the equity investment climate in Russia. A dynamic bivariate exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) analysis shows that global oil price returns have significant impact on Russian equity returns and volatility. At the same time, a dynamic correlation analysis highlights Russia's importance in the international geopolitical scene and its positioning as a reliable supplier of oil during times of turmoil in the Middle East. There are a number of challenges, however, that threaten to slow down the performance of the oil industry in Russia and compromise the country's future economic growth and stock market performance.     

国际金融形势分析与展望

2002年全球金融板块呈现调整特征:一是国际股票市场全线大跌,但其他市场却有不同程度的“好”行情;二是股票、风险投资等直接融资受挫,银行信贷等间接融资重拾风光;三是美元强货币走跌,欧元等弱货币走强;四是美国等强势金融体遭困,东南亚等弱势金融体逞强。与此相对应,中国的对外金融呈现一派繁荣景象,以开放促改革的局面初步形成。