EVOLUTION OF THE OIL MARKET AND ENERGY SECURITY POLICY

This paper examines a number of issues that affect the U.S. government's role in responding to future energy crises. The paper argues that we do not adequately understand why oil prices behaved as they did during the two price shocks of the 1970s, and that the market has evolved in ways that will alter future price behavior compared with that of the past. Consequently, it is unwise to formulate energy policies on the basis of specific forecasts of market conditions, or to plan to fight repetitions of past oil market crises. To be effective, energy security policy must be designed to motivate the private sector and other governments to respond in ways consistent with policy objectives.     

OPEN ACCESS AND THE EMERGENCE OF A COMPETITIVE NATURAL GAS MARKET

Recent regulatory changes permitted natural gas pipelines to become "open access" transporters. This change in pipeline carrier status dissolved regulatory barriers to markets. This paper describes the institutions that were developed to support exchange in gas markets and observes and evaluates their emergence, evolution, and performance. The institutional and empirical evidence reveals that gas markets rapidly emerged with the dissolution of regulatory barriers. Spot gas prices converged and became highly correlated. A national market for natural gas developed within four years.     

A REGIONAL MODEL OF OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION IN THE UKCS

Existing exploration–discovery models are generally characterised by equations describing the behaviour of exploration, success rates, and discoveries. The present paper adds two equations describing the behaviour of finding costs and exploration efficiency. The model was disaggregated along regional lines. Applying the model to UK Continental Shelf data over the period 1964–2002 produced results that supported the new approach. Analysis of the model dynamics and simulation forecast reveals similarities, but also important differences in the responsiveness of activity in the regions to policy multipliers, implying that uniform policy instruments will produce unequal responses in areas with different levels of maturity.     

REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.     

UK INFLATION: PERSISTENCE, SEASONALITY AND MONETARY POLICY

In the light of the changes to UK monetary policy since the early 1980s, we study the existence and nature of changes in the properties of retail price inflation over this period. A feature of our analysis is the attention paid to the marked seasonal pattern of monthly UK inflation. After taking account of seasonality, both univariate and Phillips curve models provide strong evidence of changes in the level and persistence of inflation around the end of 1992, at the time of the introduction of inflation targeting. Indeed, all models point to the effective disappearance of inflation persistence after this date, implying that constant-parameter models estimated using both pre- and post-inflation targeting data periods should be treated with considerable caution.     

GLOBAL OIL PRICES,OIL INDUSTRY AND EQUITY RETURNS: RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE

The purpose of this paper is to promote a greater understanding of the implications of oil price changes on the equity investment climate in Russia. A dynamic bivariate exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) analysis shows that global oil price returns have significant impact on Russian equity returns and volatility. At the same time, a dynamic correlation analysis highlights Russia's importance in the international geopolitical scene and its positioning as a reliable supplier of oil during times of turmoil in the Middle East. There are a number of challenges, however, that threaten to slow down the performance of the oil industry in Russia and compromise the country's future economic growth and stock market performance.     

ELECTRIC POWER DEREGULATION: BACKGROUND AND PROSPECTS

The incentive failures of rate-of-return regulation are well known and thus raise the question of whether to deregulate electric power. The development of long-distance transmission and of alternative power sources in networks has spawned several institutions that would or could allow markets to substitute for such regulation. These include long-term contract sales, spot power exchange, contract power pooling, shared facility ownership, and economic dispatch. Because of the current surplus of power, the existence of such institutions has caused increasing competition in the electric power market and has catalyzed the movement to deregulate generators from state authority and to restructure utility assets. By encouraging this movement, regulators can further the discipline that markets already exert on prices and costs. By making counterproposals to the utilities, regulators can influence asset restructuring so that some of the capital gains inherent in such restructuring can be shared with consumers in the form of rate relief. Finally, for the future, the cotenancy agreement—which is antitrust supervised and competitively ruled—has promising possibilities for deregulating transmission and distribution.     

BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL METHOD PATENTS, INNOVATION, AND POLICY

Court decisions in the 1990s are widely viewed as having opened the door to a flood of business method and financial patents at the US Patent and Trademark Office, and to have also impacted other patent offices around the world. A number of scholars, both legal and economic, have critiqued both the quality of these patents and the decisions themselves. This paper reviews the history of business method and financial patents briefly and then explores what economists know about the relationship between the patent system and innovation, in order to draw some tentative conclusions about their likely impact. It concludes by finding some consensus in the literature about the problems associated with this particular expansion of patentable subject matter, highlighting the remaining areas of disagreement, and reviewing the various policy recommendations.     

CONTRACTING OUT,PUBLIC POLICY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Relatively little is known about the impact of public policies on the decisions of firms to contract out parts of their production, despite widespread growth in this practice. The present paper uses a simple principal‐agent model to explore the effects of various public policies which affect employers' incentives to outsource by re‐grading their employees as independent self‐employed contractors. Minimum wages are predicted to increase contracting out, as are payroll and income taxes under several plausible conditions, including worker preferences exhibiting constant relative risk aversion.     

JOINT VENTURES, POLLUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

We examine the impact of emission taxes on the pollution level in a duopoly framework with endogenous market structure. We demonstrate that an increase in emission taxes could trigger a regime switch from joint ventures to Cournot competition, causing the pollution level to increase. Such a phenomenon is likely to happen when the concerned industry is reasonably profitable, and the synergistic gain between joint venture partners is not too strong. Moreover, emission taxes can implement the first best outcome if and only if the industry is not too polluting. In case it is, the second best level of taxes may or may not equal the optimal tax under either joint venture or Cournot competition.     

世界油气工业空间结构模式初探

从世界油气资源的空间结构入手，根据其与社会经济空间结构的耦合关系，提出世界油气工业三大空间结构模式，即协同发展(就近供应)模式、通道发展模式和点轴发展模式，以期能为我国油气工业的发展提供有益的思路和借鉴。     

ENERGY-EFFICIENT LIGHTING: MARKET DATA, MARKET IMPERFECTIONS, AND POLICY SUCCESS

Many economists question engineering-economic studies aimed at demonstrating anomalously slow diffusion of energy-efficient technology and the benefits of regulations to promote such technology. One argument against such studies is that standard techniques of engineering economics are either inappropriate or are routinely misapplied in assessing the performance of the market for energy efficiency. This paper takes account of such critiques in presenting engineering-economic evidence on the diffusion of energy efficiency improvements. It examines the engineering and economic characteristics of standard and energy-efficient magnetic ballasts for fluorescent lighting. Efficient magnetic ballasts represent an excellent investment for 99 percent of the commercial building floor stock and a moderately good investment for 0.7 percent of the commercial floor stock. Still, in the 1980s these ballasts were being adopted only at a rate commensurate with the enactment of appliance efficiency standards in various states. In this case, solid empirical evidence supports skepticism about the effectiveness of the market mechanism in promoting cost-effective energy efficiency improvements and about the benefits of regulation to counteract this shortcoming.     

西部大开发:重点、进展、政策与创新

实施西部大开发战略,关系全国发展的大局,关系民族团结和边疆稳定。西部大开发的政策适用范围,包括12个省、自治区、直辖市,3个少数民族自治州比照有关政策措施予以照顾。西部大开发有四项重点任务,选定了重点区域,实行重点开发。3年来西部大开发有了一个良好开端。国家实行重点支持西部大开发的政策措施,并已出台政策措施与规划。我国加入WTO和党的十六大召开,西部大开发还需要理论和政策创新,笔者尝试着提出了四点创新的思路。     

中国城市化进程的特点,动力机制及发展前景

城市化是当今世界的主要趋势,城市化水平的高低是衡量一个国家经济发展水平的重要标志。本文通过分析中国城市化进程的主要特点和动力机制,指出在城市化过程中存在四个方面的问题,并在此基础上,预测了中国未来城市化的发展前景,提出了具体的措施和建议,以推动中国城市化进程的健康发展。     

ENERGY UTILITIES, CONSERVATION, AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

Academic and policy debate has centered around an apparent "underinvestment in conservation." This paper outlines traditional explanations for underinvestment and presents a prospect theory analysis of individual conservation behavior. On the basis of investment criteria, individuals seem to discriminate against conservation investments. While these decisions might appear rational as life style decisions, individual choice across different household appliances shows little consistency. For policymaking purposes, understanding and modeling actual behavior is crucial to maximizing social welfare. The insight of certain positive models of human behavior supports economic efficiency arguments for marketplace intervention. This paper argues that because individuals making conservation investment decisions apparently do not act according to the dictates of utilitarian economics, utility sponsored conservation programs are justified on economic efficiency grounds. Finally, in light of prospect theory considerations, the paper suggests marketing guidelines for conservation investments sponsored by electric utilities.     

PACIFIC RIM TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL ENVIRONMENT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Pacific Asia is deep rooted in its cultural heritage and historical background, which have set the tone for regions success. These same factors also have created rather different trading practices, compared with those of the West — practices that are less transparent and full of hidden private trade barriers.
Interdependence within the region suggests integration, but Pacific Asia has taken a course of non-exclusive cooperation rather than following the exclusive course of the European Community (EC) and of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The latter two trade blocs threaten the continued success and development of Pacific Asia. Although the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) sends relief, fostering a cooperative rather than a retaliative Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization offers the most promise.