Effects of congestion on the shape of a city

This paper develops a model for the allocation of urban land among the residential and transportation sectors and the central business district. The model is used to derive the intensity of land use, i.e., the capital per unit of land, in the residential and transportation sectors. Two different institutional arrangements are discussed: a central planning agency, and a competitive market. It is shown that the externalities imposed by traffic congestion results in the market city being larger (for the same population), and with flatter density profiles.     

财政分权、政府竞争与土地价格结构性偏离

财政分权背景下地方政府的财政约束和政府竞争是导致土地价格结构性偏离的根本原因。地方政府存在拉升商业用地和居住用地出让价格的倾向,金融宽松环境和投机行为盛行会使这两种土地出让价格存在正向偏离其理论地价的可能;而地方政府对流动性税基的争夺过程会导致工业用地出让价格低于其理论价格。工业用地价格与商业和居住用地价格正是在政府这两种反作用力量的作用下出现结构性偏离。     

基于ESDA的城市住宅地价时空分异研究——以南京市为例

通过对住宅地价样点数据的收集和处理,运用GIS空间探索性分析(ESDA)技术对南京市2000-2009年住宅用地出让地价进行了空间特征分析,生成数字地价模型,探索住宅地价空间分布规律,并通过空间分析技术从微观区位层次来研究地价时空差异。研究发现:南京市住宅地价呈现明显的单中心空间结构,并表现出点轴扩展模式;随着时间推移,南京市住宅地价空间结构不断反生变化,地价峰值中心开始向南、向东扩散;地铁快速交通、城市规划及环境等因素对地价时空变异起着重要的影响作用。     

农村集体建设用地基准地价初步研究——以安徽省良玉村为例

以安徽省良玉村为例,对农村集体建设用地的地价内涵、估价方法、地价影响因素进行了研究,并从6个方面选取了影响土地价格最为密切的17个因子,采用层次分析法定级,其定级综合分值位于0.35—0．65之间,土地等级被划分为四个,主要评价单元属于二级水平。考虑集体建设用地的特点,采用收益还原法、成本逼近法、市场比较法计算样点地价,并采用平均值法分别确定商业用地、住宅用地、工业用地的基准地价。结果表明：对于商业用地和住宅用地,一级土地和二级土地之间的价格差异最大,其余各级土地之间的地价差异依次递减,表明土地质量越好,价格反映越敏感。同级土地价格变化范围的差异：商业用地价格级差大于住宅用地,住宅用地大于工业用地,表明与城镇建设用地相同,集体建设用地地价对土地质量敏感性的反应也是商业用地〉住宅用地〉工业用地。     

城市公园绿地供给的公平性定量评价 ——以重庆市中心城区为例

土地和房地产市场化背景下的公园绿地供给的公平 性研究具有重要意义。以重庆市中心城区为例,居住小区为研 究单元,从可达性、数量、面积和质量４个维度衡量不同价格 级别居住小区的公园供给的公平性。采用高德互联网地图分析 步行、公共交通２种方式下研究范围内4 663个居住小区的 公园供给的可达性、数量、面积和质量状况;非参数秩和检验 判别不同级别居住小区的公园供给差异。结果表明：不同级别 居住小区的公园供给未发现明显的不公平现象,低级别居住小 区在可达性、数量、总面积上占优势,人均公园面积低于高级 别居住小区,各级别居住小区在高质量公园的使用机会上没有 差异。本文所采用的公园绿地公平性定量评价方法,可为城市 绿色空间、公共服务设施绩效评价提供方法借鉴     

宅基地拆迁赔偿的地域差异

本文用全国范围的调研数据和实证分析的方法,发现宅基地占地面积、建筑面积、家庭总人口和村庄距城市的距离这4个因素对宅基地赔偿额有显著的影响,而建筑类型、建筑年份和家庭成员中是否有村干部或党员对宅基地赔偿额没有显著或稳定的影响。笔者同时发现,宅基地拆迁赔偿额在全国有非常显著的地域差异,而河北省三河市燕郊镇的宅基地拆迁赔偿以及我国其他地区的实践,展示了较为成功的在土地农转用过程中引入用地者与土地所有者的谈判和市场机制的案例,为未来征地拆迁制度的变革提供了方向。     

土地垄断供给、纵向市场关系与房地产价格——兼论基于价值链分析的房地产市场竞争促进政策

地价与房价之间并不仅仅是一种成本联系.土地市场与房地产产品市场之间还存在着纵向市场关系,在两个市场均为寡头垄断的情况下,则会存在着双重垄断加成的现象.与上下游产业之间的市场交易关系相比,垂直一体化和垂直约束同样是组织住房生产的有效方式,并有助于增加消费者剩余.此外,促进房地产开发价值链上各环节的竞争,消除其垄断行为,将是降低房价和增进居民福利的重要选择.     

基于GIS的地价空间分布规律研究--以北京市住宅地价为例

利用北京市1998—2003年的普通住宅出让地价资料,采用统计分析和GIS空间分析相结合的方法,得到北京市普通住宅出让地价的系列空间分布图,在此基础之上揭示北京市住宅地价空间分布规律及其成因。分析结果表明:地价的分布在空间上既有连续性,也存在变异性。文章提出了地价梯度和地价指向,作为表征地价空间变化的两项指标,也存在明显的空间差异。     

Urban Structure and Environmental Externalities

The objective of this paper is to analyze policy design for air pollution management in the spatial context of urban development. We base our analysis on the paper of Ogawa and Fujita (Reg Sci Urban Econ 12:161–196, 1982), which offers a proper theoretical framework of non-monocentric urban land use using static microeconomic theory where the city structure is endogenous. First, we show that when households internalize industrial pollution in their residential location choice, spatialization within the city is reinforced. This impacts directly the emissions of greenhouse gases from commuting. Then, we analyze policy instruments in order to achieve optimal land use pattern when the policy maker has to manage both industrial and commuting related polluting emissions, that interact through the land market.     

我国城市工业地价影响因素及力度的计量分析

地价是经济学中的重要课题,它是都市的语言,是都市的环境与功能的综合值。用计量经济学的方法,分供求二方取人口、经济、区位、政府行为等四大板块中的基本要素对我国工业地价的相关性与影响力度进行探讨。从相关性看：城市设施因素与工业地价相关性较弱;大区位因素与工业地价相关性较强。房产税额、耕地占用税额、本年购置的土地面积等政府行为因素与工业地价相关性较强;余者与工业地价相关性较弱。从影响力度看：工业地价对经济、政府行为、区位因素的弹性系数总体呈现一种矛盾、混乱的特征,佐证了中国工业地价违背客观规律性的现象。剔除其混乱因素,仍可看出大区位因素对工业地价影响的力度要大于经济因素,土地类税额对工业地价影响的力度微乎其微;反映了地方政府在工业化过程中对土地的掠夺性开发利用。     

The estimation of the impact of residential zoning on land values

Assuming that residential zoning places an upper limit on the ratio of capital to land, an appropriate econometric technique is suggested to estimate the effect of zoning on land välues.     

Commercial-to-residential land-use conversion and residential recentralization in large cities

I examine the long-term impact of a real estate bubble on the land-use patterns of Tokyo and Osaka from 1980 to 2003 and find that fluctuations in land prices reflected changing demand for commercial land relative to that for residential land, which, in turn, affected housing supply and residential location choices. During the real estate bubble, land developers favored commercial over residential development because the perceived productive value of commercial land increased sharply. Thus, daytime population in central cities increased and residential population fell. During the economic downturn, however, the demand for commercial space fell, houses were favored by land developers and residents were recentralized. My causal estimates show that the commercial-to-residential land-use conversion can explain approximately 9% to 16% of the housing starts after the bubble burst in Tokyo and Osaka, and their populations would have been reduced by 2% to 3% otherwise. The effect is more prominent in their central business districts. My findings provide a novel explanation for the recent changes in central neighbourhoods.     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

Intraday hedging with financial options: the case of electricity

As market intermediaries, electricity suppliers purchase electricity from the wholesale market or self-generate to deliver their customers. However, electricity suppliers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any hour of the day until they actually turn switches on. While demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets, suppliers generally rely on storage to manage it. Singularly, electricity suppliers are exposed to joint volumetric and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical attributes of electricity. In the literature on electricity markets, few articles compare the efficiency of forward contracts, options and physical assets (i.e. power plants) within intraday hourly hedging portfolios, whereas electricity markets are precisely hourly markets. We analyse portfolios made of forwards, options and/or power plants for specific hourly clusters (9 am, 12 pm, 18 pm, 9 pm) based on electricity market data from 2013 to 2015 from the integrated German–Austrian spot market. Through a VaR model, we prove that intraday hedging with forwards is structurally inefficient compared to financial options and physical assets, no matter the cluster hour. Moreover, our results demonstrate the contribution of ‘out of the money’ options for all hours within volatile spot markets.     

On microfoundations of the city

This paper considers the spatial structure of a city subject to final demand and vertical linkages. Individuals consume differentiated goods (or services) and firms purchase differentiated inputs (or services) in product (or service) markets where firms compete under monopolistic competition. Workers rent their residential lots in an urban land market and contribute to the production of differentiated goods and inputs. We show that firms and workers co-agglomerate and endogenously form a city. We characterize and discuss the spatial distribution of firms and consumers in such cities on one- and two-dimensional spaces. We show that final demand and vertical linkages raise the urban density and reduce the city spread.     

农村居民点整理潜力内涵与评价指标体系

定量地反映和衡量通过农村居民点整理挖掘其利用上潜力的大小,可以为土地整理专项规划、农村居民点整理项目设计提供科学依据。文章在分析农村居民点整理潜力内涵及其来源的基础上,将其分为自然和现实转化两类潜力。其中自然潜力评价指标从农村居民点整理扩展可利用空间、改善农村生存条件两方面选取,现实转化潜力评价指标则从区位、社会经济发展状况、农村建房周期、后备资源状况等方面选取。同时在界定各指标内涵的基础上采用适宜的方法实现了指标的定量化。     

Multivariate Analysis of the Condition of the Property Development Sector: Selected Local Real Estate Markets in the European Union

The aim of the study is to serve as a multidimensional analysis of relationships between the economic and financial standing of property developers and the residential property market situation. The discussion concerns the property development market situation in the context of the construction market situation, with particular emphasis on residential housing investment in selected EU countries. Property development companies whose activities focused on residential housing were assessed with respect to performance in the selected market on the stock exchange. Individual companies were classified using economic and financial indices. Despite the ongoing economic downturn in real estate markets, the results for these companies did not indicate poor performance on the stock exchange. In the study, a synthetic measure of development was used in linear ordering.     

行政规划促进居民职住平衡作用研究——基于Alonso城市空间结构模型

文章基于Alonso的城市空间结构理论模型,对城市化高速发展背景下居民"职住分离"现象进行了分析和讨论。国内外的经验显示,许多新城的现行分布与初始规划大相径庭,行政的干预反而加长了城市内部的通勤距离。在报告Alonso理想状态理论框架的基础上,通过设置新的假设、建立分析模型,并结合现实情况,对就职于商务中心的居民居住分布和商务中心外围职住分布进行了研究,前一种情况"职住分离"是有效的市场均衡无需改善,后一种情况有效的市场会使得居住分布接近"职住平衡"。这两个结果说明"职住分离"和"职住平衡"的有效性是相对的,并无绝对的优劣之分,重要的是,市场本身可以实现最佳的居住分布结果,行政权力对于职住分布的强行干预,反而会扭曲市场,而不是像以往讨论的那样,能够带来正面影响,行政规划实现"职住平衡"这种单一思维定势存在误区。     

基于总量控制与分层监管的农村宅基地用地标准研究

为了有效地控制宅基地的无序扩张,提出了建立宅基地用地标准的新方法,其核心是＂总量控制,分层监管＂,即：以人均宅基地面积为基数,确定村庄宅基地总面积控制性指标和农户宅基地面积指导性指标,控制性指标由地方政府部门监管,指导性指标由村集体内部参考使用。与现行标准相比,新的标准形成了两级监督机制,降低了监督成本,实现了管制和自治的结合,有利于提高土地配置效率,实现了权利公平,避免管理混乱问题。     

农村宅基地流转的模式与路径研究

通过横向比较分析后认为：我国农村宅基地流转存在管理制度缺陷、村庄规划滞后、基层监管欠缺等问题。在对我国农村宅基地流转进行实证调研后,总结出我国农村宅基地流转模式主要有村集体经济组织内部转让、外部转让、农户自由转让、地方政府主导转让等几种类型,在此基础上提出推动农村宅基地流转的对策建议。