EFFECTS OF PAST AUSTRALIAN WHEAT PRICE POLICIES ON KEY INDUSTRY VARIABLES

Evidence is provided on the extent to which wheat price policies operating over the period 1953-54 to 1983-84 achieved objectives related to the levels and stability of key industry variables. The general findings are that the levels of achievement have been modest and that trade-offs have been involved. This evidence is supplementary to the evidence already available from efficiency-based studies.     

THE STABILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY STABILIZATION SCHEME

The wheat stabilisation scheme has been operating for almost two decades. In this article quantitative estimates are made of the effects of the scheme upon the stability of prices and incomes and the distribution of income over the period 1948-49 to 1965-66.     

A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry. These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market. In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.     

A NOTE ON VICTORIAN WHEAT YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS

An analysis of wheat yield series from ten localities in Victoria was undertaken to investigate for independence of observations and to test for normality of the distributions. The conclusion was reached that Victorian wheat yield series are composed of random observations and form frequency distributions which display slight negative skewness. The situation may be different for other crops or for wheat in other areas.     

THE EFFECTS OF FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES ON AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

The implication of price stabilisation under a volatile exchange rate is an increasingly volatile price denominated in a foreign currency. Time series analysis is used to model the relationship between exports, prices and AWC stocks. This model is used to assess the distribution of the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices denominated in local and foreign currencies. It is found that the AWC has significantly reduced the impact of exchange rate shocks on domestic prices.     

QUALITY PREMIUMS FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT IN THE GROWING ASIAN MARKETS

An hedonic price function is applied to Australia's wheat exports to the growing Asian markets. The values for the quality characteristics in the wheat markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand are estimated. The data base for the study is from the Australian Wheat Board shipments over the period 1984 to 1991. The sample is divided into two separate time periods to test the consistency in demand for export wheat and to trace recent trends in quality premiums. The implications of the results for wheat marketing and trade are explored.     

A NOTE ON THE PIG CYCLE IN AUSTRALIA

Spectral analysis is used to test hypotheses relating to regular four-year cycles in the Australian pig industry. The data point to the existence of annual cycles in production, slaughterings and prices, but four-year cycles are only evident in pig prices. Relationships between these series are also examined by cross-spectral analysis     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF THE NEW CAP CEREALS REGIME: A NOTE

This note considers the impact on the cereals sector of the new arable regime agreed as part of the CAP reforms in May 1992. Starting from the farm-level decision of whether or not to participate in the voluntary set aside scheme, an industry-level supply curve is derived allowing examination of the potential welfare effects of the new policy. The discussion focuses on the cereals market.     

A NOTE ON DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS OF MAIZE AND WHEAT PRODUCTION RESPONSE: THE KENYAN CASE*

In this note the supply responses in maize and wheat production are estimated from distributed lag models. The Nerlove model and the Fisher distributed lag model fit Kenyan data but more complicated models, like the polynomial lag model, do not. The calculated price elasticities suggest that Kenyan large-scale farmers are highly responsive to price changes. Some policy implications are drawn from the analysis.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE OF AUSTRALIAN WHEAT GROWERS

Alternative specifications of models of the supply response of Australian wheat growers and their economic implications are considered in terms of the existence and nature of production lags, and the choice between expected prices and expected gross returns as the preferred explanator of producers' response to changing economic conditions. The analysis indicates that there are lags which are due primarily to the difficulties and costs of rapid adjustment rather than to the time required to revise expectations. The statistical results were similar for the alternative specifications of gross margins and prices as the economic decision variables. However, the price elasticities derived using the gross margins specification were about a third of those using the prices specification. The gross margins specification yielded additional information in the form of yield and input cost elasticities.     

长江经济带粮食生产时空分异及空间效应

目的 研究长江经济带粮食生产的时空分异规律,探究影响长江经济带粮食生产的主导因素,以及各影响因素的真实空间交互效应,以期为新时期长江经济带粮食生产策略的制定提供科学依据。方法 文章基于2000—2018年长江经济带市级面板数据,运用标准差椭圆、空间自相关分析、空间面板数据模型等方法,对长江经济带粮食生产时空分异特征和影响因素的空间效应进行分析。结果 （1）长江经济带粮食产量呈波动增加的态势,对全国粮食产量的贡献率不断下降,各省份粮食生产状况差异较大;（2）粮食高产市域数量增加,粮食生产重心向东北偏移,生产空间分布呈西南—东北趋势,整体呈收缩集聚态势;（3）长江经济带粮食生产存在显著的正的空间溢出效应,从直接效应来看,土地规模、化肥投入、农业机械化水平和农业结构调整对当地粮食生产具有显著的促进作用,劳动力规模和人均GDP水平对当地粮食生产具有显著的负向影响,非农就业机会和非农产业地位对当地粮食生产的影响不显著;从间接效应来看,土地规模、劳动力规模和人均GDP水平具有溢出效应,对相邻地区粮食生产起到显著的促进作用,其他因素的溢出效应不显著。结论 长江经济带粮食生产空间集聚日趋明显,要继续加强高产集聚区域农田基础设施建设,加大政策扶持力度,不断提高高产集聚区域的粮食综合生产能力,也要适当引导其他区域积极发展粮食生产,防止“去粮化”现象发生。同时,各区域要发挥粮食生产的比较优势,实现资源要素互补,并基于市场机制来调节长江经济带粮食供给与需求,以实现区域内粮食供需均衡。     

RELATIVE VARIABILITY IN WHEAT YIELDS ACROSS COUNTRIES AND OVER TIME

Wheat yield variability is analysed in light of recent concern that rapid technological change has caused increased instability in world cereal production. The coefficient of variation of wheat yields is estimated for 57 countries from detrended data for various periods between 1951 and 1986. The coefficient of variation in wheat yields is shown to be determined by country size, moisture regime and temperature. Technological variables, such as level of adoption of high-yielding varieties and fertiliser dose, had no effect on differences in yield variability across countries. Analysis of yield variability for the same set of countries for three periods from 1951 to 1986 shows a general decline in yield variability since 1975 in developing countries. Analysis of wheat yield variability in India at the state and district levels confirms the analysis of country level data. The coefficient of variability of wheat yields in India in the period 1976-85 has fallen to less than half the level in the 1950s and this decline is statistically significant.     

A NOTE CONCERNING THE EFFECT OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION ON DEMAND

This note attempts to develop a method of measuring the impact of changes in income distribution on future demand, an important consideration when a country is experiencing a rapid rise in per capita income. Cross-sectional analysis utilising the Lorenz coefficient focuses on the impact of income inequality on the demand for mutton in urban Iran. It is hypothesised that long-term projections of demand using traditional methodology will over-estimate future consumption as a result of failure to consider deterioration in income distribution. The hypothesis is substantiated for this example. It is concluded that current income distribution and the alterations in income inequality which may accompany increased per capita income must be taken into account when estimating changes in aggregate future demand.     

交通因素对黄土丘陵沟壑区空心村变迁的影响分析

[目的]空心村的形成和发展受到众多因素的影响,包括经济因素、自然因素、社会因素、户籍和社保制度,以及管理和规划因素等。由于我国的自然地理和区域发展差异悬殊,不同地形区空心村发展的主要影响因素各不相同。文章探究在复杂地形条件下,交通因素对丘陵沟壑区空心村的产生和发展所产生的影响。[方法]以陕西省澄城县为例,通过实地调查、走访农户、搜集资料等方法,利用交通便利指数、交通距离指数等开展分析,综合考虑了道路崎岖程度、道路质量状况以及经济发展水平等,对研究区的农村空心化现象进行了研究。[结果]崎岖的道路极大地增加了居民的出行成本和时间,不利于农村的基础设施建设和发展;在当前的社会经济条件下,黄土丘陵沟壑区农村的交通便利程度与村庄空心化程度呈现一定的负相关性,即交通条件越好,村庄的空心化程度越低。[结论]在黄土丘陵沟壑区开展空心村整治工程时,可以优先考虑交通条件较差、相对偏远的地区。     

A NOTE ON OFF-FARM INCOME OF FARM FAMILIES IN AUSTRALIA*

Past studies of the farm sector have concentrated on the use of farm based resources in the farm context alone. Changes in the economic environment have widened the opportunities available to these resources and have thus tended to make this narrow definition of the farm firm less relevant. Some recognition of this situation has emerged in more recent studies. The aim of this note is to collate and examine the degree to which farm labour resources are employed in off-farm activities in Australia. The main conclusion drawn from the evidence available is that, while in aggregate part-time farming is a fairly minor activity, in some sectors it is increasing in importance and constitutes a considerable outlet for farm based labour resources.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RESEARCH INTO TRADED GOODS: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN WOOL

The final incidence of benefits and costs of wool industry research and development (R&D) undertaken in Australia depends greatly on the nature of the R&D and the way it is funded. Using preferred parameter values, the Australian share of benefits from farm-level R&D is 58 per cent (falling to 40 per cent if there is 50 per cent adoption of the new technology by producers overseas); the Australian shares of benefits from wool-processing R&D ere 24 per cent (topmaking) and 27 per cent (textile-processing). Under current funding arrangements, an Australian wool tax provides about one-eighth of total R&D funds, a matching government grant provides another one-eighth, and other public sector funds make up the remaining three-quarters. Under these arrangements, the final incidence of the costs is 95 per cent on Australians (mostly taxpayers at large), and the wool industry bears only 12.5 per cent of the costs of its R&D. One implication is that a wool tax alone is a more equitable and efficient means of financing wool-industry R&D than the current arrangements.