Time-Varying Mortgage Prepayment Penalties

Recent empirical findings reveal that prepayment decisions of commercial property owners are slower than predicted by the pure options-pricing model (OPM). Borrower decisions appearing slow, however, may be quite rational when prepayment penalties of a time-varying nature are incorporated into the OPM. This article uses a competing risks OPM, adjusted for each of four different categories of prepayment penalties, to analyze borrower prepayment behavior. We find the value of delaying prepayment is often higher for mortgages with declining-rate penalties than for mortgages with static-rate penalties, frequently requiring a substantially higher interest rate spread to trigger a refinance. Multifamily loan prepayment records reveal the type of prepayment pattern that the adjusted OPM indicate should occur, reducing the gap between empirical findings and theoretical predictions. The results have implications for the specification of regressions fit to historical data, for the pricing of newly originated commercial mortgages, and for pricing in the single-family market where prepayment penalties are reemerging.     

Mortgage Pricing Implications of Prepayment: Separating Pecuniary and Non-pecuniary Prepayment

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - In the study of mortgage loan pricing, prepayment and default hazards are considered. While default results in loss of initial capital, prepayment...     

Differential Impacts of Structural and Cyclical Unemployment on Mortgage Default and Prepayment

The Great Recession (the fourth quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2009) has been characterized by high rates of foreclosures and unemployment. Using a sample of community reinvestment loans, we examine the impact of structural unemployment and cyclical unemployment on mortgage terminations (default and prepayment). We find that mortgage default and prepayment are more sensitive to changes in the structural component of the local unemployment rate than in the cyclical component. In addition, depending on whether structural unemployment rates are high or low, borrowers and lenders react differently to the incentives to terminate a loan.     

A Prepayment Model for the Japanese Mortgage Loan Market: Prepayment-Type-Specific Parametric Model Approach

This paper proposes a framework for construction of a prepayment model suitedto the Japanese mortgage loan market and assesses the validity of thisframework based on an empirical analysis using data from Japan. In thisframework, a model is constructed for each of three prepayment types, namely,`full prepayment', `partial prepayment', and `subrogation', using a parametricproportional hazards model, which was also employed by Schwartz and Torous(1989). Combining these three types of models allows one to take into accountthe effects of partial prepayments, which are frequently used in the Japanesemortgage market, and to simultaneously construct a model for both prepaymentand default. Time-dependent (path-dependent) covariates are introduced intothe model, which are estimated by the maximum likelihood method based on thefull likelihood that takes into account the time-dependence of the covariates.Results of the empirical analysis indicate that the hazard functions differsubstantially depending on the prepayment type. In addition, results indicatethat the fit of the model can be improved by the distinction of prepaymenttypes and the introduction of the market interest rates as path-dependentcovariates.     

Housing-Price Cycles and Prepayment Rates of U.S. Mortgage Pools

Empirical mortgage prepayment models generally have trouble explaining differences in mortgage-prepayment speeds among pools with similar interest rates on the underlying mortgages. In this article, we model some of the sources of termination heterogeneity across mortgage pools, particularly the role of regional variations in housing prices in generating atypical prepayment speeds. Using a sample of Freddie Mac mortgage pools from 1991 to 1998, we compare two classes of empirical models: a rational option-pricing model using a backward-solving pricing algorithm and an empirical hazard model. In both empirical estimation strategies, we find evidence that differences in house-price dynamics across regions are an important source of between-pool heterogeneity. This finding is then shown to be robust to alternative ways of parameterizing pool heterogeneity in mortgage termination models.     

The Value of Equitable Redemption in Commercial Mortgage Contracting

Equitable redemption is a feature of all common law mortgages that allows a borrower a chance to “redeem” the real estate in the event of default. What is puzzling is that equitable redemption is universally enforced in all mortgages, including commercial mortgages. The purpose of this study is to understand if there might be conditions under which the universal enforcement of equitable redemption could be an efficient legal doctrine. We build a model of asymmetric information where the cash flows from the investment are known to the borrower but not to the lender. We show that there exists a separating equilibrium where high-risk borrowers choose to include equitable redemption (and pay a higher interest rate) while low-risk borrowers choose not to (and pay a lower interest rate). We then show that there exist conditions under which a universal enforcement of equitable redemption results in a higher total surplus than this separating equilibrium.

住房抵押贷款提前偿付的影响因素及风险防范研究

从宏观角度看,在众多影响因素中,利率、利率预期是导致我国借款人提前偿付的主要动因。本文运用线性回归模型定量分析利率、利率预期影响提前还款风险的显著性,并通过对显著因素的判断来有针对性地防范提前还款风险进行管理。     

推行农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款的可行性研究

本文在实地调查、问卷分析、相关法律法规研究的基础上,对我国推行农地抵押贷款进行了可行性分析,提出我国推行农村土地经营权抵押贷款的必要性,并以国际上农地金融发展较为成熟的美国模式、德国模式、日本模式和我国一些地区的改革探索为借鉴,对我国推行土地经营权抵押贷款进行了信贷品种设计,提出了相关政策建议.     

浮动利率房贷提前还款的损失度量

住房抵押贷款是银行一项重要业务和资产.随着利率的波动和其他因素的影响,借款人有可能提前还款从而影响银行的收益.准确地度量提前还款给银行带来的损失有助于商业银行更好地管理这类经营风险.在具有均值回复特性的随机市场利率和服从纯跳跃过程的浮动住房贷款利率条件下,以最常见的每月等本金还款方式为基础,根据对利率的预测,使用求期望的办法估算出银行房贷总收益的预期值,然后将该预期值折现到提前还款发生时刻,从而构造出借款人在合同期间提前偿还房贷给银行造成的利息损失度量模型.     

使用权抵押贷款融资模式的研究——以洪大典当行的店面使用权抵押贷款为例

尽管当前我国中小企业具有巨大的融资需求,然而由于信息的不对称、不完全性以及缺乏可抵押资产,银行谨慎甚至不愿对中小企业放贷。典当行利用自己低成本搜集客户企业信息的优势,开发出商铺使用权抵押贷款业务来满足客户的融资需求。使用权抵押贷款（而不是传统的所有产权抵押）在我国当前金融环境下构成了对商业银行信贷的有益补充。本文依据变现难易程度对使用权抵押贷款进行分类,给出了一个简单的使用权抵押贷款利率定价公式,并分析了贷款风险及其控制,最后还探讨了使用权抵押贷款推广问题。     

国外住房抵押贷款担保制度的分析和借鉴

建立完善的住房抵押贷款担保体系,可以有效防范住房贷款中存在的金融风险,同时其信用提高功能可以有效促进我国中低收入家庭购房,有利于改善我国中低收入家庭的住房条件。目前我国的房贷担保机构的体制尚不完善,本文在介绍和分析国外发达国家的担保体系运作模式的基础上,对我国住房抵押贷款担保体系发展模式提出若干建议。     

次贷危机加剧和救市政策的有效性分析

本文从货币流通速度下降和资产负债表恶化来解释美国次贷危机不断加剧的原因。同时本文也指出次贷危机下存在"流动性陷阱"和"投资陷阱",在此基础上,分析了美国救市政策的有效性。笔者认为目前财政政策是有效的,尤其是政府直接增加财政支出更为有效。     

Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis

We apply the powerful, flexible, and computationally efficient nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to analyze real estate mortgage data. CART is particularly appropriate for our data set because of its strengths in dealing with large data sets, high dimensionality, mixed data types, missing data, different relationships between variables in different parts of the measurement space, and outliers. Moreover, CART is intuitive and easy to interpret and implement. We discuss the pros and cons of CART in relation to traditional methods such as linear logistic regression, nonparametric additive logistic regression, discriminant analysis, partial least squares classification, and neural networks, with particular emphasis on real estate. We use CART to produce the first academic study of Israeli mortgage default data. We find that borrowers features, rather than mortgage contract features, are the strongest predictors of default if accepting icbadli borrowers is more costly than rejecting good ones. If the costs are equal, mortgage features are used as well. The higher (lower) the ratio of misclassification costs of bad risks versus good ones, the lower (higher) are the resulting misclassification rates of bad risks and the higher (lower) are the misclassification rates of good ones. This is consistent with real-world rejection of good risks in an attempt to avoid bad ones.     

住房抵押贷款提前偿付率的宏观影响因素分析

本文从宏观视角,运用多元线性回归模型和半参数模型等对我国个人住房抵押贷款组合提前偿付率的影响因素及其作用机制进行了实证研究。研究发现货币市场中长期贷款利率的提高,会增加借款人再融资成本,从而降低提前偿付率;资本市场作为借款人的收入来源之一与提前偿付率之间存在正相关关系;家庭人均净收入与提前偿付率的关系是非线性的;此外,与国外研究一致,房价和累计提前偿付额也会影响提前偿付率。     

Regulation of Subprime Mortgage Products: An Analysis of North Carolina's Predatory Lending Law

This paper estimates the effect of North Carolina's high-cost mortgage law on the subprime mortgage market in that state. The results indicate that creditors sharply restricted lending to higher risk consumers in North Carolina following passage of the law. Creditors did not restrict lending in neighboring states or to lower risk consumers in North Carolina. These results suggest that the restriction in North Carolina was due to rationing in response to higher costs imposed by the law. The findings of this study are of importance beyond North Carolina. Other states and municipalities have proposed or passed similar or more restrictive laws. These laws risk taking back some of the gains in credit availability that lower income and higher risk consumers gained in the 1990s.     

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default

One of the major developments in real estate finance during the 1990s was the emergence of a viable market for commercial mortgage backed securities. The growth in this market has spurred greater interest in empirical and theoretical research on commercial mortgage default and prepayment. We employ a competing risks model to examine the default and prepayment behavior of commercial loans underlying CMBS deals. We find that changes in the yield curve have a direct impact on the probability of mortgage termination. Furthermore, we do not find any statistical relationship between LTV and prepayment or default.     

Reverse Mortgage Loans: A Quantitative Analysis

Reverse mortgage loans (RMLs) allow older homeowners to borrow against housing wealth without moving. Despite rapid growth in this market, only 1.9% of eligible homeowners had RMLs in 2013. In this paper, we analyze reverse mortgages in a calibrated life‐cycle model of retirement. The average welfare gain from RMLs is $252 per homeowner, and $1,770 per RML borrower. Bequest motives, uncertainty about health and expenses, and loan costs account for low demand. According to the model, the Great Recession's impact differs across age, income, and wealth distributions, with a threefold increase in RML demand for lowest income and oldest households.     

Internal versus External Financing: An Optimal Contracting Approach

We study optimal financial contracting for centralized and decentralized firms. Under centralized contracting, headquarters raises funds on behalf of multiple projects. Under decentralized contracting, each project raises funds separately on the external capital market. The benefit of centralization is that headquarters can use excess liquidity from high cash‐flow projects to buy continuation rights for low cash‐flow projects. The cost is that headquarters may pool cash flows from several projects and self‐finance follow‐up investments without having to return to the capital market. Absent any capital market discipline, it is more difficult to force headquarters to make repayments, which tightens financing constraints ex ante. Cross‐sectionally, our model implies that conglomerates should have a lower average productivity than stand‐alone firms.     

农业保险市场违法违规行为的特征及其治理——基于法院判决及监管处罚案例的分析北大核心CSSCI

农业保险在我国财政支农体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。然而,近年来农业保险市场上的虚假投保、虚假理赔等违法违规行为却一直存在,成为农业保险高质量发展中的顽疾。本文根据2012年以来各地法院的判决和保险监管机构行政处罚决定书所公开披露的信息和数据,从发展趋势、参与主体、产生事由、行为后果等角度分析了农业保险市场违法违规行为的特征,在此基础上从业务特性、运作规则、监管体系等方面探寻了违法违规行为产生的原因,最后提出从优化补贴方式、健全运作规则、加强监管等方面进行系统性治理。     

A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach

A new prepayment model is developed, which improves the modeling of the borrowers decision process by incorporating an occupation-time derivative in the valuation framework of a fixed-rate mortgage. This option-theoretic mortgage valuation model is based on stochastic house-price and interest-rate models, and requires a particularly subtle technique to incorporate a new type of occupation-time derivative, where the barrier (which activates the derivative) is in the value process and not the underlying process (as it is in standard occupation-time derivatives). This new model simulates a delay in prepayment by the borrower (beyond the time simple ruthless prepayment dictates), thus increasing the value of the mortgage to the lender, compared to the value gained using more basic models. This allows for a more advanced borrower decision process, where a rational exercise structure is retained in a modified form. Empirical evidence supports this theory, which should be beneficial for accurate mortgage-backed security pricing. The results in this paper explore thoroughly the effect on the mortgage value of a delay in prepayment by the borrower on the embedded options held and on the insurance component.