Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?

The Lucas Paradox observes that capital flows predominantly to relatively rich countries, contradicting the neoclassical prediction that it should flow to poorer capital-scarce countries. In an influential study, Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan, and Volosovych (AKV) argue that cross-country variation in institutional quality can fully explain the Paradox, contending that if institutional quality is included in regression models explaining international capital inflows, a country’s level of economic development is no longer statistically significant. We replicate AKV’s results using their cross-sectional IFS capital flow data. Motivated by the importance of conducting inference in statistically adequate models, we focus on misspecification testing of alternative functional forms of their empirical model of capital flows. We show that their resolution of the Paradox relies on inference in a misspecified model. In models that do not fail basic misspecification tests, even though institutional quality is a significant determinant of capital inflows, a country’s level of economic development also remains a significant predictor. The same conclusions are reached using an extended dataset covering more recent IFS international capital flow data, first-differenced capital stock data and additional controls.     

Dynamite in the EKC tunnel? Inconsistencies in resource stock analysis under the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Recent studies incorporating consumption into the relationship between GDP and conservation increasingly reveal that economic prosperity does not lead to improvements in environmental quality, even in cases where rich countries may appear to protect a greater proportion of their domestic resources. This study reinforces those findings for forest and species conservation across two groups of countries. Additionally, through explicit comparison with two previous EKC studies, I enable an illustration of precisely how EKC results are affected by the incorporation of consumption and highlight persistent problems with EKC analyses. Despite general linear modeling results showing that wealthy countries drive deforestation in poorer countries through the import of forest resources, EKC analyses can still indicate improvements in conservation for wealthier countries. Such contradictions suggest that recent methodological improvements to the EKC cannot guarantee the validity of evidence from EKC analyses. Poor quality of resource stocks data, the restrictive time scales that can be examined with those data, and the lack of consistent results across different groups of countries all speak to continued inadequacies of the EKC hypothesis and the need to focus on approaches that address actual behavior patterns exhibited by different income groups.     

An extension of the Tiebout hypothesis of voting with one’s feet: the Medicaid magnet hypothesis

This study empirically extends the Tiebout hypothesis of ‘voting with one’s feet’ in two ways. First, it provides updated estimates using net migration data for the period 2000–2008. Second, in addition to investigating variables reflecting public education outlays, property taxation and income taxation, it investigates whether migrants are attracted to states with higher Medicaid benefits per recipient. The latter hypothesis is referred to as the ‘Medicaid magnet hypothesis’. The analysis includes three economic variables, three quality of life variables and three Tiebout-type factors in addition to Medicaid benefits. Results indicate that consumer voters were attracted to states with higher per pupil public school spending, lower property and income tax rates, and that certain consumer-voters may be attracted to states that offer higher levels of Medicaid benefits.     

Are the choices of people stochastically rational? A stochastic test of the number of revealed preference violations

Revealed preference tests are frequently used to check data on the behavior of agents for consistency with economic theory. Unfortunately these tests lack a stochastic element and thus one violation of revealed preference causes a rejection of the behavior being tested. To remedy this lack of a stochastic element in revealed preference analysis, we suggest a general, simple, and intuitive statistical procedure to test whether the observed number of violations is more consistent with a pre-specified type of non-degenerate behavior than with rational behavior. We illustrate this general procedure with an example using uniform random behavior that allows researchers to test whether the actual number of violations of revealed preference is more consistent with uniform random behavior than rational behavior. This statistical test takes advantage of the fact that nonparametric revealed preference tests involve known prices and expenditures. Our illustrative example is accompanied by some Monte Carlo exercises showing that the uniform test performs very well. We implement our test using datasets from two well-known economic experiments. One is a dataset on altruistic choices from Andreoni and Miller (Econometrica 70:737–753, 2002). The second is a dataset on the choices made by subjects who act within a token economy from Battalio et al. (West Econ J 11:411–428, 1973) and Cox (Econ J 107:1054–1078, 1997). We find that for a majority of subjects in one altruistic behavior sub-experiment uniform random behavior can be rejected in favor of rational behavior at the 10 % level of significance. For all but one subject, living in the token economy, uniform random behavior cannot be rejected. For that one subject in the token experiment uniform random behavior is rejected in favor of perverse economic behavior.     

The structural asymmetry of the international gold standard in Hawtrey’s works

Ralph G. Hawtrey was the British Treasury’s only economist during the interwar period. He developed a monetary theory of the cycle by which the inherent instability of credit under the gold standard caused fluctuations in output, incomes, and prices. Hawtrey was a monetary specialist who influenced the inner process of policymaking through his capacity as advisor to Blackett, Niemeyer, and Norman. An extensive analysis of his monetary theory in an open economy provides insight into why in the 1920s he advocated the general adoption of the gold exchange standard coupled with cooperation among central banks.     

All Myth and Ceremony? Examining the Causes and Logic of the Mission Shift in Microfinance from Microenterprise Credit to Financial Inclusion

This contribution assesses the shift in the mission of microfinance from providing small loans for entrepreneurship to the broader agenda of financial inclusion. Three leading organisations' publications inform a discourse analysis, which allows the strategic shift to be analysed using two theoretical frames from organisational sociology: instrumental rationalism and sociological institutionalism. The proclaimed shift in strategy is found to consist less of rational innovation towards the aim of poverty alleviation than of “myth and ceremony” for the sake of organisational self-preservation.     

Optimal taxation in the Uzawa–Lucas model with externality in human capital

In this paper we study the optimal policy in the Uzawa–Lucas model with externality in human capital when agents value both consumption and leisure. We find that the government pursuing the first best can achieve its goal by a subsidy which depends on foregone earnings while studying and which is financed through a lump sum tax. Anyway, the optimal policy, that should be designed to provide incentives for agents to devote more time to schooling and cut both on leisure and working, is not unique. There exists an infinite number of combinations of consumption, capital income, labor income and lump sum taxes that can decentralize the first best.     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

A closed-form solution to the transitional dynamics of the Lucas–Uzawa model

This paper studies how the intertemporal allocation determines the transitional dynamics to a given steady state and the long-term growth of an economy. Our main contribution consists in determining the solutions path for all the variables of the model, under fairly general conditions on σ and β.     

On the existence and uniqueness of solution to the Lucas–Uzawa model

In this paper we define the concept of admissible solution and then provide closed-form solutions for all variables of the model along the transitional dynamics path. We present numerical simulations and compare our results with those obtained through the methods developed by Boucekkine and Ruiz-Tamarit and, Barro and Sala-I-Martin.     

Population dynamics and utilitarian criteria in the Lucas–Uzawa Model

This paper introduces population growth in the Uzawa–Lucas model, analyzing the implications of the choice of the welfare criterion on the model's outcome. Traditional growth theory assumes population growth to be exponential, but this is not a realistic assumption (see Brida and Accinelli, 2007). We model exogenous population change by a generic function of population size. We show that a unique non-trivial equilibrium exists and the economy converges towards it along a saddle path, independently of population dynamics. What is affected by the type of population dynamics is the dimension of the stable manifold, which can be one or two, and when the equilibrium is reached, which can happen in finite time or asymptotically. Moreover, we show that the choice of the utilitarian criterion will be irrelevant on the equilibrium of the model, if the steady state growth rate of population is null, as in the case of logistic population growth. Then, we show that a closed-form solution for the transitional dynamics of the economy (both in the case population dynamics is deterministic and stochastic) can be found for a certain parameter restriction.     

Is nuclear energy clean? Revisit of Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in OECD countries

A transition towards the adoption of clean energy sources in electricity generation is essential to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. The present study aims to examine the EKC hypothesis by taking into account nuclear energy in 18 OECD countries for the period 1995–2015. This study employs panel dynamic Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) to investigate the effects of electricity production from nuclear source, electricity production from non-renewables and trade openness on CO₂ emissions. The empirical findings suggest that EKC hypothesis is valid in OECD countries where nuclear energy plays a pivotal role in protecting the environment. On the contrary, non-renewable energy sources tend to increase CO₂ emissions. Our results support the notion that electricity generated by nuclear source leads to lower CO₂ emissions without retarding the long run growth in OECD countries. The findings also provide important policy insights and recommendations not only for OECD countries, but also for developing countries in designing appropriate energy and economic policies.     

An empirical test of the regional innovation paradox: can smart specialisation overcome the paradox in Central and Eastern Europe?

The regional innovation paradox is the greater need of lagging regions to invest in innovation and their relatively lower capacity to absorb funding compared to more advanced regions. Using data on regional public spending, industry composition and economic performance, we test empirically whether there is a differential impact of European funding on regional economic growth between Eastern and Western European regions. We conclude that the paradox is proven and consider the extent to which smart specialisation strategies may help to improve the quality of governance of regional innovation systems.     

Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test

Using panel data, this article investigates the long-run relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates for selected ASEAN countries by utilizing quarterly data from 1973:Q1 to 2013:Q4. The modelling implementation starts with the determination of the stationarity condition of the variables which are found to be integrated of order one. Using Maddala and Wu’s (1999) panel cointegration test, the article finds evidence of cointegration among the variables. The fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) are then used to estimate the long-run relationship between the variables, followed by applying Toda–Yamamoto causality test. The findings exhibit bidirectional causality between real oil prices and real exchange rates in the long run, where it is highly significant.     

Trapped in the Logic of the Modern State System? European Integration in the Wake of the Financial Crisis

In the wake of the Single European Act of the mid-1980s and a series of follow-on initiatives aimed at fostering greater integration in Europe, a number of commentators began describing Europe as a truly novel political-territorial arrangement. By the middle of the 1990s, however, the adoption of a common currency came to dominate the European integration agenda. The embrace of monetary union reflected a view of European integration that was firmly embedded in the logic of the modern territorial state system. That logic led many commentators to view the success or failure of integration in terms of the degree to which powers were being transferred from state governmental and economic institutions to the central decision-making bodies of the European Union. Such an approach cast the EU as a super-state rather than as a new type of political-institutional entity. As a result, the integration project was less subversive of the state system than it might otherwise have been – bolstering the view of the European Union as a distant bureaucracy not adequately attuned to the needs of everyday Europeans and fueling nationalist sentiments: a social force with deep roots in the modernist territorial order. Moving the European integration process forward will likely require embracing conceptions of progress that are less tethered to modernist territorial ideas and assumptions.     

Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.     

Agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern US: do weather and climate variability matter?

Governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather. The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions. In the US, agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies. The payments, and their distribution, are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events, usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as some economic variables, on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation.     

Stochastic accumulation of human capital and welfare in the Uzawa–Lucas model: an analytical characterization

Stochastic growth models are often solved numerically, because they are not tractable in general. However, recent several studies find the closed-form solution to the stochastic Uzawa–Lucas model in which technological progress or population dynamics follow a Brownian motion process with one or two parameter restriction(s). However, they assume that the return on the accumulation of human capital is deterministic, which is inconsistent with empirical evidence. Therefore, I develop the Uzawa–Lucas model in which the accumulation of human capital follows a mixture of a Brownian motion process and many Poisson jump processes, and obtain the closed-form solution. Moreover, I use it to examine the nexus between human capital uncertainty, technological progress, expected growth rate of human capital, and welfare.