中美农产品加工业产业内贸易影响因素研究

分析了中美农产品加工业贸易状况,并对两国农产品加工业产业内贸易的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明,近年来中美农产品加工业贸易快速发展;而中美贸易不平衡对两国农产品加工业产业内贸易起到了显著的抑制作用,同时中美两国人均GDP差异、行业开放程度则较强地促进了两国农产品加工业产业内贸易的发展。基于此,中国应侧重提升中美农产品加工业产业内贸易水平,实施产业间贸易和产业内贸易双轮驱动战略。     

Intra-Industry specialization: A cross-country analysis

This paper tests various hypotheses as to the determinants of intra-industry trade in thirty-eight developed and developing countries exporting manufactured goods. The econometric estimates for the entire group of countries show that the extent of intra-industry trade increases with the level of economic development (GNP per head), the size of domestic markets (GNP), and the openness of national economies. The existence of trading partners with common borders and geographical proximity further contributes to intra-industry trade.These hypotheses have also been confirmed for the developing country group. And while similarities in regard to trade orientation and the existence of border trade, as well as intercorrelation between the gross national product and per capita GNP, have reduced the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for these variables for the developed country group, this equation also has a high explanatory power.     

中欧服务业产业内贸易实证研究

由服务贸易的比较优势和产业内贸易研究概况,引出对中欧服务业产业内贸易的实证分析。基于2004～2009年中欧服务贸易数据测算出GL指数和MIIT指数,发现了各服务部门产业内贸易发展的不同态势。选取人均GDP、服务贸易开放程度和对外贸易不平衡程度作为自变量,即影响因素,但均未表现出与产业内贸易指数较强的相关性。     

Intra-tourism trade,income distribution and tourism endowment: an econometric investigation

Empirical investigation (Nowak et al., 2012) points out that vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) in Europe is the dominant type of intra-industry trade (IIT) in the tourism sector. This article is the first in tourism literature to test separately the determinants of vertically and horizontally differentiated services, using the most recent models in the theory of IIT. We examine bilateral trade among all trading partners of the sample of European countries, covering the period from 2000 to 2008. We show that differences in gross domestic product per capita and the income-distribution overlap, as well as cultural proximity, are the most significant driving forces behind VIIT for European countries. Geographic distance has a negative effect, whereas specific tourism endowments and relative size of the economies are less conclusive. These results confirm theory predictions and most of the empirical findings related to the pattern of VIIT for the manufacturing sector. As expected, we find that determinants of VIIT cannot explain horizontal intra-industry trade in tourism. We suggest two alternative methods of estimation: generalized least squares logistic function and the fractional logit estimator. We conclude that there are common factors explaining IIT in the manufacturing and tourism trades.     

Trade Liberalisation, Closer Economic Relations and Intra-Industry Specialisation

Abstract
Much of the growth in trade among the industrialised countries, and more recently among countries in the Asia-Pacific region, has taken the form of intra-industry trade (HT). Australia has historically had one of the lowest shares of IIT among OECD countries. This article examines how Australia's IIT has changed in the 1980s in response to the process of trade liberalisation and completion of the Closer Economic Relations (CER) pact with New Zealand. HT indexes are estimated for Australia's multilateral and trans-Tasman trade for 1981 and 1991 for 132 industries using data at the 3 and 4-digit level of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). The results point to a sharp increase in the share of IIT for both multilateral and trans-Tasman trade. Industries that have undergone the largest reductions in protection levels have increased their shares of IIT quite considerably. Increased intra-industry specialisation suggests that the short-run adjustment costs associated with trade liberalisation are likely to be lower. If IIT continues to grow in response to the ongoing process of internationalisation of the Australian economy, then Australia's prospects for expanding its share of world trade are good.     

Industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry trade: the case of EU new member states’ agri-food sector

The determinants of intra-industry agri-food trade are analysed to only a limited extent in the literature. This article investigates the industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member states of the EU and the other EU countries for the period 1999–2010 by applying a dynamic panel data model. Results suggest that IIT is mainly low vertical in nature, suggesting regional export of low-quality products to EU markets. Results also show that vertical product differentiation and FDI are positively related to VIIT, suggesting that quality growth and investments foster vertical intra-industry trade. As to productivity and factor endowments a negative relationship with VIIT was found, implying the labour abundant and similar nature of NMS agricultural sectors.     

中美汽车产业内贸易实证分析

产业内贸易水平越来越成为一国对外贸易竞争力及产业国际竞争力的一项重要指标。近年来,尽管中美汽车贸易发展迅速,但产业内贸易水平却较低。根据联合国商品贸易数据库数据,估算中美汽车产业内贸易指数,考察中美汽车产业内贸易的发展程度,剖析中美汽车产业内贸易的特征。研究得出:中国的产业内贸易总额超过产业间贸易,但产业内贸易水平仍低于美国;中美汽车产业内贸易产品的平均出口单价较低,平均进口单价较高,中国政府应引导汽车企业增大技术投入、引进国际领先技术、加强技术创新与产品研发。     

中国农产品产业内贸易影响因素的实证研究

本文首先运用Grubel-Lloyd计量法和GHM分解法对1997—2008年中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易水平分别加以测度,然后运用面板数据从国家层面对中国农产品产业内贸易影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明:人均收入差距、外商直接投资、农产品贸易不平衡、贸易伙伴的贸易开放度是影响中国农产品产业内贸易的主要国家层面因素;区域优惠贸易安排、地理距离、市场规模因素对中国农产品产业内贸易发展也有不容忽视的影响。     

Trade barriers,multinational involvement and intra-industry trade: panel data evidence from India

The article analyses the effects of trade barriers and multinationals on the intensity of intra-industry trade (IIT) in a panel of Indian manufacturing industries from 1988 to 1999. We find that the intensity of IIT increases with the reduction of trade barriers. This is expected as greater competition from imports leads individual plants in the domestic industry to specialize in the manufacturing of unique varieties. The analysis suggests that horizontal (market seeking) multinational activities in the domestic industries exert a negative influence on IIT. This is consistent with the view that horizontal multinationals displace exports to the host country. At the same time, our results indicate that IIT will be stimulated to the extent that the entry of multinationals induces intra-industry specialization. We also analyse the role of product differentiation and plant level scale economies in determining IIT.     

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.     

Differences in GDP Per Capita and the Share of Intraindustry Trade: The Role of Vertically Differentiated Trade

This paper examines the relationship between per capita GDP differences and bilateral intraindustry trade shares. The relationship is negative in OLS regressions but positive in fixed-effect regressions, and evidence is presented suggesting this is due to the presence of vertically differentiated trade. The paper begins by distinguishing between vertically and horizontally differentiated trade, and then finds a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita differences and the trade shares only in the regressions on the vertically differentiated trade shares. It is shown also that the extent to which income distributions overlap affects only the share of vertically differentiated trade.     

Terms of trade volatility,government spending cyclicality,and economic growth

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. Based on 5‐year nonoverlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980 to 2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant negative effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending. In countries where government spending is countercyclical, terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility.     

Foreign Trade Patterns Between Estonia and the EU

In this paper, we focus on the development of the foreign trade flows between Estonia and the EU. We observe rapid reorientation of the trade flows from the former Soviet Union towards Western markets because of economic reforms and foreign trade liberalization. Moreover, we determine the commodity groups with a comparative advantage in the EU market and analyze its dynamics. Further analysis of the intra-industry trade (ITT) shows that vertical IIT plays a dominant role in Estonian-EU IIT flows. Shares of total, vertical, and horizontal IIT have grown rapidly since 2004, the year of accession to the EU.     

Intra-industry Trade and Innovation: An empirical study of the Colombian manufacturing industry

This paper analyses the theoretical and empirical relationship between intra-industry trade (IIT) flows in manufactures and technical change for the Colombian manufacturing industry during the 1970-95 period. A general estimating equation for the sources of change of the equilibrium number of varieties, in which TFP growth is one of its components, is derived from the basic model of trade in differentiated goods with monopolistic competition. Based on that relationship, several estimations on the determinants of IIT flows are carried out. The econometric set up follows a panel data and cross-section estimations of system of simultaneous equations. TFP and IIT indices are the endogenous variables of the system with industry characteristic, trade policy, and innovation-activity variables as the set of exogenous variables. The paper also presents a comparative analysis in the direction and trends of Colombia's IIT flows in manufactures with the Group of Seven, NAFTA, and the Latin American Free Trade area members (LAFTA) since 1974.     

Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth.     

内地与香港双边贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

内地各省市（自治区）的GDP和人均GDP、香港人均GDP、绝对距离以及泛珠三角区域合作组织等解释变量,是影响双边贸易流量的主要因素;各因素的影响程度互有不同,内地各省市（自治区）对香港的出口贸易潜力也存在一定差异。因此,内地与香港应采取针对性的措施,进一步加强经贸交流和合作,充分发挥各自的区位优势和竞争优势,实现两地经济的共同繁荣。     

Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.     

Inequality and economic growth: the role of initial income

We estimate a panel model where the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth depends on countries’ initial incomes. Estimates of the model show that the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth is significantly decreasing in countries’ initial incomes. Results from instrumental variables regressions show that in Low Income Countries transitional growth is boosted by greater income inequality. In High Income Countries inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional growth. For the median country in the world, that in the year 2015 had a PPP GDP per capita of around 10000USD, IV estimates predict that a 1 percentage point increase in the Gini coefficient decreases GDP per capita growth over a 5-year period by over 1 percentage point; the long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is around ??5%.     

Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade in Australian manufacturing: does trade liberalization have any impact?

This paper contributes to the literature on intra-industry trade (IIT) by disentangling such trade into horizontally and vertically differentiated products, and investigating their determinants in the context of trade liberalization in Australia. IIT in Australian manufacturing has increased following trade liberalization in 1980s and is increasingly dominated by vertically differentiated products. Industry level evidence confirms that the failure to segregate IIT into horizontally and vertically differentiated products produces misleading results as their determinants differ. Also, structural changes brought about by the policy liberalization appear to have an impact on total as well vertical IIT.     

The macroeconomic costs of conflict

Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by almost 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. To alleviate reverse causality concerns between GDP and conflict onset, we control for pre-conflict GDP forecasts from the IMF World Economic Outlook and show that similar results are obtained with and without pre-conflict GDP forecasts.