财政补贴对我国农户农业保险参保决策影响的实证研究——以浙江省为例

2004年,中国开始政策性农业保险试点工作,各级政府通过财政补贴激励农户购买农业保险。本文以浙江省为例,采用Logistic模型,对影响农户农业保险参保决策的因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：农户对保费补贴政策的了解程度对其参保决策具有统计上的显著影响;保费补贴激励和风险厌恶激励成为推动农户参保的主要因素。据此本文指出,提高农户对政策性农业保险的认知程度和设计符合农户需求的保险险种,能够推动政策性农业保险的深入发展。     

粮食补贴政策的协同效应分析

从世界范围来看,农业补贴的核心是粮食补贴。运用灰色关联分析法,从我国现行粮食补贴政策的实施效果分析来看,在提高粮食产量和增加种粮农民收入上,生产性专项补贴与农资综合直补比直接补贴更有成效,直补政策在增加农民收入方面更具优势。我国应该合理整合各项补贴政策,发挥其协同效应,以保障粮食增产和农民增收两大目标的实现。     

农业保险理论研究述评及展望

农业保险问题一直是保险学和农业经济学领域关注的热点问题,国内外学者对此做了大量研究。国外文献研究了农业保险市场失灵、政府介入农业保险市场的原因和农业保险需求,国内文献主要研究了农业保险的政策属性、财政补贴、农业保险需求和供给。这表明农业保险研究仍局限于新古典经济学的研究范式,把农业保险组织视为黑箱。本文在梳理国内外文献的基础上提出了一个新的研究视角——组织视角,并构建了农业保险组织研究的理论框架。     

基于粮食安全背景下的农业补贴安排

全球农产品价格上涨,甚至在一些国家造成了通胀。粮食安全问题再次引起各国政府关注。结合当前的国内外形势,从贸易扭曲、战略选择、粮食安全等角度对农业补贴进行分类。直接补贴,农民可以直接受益,如农民收入补贴。另一种是间接补贴,农民只能间接受益,如农产品价格补贴,包括中国采取的按保护价收购农民余粮的价格补贴。     

Impact of farmer group participation on the adoption of sustainable farming practices—spatial analysis of New Zealand dairy farmers

This paper analyzes the impact of participation in farmer groups on dairy farmers’ adoption of sustainable farming practices in New Zealand. A spatial propensity score matching method is used to consider the spatial dependence and social connections between farmers in the decision-making of farmer group participation and adoption of sustainable farming practices. The results show that farmers’ decisions of farmer group participation are affected by their neighbors’ choices, and participation in farmer groups has a positive effect on farmers’ adoption of sustainable farming practices. The findings indicate the important role of social interactions in farmers’ voluntary uptake of sustainable agricultural practices. Overall, the positive effect of farmer group participation on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices highlights learning and knowledge spillover among farmers, which emerges as important to the formulation of sustainable farming policy.     

美国、欧盟、日本的“绿箱”支持政策及其评价

随着农业贸易自由化的推进,国内农业支持政策对于提高农业竞争力和解决"三农"问题至关重要。自1995年以来,WTO成员为遵循《农业协议》的要求,通过调整国内农业政策,将国内农业支持逐渐由"黄箱"转向"绿箱"。通过对WTO成员中大量使用"绿箱"支出的三个发达成员——美国、欧盟、日本的国内农业支持政策改革及其"绿箱"政策实施情况的考察,可以看出,由于"绿箱"补贴增加了农民收入并使农民面临的风险减少,会刺激农民进行生产性投入,增加农业生产,加剧国际农产品市场竞争的不公平性,使发展中国家的农业生产者在国际竞争中处于不利地位。因此,WTO成员在实现农业支持向"绿箱"转变的同时,应对其补贴总量进行控制和削减,减少变相的价格支持。     

我国政策性农业保险实施效果评价

根据在政策性农业保险试点地区进行实地调研所得的数据,对农户对我国政策性农业保险实施效果的评价结果进行了描述性统计分析。调研结果表明:不同地区的农户对农业保险的需求程度不同,因此其对农业保险实施效果的评价结果也不尽相同;总体来讲,农业保险在稳定农作物产量、稳定农户家庭收入、增强农业抵御风险能力等方面确实发挥了一定的作用,但还未具有明显的长期效果,并未得到广泛认可。     

干旱指数保险支付意愿研究——基于湖北省孝感市的实证分析

本文以湖北省孝感市273个农户的调查数据为依据,通过Logistic模型对农户干旱指数保险支付意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明：被调查农户农业干旱保险意愿不强,其中72.5%的农户没有支付意愿;有支付意愿的农户愿意支付的保险费也相当低,平均只有每亩12元。基于此,本文为该地区农业干旱指数保险的发展提供相关政策建议：加大对农村的人力资本投资;增加农民收入,提高支付能力;加强农业干旱指数保险的宣传教育工作;探讨合理的农业保险补贴方式和标准;加强天气指数保险研究力度,积极推进天气指数保险试点工作。     

农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿及其影响因素分析——基于黑、鲁、豫、川4省684户农户的调查数据

农业废弃物资源化利用是防治农业面源污染、改善农业生产环境的有效途径;同时,也是改善农村人居环境,推动生态宜居美丽乡村建设的重要内容。基于黑龙江、山东、河南、四川4省684个样本农户数据,运用多元排序Probit模型分析了农户农业废弃物资源化利用参与意愿及其影响因素,并通过控制相关变量进行了稳健性检验。结果表明,政府监管并不能提高农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿,而前景预期、政策了解度、农业废弃物资源化补贴、设立固定回收点或与回收企业合作、合作社参与等因素更能提高农户的参与意愿。为此,可以采取发挥非经济预期的作用、构建财政补贴机制、健全农业废弃物资源化回收利用机制、利用合作社平台等措施激发农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的关键行为动机,提高农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿,推动农业绿色发展及乡村生态振兴。     

Agricultural producer service subsidies and agricultural pollution: An approach based on endogenous agricultural pollution

Agricultural producer service is an indispensable link in promoting agricultural modernization in developing countries, while agricultural pollution has become the largest source of pollution in many developing countries. Given that agricultural pollution is different from industrial pollution due to its endogenous characteristics, we linked agricultural pollution with the human capital level of labor and propose an endogenous model that reflects the agricultural pollution path, which is different from the traditional path. We studied the effects of government price subsidy, interest subsidy, and wage subsidy to agricultural producer service on agricultural pollution and other economic indicators by constructing a three-sector general equilibrium model including agricultural producer service. We found that the rise of price subsidy for the agricultural producer service and the wage subsidy of the agricultural producer service sector would increase the output of agricultural sector and reduce the output of agricultural producer service under certain conditions, but aggravate agricultural pollution; at the same time, the rise of interest subsidy of the agricultural producer service sector would decrease the output of the agricultural sector, enhance the output of agricultural producer service conditionally, and decrease agricultural pollution. Preconditions of the three subsidies to improve national welfare have been obtained.     

农户生态耕种采纳行为影响因素实证研究——基于江西省1488份农户的调查数据

基于江西省11市47县(区)1488份农户调查问卷数据,运用多元有序Logistic模型,分析并探究农户生态耕种采纳行为的影响因素。结果表明:家庭总人口具有显著的负向影响;兼业程度、农业收入占比、家中是否有村干部、是否参加新农保、是否有农业补贴、是否为家庭农场、是否加入合作社、近年耕地质量变化、相关信息获取难度等9个变量具有显著的正向影响。农户对生态耕种行为采纳的均值只有4.74项,总体偏低,生态耕种行为有待推广与应用。论文探究了农户生态耕种采纳行为的影响因素,为生态耕种的推广、实现耕地资源的可持续发展、激励农户生态耕种政策的制定提供了参考。     

我国农业保险信息不对称问题研究

农业保险是现代农业发展的有力保障,也是强农惠农的重要政策之一,但信息不对称问题严重阻碍了我国农业保险的发展。研究发现,投保农户与保险公司的逆选择、心里风险和道德风险是农业保险信息不对称的主要表现形式,而农业生产的特殊性、农业风险的多样化,以及农业保险的利益外溢性和我国农民保险知识匮乏、诚信意识较差等等是导致我国农业保险信息不对称问题产生的主要原因。因此,本文提出建立适合我国国情的农业保险经营模式,积极发展由政府支持、商业保险公司参与的农业保险合作社模式经营农业保险;并根据农业保险信息不对称的不同表现形式,建立相应的博弈模型从而优化保单设计、制定合理价格策略;最后,加大科技投入建立信息甄别机制和险情评估系统、宣传农业保险以及建立农业保险监管体系等也是防范信息不对称的重要举措。     

Insurance,credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi

Does production risk suppress the demand for credit? We implemented a randomized field experiment to ask whether provision of insurance against a major source of production risk induces farmers to take out loans to adopt a new crop technology. The study sample was composed of roughly 800 maize and groundnut farmers in Malawi, where by far the dominant source of production risk is the level of rainfall. We randomly selected half of the farmers to be offered credit to purchase high-yielding hybrid maize and groundnut seeds for planting in the November 2006 crop season. The other half of farmers were offered a similar credit package, but were also required to purchase (at actuarially fair rates) a weather insurance policy that partially or fully forgave the loan in the event of poor rainfall. Surprisingly, take-up was lower by 13 percentage points among farmers offered insurance with the loan. Take-up was 33.0% for farmers who were offered the uninsured loan. There is suggestive evidence that reduced take-up of the insured loan was due to farmers already having implicit insurance from the limited liability clause in the loan contract: insured loan take-up was positively correlated with farmer education, income, and wealth, which may proxy for the individual's default costs. By contrast, take-up of the uninsured loan was uncorrelated with these farmer characteristics.     

Optimal Taxation of Risky Human Capital*

In a two‐period life‐cycle model with ex ante homogeneous households, earnings risk, and a general earnings function, we derive the optimal linear labor tax rate and optimal linear education subsidies. The optimal income tax trades off social insurance against incentives to work. Education subsidies are not used for social insurance, but they are only targeted at offsetting the distortions of the labor tax and internalizing a fiscal externality. Both optimal education subsidies and tax rates increase if labor and education are more complementary, because education subsidies indirectly lower labor tax distortions by stimulating labor supply. Optimal education subsidies (taxes) also correct non‐tax distortions arising from missing insurance markets. Education subsidies internalize a positive (negative) fiscal externality if there is underinvestment (overinvestment) in education because of risk. Education policy unambiguously allows for more social insurance if education is a risky activity. However, if education hedges against labor‐market risk, optimal tax rates could be lower than in the case without education subsidies.     

Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers

Weather-related agricultural risks and limited access to credit are serious impediments to agricultural productivity and growth in developing countries. This paper describes a novel insurance linked credit model piloted in Kenya, where insurance markets are effectively absent, and farmers do not borrow because of the risk of losing their collateral. One of the challenges in deigning bundled credit products, in the absence of traded securities, is the actuarial pricing and risk rating of the insurance and the loan product. We develop a rainfall linked risk-contingent credit that transfers drought risk related perils from borrower to lender via insurance mechanism that provide a balance between business and credit risks for smallholder farmers. We describe the methodology used to design and rating of a risk-contingent structured operating agricultural credit instrument using CHIRPS rainfall data from 1981–2016 in Kenya. We illustrate the use of Monte Carlo methods to risk modelling that can be integrated within the general insurance and credit rating framework. The innovative design and methodology presented in this paper are as important as the product delivery mechanism and will be of interest to specialists in development economics and agricultural finance.     

粮食补贴政策对农户种植行为影响的实证分析

粮食补贴政策旨在提高农民种粮积极性,促进粮食增产和农民增收。本文通过构建嵌入补贴政策的农户种植决策行为理论模型,考察粮食补贴政策对农户粮食种植行为的影响,并利用安徽省17个地市421户农户的微观调查数据进行实证检验。实证结果显示,粮食补贴政策对激励农户增加粮食播种面积具有显著的正面效应,粮食补贴政策在动态趋势上表现出显著的"土地投入"激励效应。     

The regulatory effect of cooperation degree in increasing tobacco farmers’ income by mitigating production risk shocks

Context : Different from general agriculture, tobacco agriculture in China adopts the production mode of farmers’ cooperatives to instruct farmers to engage in tobacco agricultural production under a policy of tobacco control. In addition to providing convenience for industry technical standardization, the policy goal aims to cope with the impact of production risk shocks and ultimately ensure the modernization and transformation of the tobacco industry and the stability of income of farmers. Objective : This study intends to explore the influence mechanism of the different degrees of cooperation and participation in cooperatives on the income of tobacco farmers from the perspective of risk shocks. Methods : Through the quantitative methods of the OLS regression model, hierarchical regression model and moderation model, this paper analyzes the data of 393 farmers engaged in tobacco agricultural production in Shaanxi Province obtained from survey and empirically analyzes the relationship between the degree of cooperation and participation in cooperatives and income. Interaction terms between risk shocks and cooperation are introduced to verify the regulatory effect of participation in tobacco farmers’ professional cooperatives on mitigating risk shocks and improving agricultural income. Results and conclusions : The results show that while risk shocks, including natural risks, market risks and policy risks, negatively affect the income of tobacco farmers, the degree of cooperation and participation has a significant positive effect on the income of tobacco farmers, and the degree of peasant households’ participation in the professional cooperative of tobacco farmers as a moderator variable has a regulatory effect on mitigating the impact of risk shocks on the income of tobacco farmers. The mechanism of action is that tobacco farmers participate in cooperatives to a higher degree, which can further promote the association of farmers and jointly resist risk shocks by reducing production costs, improving the technical level, and strengthening risk prevention and other measures to improve the income level. Significance : It would be helpful to encourage tobacco farmers to take the initiative to participate in the daily management-related affairs and decisions of cooperatives, strengthen technical training, obey cooperative management, and actively respond to cooperative policies to effectively resist risk shocks and stabilize farmers’ income level and family welfare.     

农户技术选择的微观动机与宏观行为分析——兼论农户个体选择与村落群体选择的相容性

利用多人集体行动博弈分析了农户技术选择行为。结果表明,分散农户的微观行为很难形成一致性的集体行动,也很难实现农村社会宏观行为的最优化。实际调查结果显示:不同群体的农户的技术选择行为不相同;种养规模越大的农户越倾向于选择正规途径获得农业新技术,种养规模越小的农户越倾向于从民间途径获得农业新技术;以政府为主导的技术供给模式并没有获得农民的完全认可。最后提出:提高农户的组织化水平、提高技术供给主体的供给实力,是突破农户自身无序选择、实现农村社会宏观行为最优的有效手段。     

Effects of subsidies on growth and welfare in a quality-ladder model with elastic labor

This paper develops a quality-ladder growth model with elastic labor supply and distortionary taxes to analyze the effects of different subsidy instruments: subsidies to the production of final goods, subsidies to the purchase of intermediate goods, and subsidies to research and development (R&D). Moreover, the model is calibrated to the US data to compare the growth and welfare implications of these subsidies. The main results are as follows. First, we analytically show that an optimal coordination of all instruments attains the first-best outcome. Second, in the calibrated economy, we numerically find that for the use of a single instrument, R&D subsidy is less growth-enhancing and welfare-improving than the other subsidies, whereas for the use of a mix of two instruments, subsidizing the production of final goods and the purchase of intermediate goods is most effective in promoting growth but least effective in raising welfare.     

Subsidies under uncertainty: Modeling of input- and output-oriented policies

Agricultural subsidies play an essential role in agricultural and rural development in many developed economies. Countries have implemented agricultural subsidy policies with a focus on food security and environmental protection. Agricultural production is risky and uncertain, influencing the efficiency of agricultural subsidies. This study develops a theoretical framework to analyze the effects of production uncertainties on the efficiency of agricultural subsidy policies under the double constraints of food security and environmental protection. The basic model is investigated under six different conditions, and expanded research also is presented. Our models show that uncertainty, including output, cost, and price uncertainties, and technology conversion efficiency significantly affects the efficiency of agricultural subsidies. Under high technology conversion efficiency, output-oriented subsidies are appropriate for food security and environmental protection goals. Policymakers should take both uncertainty and production efficiency into consideration when choosing between input-oriented and output-oriented subsidy policies.