Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies

The interaction between the exchange rate regime and macroeconomic stabilization in several transition economies during 1990–1996 was influenced by the persistence of high inflation rates and the initial disequilibrium between the highly undervalued nominal exchange rates in relation to their purchasing power parity estimates. Policymakers generally adopted the flexible (nominal) exchange rate regimes for manipulating real exchange rates with a view to correcting the exchange rate disequilibrium and conveying inflation control signals. The rates of real appreciation were higher in the earlier years of high inflation rates. By 1996, lower inflation rates required less currency appreciations thereby reducing the negative impact of the latter on trade competitiveness. However, the persistence of unwarranted interest rate differentials, a consequence of the domination of monetary control over prudent fiscal management, and the associated inflows of foreign funds put an upward pressure on exchange rates exacerbating trade competitiveness. The transition record suggests that innovative exchange rate arrangements can provide only a brief interval during which sound fiscal discipline needs to be put in place for controlling inflation.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 621–641. Columbia University, New York, New York 10027.     

HUNGARY'S EUROZONE ENTRY DATE: WHAT DO THE MARKETS THINK AND WHAT IF THEY CHANGE THEIR MINDS?

This article investigates the potential impact of a shift in market expectations about a country's eurozone entry date on long-term yields and the spot exchange rate in a simple uncovered interest parity (UIP) framework. The results suggest that the size of the reactions depend on how far the entry date is postponed, how far current inflation is from the Maastricht-satisfying level, and whether the credibility of the central bank's target inflation path is sensitive to changes in the expected entry date. In the empirical part, the authors apply the framework for Hungary and draw some policy conclusions for the timing of ERM II entry. (JEL E44 , E52 , F33 )     

Money Demand in an EU Accession Country: A VECM Study of Croatia

The paper estimates the money demand in Croatia using monthly data from 1994 to 2002. A failure of the Fisher equation is found, and adjustment to the standard money‐demand function is made to include the inflation rate as well as the nominal interest rate. In a two‐equation cointegrated system, a stable money demand shows rapid convergence back to equilibrium after shocks. This function performs better than an alternative using the exchange rate instead of the inflation rate as in the ‘pass‐through’ literature on exchange rates. The results provide a basis for inflation rate forecasting and suggest the ability to use inflation targeting goals in transition countries during the EU accession process. Finding a stable money demand also limits the scope for central bank ‘inflation bias’.     

What determines China's inflation?

We examine determinants of inflation in China. Analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices, and stock prices positively affect inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after ten months. Effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that the output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining the inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are crucial.     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.     

Virtual and Composite Fundamentals in the ERM

A latent-variable approach is applied to identify the appropriate driving process for fundamental exchange rates in the ERM. From the time-series characteristics of so-called "virtual fundamentals" and "composite fundamentals", a significant degree of mean reversion can be asserted. The relative degree of mean reversion across countries closely corresponds to often assumed degrees of economic integration vis-a-vis Germany as well as documented degrees of credibility of the exchange rate policies pursued. Convergence in fundamentals appears to be larger under the "new" EMS than in the previous years, but has again diminished after German unification and the subsequent widening of the ERM bands in 1993.     

Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates

In this paper we analyze the existence of nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates for some major industrialized countries using an error correction model with time-varying parameters for the post Bretton Woods period. We find that inflation rate differentials with respect to the US inflation rate are the driving forces for the nonlinear relationships in the monetary model for exchange rates for the data from Germany, the UK, Canada, France and Italy. In addition to the variables in the traditional monetary model, also the relative interest rates are relevant in determining exchange rate changes only when the inflation differentials are either very large or very small. In contrast to previous studies we find significant long-run effects in the error correction representation of the monetary model for exchange rates when the nonlinear dynamics is taken into account in the analysis.     

German unification: What have we learned from multi-country models?

This study reviews early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved reasonably accurate guides to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on key macroeconomic variables. Unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the exchange rate, and downward pressure on the current account balance. The model simulations also highlighted contractionary effects of high German interest rates on EMS countries.     

Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies

Price and liquidity puzzles have been identified as two major counterintuitive findings arising from monetary shocks. We investigate their presence in eleven African countries, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed for indebted small open-economies. Our simulations reveal that the majority of African countries report a price puzzle whereas only three countries exhibit liquidity effect. In many of the sampled countries, a positive money growth shock drives interest rates up, but consumption and output fall in contrast to the conventional view. External debt increases in response to money growth shock, exchange rate appreciates and inflation falls. Money growth shocks are transmitted to the economy through the exchange rate channel when uncovered interest rate parity condition holds. Our findings therefore appear to suggest that monetary policy in Africa should prioritize foreign debt stabilization by reacting more to output gap than to inflation.     

Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.     

Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy

An important issue in small open-economies is whether policymakers should respond to exchange rate movements when they formulate monetary policy. Micro-founded models tend to suggest that there is little to be gained from responding to exchange rate movements, and the literature has largely concluded that such a response is unnecessary, or even undesirable. This paper examines this issue using an estimated model of the Australian economy. In contrast to microfounded models, according to this model policymakers should allow for movements in the real exchange rate and the terms-of-trade when they set interest rates. Further, taking real exchange rate movements into account appears even more important with price level targeting than with inflation targeting.     

Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance

Countries have significantly increased their public-sector borrowing since the Global Financial Crisis. As a consequence, monetary authorities may face pressure to deviate from their policy targets in ways designed to ease the debt burden. In view of this consideration, we test for greater fiscal dominance over 2000-2017 under Inflation Targeting (IT) and non-IT regimes. We find that evidence of fiscal dominance varies across countries and debt configurations. Higher ratios of public debt-to-GDP may appear associated with lower policy interest rates in advanced economies. However, a declining natural rate of interest largely explains the pattern of lower rates and higher debt in these countries. The most robust evidence of fiscal dominance lies among emerging markets under non-IT regimes, composed mostly of exchange rate targeters. For these countries, policy interest rates are non-linearly associated with public debt levels, depending on both the level of hard-currency public debt-to-GDP and the currency composition of public debt. We also show that emerging market economies with greater exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, and underlying commodity exposure exhibit stronger associations between public debt and policy interest rates.     

On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.     

Uncovered Interest Parity: Cross‐Sectional Evidence

Uncovered interest parity (UIP) is estimated for short‐term horizons from one month to 12 months using a large number of cross‐sectional bilateral exchange rates. In contrast to conventional time‐series UIP, cross‐sectional UIP is examined with a single‐equation estimation and panel regression model estimation. The exchange rates analyzed here include a broad spectrum of countries: developed, developing, low‐inflation, and high‐inflation countries. Based on the empirical evidence, there does not appear to be a well‐publicized UIP puzzle for cross‐sectional UIP, and the slope estimates remain largely between zero and one throughout the sample periods, with a few exceptions. Evidence of UIP is more clear for low inflation countries than for high inflation countries. As interest rate maturity becomes longer from one month to 12 months, the UIP relationship becomes weaker.     

How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates

Monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Fed can be characterized by ‘Taylor rules’, that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the ‘output gap’ and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro–dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the ‘fit’ between actual and Taylor rule based rates. In general, Taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing Fed policy than ECB policy. Simulations suggest that the ECB's short-term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last 2 years compared with what a Taylor rule would suggest.     

The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates in a small open emerging economy: The case of Romania

This paper revisits the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in a small open emerging economy using wavelet-based methodologies. Based on data for Romania, our results confirm the theoretical predictions on the interest rate - exchange rate relationship during turmoil or policy changes. In the short term, the relationship is negative, confirming the sticky-price models, and over the long term, the relationship is positive, confirming the Purchasing Power Parity theory. At the beginning of the turmoil, the exchange rate movements generally take the lead over the interest rates for the first month, but the monetary authorities take the lead afterwards. Our results reveal that in a small open emerging economy with a direct inflation targeting monetary policy regime, the relationship between exchange rates and interest rate is fundamentally different from that in an advanced economy. Also, our results stress the necessity that the central bank must pay simultaneous attention to both variables in order to achieve their monetary policy targets.     

External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy

The paper develops a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which discusses the conditions that lead to an external debt crisis in a small developing economy fully integrated to global goods and financial markets. The focus is on how policy rules affect the stability of the economy. Two kinds of policy rules are discussed, namely inflation target and real exchange rate target, implemented through an interest rate operation procedure (IROP). It is argued that in both cases the evolution of the real exchange rate should be closely monitored to avoid external instability. It is also suggested that a real exchange rate target may be more effective to stabilize the economy if there is a strong tendency towards the equality of the foreign and domestic real interest rates.     

Value,Distribution and Capital: A review essay

This article identifies two possible alternative approaches to questions of exchange rate policy within a broadly keynesian frame work. One argument is that the implementation of keynesian’ policies in single jurisdiction requires a ‘managed’ or ‘dirty’ float, while the other would stress the benefits of a greater degree of nominal exchange rate stability as a means of reducing uncertainty and the volatility of expectations. We argue in favour of the former, on the grounds that it will not be possible to pursue a lsquo;cheap money’ policy to reduce real interest rates in a single jurisdiction unless there is some room to manoeuvre on exchange rates. A ‘fixed but adjustable’ exchange rate regime is less attractive because of the potential for deflationary bias in a hegemonic system with fixed exchange rates. Also, the politicization of exchange rate policy in such an environment makes necessary adjustments, particularly in a reflationary direction, more difficult than they otherwise would be. The recent history of the ERM in Europe provides examples of both phenomena.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.