Real Wage and Nominal Shock: Evidence from Pacific-Rim Countries

This paper examines aggregate real-wage responses to nominal shocks in four Pacific-rim countries utilizing a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. In this study, positive real-wage responses are found in Japan and New Zealand whereas negative responses are found in Australia and Korea. In the transmission of nominal shocks to real economic activities, the findings show a sticky-price model to be more important in Japan and New Zealand, while a sticky-wage model plays the more dominant role in Australia and Korea.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 54th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., October 10–13, 2002. The author would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are attributed to the author.     

Co‐Movement Towards a Currency or Monetary Union? An Empirical Study for New Zealand

This paper analyses whether New Zealand would be ready to form a currency or monetary union with either Australia, the 11 EU countries that are members of the EMU, Japan, or the US, if the criteria that have been used by researchers for the EMU are applied. The analysis is an empirical study with data from the mid 1980s to 1998, using cointegration techniques to search for co-movement and convergence in key economic variables: interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, real GDP, and current-account/GDP ratios.     

Testing for Seasonal Stability in Unemployment Series: International Evidence

Recently, it has been shown that seasonal and business cycles are related and a similar economic mechanism is at work in producing both types of cycles (Miron 1996). Thus, an analysis of seasonal fluctuations sheds light on the nature of the business cycle. This paper uses the classical test developed by Hylleberg et al. and the LM-type tests proposed by Canova and Hansen (1995) to investigate seasonal behavior in the unemployment series of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the US and a number of OECD countries. The main findings are that the Australian, Austrian and Canadian series are non-stationary at all seasonal frequencies, French, Japan, the NZ and the UK series are stationary at all seasonal frequencies and the USA series is stationary only at the annual frequency. The test results for other series are mixed, suggesting that further analysis is required to reach a definite conclusion. The series, except for France, Japan, New Zealand and the UK, appear to possess unstable seasonal patterns, indicating changing business cycle conditions.     

The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

We study the changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to 14 OECD countries over the period 1981Q1–2010Q4. The U.S. monetary policy shock is defined as unexpected change in Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR). We use a time varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach (TVP-FAVAR) to study the EFFR shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables for U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Australia, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland and New Zealand. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative U.S. monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the U.S., Canada, Japan and Sweden while most of the other member countries benefits. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. We also detect a more depressed GDP over medium term in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, Norway and Sweden over the recent global financial crisis. Third, the size of U.S. monetary policy shocks during financial turmoil periods were unusual than normal periods and varies overtime. The financial crisis (2008–2009) is evidenced by decline in residential investment in the U.S. and propagation of this shock to Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand over the recent period. U.S. monetary policy shocks reduce share prices in most of the OECD countries; this impact is more pronounced over the turmoil period. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.     

基于竞争态模型的中国FDI引进格局分析与战略选择

将竞争态模型引入FDI研究,并以2000--2009年中国外资利用情况进行实证。结果显示：①竞争态是分析外资引进变化趋势和特征的有效方法,能深人把握外资引进目标地的时空结构特征,有利于政府决策;②长期以来,中国外资引进竞争态格局结构基本健全,类型分布虽不理想但日趋合理,外资引进重心稳定于亚太地区和美国等;③未来中国外资引进目标地分为三级,第一级定位于亚太地区的香港、韩国、日本、新加坡、台湾和俄罗斯等,应将收获性和开拓性战略并举;第二级定位于美国和加拿大等发达北美洲国家,应实施扩张性战略;第三级定位于英、法、德、意、瑞士、瑞典、丹麦和荷兰等欧洲发达国家,应实施选择性战略;关于非洲国家外资引入,除政治因素外应采取撤退性战略。     

CURRENCY MARKET CONTAGION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

During the East Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 the potential transmission of the crisis to developed markets such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand, was of considerable policy concern. Potential channels consist of anticipated movements stemming from common factors, spillovers and contagion. The empirical results show that the transmission of volatility in the East-Asian currency markets to the developed markets in the region is not due to contagion, but rather attributed to common world factors. Spillovers have a minor role in the case of Japan and to a lesser degree, Australia.     

Empirical Regularities in Cross-Country Alcohol Consumption*

This paper analyses the demand for the three beverages: beer, wine and spirits, within alcohol, at a cross-country level for 10 countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US. A number of empirical regularities were found at the cross-country level. This includes: (i) the demand theory hypotheses, homogeneity and symmetry are generally acceptable; (ii) the additive utility hypothesis is also acceptable even for such narrowly defined commodities; (iii) in nine out of the 10 countries, beer is considered as a necessity, in half of the countries wine is a necessity and in all the countries spirits are a luxury; and (iv)in all the countries, the demand for beer, wine and spirits are price inelastic.     

Cross-country alcohol consumption comparison: an application of the Rotterdam demand system

This paper analyses the consumption patterns of the three beverages beer, wine and spirits in nine countries, Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US, using the Rotterdam demand system. A cross-country comparison of the results shows that in most countries (i)wine consumption has grown at a fasteer rate than beer and spirits; (ii) the proportion of consumers' expenditure on alcohol is declining; (iii)beer is a necessity and spirits is a luxury; (iv)the demand for the three beverages is price inelastic; and (iv)all three beverages are pair-wise substitutes. We also investigated the hypothesis of identical parameters for all countries by pooling the data across countries and found that the data do not support the hypothesis.     

Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

Real Effects of Monetary Policy in New Zealand

This article analyses the dynamic effects of unexpected domestic and foreign monetary policy shocks on industrial output in New Zealand based on a new open economy macroeconomic model. Empirical analyses are performed using unrestricted recursive open economy vector autoregressive models involving policy and non‐policy variables for New Zealand and four of its most important trading partners (that is, Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). The empirical findings are in accord with the qualitative predictions of the conventional monetary transmission mechanism applicable to a small open economy. Consequently, no empirical anomalies are observed in the dynamic behaviour of New Zealand industrial output in response to restrictive monetary innovations of domestic and foreign origin.     

Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach

This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-four OECD countries from 1960 to 1997. A new panel data approach is applied which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Two different models are used. A bivariate (GDP–exports) model and a trivariate (GDP–exports–openness) model, both without and with a linear time trend. In each case the analysis focusses on direct, one-period-ahead causality between exports and GDP. The results indicate one-way causality from exports to GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden, one-way causality from GDP to exports in Austria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway and Portugal, two-way causality between exports and growth in Canada, Finland and the Netherlands, while in the case of Australia, Korea, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the USA there is no evidence of causality in either direction.     

How integrated are real estate markets with the world market? Evidence from case-wise bootstrap analysis

We investigate the extent by which real estate markets are integrated with the world market. We apply a case-wise bootstrap analysis — a method that is robust to non-normality and increased volatility that characterises financial markets, especially during periods of distress. We also take into account the effect of the global financial crisis. Our investigation is conducted in relation to five most important and highly internationalised real estate markets, namely, the US, UK, Japan, Australia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We find that the first four markets are integrated with the world market — with Japan, the US, and the UK being the most integrated, but the last one is not. Our results also show that the US real estate market crisis affected the five markets differently. It made the UAE, Australia and the US real estate markets more integrated internationally but resulted in the Japanese market becoming less globally integrated. In the case of the UK, the crisis did not affect at all its level of integration with the world market.     

Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth

This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.     

WOULD AUSTRALIA–NEW ZEALAND BE A VIABLE CURRENCY UNION? EVIDENCE FROM INTERSTATE RISK‐SHARING PERFORMANCES

In this article, we first measure the potential welfare gains from perfect risk sharing among Australian states and New Zealand regions under possible unification. We show that New Zealand regions reap moderate gains from perfect risk sharing when they form a union with Australia, whereas for Australian states, the gains are somewhat similar to what they have attained at the intranational level. Second, we measure the extent of interstate risk sharing and intertemporal smoothing between the two countries. We are able to observe a substantial degree of intertemporal smoothing among Australian states and New Zealand regions, either alone or jointly, thus confirming the permanent income hypothesis. Further, unique to the risk‐sharing literature, we decompose the aggregate (nondiversifiable) output shocks into positive and negative components, in order to assess the strength of risk‐sharing mechanisms across business cycles. The study finds a virtual absence of risk sharing when Australia and New Zealand face negative aggregate fluctuations, raising doubts about the feasibility of the union, particularly during economic downturns. (JEL F41, F36)     

INCOME INEQUALITY IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS AND RECENT TRENDS

In this paper we present results on the distribution of income in Australia and New Zealand that can be compared with those for a range of other advanced countries. The framework of analysis, concepts and definitions used have been developed as part of the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). Using data for the early 1980s, the results indicate that the income distributions in Australia and New Zealand are not, as previous research has suggested, more equal than those in other countries. Neither country has an equivalent net family income inequality ranking in the top half of the eight countries studied. Further analysis indicates increasing inequality in Australia in the first half of the 1980s and, on the basis of some indicators, in New Zealand also. The paper does not investigate the causes of these increases in inequality, although the results indicate that the rise in property income has been a factor behind them.     

LABOUR MOBILITY AND TRANS‐TASMAN CURRENCY UNION*

The prospect of a common currency for Australia and New Zealand has been canvassed by senior poli‐ticians and bureaucrats, and has been the subject of academic debate. According to Mundell (1961 ), a high degree of internal labour mobility is a desirable feature of currency unions. This study looks at the extent to which long‐term migration between Australia and New Zealand responds to output shocks. Estimated VAR models and panel Granger‐causality tests demonstrate that shocks to relative per capita output have a significant and symmetrical impact on migration flows between Australia and New Zealand, and most of the impact is felt after about one year. Separating the shocks to Australia and New Zealand shows that ‘pull’ effects are more important than ‘push’ effects. Additionally, the trajectory of the Australian economy proves particularly influential for the choice of New Zealand emigrants. Although permanent migration responds intuitively to the state of the economy in Australia and New Zealand, the level of these migration flows is low in comparison to Australian inter‐state migration; yet it is high in relation to any third country.     

Foresight in science and technology

Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing such technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using foresight to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Female Education,Capital Formation,and Economic Growth in Japan and South Korea

ABSTRACT

The influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on host country‘s economic growth is a widely explored issues in the existing economic literature. This study attempts to examine the role of foreign direct investment, capital formation, and expansion of female education on economic growth of Japan during the period 1971–2014, using time series observations. The study further makes a comparison regarding the association with FDI and economic growth with South Korea, another major OECD economy of Asia The study utilises the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration to examine the long run causality association among the variables. Today, for sustainable economic development the social and institutional policy issues are important. The paper explores one such social issue, namely gender and economic prosperity. This paper has novel contributions in the current research on time series, econometric analysis for the following reasons: (1) it has investigated the relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and capital formation in a gendered differential framework (utilising the role of human capital formation among men versus women; (2) the study covers a long period and more recent time period (till 2014), which concurs with the upsurge of world FDI movements and (3) the study also explores the major structural breaks of the two economies and how economic growth is impacted thereof.