房地产市场对银行收益的系统性影响研究——以美国、中国香港、中国大陆市场为例

文章研究了三地上市银行和房地产公司股票之间的收益关系,发现三个市场的银行股票收益都显著地受到房地产股票波动的影响,并且利用三地数据的结构性差异点,确定了次贷危机发生作用的时点.对比次贷危机前后的三个市场银行股和房地产股票收益的关系后发现,代表银行股收益对房地产股波动敏感性的回归系数在次贷危机后均有所增大,显示美国和中国的银行业所面临的房地产风险已经由非系统性风险转变为系统性风险,其风险敞口在加大.     

Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets

This study examines dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices for seven East Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, for the period January 1988 to October 1998. Our empirical results show a significant causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices for Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find a causal relation from the equity market to the foreign exchange market for Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore. Further, while no country shows a significant causality from stock prices to exchange rates during the Asian crisis, a causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices is found for all countries except Malaysia. Our findings are robust with respect to various testing methods used, including Granger causality tests, a variance decomposition analysis, and an impulse response analysis. Our findings also indicate that the linkages vary across economies with respect to exchange rate regimes, the trade size, the degree of capital control, and the size of equity market.     

The impact of government intervention on stock returns: Evidence from Hong Kong

In August 1998, the Hong Kong government, in her effort to restore investors' confidence, purchased shares of the 33 stocks that constitute the Hang Seng Index (HS). We find that the government's action not only reverses the declining trend of the stock market but also reduces the volatility of the market. The main beneficiaries of the action are the shareholders of the stocks that are purchased by the government during the intervention period, and the increase in stock prices persists. Although the shareholders of non-Hang Seng stocks also gain from the intervention, their gain is smaller and does not last.     

The behaviour of Hong Kong stock prices

The primary function of a stock market is to allocate resources to the most profitable investment opportunities. If stock prices provide accurate signals for resource allocation, firms are able to make correct production–investment decisions, and investors are able to choose the most suitable stocks for investment. These choices are only possible if the market is efficient, that is, if stock prices ‘fully reflect’ all available information.

Hong Kong is now an international financial centre. Although Hong Kong's stock market is ranked as one of the five largest in the world in terms of turnover, little research has been devoted to the behaviour of its stock prices. This is a study of the efficiency of Hong Kong's stock market. It is based upon two widely accepted statistical tests, namely, serial correlation analysis and runs tests. Data used cover the daily prices of 28 major Hong Kong stocks over a period of four years from 1977 to 1980. The evidence is mixed; it does not provide clear support for the efficient market hypothesis.     

中国内地公司香港上市:实证分析与理论反思

通过对中国内地在港上市公司发展概况、公司特征等状况的实证统计分析,可以发现尽管内地上市公司已经成为香港市场的重要部分,但不同模式上市的内地公司在行业分布、盈利状况以及市场特征指标上仍存在一定差异。从现实看,尽管内地企业赴港上市符合其微观利益且在短期内无法避免,但从中国金融体系功能完善视角着眼,把优质企业留在内地,夯实内地市场的经济基础是中国金融市场发展进程中至关重要的战略选择。     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

Return spillovers around the globe: A network approach

We study the connectedness of a sample of 40 stock markets across five continents using daily closing prices and return spillovers based on Granger causality. All possible 1560 return spillovers between 40 markets create a complex network of relationships between equity markets around the world. Apart from analyzing the topological and time-varying properties of the created networks, we also identify the determinants of the connectedness of equity markets over time. Adjusting for non-synchronous trading, our modelling approach leads to evidence that the probability of return spillover from a given stock market to other markets increases with market volatility and market size and decreases with higher foreign exchange volatility. We empirically show that the temporal proximity between closing hours is important for information propagation; therefore, choosing markets that trade during similar hours bears an additional risk to investors because the probability of return spillovers increases.     

境外大股东持股与股价同步性研究

以2006-2010年的中国所有上市公司为研究对象,采用多种方法分析境外大股东与股价同步性的关系。结果发现：首先,境外大股东在来源地方面具有显著的地缘特征和经贸关系特征;其次,行业不同股价同步性呈现出较大差异,如采掘业、金融业的股价同步性很高,而制造业、批发零售业相对较小;再次,境外大股东持股与股价同步性呈显著负相关性;最后,来自非港澳台的直接境外大股东对股价同步性有更大的影响,而直接境外大股东是否为金融机构差异不明显。     

Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes

We examine the impact of negative foreign output shocks, which entail negative demand side effects by lowering exports and positive supply side effects by lowering oil prices, on the welfare of non-oil producing, small open economies under five exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with parameter values calibrated for Hong Kong, Israel, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We find that welfare levels among the five policy regimes depend on the economy's share of oil imports in world oil consumption. Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, which have smaller shares, maximize welfare under the Taylor rule, which targets both CPI inflation and real output. South Korea, with higher shares, and Taiwan, with more rigid prices, maximize welfare under real output targeting. CPI inflation targeting, nominal output growth targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes generate lower welfare. However, optimal monetary policy, which generates the highest welfare, gives greater weight on real output than CPI inflation.     

证券分析师评级报告的投资价值研究——来自香港股市的经验证据

伴随着证券市场的产生和繁荣,证券分析师队伍也日益壮大并日趋专业。以港股为例,通过跟踪经纪行数百名分析师自2003年以来对香港上市公司的评级结果,以及重点考察不同评级结果投资组合的收益率情况后,发现尽管分析师的专业判断具有显著的投资价值,并以此确定投资标的或重点研究跟踪对象具有良好的可操作性。但由于其评级结果具有较为明显的实效性,对市场的影响力也会发生变化,因此需要时刻密切注意分析师的最新评级成果并及时更新。     

香港和内地证券市场的动态竞争关系研究——基于A+H交叉上市公司的实证分析

交叉上市引起不同证券市场对有限投资者和资金资源的竞争。文章在阐述证券市场竞争的Lotka-Volterra模型基础上,通过2006-2010年38家A+H交叉上市企业的日交易数据实证分析了香港和内地证券市场之间的动态竞争过程。结果表明,两市场之间的动态竞争关系从交叉上市初期的捕食—诱饵关系逐步演化为目前的竞争互惠关系,且这种动态演化过程与企业交叉上市顺序没有显著的相关性。这说明内地证券市场正在不断完善,鼓励企业境外上市和A股回归将有利于内地证券市场的发展,而且互惠合作应是未来证券市场竞争的发展趋势。     

AN ANALYSIS OF HONG KONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE

Abstract.  The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, the USA and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income and are adversely affected by high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. Other variables explain marginally the variability of Hong Kong exports.     

A Tale of Two Currencies: the Asian Crisis and the Exchange Rate Regimes of Hong Kong and Singapore

Hong Kong has maintained a pegged exchange rate since 1983, while Singapore has been on a floating regime since the early 1970s. This paper provides an interpretation of the different performance of the Hong Kong and Singapore economy that could be attributable to the differences in their exchange rate regime. We develop a model that can help to interpret the differences in both the longer run trends in inflation and real exchange rates in Hong Kong and Singapore as well as the short differences in macroeconomic and real exchange rate volatility. The difference in the response of the two economies to the Asian crisis is also consistent with our model.     

资本市场开放与企业创新——基于沪深港通交易制度的准自然实验

资本市场改革能否有效促进实体经济发展是当前中国经济发展面临的重大挑战。基于企业创新研究视角，以沪深港通交易制度作为外生事件，采用多时点双重差分模型(DID)系统考察了我国资本市场开放对公司创新的影响及内在作用机理。研究发现，沪深港通交易制度实施显著提升了标的公司创新绩效，表现为专利产出增加，且该现象在管理层持股比例高、融资约束强的样本中较为显著，表明沪深港通制度通过提升管理层创新意愿与提高企业创新能力两大途径提升创新绩效。进一步分析发现，资本市场开放对企业创新的正向影响在信息透明度低、沪深港通交易活跃股以及法制环境不完善样本中更显著。上述结论不仅拓展了企业创新影响因素研究，也为实施沪深港通交易制度带来的经济影响提供了来自微观公司层面的经验证据，亦为后续完善该项制度提供了参考与借鉴。     

On the Causality Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note

This study uses a new Granger non–causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to contribute to the debate on exchange rates and stock prices in Sweden. It examines a possible causal relation between these variables in a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results show that Granger causality is unidirectional running from stock prices to effective exchange rates. The results also reveal that an increase in Swedish stock prices is associated with an appreciation of the Swedish krona. Special attention is given to the estimation methodology and the lag choosing process.     

Stock return reversal and continuance anomaly: new evidence from Hong Kong

Using weekly data, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short-term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the Hong Kong stock market. We confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance. The arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits, especially for small firms and illiquid stocks. The anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement. Despite the existence of the anomaly, our results still in general suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is weak-form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases.     

Asymmetric spillover effects between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets: evidence from quantile lagged regression

This article surveys the asymmetric spillover effects between the mainland China-based Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) and the Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index (HSI) using a quantile lagged regression model. Compared to previous studies, this article, based on data before and after the 2008 global financial crisis, presents a more detailed analysis, as we investigate the spillovers in terms of returns, volatilities and exchange rates between the renminbi (RMB) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) throughout the entire conditional return distribution, including the central quantiles, which are closely related to the normal circumstances, and the extreme quantiles, which correspond to the bear and bull markets. First, we find that the return spillovers from its lagged returns or from the other index not only vary across time but also depend on stock state. Second, while return volatility may boost the stock market in a bull market, it accelerates the decline in a bear market. Third, the depreciation of the RMB relative to the HKD does not significantly affect current returns for the HSI, while it negatively affects current returns for the SCI in a bad state after the crisis. The findings presented in this article will facilitate investors’ understanding of the two stock markets.     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

沪港股市动态相关性和大风险溢出的实证研究

本文首先采用时变相关Copula模型对沪港两市收益率的动态相关性进行研究,在此基础上利用BG算法将整个样本期划分为两个不同的阶段,并利用Hong（2001）年提出的风险一Granger因果检验方法分析了不同时段两市间的风险溢出效应。实证结果表明,两地股市收益率的相关性存在逐步增强的趋势,进一步分析表明两市闻风险溢出特征在过去发生了显著变化,风险溢出显著增强。     

Relationship between the trading behavior of three institutional investors and Taiwan Stock Index futures returns

The relations between institutional investors' behavior and futures returns are examined in this study. Evidence suggests that net trading volume by foreign investors and investment trust have forecasting power for futures returns. In addition, the study applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of trading behavior by institutional investors on futures returns over time. The impact of open interest by three institutional investors is decreasing over the recent years. This implies that the value for open interest information from three major institutional investors is gradually declining in Taiwan.