Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners

This paper aims to test whether a given type of process innovation, namely flexible production technologies (FPTs), contributes to increased firm efficiency. Using one-year firm data from the Portuguese manufacturing industry and applying a parametric stochastic frontier approach, individual technical efficiencies are obtained and their determinants simultaneously estimated, using a single-step procedure recently proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995 Battese, G and Coelli, T. 1995. A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function and panel data. Empirical Economics, 20: 325–32.  ). The results support the hypothesis that technological flexibility, measured through the use of FPTs, is important in explaining differences in efficiency. Furthermore, given the specifications of the stochastic frontier function, the null hypothesis that Portuguese firms are fully technically efficient is rejected.     

The bilateral J‐curve: Canada versus her 20 trading partners

There is a common belief that currency depreciation worsens the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run resulting in the so called J‐curve phenomenon. Early studies employed aggregate data and provided mixed results. Recent studies, however, have employed disaggregated data to remove any aggregation bias from their analysis. In this article we consider the Canadian experience and test the phenomenon between Canada and her 20 major trading partners. Using quarterly data and the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error‐correction modelling we were able to provide support for the J‐curve in 11 out of 20 cases.     

Analysis of long-run benefits from international equity diversification between Taiwan and its major European trading partners: an empirical note

This paper employs four cointegration test approaches, PO, HI, JJ and KSS, to test for pairwise long-run equilibrium relationships between Taiwan's stock price index and each of the stock price indexes of four European markets – French, German, Dutch, and British stock markets. The results from these four tests are robust and clearly consistent in suggesting that the Taiwan stock market is not pairwise cointegrated with the four European stock markets. This provides strong evidence that there exist long-run benefits for Taiwan investors diversifying in the equity markets of Taiwan's major European trading partners, France, Germany, Holland, and the UK, over the sample period considered from 6 January 1998 to 30 May 2002. These findings could be valuable to Taiwan individual investors and financial institutions holding long-run investment portfolios in the equity markets of France, Germany, Holland, and the UK.     

The transmission of economic activity : Evidence for the U.S. and its trading partners

This paper assesses empirical evidence bearing on the nature of the mechanism by which economic activity is transmitted from the US to its small trading partners. The cross-spectral analysis gives mixed results, but provides some support for a ‘Keynesian’ view.     

The clean development mechanism versus international permit trading: The effect on technological change

The clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol may induce technological change in developing countries. As an alternative to the clean development mechanism regime, developing countries may accept a (generous) cap on their own emissions, allow domestic producers to invest in new efficient technologies, and sell the excess emission permits on the international permit market. The purpose of this article is to show how the gains from investment, and hence the incentive to invest in new technology in developing countries, differ between the two alternative regimes. We show that the difference in the gains from investment depends on whether the producers in developing countries face competitive or noncompetitive output markets, whether the investment affects fixed or variable production costs, and whether producers can reduce emissions through means other than investing in new technology.     

The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model

This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.     

The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between UK and China

China is often accused of manipulating its currency to gain international competitiveness. Previous studies have tried to address this issue by investigating the impact of yuan depreciation on China’s trade balance. Not only have they failed to establish the link between the Chinese exchange rate and its trade balance with the rest of the world but also between China and her major trading partners. In this article, we consider the China–UK trade balance and disaggregate their trade flows by commodity. Out of the 47 industries considered, we show that the real depreciation has favourable short-run effects in most industries. However, the short-run effects last into the long run only in seven cases.     

The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China

In testing the short-run (J-curve effect) and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance many researchers have used either trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between one country and another trading partner. Both groups are said to suffer from aggregation bias. To reduce the bias, in this article we consider trade data between one country (the US) and her trading partner (China) disaggregated by commodity. We use imports and exports of 88 industries (2-digit and 3-digit classifications) and cointegration analysis to show that the trade balance of at least 34 of the industries react favourably to real depreciation of the dollar. The J-curve effect is detected in 22 industries. Furthermore, most of these industries that are sensitive to currency depreciation are durable commodity groupings.     

The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe

Devaluation or depreciation of a currency worsens the trade balance before improving it, resulting in a J-curve pattern. A new definition of the hypothesis implies a short-run deterioration combined with the long-run improvement. By using monthly data over the January 1990–June 2005 period from 11 east European emerging economies, most of which are the new European Union (EU) members or the EU candidate countries, this article uses the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling and finds empirical support for the J-curve hypothesis in three countries of Bulgaria, Croatia and Russia. The results have important implications for policymakers involved in economics in terms of using exchange rate policy as a policy device to achieve real convergence toward EU standards.     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade

Empirica - Previous studies that have investigated the J-curve phenomenon between the UK and its largest trading partner from the European Union (EU), Germany, used aggregate bilateral trade data...     

The effect of derivative trading on the underlying markets: Evidence from Canadian instalment receipts trading

We examine the impact of instalment receipts (IRs) trading on the underlying stocks' volatility. IRs are a derivative security that evidences the purchase of an underlying security on an instalment basis. IRs have been commonly used to facilitate large secondary stock offerings in Canada and other commonwealth countries. We find that while the trading of IRs generally increases the underlying stocks' trading volume, it generally does not have a significant effect on the underlying volatility or systematic risk. Therefore, the use of IRs in secondary offerings will not destabilize the underlying markets and thus will not adversely affect the welfare of the buyers and the remaining shareholders.     

The dynamics of technological partners: a social network perspective

The selection and establishment of research partners is increasingly important in innovation and strategic research. Using a panel dataset of patents by 2846 researchers from a large US biotechnology company between 1976 and 2013, we examined the relationships between spanning structural holes and partner dynamics, which are captured by the entry of new partners and the persistence of existing partners. Then, we tested the possible moderating effect of dynamic exploratory ability. Based on the results of negative binomial regression models with fixed effects in the longitudinal design, we found that spanning structural holes was negatively associated with the entry of new partners and positively associated with the persistence of existing partners. Furthermore, exploratory ability positively moderated these relationships. Aside from having managerial implications for innovators, the findings of our interdisciplinary study are relevant for research on partner dynamics, strategy research, and exploration processes.     

The relationship between top trading cycles mechanism and top trading cycles and chains mechanism

In this paper, we show that there is a relationship between two important matching mechanisms: the Top Trading Cycles mechanism (TTC mechanism proposed by Abdulkadiroglu and Sonmez, 1999) and the Top Trading Cycles and Chains mechanism (TTCC mechanism proposed by Roth, Sonmez, and Unver, 2004). Our main result is that when a specific chain selection rule proposed by Roth et al. is used, these two mechanisms are equivalent. While the equivalence is relevant for one specific case of the TTCC mechanism, it is a particularly interesting case since it is the only version identified by Roth et al. to be both Pareto-efficient and strategy-proof.     

The affectionate society: does competition for partners promote friendliness?

We study household formation in a model where collective consumption decisions of a household depend on the strategic choices of its members. The surplus of households is determined by individual choices of levels of friendliness to each other. A strategic conflict arises from a coupling condition that ceteris paribus, a person’s friendlier attitude reduces the individual’s influence in the household’s collective decision on how to divide the ensuing surplus. While partners in an isolated household choose the minimum level of friendliness, competition for partners tends to promote friendliness. We find that affluence does not buy affection, but can lead to withholding of affection by an affluent partner who can afford to do so. In general, the equilibrium degree of friendliness proves sensitive to the socio-economic composition of the population. We would like to thank Clive Bell, Edward Glaeser, Roger Lagunoff, Eva Terberger and seminar audiences in Berlin, Birmingham, Blacksburg, Exeter, Heidelberg, Manchester and at IHS in Vienna for helpful comments. We greatly appreciate the thoughtful comments of a referee.     

The profitability of momentum trading strategies: Empirical evidence from Hong Kong

This paper investigates whether momentum trading strategies are profitable in the Hong Kong stock market, and examines the sources of such profitability. Momentum portfolios are significantly profitable in the intermediate term in Hong Kong, but the profits become insignificant after risk adjustment by the Chordia and Shivakumar (2001) model. The stock-specific return strategy and factor-related return strategy are analyzed to examine which portion of the total return causes stocks to enter extreme portfolios. The Chordia and Shivakumar factor-related return strategy obtains profits with a magnitude that is close to that which is attained by the total return momentum strategy. Additional evidence further supports the view that the Chordia and Shivakumar model captures momentum profits.     

The use of trading strategies by fund managers: some first survey evidence

A questionnaire survey has found that most fund managers rely on the strategies of buy-&-hold, momentum and contrarian trading. These strategies are typically applied mutually. Their use is rooted in the attributes and beliefs of the respective fund managers: buy-&-hold traders are fundamentally oriented, risk averse and are less (over)confident than others. Momentum traders appear as the least risk-averse professionals, going aggressively with the trend. Contrarian traders, however, show signs of overconfidence and peculiar risk aversion, both indicating difficulties in successful strategy implementation. The behavioural patterns revealed are not easily reconciled with efficient markets.     

Developing with Foreign Investment: Malaysia

Abstract
Over the past two decades, there has been a decisive shift in trade and industry policy in developing countries (DCs) away from import substitution and towards export-orientation. As part of this policy shift, an increasing number of DCs have become more receptive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite its policy relevance, the literature on the role of FDI in the export expansion of manufactured exports from DCs is sparse. This article attempts to fill this gap through a case study of the role of export-oriented FDI in Malaysia's rapid industrialisation. The overall conclusion of the article is that export-oriented FDI has brought significant returns to Malaysia principally because the general economic climate has been favourable for the internationalisation of production for a considerable period of time.     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K.

ABSTRACT

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.