A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany

This paper estimates a forward-looking life-cycle model of outmigration and labor force participation. The estimated model is used to evaluate the impact of enforcing a maximum stay duration for newly admitted immigrants on labor force participation and outmigration. Restricting the migration duration is found to have little effect on the labor force participation of skilled immigrants, and a negative effect on that of unskilled immigrants. Restricting the migration duration is also found to encourage the departure of unskilled and unsuccessful immigrants before the maximum duration is reached. These results are obtained by estimating the model with data that contain no information on outmigration decisions. It is shown that the assumption of a continuous state variable affecting attrition only through outmigration allows the probability of outmigration to be identified from the panel attrition. This probability can then be estimated using standard dynamic programming techniques. The migration durations so estimated are found to differ substantially from those estimated under the assumption that immigrants are myopic decision makers.     

公司盈余压力与供应链真实盈余管理

随着资本市场投资者与监管者对公司应计盈余管理识别与监管的增强,隐蔽性更高的真实盈余管理逐渐成为公司操纵盈余的主要手段,如何充分识别公司真实盈余管理行为成为实务界与学术界关注的重要问题.文章研究发现,盈余压力会使公司通过供应链(供应商和客户)方式进行真实盈余管理,公司的议价能力会强化而高管持股会弱化上述作用,而且供应链真实盈余管理与向上应计盈余管理在盈余压力下具有替代关系.进一步研究发现,公司供应链真实盈余管理不同于内部生产调整的盈余管理方式,实施供应链真实盈余管理可以提高公司达到分析师预测的可能性,但会在之后年度出现反转.文章检验了公司盈余压力下的供应链真实盈余管理行为及特征,有助于增进外部利益相关者对公司真实盈余管理的理解,提高资本市场的信息传递与资源配置效率.     

盈余持续增长、收入持续增长和盈余质量——基于中国上市公司的实证分析

本文选取净利润连续5年增长的深沪上市公司作为研究主样本,同时将主样本按照主营业务收入是否持续增长分为两类公司,进行其盈余质量的实证研究。以盈余持续性、盈余的价值相关性、盈余和现金流的关联度和盈余披露的及时性作为衡量盈余质量的标准,证实了盈余持续增长的公司的盈余质量水平较高,其中收入同时持续增长的公司的盈余质量水平更高。     

盈余管理与审计意见关系的实证研究--基于非经营性收益的分析

文章研究了中国上市公司通过非经营性活动进行盈余管理是否会影响其收到非标准无保留意见(后称非标意见)的可能性.我们的假设是:盈余管理越高的公司,收到非标意见的可能性越大.我们选取1998～2001年3009家A股上市公司进行实证研究,结果与我们的预期一致,支持原假设.我们进一步还对非标意见进行了归类分析,发现公司盈余管理行为仅仅会增加收到"带说明段无保留意见"的可能性,而对其他类型非标意见的出具则无显著影响.     

Earnings Distributions and Means-tested Benefits

This paper considers the question of whether it is possible to identify labour supply incentive effects of a tax and transfer system using information on only the distribution of earnings. The major characteristics of earnings distributions arising from a simple labour supply model are examined. These characteristics include the existence of modes and antimodes caused by kinks where effective marginal tax rates increase and non-convexities in budget constraints arising from means-testing. Actual earnings distributions, concentrating on unemployment benefit recipients, are then examined. It is suggested that the use of such an approach must be severely limited, in view of the fact that there is no one-to-one correspondence between the form of the earnings distribution and the parameters of a tax and transfer system.     

Lifetime Earnings and Inequality*

It is argued that for many purposes the measurement of inequality should be based on income measured over a longer period than a single year. However, samples of individual earnings over a long period are extremely rare, and there are no data on complete lifetime earnings. This survey examines the wide variety of attempts that have been made to estimate inequality using a longer accounting period Emphasis is placed on the problems of extending the accounting period, rather than the properties of particular statistical measures of inequality.     

Earnings inequality and the business cycle

Economists have long viewed recessions as contributing to increasing inequality. However, this conclusion is largely based on data from a period in which inequality was increasing over time. This paper examines the connection between long-run trends and cyclical variation in earnings inequality. We develop a model in which cyclical and trend inequality are related, and find that in our model, recessions tend to amplify long-run trends, i.e. they involve more rapidly increasing inequality when long-run inequality is increasing, and more rapidly decreasing inequality when long-run inequality is decreasing. In support of this prediction, we present evidence that during the first half of the 20th century, when earnings inequality was generally declining, earnings disparities indeed appeared to fall more rapidly in downturns, at least among workers at the top of the earnings distribution.     

高管任期、盈余质量与真实盈余管理

从高管个人特征的微观角度分析企业真实盈余管理的影响因素。通过选取2008年至2012年沪深两市A股企业,实证研究发现CEO和CFO任期与企业真实盈余管理程度存在U型的曲线关系。同时研究也发现,高管任期与真实盈余管理程度的U型关系,在非国有企业、两职分开的企业以及管理层持股的公司和业绩较差的公司更显著。本文的研究结果表明,高管任期是企业真实盈余管理的重要影响因素。     

盈利预测误差的契约性与上市公司盈余管理研究

文章研究上市公司盈利预测误差对公司盈余管理行为的影响.文章从我国证券市场盈利预测契约特征的特殊性出发,分析盈余管理动机与盈利预测误差的关系,对盈利预测负误差幅度在20%以内的公司盈余管理行为进行检验.研究发现:高估盈利但高估程度在20%以内的公司,在上市后的第一年都或多或少地存在通过管理主观利润和营运资金项目以调增盈利的行为.该结果表明上市公司为了避免由于存在盈利预测误差而受到处罚,都存在着盈余管理行为动机.     

Local labor markets and earnings of refugee immigrants

This paper estimates how local conditions at the time of immigration influence later outcomes for refugee immigrants to Norway, exploiting the quasi-experimental nature of the Norwegian system for settlement for “quota” or resettlement refugees. A unique administrative dataset with assigned settlement municipalities is used to identify the causal effect of initial location characteristics. Being placed in a labor market where other non-OECD immigrants do well increases own annual labor earnings up to 6 years after immigration. Extended models suggest that this effect is not driven by individual scarring effects: when controlling for the contemporaneous employment rate in the assigned region, effects of initial conditions disappear. Rather, the effects appear to be due to persistence in local labor market conditions combined with limited geographical mobility in response to adverse labor market conditions.     

Recession,terms of trade,and immigrants

The current literature does not adequately analyze how economic crisis affects employment of immigrants in host countries. It is generally believed that immigrants lose jobs and return home during recession. We show that recession may instead help relatively unskilled immigrants when it leads to terms-of-trade improvement in the host country, and when the unskilled sector is protected by minimum wage regulations. We also derive the condition under which the income gap between natives and immigrants falls.     

会计盈余管理与公司治理

本文从公司治理的一般原理出发,系统论证了盈余管理与公司治理的关系.在此基础上,运用我国上市公司2004年度的数据,以截面修正的Jones模型估计的操纵性应计利润的绝对值作为公司盈余管理程度的计量,实证研究了公司治理对盈余管理的影响,并就如何减少公司盈余管理提出了一些政策和建议.     

IFRS强制采用与盈余操纵——来自2006年亏损上市公司的经验证据

本文以2006年亏损上市公司为研究对象,研究强制实施新会计准则对亏损上市公司盈余操纵行为的影响。研究发现:(1)债务重组是2006年度亏损公司在2007年进行盈余管理的重要手段,并且是亏损公司在2007年度扭亏的重要方式;(2)2006年亏损公司在2007年除了增加使用债务重组这种方式外,所使用的其他操纵利润的方式基本没有变化,主要包括坏账准备、存货跌价准备、营业外收支、固定资产减值准备、长期投资减值准备等;(3)2007年扭亏公司表现出了利用新准则扭亏与利润平滑并存的特征;(4)2007年继续亏损公司仍然存在洗大澡的现象;(5)在描述性统计中发现了一些亏损公司在2007年存在转回长期资产减值准备的现象。本研究的发现具有一定的监管指导意义。     

Social Desirability of Earnings Tests

Abstract. In many countries, pension systems involve some form of earnings test; i.e. an individual's benefits are reduced if he has labor income. This paper examines whether or not such earnings tests emerge when pension system and income tax are optimally designed. We use a simple model with individuals differing both in productivity and in their health status. The working life of an individual has two 'endings': an official retirement age at which he starts drawing pension benefits (while possibly supplementing them with some labor income) and an effective age of retirement at which professional activity is completely given up. Weekly work time is endogenous, but constant in the period before official retirement and again constant (but possibly at a different level), after official retirement. Earnings tests mean that earnings are subject to a higher tax after official retirement than before. We show under which conditions earnings tests emerge both under a linear and under a non-linear tax scheme. In particular, we show that earnings tests will occur if heterogeneities in health or productivity are more significant after official retirement than before.     

Earnings inequality and unemployment in South Africa

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved together remarkably closely in South Africa in recent years. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Static and dynamic decompositions of earnings inequality by employment status reveal the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the both level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the central importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be reduced.     

债务契约、控制人性质与盈余管理

前期文献基于应计项目操控对债务契约治理效应的研究认为,国有控股公司在债务契约约束下没有显著的盈余管理行为,而非国有控股公司会做大盈余。本文同时从应计项目操控和真实活动操控两个方面考察了债务契约对公司盈余管理的影响,结果发现,公司债务水平越高,两种盈余管理程度都越高。进一步研究表明,国有控股公司负债水平对应计盈余管理无显著影响,但与真实盈余管理正相关;非国有控股公司的负债水平与应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理都显著正相关。这个研究结果是对已有研究文献的一个重要补充,同时由于真实活动盈余管理会使经济活动偏离最优决策而影响公司长远利益,因此这个发现对重新认识债务契约的治理作用具有重要意义。     

社交能力与农民工工资性收入

如何进一步提高农民工工资性收入一直是社会各界广泛关注的话题,在探索过程中,教育、职业培训、户籍制度等因素的影响已经得到了充分的探讨,而较少有研究关注社交能力对农民工工资性收入的影响及作用机制.文章基于2010和2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),从语言表达和人际关系处理两个维度构建了社交能力综合指标,重点探讨了社交能力对农民工工资性收入的影响.研究结果表明:社交能力对农民工工资性收入存在显著的正向影响,并且在两个子维度指标的影响上存在明显的性别和代际差异.其次,社交能力对农民工工资性收入的影响存在显著的"迁移效应",迁移距离越远,社交能力的影响则越弱.此外,随着工资收入的增加,社交能力对工资性收入的影响则越显著.在影响机制方面,社交能力主要通过社会资本效应、职业发展效应、劳动合同效应和信息优势效应四个渠道影响农民工的工资性收入.文章聚焦于社交能力,为进一步提升农民工工资性收入提供了新的思路.同时,研究提出并检验了社交能力回报的迁移效应、劳动合同效应以及信息优势效应,对相关领域的研究进行了一定程度的补充与拓展.     

会计盈余质量与资本结构动态调整

本文以我国2003²012年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,研究会计盈余质量对资本结构动态调整的影响,研究发现:上市公司的会计盈余质量越高,其实际资本结构偏离最优资本结构的幅度越小,资本结构越合理;会计盈余质量的上升会显著加快资本结构调整速度;会计盈余质量对资本结构动态调整的影响存在异质性,企业负债水平较高时,会计盈余质量对资本结构偏离度的影响更加显著,而企业负债水平较低时,会计盈余质量对资本结构调整速度的影响更明显。