The great depression as a global currency crisis: An Argentine perspective

The Review of Austrian Economics - Many of the works that have tried to understand the proximate causes of the Great Depression have emphasized the consequences of maintaining the Gold Standard...     

Technology, demand and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown

This paper argues that the case for real wage growth restraint,and the consequent restoration of profitability, which the mainstreamconsensus regards as a necessary condition for sustained outputand productivity growth, is based on weak foundations, becauseit neglects the negative impact of wage moderation on productivitygrowth. Using a general Keynesian growth model, which integratesa (wage-led or profit-led) demand regime and a productivityregime (incorporating the productivity-growth enhancing effectsof higher demand and higher real wages), the conditions areidentified under which real wage restraint fails to raise outputand productivity growth. The model is applied empirically tothe Netherlands (1960–2000).     

Killing two birds with one currency: Income and fiscal policies in a growth model of a currency union

Building on a two-country Kaleckian model of a currency union, we examine the consequences of balance-of-payments adjustment policies, focusing on the interdependence between the long-run growth paths of member countries. The model separates the short-run from the long-run dynamic, comparing price and wage dynamics in each country in the light of Thirlwall’s balance-of-payments-constrained growth model. We show that by shifting the burden of adjustment to the less competitive country, austerity and wage moderation policies lead to long-term recessionary effects. Only expansionary policies in the more competitive country can achieve the two goals of reducing external imbalances and increasing the long-run growth rate in both member countries.     

The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience

This paper studies the introduction of an exchange rate between Ireland and the UK in 1979 to shed light on the effects of a common currency on the composition of international trade. No evidence is found from time series or panel regressions that the change of exchange rate regime had a significant effect on Anglo-Irish trade. This finding is consistent with previous studies of currency unions between larger, developed countries but conflicts with findings based on more heterogeneous country groupings. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation

Over the past decades, the financial investment of non-financialbusinesses has been rising, and the accumulation of capitalgoods has been declining. The first part of the paper offersa novel theory to explain this phenomenon. Financialisation,the shareholder revolution and the development of a market forcorporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thuschanged management priorities, leading to a reduction in thedesired growth rate. In the second part, the link between accumulationand financialisation is tested econometrically by means of atime series analysis of aggregate business investment for theUSA, the UK, France and Germany. Extensive tests of robustnessare performed. For the first three countries, evidence supportingthe negative effect of financialisation on accumulation is found.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Further empirical evidence

This paper examines the relationship between export expansion and economic growth in a sample of seventy-three developing countries, using data for the period 1960–1978. It shows that in both groups of low- and middle-income countries, export expansion is associated with better economic performance and that an important cause of this association is the favorable impact of exports on total factor productivity. The paper also demonstrates that the effect of commodity composition of exports on the relationship between export expansion and economic growth is substantial in more advanced developing economies.     

Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China

We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces

This paper examines the effect of exports on economic growth based on the data of 30 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 1995. A theoretical model is based on the neoclassical production function, in which exports can affect output growth. It was found that the growth rate of exports and the growth rate of per capita output are positively related; i.e. provinces with faster growth of exports grew faster than the provinces with slower export growth. It was also found that investment in state enterprises was insignificantly related to output growth, while investment in private enterprises was positively related to growth.     

Public sector and economic growth: the Greek experience

Over the past two decades there has been an increase in the relative size of the public sector, accompanied by a decline in the growth performance of the Greek economy. In an attempt to highlight the contribution of the government size to growth, an analytical framework is developed, incorporating the possibility that marginal factor productivities are not equal in the public and private sectors. Econometric analysis utilizing this framework points to a negative relationship between government size and economic growth. This seems to derive, in part, from intersectoral diseconomies generated by the growing share of deft-financed government activities.     

Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods

This article conducts an in-depth investigation into building a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and analysing the Malaysian monetary policy. Considerable attention is paid to: (i) the selection of foreign, policy and target variables; (ii) establish identifying restrictions and improve the estimates of impulse response functions; (iii) assess the importance of intermediate channels in transmitting monetary policy mechanism; and (iv) the way in which the 1997 Asian financial crisis affected the working of monetary policy. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy to study because, following this crisis, the government imposed capital and exchange rate control measures. The overall results suggest that the crisis and the subsequent major shift in the exchange rate regime have significantly affected the Malaysian ‘Black Box’. In the pre-crisis period, domestic variables appear to be more vulnerable to foreign monetary shocks. Further, the exchange rate played a significant role in transmitting the interest rate shocks, whereas credit and asset prices helped to propagate the money shock. In the post-crisis period however, asset prices play a more domineering role in intensifying the effects of both interest rate and money shocks on output, and the economy was insulated from foreign shocks.     

Government spending and economic growth: the G-7 experience

Using ordered probit estimation technique this paper examines the job satisfaction of recent UK graduates. Focussing primarily on explaining job satisfaction in terms of individuals matching to jobs, with the match depending on reservation returns, information sets and job offer rates. Only limited support can be found for the argument that job matching explains higher job satisfaction. In addition, stylizing graduates as a peer group, who form satisfaction levels based on their rankings relative to each other we examine whether or not education quality, which raises peer group status and increases the job offer rate, is systematically related to job satisfaction. The results broadly support the hypothesis that job satisfaction is neutral across graduates of different education qualities. However, our specification tests indicate that ordered probit estimation may not be fully appropriate for identifying the characteristics of those with high job satisfaction.     

Export and economic growth: Further time series evidence from less-developed countries

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of export-growth linkage in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand on the basis of time series data from 1973 to 1993. The empirical results indicate that exports have a positive and significant impact on economic growth when a country has achieved some level of economic development. The result also signifies the importance of liberal market policies by pursuing export expansion strategies and by attracting foreign investments.     

The real effect of currency misalignment on productivity growth: evidence from middle-income economies

There have been interesting perspectives on the role of real currency misalignment in productivity growth. Whereas some studies warn against the destructive effect of real currency misalignment on productivity growth, others simply encourage it, at least, in the form of undervaluation. This paper documents evidence in support of the latter argument for 100 middle-income countries for the 1994–2010 period, using fixed-effects and generalized method of moments estimation techniques. The paper finds real currency misalignment to enhance productivity growth if it occurs as undervaluation; and to hamper productivity growth if it occurs as overvaluation. The paper also finds the impact of real currency misalignment on productivity growth to be symmetric, implying that the size of the impact is independent of the size of the misalignment. Moreover, the choice of the real misalignment measure may matter.     

Quality of life and spatial dimensions of the productivity slowdown

This research is concerned with explaning locational variations in the productivity slowdown within the urban manufacturing sector of the United States. The observed decline in labour productivity growth rates between the 1963–73 and 1973–82 subperiods is explained on the basis of both national and location-specific factors. An explict hypothesis examined here is that quality of life is an important area-specifc influence on productivity growth and related trends. Statistical analyses are conducted whereby either an aggregate amenity index or its individual amenity components are utilized to examine the importance of quality of life differentials. The results suggest that these amenities, particularly environmental quality, may be instrumental in explanining the differncial magnitude of the productivity slowdown across urban areas. Additional findings generally do not confirm the importance of other factors frequently cited as contributing to inter-area productivity differences. A regression diagnostic analysis was performed in order to test the sensitivity of the parameters of an appreciable influence on specific coefficients, out general conclusions regarding the impact of quality of life on productivity growth remain substantially unaltered.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.     

Diversified growth and competition: the experience of twelve large UK firms

This paper looks at the causes and competitive consequences enterprise diversification with reference to the experience of twelve large UK firms. It is noted although the majority of these firms diversified intially for defensive reasons, continuing diversification was often undertaken to enable the firm to maintain a satisfactory rate of earnings growth. In accordance with this goal, most of the twelve firms had acquired market leaders in diverse areas. A second conclusion therefore, is that diversification can add to the total market power available to the firm. The use of this power however, appears to depend upon the management philosophy and nature of resource allocation found within the firm.     

On dollarization and currency boards: Error and deception

A diagnosis of the laws and balance sheets of the monetary authorities in Argentina, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hong Kong and Lithuania is presented. With the exception of Bosnia, all employ active monetary policies and engage in sterilization. Accordingly, they are not currency boards. The methods used to dismantle the Argentine system in 2001, prior to its eventual abandonment, are presented. An evaluation of the Hong Kong system (1997-1998) suggests that its so-called currency board was not a party to counter-speculation in the stock market. Evidence is presented to show how deception was employed by the US and the IMF during the Indonesian currency board debate (1998) as a means to engineer a political regime change.     

Toward the crisis: a Kaleckian-Keynesian interpretation of the instability of growth and capital accumulation in Brazil

This article examines theoretically and empirically the instability of Brazilian investment and growth for the past couple of decades, highlighting the evolution that led to the current crisis. A theoretical discussion highlights the importance of Kaleckian and Keynesian approaches in understanding the semi-stagnation of the Brazilian economy since the 1990s. Empirical evidence shows that investment has increased until 2013, but not to the point of getting the economy back on the track of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric findings are compatible with the theoretical underpinnings of investment activity based on Keynes and Kalecki and suggest the existence of room for activist policies in Brazil in order to stimulate economic activity.