The unholy marriage? Integrating qualitative and quantitative information in Delphi processes

This study analyses the strengths, weaknesses and pitfalls encountered when combining qualitative and quantitative information in a Delphi process and when reporting the results as scenarios or images of the future. The paper draws material from seven Disaggregative Policy Delphi processes conducted in Finland in 1999-2008, in which the authors were researchers or advisors. The cases are analysed in terms of the level of integration and the ways to overcome the difficulties. A learning ‘community of practice’ was created by these afterthoughts and by organising an international conference workshop on the issue. Qualitative and quantitative material was holistically integrated in one case. In the other cases, solutions led to domination of one material type over another but even then the other material did give relevant points to scenario formation. Finally, we give recommendations for tackling the pitfalls: 1) balancing between qualitative and quantitative, 2) balancing between formal structure and questions raised in the process, 3) framing questions to discover alternative future states, 4) paying attention to panellists' style, 5) dealing with lack of data for comprehensive cluster analysis, 6) considering scenario consistency, 7) understanding manager's responsibility and, 8) understanding the epistemological aspects of Delphi data. We conclude that integrating qualitative and quantitative material by using mixed methods to form coherent scenarios is at the same time desirable, possible and difficult - making the ‘unholy marriage’ a worthy adventure.     

Do children of the first marriage deter divorce?

In terms of economics, individuals divorce if their expected gains from marriage fall short of their expected utility outside the current marriage, and children represent a marriage-specific type of investment, which generally increases the value of marriage for the spouses. However, children may also disrupt marital stability as they will induce dramatic changes into the household allocation of money and time. In particular, children conceived before or after first marriage may be valued differently by the spouses and this may lead to marital conflicts. It is difficult to assign a priori the direction of the effect of children on marriage stability, and causality may run either way, as couples who anticipate a separation are more likely to have fewer children than those who are happy together, while children born before first marriage may be associated with a lower marriage attachment of their parents. Here, we follow an empirical approach and take advantage of the richness of the data on pre-marital history from the 24 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth79, to estimate the effect of children conceived before or after first marriage on marital stability. We find a significant deterrent effect of young children conceived during first marriage to the likelihood of divorce, while children conceived before first marriage are found to have a disruptive effect on marital stability.     

The End of ‘Central Europe’? The Rise of the Radical Right and the Contestation of Identities in Slovakia and the Visegrad Four

ABSTRACT

The article analyses the effects of the migration crisis and the parallel rise of right wing parties on national and regional identities in Slovakia and the broader subregion of the Visegrad Four. It argues that the recent right wing political discourse around migration has been reshaping the meaning of ‘Central Europe’ as a normative project and an identity shared by the V4 countries. The post-Cold War narrative of Central Europe was a story of ‘returning to the West’, which in practice meant that normative conformity with the West was a precondition of membership in key Western institution. The situation has changed visibly after the migrant crisis, as the V4 political elites have now been constructing new identities, in partial juxtaposition with Western European liberalism. These new identities favour a culturalist, conservative interpretation of the nation and reject humanitarian universalism, epitomized by the European Union’s decision to welcome the refugees. This arguably devaluates the previous notion of ‘Central Europe’ as a region that seeks to identify itself firmly with the West. Slovakia is chosen as a case study because of the recent success of the radical right in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The article concludes that although the situation of being structurally locked into the EU does not allow the V4 countries to openly challenge its main principles, the V4 political elites pursue a counter-hegemonic strategy, subverting and resignifying some of its key political notions. One should, therefore, speak not of an end of ‘Central Europe’ but rather of its evolution into a new, hybrid stage, where normative conformity and identification with the West will only be partial. The article makes use of Laclau and Mouffe’s theory of discourse and related concepts as well as insights from constructivist geopolitics literature to track articulatory practices of the regional establishments. The study relies on evidence from recent political campaigning in Slovakia as well as official Visegrad Group documents from 2015 to 2016.     

Do focus groups and individual interviews reveal the same information for natural resource valuation?

Focus groups and individual interviews have become accepted methods used in the initial stages of valuation research. Whether focus groups and individual interviews reveal similar valuation information has not been thoroughly studied. The research tests the hypothesis that focus groups yield the same ecosystem service information as do individual interviews. The research also explores how the focus group and individual interview data might differ. The analysis shows that focus groups and individual interviews are not substitutes. They yield different information about ecosystem services and resource uses.     

Does the aggregate production function imply anything about the laws of production? A note on the Simon and Shaikh critiques

The aggregate production function (especially the Cobb–Douglas) is widely used in both applied and theoretical work, in spite of the large number of criticisms of it that have been advanced since its inception. Two related criticisms by Simon and Levy (1963) and Shaikh (1974) are particularly damaing since they have shown that if factor shares are stableanyunderlying technology will generate a Cobb–Douglas relationship. This argument seems to have been largely ignored in the literature or, by implication, not seen as particularly important. The purpose of this paper is to assess and extend these criticisms. New empirical evidence is presented which, it is argued, illustrates the former. Furthermore, it is shown that a Kaleckian mark-up model will equally give rise to a Cobb–Douglas even though, of course, no neoclassical assumptions are invoked. It is concluded that the Cobb–Douglasper se can give no independent corroboration of either the marginal productivity theory of distribution or the assumption of perfect competition.     

Imperfect financial integration and asymmetric information: competing explanations of the home bias puzzle?

Abstract This paper shows that imperfect financial integration and informational asymmetries are not competing theories but rather complementary ideas to a single explanation of the home bias puzzle. We develop a rational expectations model of asset prices with investors that face informational constraints and find that informational advantages arise endogenously as a response to small financial frictions. We also present empirical evidence that (i) international financial frictions are correlated to observed patterns of US investors’ attention and that (ii) the attention US investors allocate to foreign stocks helps explain home bias towards those countries, even after controlling for financial integration levels.     

Ambiguity,data and preferences for information – A case-based approach

We model decision making under ambiguity based on available data. Decision makers express preferences over actions and data sets. We derive an α-max–min representation of preferences, in which beliefs combine objective characteristics of the data (number and frequency of observations) with subjective features of the decision maker (similarity of observations and perceived ambiguity). We identify the subjectively perceived ambiguity and separate it into ambiguity due to a limited number of observations and ambiguity due to data heterogeneity. The special case of no ambiguity provides a behavioral foundation for beliefs as similarity-weighted frequencies as in Billot et al. (2005) [3].     

Hollander, de Vivo and the 'further evidence' for the corn model interpretation of Ricardo: a conspiracy of silence?

This paper reconsiders the debate between de Vivo and Hollanderover the ‘further evidence’ in favour of Sraffa's‘corn model’ interpretation of Ricardo in the lightof Torrens's Letter to Lord Liverpool (1816). It is argued thatthe Letter provides unique evidence of the influence on Torrensof Ricardo's Essay on Profits (1815); and that, contrary tode Vivo, the evidence is not that of a ‘corn model’influence. It is further argued that the manner in which theLetter has been dealt with is unsatisfactory. The shortcomingsin Hollander's position are traced to peculiarities in his long-standinginterpretation of the early Ricardo.     

Region? Why Region? Security,Hermeneutics, and the Making of the Black Sea Region

In the context of post–Cold War European integration, ‘making’ regions has become commonplace. Far from reducing the significance of regional initiatives, inflationary regional labelling draws attention to the significant role played by ‘regions’ as legitimating political vectors. Why are political projects formulated in regional terms? Critically examining the Black Sea region project, this article suggests that region-making transcends the boundary between theoretical and political praxis. Regional entrepreneurs frequently use different conceptual categories in the formulation and justification of their initiatives. In order to understand why regional forms are preferred politically, it is necessary to scrutinise closely this contextual interaction between political praxis and conceptual logic. The article maps the various concepts of region which coexist in the Black Sea region project, and discusses their relationship with four political and hermeneutical strategies that link the regional project with its context, profoundly marked by the logic of European security integration. The ‘double hermeneutics’ of the Black Sea region highlights the contradictory security logics that structure European security in general and this regional project in particular. In the conclusion, the article draws attention to the significant epistemological and normative consequences of the double hermeneutics of the Black Sea region.     

Does asymmetric information affect the premium in mergers and acquisitions?

We test the influence of information asymmetry on the premium paid for an acquisition. We analyze mergers and acquisitions as English auctions. The theory of dynamic auctions with private and common value predicts that more informed bidders may pay a lower price. We test that prediction with a sample of 1,026 acquisitions in the United States between 1990 and 2007. We assume that blockholders of the target's shares are better informed than other bidders because they possess privileged information on the target. Our empirical results show that blockholders pay a much lower premium than do other buyers     

Does the digital divide matter? The role of information and communication technology in cross-country level and growth estimates

The bulk of information and communication technology is made of weightless, implementable, and infinitely reproducible knowledge products (such as software and databases). These products are transferred by telephone lines, accessed through internet hosts, and processed through personal computers. In this work, the coefficient of the labour augmenting factor in the aggregate production function has been estimated using proxies of variables crucially affecting the diffusion of (non-rival and almost non-excludable) knowledge products. This specification provides interesting answers to some of the open issues in the existing growth literature. The most recent information, though available for a limited period, shows that telephone lines, personal computers, mobile phones, and internet hosts significantly affect levels and growth of income per worker across countries. The result is robust to changes in sample composition, econometric specification, and estimation approach.     

Do the Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters provide the same information about output gaps? An empirical comparison for practitioners

I compare the empirical performances of the recently-developed Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters of nonstationary time series, using quarterly data on real gross state product in U.S. states. There is meaningful overlap between the two filters, with average correlation coefficients ranging between 0.60 and 0.97. The Hamilton filter and its more recent modification produce cycles of greater volatility and amplitude than the Beveridge–Nelson filter and appear to outperform in pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises of future GSP growth and inflation (though the outperformance is not generally statistically significant). The Beveridge–Nelson filter is, however, less sensitive to realizations of new data.     

Does the Gender of Top Managers and Owners Matter for Firm Exports?

How are export propensity and intensity affected by gender? Data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys (waves 2006–07, 2009–10) are used in a cross-country analysis to investigate whether export propensity and intensity differ according to the gender of top managers and entrepreneurs. Exporting is riskier than selling domestically and women, on average, tend to be more risk averse than men. Exporting entails costs, and women may have reduced access to finance compared to men. Most firms managed or solely owned by women are young and small and may have more difficulty obtaining credit. Women may self-select into routine sectors with lower mean productivity. Unlike most previous research, here the gender effect only takes into account firms where women have decision-making power. Accounting for the endogeneity of firm productivity, firm self-selection into exporting, and several factors influencing export propensity and intensity, the gender effect operates indirectly via some of those factors.