Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis

Two important problems exist in cross-country growth studies: outliers and model uncertainty. Employing Sala-i-Martin’s (1997a,b) data set, we first use robust estimation and analyze to what extent outliers influence OLS regressions. We then use both OLS and robust estimation techniques in applying the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to deal with the problem of model uncertainty. We find that the use of robust estimation affects the list of variables that are significant determinants of economic growth. Also the magnitude of the impact of these variables differs sometimes under the various approaches.First version received: March 2003 / Final version received: June 2004We like to thank two referees for their very helpful comments on a previous version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

The dynamics of the growth of firms: evidence from the services sector

Using a dynamic panel data model with serial correlation in the error term, the purpose of this paper is to examine if Gibrat’s Law can be rejected for the services sector as it has been for manufacturing. The aim of this paper is also to improve the understanding of the empirical determinants of firm growth by extending the literature to include a new variable related to foreign participation. In addition, and based on recent developments in the growth of firms, our analysis also includes the role of the financial structure. The sample used is an unbalanced panel data set that includes all size classes, including the smallest surviving firms, from the Portuguese service sector over the period from 1995 to 2001. Applying the GMM-system estimator our findings suggest that Gibrat’s Law is rejected for the services firms. In addition, the results also indicate that firm growth is mainly explained by firm size and age. These results have significant policy implications.

Institutions,innovation and growth

This paper looks at the link between the quality of economic institutions and innovation, and innovation and growth. We construct a measure of the innovation content of individual manufacturing industries and show that countries with stronger economic institutions specialize in more innovation‐intensive industries. Our results also provide evidence that industries involving higher levels of innovation grow relatively faster in countries with better economic institutions. The results suggest that innovation is an important channel through which higher quality economic institutions contribute to better growth performance in the long run.     

Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining income levels around the world, using recently developed instrumental variables for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions trumps everything else. Once institutions are controlled for, conventional measures of geography have at best weak direct effects on incomes, although they have a strong indirect effect by influencing the quality of institutions. Similarly, once institutions are controlled for, trade is almost always insignificant, and often enters the income equation with the wrong (i.e., negative) sign. We relate our results to recent literature, and where differences exist, trace their origins to choices on samples, specification, and instrumentation.     

Transaction costs and economic growth under common legal system: State‐level evidence from Mexico

This paper examines the contribution of administrative and procedural transaction costs to economic growth under common legal system. We show that administrative and procedural costs vary quite a lot even within the institutional environment sharing the common legal system. States with low‐cost business registration, low‐cost access to property rights and greater judicial efficiency tend to have consistently higher growth. The established effects are robust to alternative model specifications, heterogeneity bias, and to a variety of control variables that might confound the effects of administrative and procedural costs on growth. Such differences in costs are far from being trivial as we show that these within‐system differences might be instrumental in influencing economic growth. Lower administrative and procedural costs induce growth by increasing investment rate, lowering unemployment rate, encouraging labor supply and improving total factor productivity. In the counterfactual scenario, the transition from high‐cost to low‐cost regime is associated with substantial growth and development gains over time. By exploiting the variation in the disease environment, ethnic fractionalization and historical urbanization, we show that the negative effect of rising procedural and administrative costs on growth and development appears to be causal.     

Research publications and economic growth: evidence from cross-country regressions

The effects of the quality of tertiary education on economic growth have been examined across countries. Professors’ research publication is used as a proxy for the quality of education at the university level. Research outputs in basic science and engineering are found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Economics and business research also have immediate growth effects although the effects are a bit smaller. The results are, in general, consistent with the findings in the growth literature. The convergence hypothesis is also supported by the data.     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

The Austrian Theory of Institutions Applied to Science-Industry Relationships: The Relevance of Innovative Institutions

This contribution aims at using an Austrian approach of institutions to discuss specific institutional arrangements in the current working of science-industry relationships. By combining distinctive characteristics between Menger's and Hayek's research programs, we establish a typology of institutions that goes beyond the usual way to approach business institutions and allows us to identify transitory types of institutional arrangements called innovative institutions. We apply that Austrian approach of institutions and address its relevance to highlight some puzzling issues derived from empirical evidence. Then, innovative institutions reveal particularly suited to understand how public and private research work together in science-industry relationships.     

Trade,Remittances, Institutions,and Economic Growth

This paper empirically investigates the role of trade, remittances, and institutions in economic development in a large sample of developing countries using recently developed instruments for all these variables. Both cross-country (over 30 years) and dynamic panel data (over 5-year periods) regressions of growth rates on instrumented trade, remittances, and institutions provide evidence of a significant impact of trade, institutions, and remittances on growth. While institutions foster growth, remittances hamper it. The effect of trade on growth is positive in cross-sectional regressions but ambiguous in dynamic panel data regressions. These results are indicative of a more important role for trade in explaining growth in the very long run compared with over shorter horizons.     

Multi-scale causality between saving and growth: evidence from China

In this article, we use a wavelet-based Granger causality approach to examine the multi-scale causality between saving and growth for China. We show that significant causality runs from saving to growth for most timescales, whereas multi-scale causality from growth to saving is not statistically significant. Our subsample results suggest that economic systems have remarkable effects on the multi-scale causality. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective to deeply explore the relationships between macroeconomic variables.     

Economic reforms,growth and well-being: evidence from India

This study examined economic well-being of sub-national units in India since the economic reforms. For this purpose, the study constructed well-being index for 17 major states of India for the period 1981–2011 based on five broad dimensions. Our results showed that the economic well-being of states has declined since the reforms. The interstate disparities have increased and the states (except Punjab and West Bengal) which performed well prior to the reforms continued to perform well in the post-reform years too. In addition, our regression results for the high well-being and low well-being states revealed that the reforms have benefited more developed high well-being states, rather than low well-being states. While human capital was found significantly and positively related to per capita incomes in both groups of the states, financial development was positively related in high well-being states, but a negative association was visible in the low well-being states.     

Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China

We investigate whether China’s experience during 1952–2004 supports the balanced growth entailment of the neoclassical growth model. Estimation of long-run relations among output, consumption and investment for the full period reject the balanced growth hypothesis for both the national and regional economies. When the economic reforms of the late 1970s are modelled as a structural break by the methods of Johansen et al. (Economet J 3(2):216–249, 2000) and Perron (Econometrica 57(6):1361–1401, 1989), we find some evidence of balanced growth in the pre-break period but in the post-break period the ‘great ratios’ are trend-stationary, precluding fully balanced growth, though permitting a common (stochastic) productivity trend.      

Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD

We present an endogenous growth model to study the growth effects of the composition of government expenditure and the associated tax burden. When we use data from a set of 23 OECD countries during 1970–2000, our econometric results support the predictions of the theory. The share of productive government expenditure is associated with higher growth, and this result is more robust when we use effective average tax rates and statutory tax rates as measures of the tax burden. With respect to the tax burden, different tax rates have different growth effects.     

The contribution of institutions, trade, and geography to the development process: How robust is the empirical evidence to variations in the sample?

This paper uses an influence spectrum to identify influential subsets in a stylized cross-country data set and finds that institutions, geography, and trade (policy), all appear to play a significant role in the development process for a relatively large sub-sample of countries. For example, equatorial distance, a proxy for geography, becomes positive and significant (originally negative and insignificant) after removing only eight countries or observations from the original sample of sixty-three, while controlling for institutions and trade. In fact, for this set of fifty-five countries all three variables have the correct sign and are statistically significant. As another example, the trade variable becomes positive and significant (originally insignificant) after removing only two countries from the original sample.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Economic growth and carbon emissions: evidence from CIVETS countries

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether a long-run relationship exists between CO₂ emissions and selected variables: real gross domestic product per capita, inward stock of foreign direct investments, gross fixed capital formation, industry, value added and energy use per capita for Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa countries in the period of 1989–2016. We used panel unit root testing, followed by panel cointegration tests and panel causality. The results clearly prove the existence of a bidirectional long-run causal relationship between all the variables except between CO₂ emissions and GDP and CO₂ emissions and GFCF. Major finding of the short-run causality analysis is that CO₂ emission in the short run does not result in changes of other variables. On the other hand, all variables except foreign direct investments (FDI) cause the changes in the CO₂ emissions, and there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and FDI, between GFCF and FDI, and between GFCF and IVA. Finally, positive unidirectional causal relationship also exists, running from GDP to IVA, GDP to ENUSE, IVA to FDI and ENUSE to FDI.     

Choosing and using payment instruments: evidence from German microdata

Germans are still very fond of using cash. Of all direct payments transactions in 2008, cash accounted for an astounding 82 % in terms of number and for 58 % in terms of value. With a dataset that combines transaction information with survey data on payment behaviour of German consumers, we shed light on how individuals decide on their cash usage. We employ a two-stage empirical framework which jointly explains payment card ownership and the use of cash. Our results indicate that cash usage is compatible with systematic economic decision making. Consumers decide on the adoption of payment cards and then use available payment media according to transaction characteristics, the relative costs of cash and card usage, socio-demographic characteristics and their assessment of payment instruments’ characteristics. Importantly, older consumers use significantly more cash than younger consumers. We show that this difference in payment behaviour is not attributable to age as such but largely to differences in the characteristics of older and younger consumers. This suggests that the high cash intensity of older consumers cannot fully be attributed to the role of habit or to their slow adoption to new payment technologies.     

Debt uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from five highly indebted Eurozone countries

The goal of this study is to examine the relationships between economic growth and debt uncertainty by applying the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling methodology in five Eurozone countries spanning the period 2001–2013. The results document that during the European fiscal crisis period, debt uncertainty exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth across all five Eurozone countries that experienced the deterioration of their fiscal positions.     

Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth

This paper develops a structural model of infrastructure and output growth that takes account of institutional and economic factors that mediate in the infrastructure–GDP interactions. Cross-country estimates of the model indicate that the contribution of infrastructure services to GDP is substantial and, in general, exceeds the cost of provision of those services. The results also shed light on the factors that shape a country's response to its infrastructure needs and offer policy implications for facilitating the removal of infrastructure inadequacies.