陕西省农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析——基于C-D生产函数

利用陕西省农业物资消耗、耕地面积以及农业劳动力投入三个指标,运用C-D生产函数模型对2001-2007年陕西省的农业科技进步率和农业科技进步贡献率进行了测算,得出此时间段陕西省的农业科技进步贡献率为49.6%。在此基础上,根据陕西省现代农业发展的趋势性规律,进一步预测出2011年陕西省农业科技贡献率有望达到55%。陕西省农业物资消耗、耕地面积以及农业劳动力投入等要素的平均增长率和贡献份额的测算结果显示,陕西省农业尚处于传统农业向现代农业过渡的阶段,低水平的农业科技成为制约陕西省现代农业发展的瓶颈。     

Imported technologies,urban unemployment and the North-South dialogue

This paper extends the Harris-Todaro model with intersectoral capital mobility to include sector specific imported technologies. Technologies are assumed to be embodied in imported capital goods. The small economy in the South, for which the model is defined, can import any amount of these technologies from the North at given royalty rates. We find that if the North agrees to reduce the royalty rate on the industrial technology, both the level and the rate of urban unemployment would rise and the income distribution change against the wage earners, whereas such a reduction for the agricultural technology would have just the opposite effects. A decrease in either royalty rate would increase the national income in the South, although the magnitude of the increase in income would be larger with reduced royalty rate for agricultural rather than industrial technology. The policy implication is that the South should emphasize the import of agricultural technology over the industrial technology.     

中国农地利用碳排放及影响因素研究:1990—2016年

基于化肥、灌溉、农药、农膜等6方面碳源测算了1990—2016年我国农地利用碳排放总量、省级农地利用碳排放量以及相关驱动影响因素。研究结果显示:(1)我国农地利用碳排放量处于增长状态,年均增长率为3.13%,农业碳排放强度逐年下降,年均增长率为-1.94%。(2)各省份农地利用碳排放与农业产值相关,同时受制于省级碳排放强度的作用。(3)经过因素分解发现,农业就业占比和碳排放强度对碳排放起抑制作用,但在总量上还低于农业人均GDP和人口规模对碳排放的促进作用,因此我国农地利用碳排放呈现增长态势。     

转型时期中国种植业“人—畜—机”投入成本贡献率的实证研究

转型时期,中国种植业中的粮食作物与经济作物的人工成本、畜力和农业装备投入贡献率有较大差异。粮食作物生产中机械装备替代畜力和人力的趋势十分明显。推进中国特色农业机械发展和农业剩余劳动力有序合理转移是新阶段农业发展的关键所在。     

The welfare implications of exchange rate choices in developing agricultural economies

This paper analyzes the appropriate choice of an exchange rate regime in agricultural commodity-exporting economies. In an estimated open economy model that incorporates key structural characteristics of agricultural commodity exporters including dual labor markets and imperfect asset markets, the benefits of exchange rate flexibility are shown to depend on the extent of labor and product market development. With developed markets, flexible exchange rates are preferred as they allow for greater relative price fluctuations, which amplify the transmission mechanism of labor re-allocation upon commodity price volatility. When labor and product markets are not well-developed, however, international relative price adjustments exacerbate currency and factor misalignments. A nominal exchange rate peg, by mitigating relative wage and price fluctuations, increases welfare relative to a float. Given the current low level of labor and product market development across most agricultural commodity exporters, the study provides a novel rationale as to why exchange rate targeting is implemented in many developing agricultural economies.     

人民币实际汇率波动与中国农产品进出口贸易的实证研究

传统的国际贸易理论认为一国汇率与对外贸易量之间存在密切相关关系,马歇尔-勒纳条件则说明只有在＞1的情况下,汇率贬值才能改善贸易收支。本文通过建立农产品进出口额对人民币实际汇率的计量经济模型来验证M-L条件在农产品贸易领域成立与否,结果表明,汇率贬值能促进我国农产品出口额的增加,但贬值对农产品出口增加的作用不大;同时汇率贬值使得农产品进口额也增加,文章最后针对以上情况作简单的原因分析。     

增长“尾效”、要素贡献率及资源冗余——基于农业的分析

重点计算并分析了农业经济增长中资源消耗带来的增长"尾效",以及农业生产的各投入要素对农业经济增长的贡献率,并基于DEA方法计算了各资源的节约潜力。研究发现:由于土地资源、能源和水资源的增长"尾效"存在,因此每年农业经济增长速度会下降1.32%;资本对农业经济增长的贡献率最高,为76.86%,其次是土地资源和能源——分别为1.08%和1.01%,水资源的贡献率仅为0.07%;技术进步的贡献率为22.17%,劳动力的贡献率甚至为负(-1.19%)——这主要是因为农业部门存在大量的就业冗余;1983年以前,冗余量最高的是水资源,其次是土地,再次是劳动力和能源,之后各资源的利用效率大幅提高,但是2002年以后各资源的利用效率停滞不前。     

要素市场扭曲下农业绿色全要素生产率测度及效应研究

基于非径向非角度的SBM方向性距离函数构建Malmquist生产率指数,考虑碳排放和农业面源污染等非期望产出,测算中国28个省份1997—2018年农业绿色全要素生产率,最后采用空间杜宾模型探讨要素市场扭曲下农业绿色全要素生产率空间影响。研究结果表明:考虑碳排放和农业面源污染等非期望产出的农业绿色全要素生产率更符合中国农业高质量绿色发展的实际水平;中国农业全要素生产率提升多数源于农业技术进步,较少出现农业技术进步和技术效率双轮助推的情形;农业绿色全要素生产率呈现增长趋势,但增速较缓慢,且不同地域存在显著差异;要素市场扭曲抑制了农业绿色全要素生产率提升,具有空间溢出效应。     

Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy

The main objective of this paper is to compare the cost of climate policy consistent with the 2 °C global warming target (Paris Agreement target) with the cost of climate change induced agricultural productivity shocks, using a recursive dynamic CGE model for India. The social cost of carbon, in terms of loss in agriculture sector, is estimated to be about 2 percent of GDP, at zero rate of discount, under conservative forecasts of fall in agricultural productivity. In comparison, the cost of climate policy consistent with the Paris Agreement target of 2 °C is about 1 percent of GDP. Thus, there is a strong case for the adoption of ambitious climate policy in India, provided other countries also adhere to the same. Besides, revenues generated from the carbon tax and emission allowance could be a means to support the development and adoption of new energy and agricultural technologies, to increase social sector expenditure and to reduce abatement costs.     

Agricultural productivity,the real effective exchange rate,and structural change: Some evidence from Africa

Agriculture is thought to play a number of roles in the early development process. All of these roles involve fostering non‐agricultural development, in particular manufacturing. It is argued in this paper that agriculture plays a role that has hitherto been ignored. Specifically, if agricultural labor productivity increases faster than manufacturing labor productivity, the real effective exchange rate will depreciate. This depreciation of real effective exchange rate occurs because in very poor countries agriculture makes up the dominant share of both GDP and employment. The depreciation also makes it easier for a country to expand the production of tradables relative to nontradables, with manufacturing being the main tradable. This proposition, which as agricultural labor productivity increases relative to manufacturing labor productivity the real effective exchange rate depreciates, is tested using data drawn from 10 sub‐Saharan African countries.     

中国农产品对外贸易对农业经济增长的贡献--基于1981-2003年数据的实证分析

改革开放以来中国农业经济和农产品对外贸易增长迅速。对二者的相关数据采用出口扩展型总量生产函数模型进行实证分析,结论表明,1982-2003年间中国农产品对外贸易总体对农业经济增长的贡献份额平均为8.19%。虽然平均计算的贡献份额较低,但加入WTO后的最近几年,农产品外贸对农业经济增长的贡献越来越大。由上述结论可解读出若干政策含义。     

基于循环经济理念的黑龙江农用地可持续利用地区差异评价

以循环经济理念为基础构建黑龙江省农地可持续利用评价指标体系,采用综合评价方法对黑龙江省2007年各地市农地可持续利用情况进行定量评价,同时计算评价结果协调度和准则层因子贡献率,并采用聚类分析的方法对各地市评价结果进行分析。结果表明,鸡西市农地可持续利用水平相对较高,其整体协调性较好;哈尔滨市农地可持续利用水平仅次于鸡西市,但整体协调性不高;齐齐哈尔、七台河与黑河三市的农地可持续利用水平相对较低;其余地市农地可持续利用的整体水平差距不大,但制约农地可持续利用的主要因素各有侧重。最后,依据农业经济发展等四个方面的评价结果,对各地市农地可持续利用情况进行归并,针对各类地区地市的实际情况提出农地利用策略。     

中国农业发展方式的评价

本文运用非参数的莫氏（Malmquist）指数法,研究了1978-2009年期间中国农业全要素生产率增长、构成的时序特征及其农业增长方式转变的绩效。结果表明,中国农业全要素生产率在1978-2009年的31年间,年均增长率为26%,农业全要素生产率的增长主要来自技术进步,中国农业仍然保持粗放型发展方式,目前主要处于低度粗放型阶段。在未来农业生产方式转变中,通过技术进步、劳动者素质和生态环境保护来提高生产要素的使用效率,实现农业发展方式的转变。     

农业水资源配置制度改革

我国是一个水资源十分短缺的国家,而且水资源地区分布不均衡,大部分地区存在不同程度的用水短缺问题,与此同时,我国还是一个水资源浪费严重的国家,全国农业灌溉水利用系数大约为0.4,这意味着有60%的水被浪费掉。要想减少水资源的浪费、提高农业水资源的利用率,就要从农业水资源配置制度这个根本问题入手。     

我国农业家庭经营的波动规律与演变趋势

改革开放以来,家庭经营一直受到来自城市化与农业经营环境两个方面因素的外生冲击.按照真实经济周期理论,农户对两种外生冲击预期收益率的变化造成了家庭经营投资费用的波动.首先将改革以来家庭经营波动划分为6个周期,然后运用真实经济周期理论对家庭经营的波动周期、波动幅度与演变趋势进行比较分析.研究结论表明,在新农村建设时期,随着城市化步伐逐步加快,以及政府增加对"三农"的投资、发展现代农业等外生冲击力度加大,传统的小农家庭经营必然向家庭农场制转型.而在家庭经营转型过程中,政府不应干预农户的自主选择,而应通过加大两种冲击的影响力度,引导家庭农场制应运而生.     

The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones

A good harvest usually leads to a collapse of agricultural prices since the price elasticity of agricultural products is relatively low. To stabilize the market and protect farmers, many countries have introduced a target zone policy, together with product purchasing or price subsidy strategies. This article analyzes the effect of a target zone with different strategies operating in a coordinated manner. The results show that a target zone policy with agricultural product purchases does not necessarily stabilize agricultural product wholesale prices, but is able to stabilize manufacturing product prices, if the price effect is smaller than the sum of the wealth and asset effects for agricultural products and the price effect is larger than the interest rate effect for manufacturing products. On the contrary, a target zone policy with an agricultural product price subsidy will generate the “honeymoon effect” for agricultural product wholesale prices, but will result in unstableperformance of manufacturing product prices.     

Policy Bias and Agriculture: Partial and General Equilibrium Measures

The paper examines the impact of industrial protection, agricultural export taxes, and overvaluation of the exchange rate on the balance between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. Various agricultural terms-of-trade indices are constructed to measure the policy bias against agriculture in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and compare the results with earlier partial equilibrium measures. Our results indicate that the partial equilibrium measures miss much of the action operating through indirect product and factor market linkages, while overstating the strength of the linkages between changes in the exchange rate and prices of traded goods on the agricultural terms of trade.     

A general equilibrium analysis of production subsidy in a Harris-Todaro developing economy: an application to India

Since 1950s India has advocated import substituting industrialization policies to promote its manufacturing sector. The end result was creation of a dual economy: highly favored manufacturing sector with high and rigid wages and neglected agricultural sector with low wages and poverty. Because of the higher wages in the manufacturing sector, the rural laborers migrate to the urban sector, a typical characteristic of the Harris-Todaro developing economy. Realizing this crisis, the Indian government recently initiated policies to boost agricultural production to curb the labor migration and improve the welfare of the rural population. In this study, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for India by incorporating Harris-Todaro economic characteristics of unemployment, labor migration, farm dependant population, and labor-intensive agriculture. We use the model to analyze the effects of agricultural production subsidy policies on employment, factor price, output price, output levels, and welfare in agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Our findings show that agricultural production subsidy increases agricultural production, reduces unemployment, raises the wage rate in the agriculture sector, augments the consumption among the rural and urban households, and increases the rental rate for capital in agricultural sector.     

江西省农民增收问题研究

提高农民收入是解决三农问题的重要举措。目前,江西省农民收入现状表现为收入水平增长速度加快,但与其他区域相比仍然有一些差距;收入结构中外出打工所占比例较高,省内各区域农民收入不均衡。造成这些现象的原因主要是农业结构不合理与农产品附加值低,农业经济合作组织发展滞后,农民素质仍然不高和农村金融体制的制约,因此应从调整农业产业结构、深化农村金融体制改革等方面进行改进。     

福建省农业全要素生产率变动原因的实证分析

本文利用Malmquist指数方法,测算了1990—2007年福建省的农业技术进步率、技术效率增长率以及全要素生产率增长率;然后,利用协整检验和脉冲响应函数动态模拟福建省对外开放(对外开放度)对福建省农业技术进步变化率、技术效率变化率的影响,以及对外开放和两者的协整关系,进而说明福建省对外开放对其农业全要素生产率变动的作用。结果表明:20世纪90年代以来,福建省对外开放与其农业技术进步、技术效率变化和全要素生产率增长具有长期稳定均衡关系;福建省对外经济开放对福建省农业技术效率具有促进作用,但对农业技术进步具有"挤出效应"。