延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。     

Why do Households Leave Money on the Table? The Case of Subsidized Pension Products

Abstract

Many individuals only save money in their savings account for their old-age provision rather than investing in more profitable asset classes. That is despite the existence of subsidized pension products, for which smallest contributions can be made monthly, which guarantee the capital preservation, and which offer higher expected returns than saving money in bank deposits. We investigate the determinants that affect individuals’ decision to leave money on the table by not investing in subsidized pension products. Our results show that financial literacy and financial advice are positively related to holding such pension products. In that, our results emphasize the role of financial literacy and financial advisors for sound financial decision-making in increasingly complex financial markets.     

过度自信条件下授权投资组合管理模型分析

过度自信对投资策略及资产均衡价格将产生重要影响,通过构建过度自信条件下授权投资组合管理模型,分析了过度自信对机构投资者授权投资行为的影响。研究表明,投资组合均衡主要依赖于过度自信水平,当代理人理性或者适度过度自信时,可观察到投资交易数量是过度自信水平的减函数,若过度自信水平足够强且努力成本很小时最优投资组合交易数量则是过度自信的增函数。     

金融资产规模、公允价值会计与管理层过度自信

本文以2004-2009年持有证券资产的A股上市公司为样本,对金融资产规模的决定因素进行了理论和实证研究,得到以下研究结论：（1）公允价值会计是上市公司金融资产规模显著增加的解释因素;（2）管理层过度自信在成本计量模式下与金融资产规模只有弱相关性,但在公允价值会计下却与金融资产规模显著正相关;（3）受政府控制的公司、大股东持股比例高的公司在成本计量模式下有显著更低的金融资产规模,但在公允价值会计下,特别是当管理层过度自信时,金融资产规模却呈现为显著增加。上述结论解释了会计理念、管理层行为与金融风险的内在关联性：公允价值计量模式遵循的是价值相关性原则,要求把证券持有利得也计入资产价值和会计收益,这个未来价值理念激励了公司管理层和控股股东的金融投资行为。     

哈尔滨地区金融知识普及教育现状调研报告及对策研究

近年来,中国经济实现了快速稳定发展,GDP逐年提升,人均收入水平不断提高,人们持有的金融资产不断增加,越来越多的人需要对自己的财富进行合理规划。同时,中国的金融业得到迅猛发展,金融服务领域不断拓宽,金融产品不断更新换代。但是,居民的金融知识水平还处于一个相对低下的水平,许多人对金融知识并不是十分了解。基于现状,围绕哈尔滨地区金融知识的普及教育状况,通过调研数据分析得出结论,并提出相应的解决对策。     

Short-termism of long-term investors? The investment behaviour of Dutch insurance companies and pension funds

Countercyclical investment strategies of large institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds can support financial stability, while procyclical investment behaviour is considered as destabilizing at a macro level. Yet, there is limited understanding of how insurance companies and pension funds invest during market shocks, such as the global financial crisis. Investigating the equity and fixed income portfolios of Dutch non-life insurers, life insurers and pension funds, we find evidence for procyclical behaviour by insurance companies (both life and non-life). For pension funds, we find evidence for countercyclical behaviour during market upturns.     

Individual’s financial investment decision-making in reward-based crowdfunding: evidence from China

This article extends the work of Cecere et al. (Appl. Econ., 49(57): 5802–5813, 2017) and explores the antecedents of backers’ decision to invest in projects from eight categories on a reward-based crowdfunding platform in China. We extract data from 2011 to 2016 from the pioneer Chinese reward-based crowdfunding site ‘Demohour’. Our empirical investigation using OLS reveals that feedback score, social capital (followers on Weibo, project sharing on social media) and project quality (number of updates) are key motivating factors in investment decision and subsequently, project success or failure. Robustness tests also confirm the findings.     

资产管理公司:问题与建议

我国资产管理公司成立以来,在不良资产的收购、管理与处置方面取得了一定的成绩,但同时也面临着诸多困难与障碍,为解决这些问题,目前应尽快设立、修订有关法律法规,明确相关主体的关系并规范其行为。其次,把养老金改革与不良资产处置相结合。再次,在具体处置活动中探索采用EVA方法。     

社会养老金金融功能的制度安排研究

社会养老金制度设立方式直接关系到一国经济体系的健康运行和发展.从社会养老金制度的产生和相当长的发展过程中,大多数国家大体上都是采用的随收随支的制度.这种制度一般只从政治、社会的安定等原因而设立的,没有考虑社会养老金制度对国民经济发展的直接作用,社会养老金制度只有社会保障功能.社会养老金制度合理安排金融功能,能够使社会养老金积累规模巨大的长期储蓄资金,促进资本市场的成熟发展,对经济发展产生巨大的推动作用,社会保障功能也得到加强.     

Financial advice and individual investors’ investment decisions

Findings from previous studies generally indicate that relying on advice from financial advisors is associated with investment decisions. This study uses data from the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to mainly investigate three types of advisors: (a) financial planners, (b) accountants, and (c) lawyers. Getting investment advice from financial planners is found to be positively associated with stock ownership, while this relationship is negative for individual investors relying on advice from lawyers. Evidence from this study also suggests that some personal characteristics, such as age, education, risk tolerance may play a key role in shaping individual investors’ investment decisions.     

提高我国养老保险退休年龄的相关研究--财务平衡下对缴费率影响的定量分析

目前,中国人口在60岁时的预期平均余命为16年.为了解决未来老龄化将非常严重的问题,我国将现收现付制和个人积累制相结合的混合制确定为养老保险制度改革的目标模式.本文在部分积累制的财务平衡模型的基础上,定量分析了提高退休年龄对缴费率的影响.最后得出结论:延长退休年龄能有效延迟高缴费率的到来.     

基于过度自信的企业财务决策模型构建及其启示

基于对企业管理层过度自信的界定及其测度,构建过度自信与企业分红政策之间的关系模型,该模型分析了信息对称和信息不对称两种迥异条件下过度自信对企业分红政策、企业现金流及企业外部融资等财务决策的影响机理。我们的研究旨在为企业财务决策实践提供理论依据和现实启示。     

养老金资产的本土化投资偏好分析——OECD国家的投资经验对中国的启示

随着世界各国养老保障体系的完善,养老金资产规模迅速扩大,各国都将规模庞大的养老金资产投资于金融市场进行保值增值。从OECD国家和新兴市场国家两个方面分析了OECD国家养老金资产在进行投资时存在本土化投资偏好的原因。为了借鉴国外养老金投资管理的经验,逐步完善我国养老保障体系,提出一些有关投资管理的政策建议。     

Don’t fear risk,learn about it: how familiarity reduces perceived risk

This article suggests that learning about basic concepts concerning the risk and return of assets will reduce perceived risk. We show experimentally that people who learn about these basic concepts are willing to allocate more money to risky assets and consider the asset’s return relative to its risk.     

美国私人养老基金与高技术产业发展关系研究

20世纪90年代以来,美国私人养老基金与高技术产业发展之间存在良性互动关系:一方面,私人养老基金提供了高技术产业发展的资金来源,促进了美国科技进步和经济结构转型;另一方面,高技术产业发展使私人养老基金获得了高额回报率,提高了退休人员的收入水平,提升了私人养老金制度的参与率。我国作为一个处于经济起飞阶段、刚刚融入世界经济一体化的发展中国家,可以借鉴美国的经验,使养老保险制度在为老年人提供经济帮助的同时,也能够为我国高新技术产业的发展提供有力支持。