Choice sets for spatial discrete choice models in data rich environments

Failure to properly specify an agent's choice set in discrete choice models will generate biased parameter estimates resulting in inaccurate behavioral predictions as well as biased estimates of policy relevant metrics. We propose a method of constructing choice sets by sampling from specific points in space to model agent behavior when choice alternatives are unknown to the researcher, potentially infinite, and differ according to spatial and temporal factors. Using Monte Carlo analysis we compare the performance of this point-based sampling method to the commonly used approach of spatially aggregating choice alternatives. We then apply these alternative approaches to modelling location choice in the Pacific groundfish trawl fishery which has a complex spatial choice structure. Both the Monte Carlo and application results provide considerable support for the efficacy of the point-based approaches.     

A fast estimation procedure for discrete choice random coefficients demand model

We document speed-up gains of graphical processing unit (GPU) computing over central processing unit (CPU) for the estimation of discrete choice random coefficient demand model. When we use a moderate-sized GPU, the computation is six to twenty times faster, where the smallest speed-up factor, six, is obtained from a comparison with the parallel computing over sixteen CPU cores.     

Economic consequences of the Home Appliance Eco-Point Program in Japan: a dynamic discrete choice approach

This study combined a dynamic discrete choice model for air conditioner replacement decisions with an inter-industry model in order to evaluate the economic impact of Japan’s Home Appliance Eco-Point Program, an appliance replacement program that was in effect from May 2009 to March 2011. Focusing on air conditioners produced from 1995 to 1999 and replaced during the period from 2005 to 2013, we found that the eco-point program increased replacement probabilities by 1.5% to 1.9% in 2009. Moreover, the program produced an additional output of 31,337 million yen and a total value added of 21,259 million yen. However, the benefit–cost ratio – determined by dividing the increase in value added by the monetary value of the points awarded for appliance replacement – was only 0.68. From a cost-benefit perspective, the program can be judged not to have been an effective policy measure.     

Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques

In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.     

Homo Economicus,AIs, humans and rats: decision-making and economic welfare

ABSTRACT

Critics of economics often highlight two related issues: the empirical falsity of the ‘homo economicus’ assumption of rational, self-interested maximisation; and the ethical consequences of models based on this assumption. Yet many experiments in biology show non-human creatures often seem to behave as if they were rational maximisers, suggesting that context rather than cognitive capacity is important for determining behaviour. The critique of rational choice poses a less serious methodological challenge to economics than is sometimes thought. However, economists do need to respond to the ethical critique that decisions and policies based on the assumption of rational self-interested maximisation change the norms of individual behaviour for the worse. This paper argues that economics has become divorced from ethics because for a century it has dealt only with ordinal, not cardinal, welfare rankings and has thus ruled out interpersonal comparisons. While enabling economists to separate normative from positive analysis, this separation protocol has left welfare economics both internally contradictory and unable to address major societal decisions, even though welfare economics is used constantly in limited ways, such as cost-benefit analysis. This separation reflects empirically inaccurate assumptions concerning preference formation and the conditions of supply and demand (but not the rational choice assumption) in the foundational welfare economic theorems. Economics must urgently revisit welfare economics, particularly in the context of modern economies in which individuals are increasingly interdependent, and the assumptions required for the fundamental welfare theorems therefore increasingly invalid.     

马尔可夫调制模型下交换期权的定价

在这篇文章中,假定市场经济状态由一个两状态马尔可夫链描述,风险资产满足一个两状态的马尔可夫调制过程。当市场处于高波动状态时,风险资产的价格满足跳扩散过程;当市场处于稳定状态时,风险资产的价格满足几何布朗运动.通过测度变换的技术,得到了交换期权的定价公式。最后,利用蒙特卡洛方法给出了期权价值的数值结果。     

Research on the choice of RMB exchange rate regime

From the perspective of welfare, by synthesizing the normative and empirical analysis, this paper applies the framework of “new open economy macroeconomics” to the qualitative and quantitative researches on the choice of RMB exchange rate regime in the short and medium run. It sets up the structural model, takes the economical data during 1985–2005 to perform both the positive and simulative analysis, and it is shown that: with the increases of international real demand and international price index, in order to improve the welfare of people, the RMB exchange rate regime should be more flexible. __________ Translated from Jingji yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (11): 45–57     

Modelling preference heterogeneity for theatre tickets: a discrete choice modelling approach on Royal Danish Theatre booking data

This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect to the attributes associated with each ticket alternative (quality of the seat and day of the performance). In addition, the willingness to pay of choice attributes is estimated. Final results suggest that customers’ characteristics in terms of age and frequency of theatre attendance characterize different patterns of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket.     

Alternative approaches to discrete working time choice in an AGE framework

We compare two options of integrating discrete working time choice of heterogenous households into a general equilibrium model. The first, known from the literature, produces household heterogeneity through a working time preference parameter. We contrast this with a model that directly incorporates a logit discrete-choice approach into an AGE framework. On the grounds of both calibration consistency and adequate accommodation of within-household interaction, we argue that the logit approach is preferable.     

Non‐discriminatory Trade Policies in Panel Structural Gravity Models: Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations

This paper provides Monte Carlo (MC) simulation evidence on the performance of methods used for identifying the effects of nondiscriminatory trade policy (NDTP) variables in panel structural gravity models. The benchmarked methods include a fixed effect (FE) estimator that utilizes data on intra national trade flows, the bonus‐vetus (BV) and the two‐stage fixed effect (FE‐2S) estimator. The results indicate that only the FE estimates are unbiased and consistent under very general assumptions of the data generating process. The favourable asymptotic properties of the FE estimator unfold as the number of period T increases.     

The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis

We use Monte Carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs. Fuel costs, electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost-minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity. Increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices. Wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases. Risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value-at-risk for both consumers and producers. The optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios.     

Discrete choice model analysis of mobile telephone service demand in Japan

This paper analyzes the demand for mobile telephones including second generation (2G) and third generation (3G) by using a discrete choice model called a mixed logit model. First, we examine the substitution patterns of the demand for mobile telephones and show that demand substitutability among alternatives is stronger within the provider nest category than within the standard nest category in mobile telephone services. The closest substitute for NTT’s 3G service is NTT’s 2G service, rather than KDDI’s 3G service, for example. Second, we investigate the elasticities of demand for various functions including e-mail, Web browsing, and moving picture delivery. Consequently, we cannot observe marked differences between 2G and 3G services based on these calculated elasticities, indicating that it takes time for 3G subscribers to gain proficiency with such new services.      

基础设施PPP模式融资结构优化研究

公私合作模式（PPP模式）越来越多地应用于基础设施建设当中,并逐渐成为解决大型准营利性基础设施融资难题的有力方式。本文首先对PPP辛莫式内涵、应用范围、融资过程进行了剖析,肯定PPP;fJ~式融资优势的同时提出了其应用问题。其次建立了基于蒙特卡洛技术的融资结构优化模型,并对主要影响因素及其作用机理进行了分析。最后通过一个简化算例展示了模型的使用过程,证明了仿真模型的有效性。该模型在融资初期即考虑风险的合理分担,为融资谈判提供了一个较好的基准点,有利于缩短谈判时间、降低融资费用、提高PPP模式的使用效率。同时,通过仿真模型优化GPPP项目融资结构,有利于决策者找到满意的融资结构。     

A discrete choice experiment to determine UK patient preference for attributes of disease modifying treatments in Multiple Sclerosis

Aims: The recent licensing of Disease Modifying Treatments (DMTs) for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has increased available treatment options. The aim of this study was to explore MS patients’ preference for the different attributes of DMTs in the UK.

Materials and methods: Attributes (treatment characteristics) for inclusion in the discrete choice experiment (DCE) were determined through published literature and interviews with 12 people with MS. Seven attributes were selected. Participants were presented with three hypothetical treatment options sampled from included attributes and asked for their most/least preferred options. The influence of patient characteristics and demographics on patient preference was also investigated.

Results: The DCE was completed by 350 people with MS (81% female, mean age?=?39). Results showed that method of taking medication was the strongest determinant of preference (27%; relative importance out of 100%), followed by relapse free rate (21%) and symptom progression (14%). Risk of fatigue (8%) and type of monitoring (6%) were the weakest determinants of preference. Once-daily oral treatment was preferred over all other methods of administration. Participant characteristics did not influence data on strength of preference.

Limitations: This study assumed adequate participant understanding of the discrete choice experiment task, and recruitment targeted those with access to the internet.

Conclusions: These results, derived from people with MS in the UK, should be used to inform individual discussions with patients about DMT choices.     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的商业银行排队问题研究

本文以排队论为理论基础,用蒙特卡洛模拟在Excel上对银行柜台多服务器单队列（M／M／C）的服务状况进行了动态模拟。得到不同顾客到达速率下,银行排队状况和银行为满足一定服务水平应该开设的服务器个数,并对目前日益严重的银行排队问题提出了建议。     

中国金融信托业经营效率评价——基于20家信托公司2004—2008年的经验数据

本文通过将Monte-Carlo模拟理论、结构方程模型理论和三阶段DEA模型理论相结合,选取效率评估指标和环境变量指标,测算了剔除环境变量和随机误差项对经营绩效的影响后的我国20家信托公司2004—2008年经营的真实效率。结果显示:我国金融信托业的真实效率不仅主要受配置效率的影响,还受环境因素和随机误差项的影响,从而验证了环境变量和随机误差对我国金融信托公司经营的真实效率的测算结果存在较大影响的假设。     

A discrete choice experiment to determine patient preferences for injection devices in multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Objective:

Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) is usually managed with disease modifying drugs (DMDs), most commonly administered via self-injection. The aim of this study was to estimate the influence that different treatment-related attributes have for MS patients on their choice of MS DMD device. By establishing the relative importance of these characteristics for patients it should be possible to better understand the acceptability of a given device and to optimize the development of future devices.

Methods:

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey was developed on the basis of a review of published literature. Attributes identified for inclusion in the survey were: ease of use; comfort of use; presence of additional functions, needle visibility; practicality and efficacy. Choice sets were presented as pairs of hypothetical treatments based upon a fractional factorial design. One-hundred device-using MS patients completed the survey online. Analysis was conducted using a mixed-logit approach.

Results:

Analysis of the DCE data revealed that all attributes significantly predicted treatment choice. Efficacy exhibited the largest effect on treatment selection and this provided context for understanding the magnitude of impact for the other attributes. Reducing the discomfort associated with device use and eliminating the necessity for assembly or drug reconstitution were highly valued. The addition of reminder and time-stamping functions, improved needlestick injury prevention, and reduction in device size were secondary concerns but still deemed desirable.

Conclusion:

Efficacy is of primary importance to MS patients, but characteristics of drug delivery devices can play an important role in treatment decision-making. Not all device characteristics could be included, and results are based upon 100 participants only. Findings suggest there is significant potential value in developing self-injection devices that are not only efficacious but also convenient and comfortable to use. Reducing barriers to adherence could potentially translate into improved treatment outcomes for patients with MS.