The Promise and Pitfalls of Restructuring Network Industries

Abstract. This paper examines the competitive effects of reorganizing a network industry's vertical structure. In this industry, an upstream monopolist operates a network used as an input to produce horizontally differentiated final products that are imperfect substitutes. Three potential pitfalls of restructuring integrated network industries are analyzed: (i) double marginalization, (ii) underinvestment and (iii) vertical foreclosure. The paper studies the net effect of restructuring on retail prices and cost‐reducing investment and discusses policy implications.     

Costs,prices and profitablity in UK manufacturing

The 1984 input–output tables make it possible to estimate directly the cost structure of any industrial sector. The results of this calculation are presented for the non-food manufacturing sector for the period 1970–87. This cost estimate is found to be part of a co-integrating set with output prices, in contrast to the specification implied by a Cobb–Douglas production function. The other elements of the equilibrium vector are an index of capacity utilization, positively related to the mark-up, and the variance of inflation (proxying inflation uncertainty), which is negatively related. Import prices have an indirect effect on the mark-up, via demand.     

Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties: tradable emission permits and emissions charges

A major concern with tradable emission permits is that stochastic permit prices may reduce a firm’s incentive to invest in abatement capital or technologies relative to other policies such as a fixed emissions charge. However, under efficient permit trading, the permit price uncertainty is caused by abatement cost uncertainties which affect investment under both permit and charge policies. We develop a rational expectations general equilibrium model of permit trading and irreversible abatement investment to show how cost uncertainties affect investment under permits. We compare the resulting investment incentive with that under charges. After controlling for the assumption that random shocks affect the abatement cost linearly, we find that firms’ investment incentive decreases in cost uncertainties, but more so under emissions charges than under permits. Therefore, tradable permits in fact may help maintain firms’ investment incentive under uncertainty.     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

On the social optimality of make-or-buy decisions

This article examines the impact of input prices on an entrant’s make-or-buy decision and on the subsequent social welfare level for three alternative models of downstream competition. For each particular model, it derives the range of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake: (a) the productively efficient make-or-buy decision; and (b) the socially optimal make-or-buy decision. The main conclusion of this article is that the entrant’s efficient make-or-buy decision is always socially optimal in the case of the Hotelling model, is socially optimal for the set of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake the efficient decision in the case of Cournot competition and is not necessarily socially optimal in the Bertrand vertical differentiation model. Last, this article examines the conditions under which the efficient and/or socially optimal make-or-buy decision undertaken by an entrant fulfills the regulatory two-fold goal of promoting service-based competition and encouraging facilities-based competition. Therefore, this article also provides the optimal access pricing policy that results in the best feasible outcome in terms of social welfare, productive efficiency, competition level and investment level for a given downstream competition model.     

Average-cost pricing: Some evidence and implications

We present new survey evidence on pricing behavior for more than 14,000 European firms, and study its macroeconomic implications. Among firms that are price setters, roughly 75% respond that their prices are set as a markup on total costs, a business practice termed “full cost pricing”. Only 25% set prices as markups over variable or marginal costs. Moreover, using industry data for the U.S., we find that the correlation between changes in output prices and changes in variable input prices is significantly lower when fixed costs are likely to be more important.Since our results are similar to the findings in the classic and controversial paper of Hall and Hitch (1939) and subsequent survey evidence, we believe it worth studying the implications of full cost pricing for macroeconomics. We first propose a problem for the firm where full cost pricing can arise as optimizing behavior. We embed this problem, featuring an occasionally binding constraint, into a simple general equilibrium model. We show that when the model is hit by a shock that makes the constraint binding, the response of endogenous variables is amplified significantly more than it would be under the unconstrained regime.     

An econometric model of production with endogenous improvement in energy efficiency, 1970-1995

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standard four input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due partly to unnecessary waste of energy. In this production process, R&D investment is an additional input in order to improve energy efficiency. It closes the gap between energy purchased and energy used effectively. The more is invested, the less is the waste of energy. With the cost and benefit of R&D investment incorporated in our model of the firm, we analyse the impact of an energy tax on R&D effort, on output and on the waste of energy. The model is implemented empirically by choosing a translog cost function and a set of first-order conditions, using data for the German chemical industry, 1970-1995. In a simulation study based on higher energy prices we found outsourcing as the consequent reaction of the firm- more material is used and less of energy, labour, and capital, given the unchanged output level. There is no indication of a double dividend in terms of environmental improvement as well as higher demand for labour on the industry level calling for a computable general equilibrium approach in order to answer this open question.     

European Integration and Production in the French Economy

Effects of greater European integration on the French economy are explored with an aggregate cost function. Input direct price elasticities are inelastic, but greatest (absolute value) for capital and lowest for imports. Cross-price elasticities suggest inputs are substitutes and are higher for domestic inputs than domestic input and imports pairs. As trade restrictions fall, effects on domestic input demand may increase as substitution elasticities rise. Inverse output supply price elasticities indicate domestic input prices are relatively important factors affecting consumption goods prices and import prices more important for investment goods. Thus, import price decreases may stimulate investment and growth. (JEL F14 , O10 , O12 )     

Incomplete Information, Trading Costs and Cross‐autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper provides an economic rationale for the cross‐autocorrelation patterns in stock returns in the context of a microstructure model in which investors have incomplete information. The paper shows that in a market in which investors are informed about only a sub‐set of stocks, the emergence of lead‐lag, cross‐autocorrelations is a function of the cost of trading in other stocks based on information about the sub‐set of stocks. If cross‐trading costs are high, informed investors will trade only in the sub‐set of stocks they are informed about; if cross‐trading costs are moderate, informed investors will randomize between trading and not trading in other stocks; and if cross‐trading costs are low, they will trade in all stocks. When informed investors trade only in a sub‐set of stocks, prices of stocks with more informed trading will adjust to common factor information faster than the prices of stocks with less informed trading giving rise to asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations. When informed investors trade in all stocks, asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations will disappear as a result of their cross‐market arbitrage trading. These results provide a number of testable implications for lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelation patterns. The data is consistent with the empirical predictions .
(J.E.L.G12, G14).     

The Structural Power of Business and the Power of Ideas: The Strange Case of the Australian Mining Tax

In 2010 the Australian federal government fought and lost an intense and very public battle with the country's mining industry over the introduction of a new ‘super-profits’ tax. The proposed tax was withdrawn and the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, was removed from office. Why did the government lose this battle and what can this episode tell us about the nature and determinants of business power? We argue that business power is not an objective condition but is shaped subjectively and inter-subjectively. What counts in the power equation is not whether business investment is essential for growth or whether business will disinvest if a new tax is imposed, but whether actors believe this to be the case. One reason why the structural power of business varies is because actors’ normative and causal ideas about the value and determinants of business investment vary. In the Australian case ministers did not believe that the introduction of a new tax would jeopardise investment. Ministers did however come to believe that the mining industry had successfully persuaded a large number of voters that the introduction of a new tax would jeopardise investment, employment and growth. This is why the tax was eventually abandoned.     

Real option analysis for effects of emission permit banking on investment under abatement cost uncertainty

The present paper analyzes the investment effects of emission trading scheme (ETS) when emission permits are bankable and there is technological uncertainty with regard to the abatement cost. A real option model is employed to accommodate irreversibility of investment and cost uncertainty. In the absence of abatement cost uncertainty, a bankable ETS reduces a firm's incentive for environmental investment, because the firm can utilize the banked permits for future compliance which act as substitutes for abatement investment. However, when cost uncertainty is prevalent, investment may reduce the opportunity cost of irreversible investment under the banking system, thereby increasing a firm's investment incentive. The condition is derived under which a bankable ETS provides higher investment incentives than a non-bankable ETS does.     

Variable factors and eficiency in the US seel idustry: a Production Frontier Analysis

In an efficient NFL beting market, point spreads incorporate all relevant information contained in past game outcomes. Efficiency implies that trading rules based on past game outcomes should not be able to produce a consistent pattern of winners over losers. This study identifies 15 trading rules based on historical game outcomes and, using simulated gambling, tests them over the 1984–1986 NFL seasons. The study's main finding indicates that the NFL betting market is efficient, but does identify a small set of profitable trading rules over this time period.     

Life beyond the Washington Consensus: An Introduction to Pro-poor Macroeconomic Policies

Abstract

This paper develops a rationale for the recession-induced inflation hypothesis. Within a conflicting claims framework we present a model in which both price leaders and organized workers set their nominal prices on the basis of a desired profit rate and a real wage target respectively. We argue that an absolute cost advantage in concentrated industries (for instance in fixed costs) may provide oligopolistic leaders sufficient margin to raise prices and restore a desired level of profitability during a recession. The resultizng unstable income distribution will set off an inflationary spiral if the firm's advantage in selling its output imparts an upward bias to the flexibility of input prices (specifically wages). Taking into consideration different scenarios for workers' bargaining power we present a simple simulation experiment to analyze the inflation and real wage paths of the economy after a negative output shock. When we endogenize output, we show that for a high degree of the bargaining power, output is likely to converge to a higher steady-state value.     

Information Linkages between Chinese and World Copper Futures Markets

In this paper, we examine the price discovery process and volatility spillover effects in informationally linked futures markets. Using synchronous trading information from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the London Metal Exchange (LME) for copper futures from 2000 to 2012, we show that the cointegration relationships of these futures markets changed during 2006–2008. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between the LME and NYMEX and the SHFE, with a stronger effect from the LME and NYMEX to the SHFE (versus the effect from the SHFE to the LME and NYMEX) prior to 2006. Our results also highlight the increasingly prominent role of the SHFE in the price formation process and cross-volatility spillover effects since 2008. Finally, we show that volatility spillover has important implications for constructing optimized portfolios for copper investors.     

Sunk costs and fairness in incomplete information bargaining

We study a bilateral trading relationship in which one agent, the seller, can make a nonrecoverable investment in order to generate potential gains from trade. Afterwards, the seller makes a price offer that the buyer can either accept or reject. If agents are fairminded, sellers who are known by the buyer to have high investment costs are predicted to charge higher prices. If the investment cost is private information, low-cost sellers should price more aggressively and high-cost sellers less aggressively than under complete information, giving rise to disagreement and/or underinvestment. Our experiment support these predictions.     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Calculating the real return on a sovereign wealth fund

We present a new methodology for calculating the real return on sovereign wealth funds (SWF) that share the investment objective of maximizing international purchasing power in terms of goods and services. Specifically, we modify the traditional approach for deflating the nominal return along three dimensions: the aggregator formula, the measure of international prices and the weighting scheme. We argue that a geometric average of price levels is an appropriate aggregator formula for capturing the deflationary effects of imports increasingly originating from low‐cost countries, and that import prices paid by the SWF owner and weights reflecting the owner's import pattern are consistent with the investment objective. Our proposed approach, using the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global as an illustration, raises the estimated average annual real rate of return over the sample period of 1998–2012 from 3.1% to 4.9%.     

Concurrent trading in two experimental markets with demand interdependence

Summary. We report results from fifteen computerized double auctions with concurrent trading of two commodities. In contrast to prior experimental markets, buyers' demands are induced via CES earnings functions defined over the two traded goods, with a fiat money expenditure constraint. Sellers receive independent marginal cost arrays for each commodity. Parameters for buyers' earnings functions and sellers' costs are set to yield a stable, competitive equilibrium. In spite of the complexity introduced by the demand interdependence, the competitive model is a good predictor of market outcomes, although prices tend to be above (below) the competitive prediction in the low-price (high-price) market.     

Revisiting the accelerator principle in a world of uncertainty: Some empirical evidence

This contribution builds on the accelerator model to produce an investment function in which employment and households' investment are used as proxies for economic activity. This analysis identifies a positive correlation between corporate investment in fixed assets and households' investment in dwellings. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries for the period 1970–2010, the results also confirm that oil prices and interest rates may dampen firms' investment in fixed assets. An interesting feature of this investment function is that it accounts for uncertainty.     

Politics,institutions, and outcomes: Electricity regulation in Argentina and Chile

Risk, whether market or political, is an important determinant of private investment decisions. One important risk, subject to control by the government, is the risk associated with the hold-up problem: governments can force utilities to shoulder burdensome taxes, to use input factors ineffectively, or to charge unprofitable rates for their service. To attract private investment governments must be able to make commitments to policies that are nonexpropriative (either to contracts that guarantee very high rates of return or to favorable regulatory policies). These commitments, of course, must be credible.

Judgments about the credibility of commitments to regulatoty policies are based upon two political factors: regulatory predictability and regime stability. Regulatory predictability implies that the regulatory process, in which prices and levels of service are set, is not arbitrary. If the condition of regulatory predictability holds, then investors can forecast their returns over time and hence can calculate the value of their investment. If there is regime stability, then there is minimal risk of wholesale changes in the way the government regulates the industry—the most extreme type of change being the denial of property rights, or expropriation. We argue that three characteristics of the regulatory process are, in turn, important determinants of regulatory predictability: agenda control, reversionary regulatory policy, and veto gates. Moreover, regime stability is also, in part, a function of these three characteristics. We examine our theory of political risk and regulatoty commitment by comparing the cases of Argentine and Chilean electricity investment and regulation.