北京市二手住宅价格影响机制--基于多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)的研究

文章基于多尺度地理加权回归研究北京市2011-2017年二手住宅交易的价格特征,结果表明:①以往基于经典地理加权回归模型的研究可能存在一定的不稳健,而多尺度地理加权回归可以将不同变量对于因变量的影响尺度反映出来,其回归的结果更为可靠。②北京房价对区位因素非常敏感,且存在高度的空间异质性,区位的影响尺度是所有变量中最小的,接近于街道尺度。而卧室数量和到最近地铁站的距离为全局尺度的变量,在空间上的影响较为平稳。到公交站的距离、到小学的距离、建筑结构和装修状况对于房价的影响不显著。其他显著的变量均存在一定的空间异质性,其空间尺度由小到大分别为成交时间、面积、楼龄、楼层、朝向。③区位、朝向、卧室数量、成交时间均正向影响房价,而面积、楼龄、楼层、到地铁站的距离负向影响房价。所有影响因素中区位是影响房价的最主要因素,其次是成交时间朝向。面积成交时间、朝向和到最近地铁站的距离影响较大,所在楼层、卧室数量对于房价的影响较小,而面积和楼龄的影响最弱。     

中国城镇居民住房销售面积的多因素分析

自20世纪90年代以来,中国房地产业持续高速发展,并且成为了中国经济发展的引擎和典型性支柱产业。近年来城市房价涨得过快、房价过高,已是一个不争的事实。根据目前房地产业的状况,从计量经济学的角度解释说明居民平均货币工资,商品房屋销售住宅均价,房地产开发建设竣工房屋面积,国民生产总值对商品住宅房屋销售总面积的影响程度,继而从中发现值得深思的问题。     

The external cost of asbestos in the housing market

This study uses a Generalized Method of Moments spatial error hedonic model to estimate the potential impact of asbestos on residential property prices. The analysis examines a large sample of 32,403 housing sales occurring between 2008 and 2015 in a fast-growing Coastal Alabama region. Results indicate the presence of asbestos depreciates house values by 13.44%, translating into an external cost of approximately $25,300 per property.     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

Measuring the impact of crime on house prices

This paper uses data on over 2800 house sales in Jacksonville, FL to estimate the impact of crime on house prices. A GIS programme is used to develop neighbourhood characteristics that are unique to each observation. Crime data, available for 89 police beats are assigned to each observation. Weighting the seriousness of offences by the cost of crime to victims is used as an alternative to the customary measures of the number of index crimes. The cost of crime has virtually no impact on house prices overall, but homes are highly discounted in high crime areas.     

Pre‐sale information and hammer prices for Australian Indigenous art

Using sales data from 1987–2011 we investigate the role that pre‐sale price information plays in determining hammer prices for Australian Indigenous artworks. Importantly, we control for the degree of market concentration as this might influence buyers’ perceptions of fairness in relation to price estimates which are provided by auction houses. Auction houses therefore act as important intermediaries between art sellers and art buyers. The results suggest that pre‐sale estimates and market concentration have a differential impact on hammer prices, depending on the point in the conditional realised price distribution under examination.     

THE EFFECT OF OPEN SPACES ON A HOME'S SALE PRICE

The relationship between a home's sale price and its proximity to different open spaces types is explored using a data set comprised of single-family home sales in the city of Portland, within Multnomah County, between 1990 and 1992. Homes located within 1,500 feet of a natural area park, where more than 50% of the park is preserved in native and/or natural vegetation, are found to experience, on average, the largest increase in sale price. The open space size that maximizes a home's sale price is calculated for each open space type. Natural area parks require the largest acreage to maximize sale price, and specialty parks are found to have the largest potential effect on a home's sale price. A zonal approach is used to examine the relationship between a home's sale price and its distance to an open space. Natural area parks and specialty parks are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on a home's sale price for each zone studied. Homes located adjacent to golf courses (within 200 feet) are estimated to experience the largest increase in sale price due to open space proximity although the effect drops off quickly as distance from the golf course increases.     

House price dynamics: Evidence from Beijing

To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.     

The value of remoteness: a hedonic estimation of ranchette prices

Throughout the western United States, production ranches are being subdivided into recreation-oriented ‘ranchettes’. This change has dramatic impacts on local environmental and economic viability. Ranchettes fall in a gap in the economic literature between production agriculture and residential uses. This paper presents the first hedonic model for ranchettes, introducing the use of remote sensing vegetative indices and the use of sale status of adjacent ranchettes as explanatory variables. Parcel level sale data in Yavapai County, Arizona is combined with satellite greenness indices. It is found that increased greenness raises sale prices. Access to roads, cities, and neighbors also increase sale prices, implying that isolation is a disamenity and that it may be beneficial for policymakers to encourage ranchette grouping.     

Ready to run: price determinants of thoroughbreds from 2 year olds in training sales

This article utilizes data from the complete set of U.S. thoroughbred 2-year-old in-training sales held in 2013 and estimates the determinants of prices for 1806 two-year-old thoroughbreds. The results reveal that the time in which these prospective racehorses run a standardized distance is the most statistically significant determinant of market price. Other individual horse characteristics, pedigree quality variables and sale quality are also found to be price determinants. An additional result of interest is the significant premium buyers are willing to pay for horses by sires of unknown quality.     

A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?

Shifts in credit supply could have a bearing on house prices e.g. through financial innovations and changes in regulation independently of the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy. This paper assesses the responses of US house prices to an exogenous credit supply shock and compares them with the effects from variations in credit supply associated with a bank lending channel. The contribution of the study is twofold. First, innovations in credit supply are identified using a mortgage mix variable, thereby accounting for the market-based financial intermediaries. As a robustness check a survey variable of bank lending standards for mortgage loans is also used. Second, the policy-induced credit supply effect on house prices is disentangled and compared with the effect from an exogenous credit supply shock. It is shown that in the first 3 years credit supply shocks affect house prices exogenously rather than through the bank lending channel. Monetary policy has still a large impact on house prices, even when the bank lending channel is ‘turned off’.     

A Spatial Hedonic Approach to Assess the Impact of Swine Production on Residential Property Values

A spatial hedonic model is developed to assess monetary harm of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) on property values, taking explicitly into account spatial dependence in property values. Spatial autocorrelation was found in the form of spatial lag dependence, not spatial error dependence. When spatial lag dependence is explicitly taken into account, on average the impact coefficient estimate of a CAFO is reduced by 18%. For example, the impact on the value of the median house ($63,520) 1 mile from a swine facility with 10,000 head fell from  − $6,800 to  − $5,200, or 23.5%. The magnitude of the spatial autoregressive parameter was about 0.2 for the 1-mile distance band, meaning one-fifth of the house value could be explained by the values of the neighboring houses.     

Art in Africa: Hedonic price analysis of the South African fine art auction market, 2009–2014

Real asset markets are characterized by illiquidity and heterogeneous assets, presenting challenges to price estimators. Use of a new dataset of 7,553 auction fine art lots brought to market in South Africa, for 2009–14, allows us to examine the full sales hedonic price estimator over a wide set of characteristics. Results validate full sale hedonic pricing: Identities of artists, medium and genre, dating characteristics, and physical characteristics of artwork are significant. External validity of hedonic pricing is supported by out-of-sample price prediction for 40 individual artists. Auction house catalogue presentation of art work also proves correlated with realized auction prices. Art as an asset finds support: art prices move countercyclically with GDP and domestic equity markets, pro-cyclically with off-shore equity markets, implying a risk diversification role. JEL Codes: D1, L8. Keywords: hedonic price equation, art market, South Africa Word Count: 9467 (including all Tables, Figures, References).     

Location decisions under uncertainty and the urban model

This letter uses a simple urban model to analyze the impact of random transportation costs on residential location decisions of households. It is shown that such uncertainty steepens the fall of land prices with distance from the CBD and can, in a specific example, cause an increase in optimal city size.     

Innovation and price: the case of digital cameras

This study examines a hedonic regression model of digital camera prices using data collected from an internet price comparison service. We find that a small number of product characteristics explains most of the variation in camera prices. In addition, the model demonstrates substantial downward pressure on camera prices during the time period considered. We also examine technological innovation shocks to determine their impact on product prices. We find that the corresponding price reaction exhibits gradual adjustment over time, providing evidence of some degree of anticipation of the innovation, as well as a post-innovation price shock. This study also demonstrates the power of web-based shopping services as a new and novel source of data for econometric analysis.     

房价、房价偏离与溢出效应：来自珠江三角洲的经验证据

利用国外较新的PMG估计法,探讨影响珠江三角洲商品房均衡价值的因素及房价偏离,并采用脉冲响应函数分析房价偏离在不同城市间的溢出效应。随着收入和人口的增加,房价加速上涨;经济越发达的城市,房价收入比越大,房价的增长速度更快、波动更为剧烈。人均可支配收入是推动房价上涨最重要的长期因素,通货膨胀次之,贷款最小;但贷款、通货膨胀是主要的短期推动力。虽然珠江三角洲地区房价总体上没有明显的泡沫,但波动很剧烈,一旦发生调整,其幅度将很大。除江门外,其他城市只对深圳房价偏离的冲击做出响应,而深圳对其他城市房价偏离的冲击没有响应;江门房价更多的受到来自中山和珠海的影响,深圳是珠江三角洲房价波动的源头。     

PRICE,PRODUCT QUALITY,AND EXPORTER DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

This article develops a model of heterogeneous firms that endogenously choose prices and product quality to build demand in export markets. New exporters optimally charge relatively low prices and produce low‐quality goods upon entry. Product quality, prices, and sales increase as demand grows. We structurally estimate model parameters using Chinese customs data. The estimated incentive to build future demand reduces average export prices by 0.7% and increases export sales by 4% upon entry. Endogenous demand accumulation causes estimated export prices, product quality, and sales to grow by 2.2%, 12%, and 79%, respectively, over the following five years.     

城市化对房价的影响:线性还是非线性?——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析

文章从线性和非线性两个角度分析了中国城市化进程对房价的影响。通过对各省历年房价和城市化的核密度估计空间分布分析,发现城市化和房价之间存在明显的正相关性,并且各省份的城市化和房价水平存在"双峰"分布特征和空间相关性。这说明在分析城市化对房价的影响时应考虑可能的门限效应和空间溢出效应这两种非线性关系。据此,文章基于中国30个省份1998-2009年的面板数据,使用普通面板回归、空间面板回归、门限面板回归和平滑门限面板回归这四种模型进行分析发现,城市化水平对本地区和相邻地区的房价均具有显著的促进作用,且在经济增长水平较高、人力资本集聚的地区,城市化对房价的促进作用更加显著。     

金融冲击与房地产市场波动*——一个宏观分析框架及中国的经验证据

本文从总量宏观分析的视角,提出了金融变量与房地产市场的“总体冲击—传导机制”假说,据此用中国的数据构建金融状况指数（包含房价的FCI1和不包含房价的FCI2）,再对金融状况指数（FCI1和FCI2）与房地产指数做实证分析。研究发现,在资产价格中房价比股价更能反映一国的金融状况;在引入金融状况指数的金融变量中,利率与房价的相关性最强;房价和利率对总产出的影响周期更长。国房景气指数、房地产投资指数和房价指数对FCI冲击的响应显著,并存在不同的表现。由于房价对居民财富、金融状况和宏观经济的影响显著,货币政策理应干预房价,必须精准把握干预的时机和干预的力度以及注重多种货币政策工具的有效搭配使用。     

The amenity value of climate change across different regions in the United States

This article estimates the effect of climatic variables on house prices near ski resorts in different regions in the United States. We find that among the climate variables we test, average winter temperature has the most significant and robust effect where an increase in this climate variable increases house prices near ski resorts at a decreasing rate. At the mean average winter temperature levels, an increase in average winter temperature reduces housing prices for all regions except the Northeast. The consumer surplus from projected average winter temperature changes is negative across all regions and the largest negative effects are in the Midwest and Mountain regions.