Optimal gasoline hedging strategies using futures contracts and exchange-traded funds

This article employs a variety of econometric models (including OLS, VEC/VAR, DCC GARCH and a class of copula-based GARCH models) to estimate optimal hedge ratios for gasoline spot prices using gasoline exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and gasoline futures contracts. We then compare their performance using four different measures from the perspective of both their hedging objectives and trading position using four different measures: variance reduction measure, utility-based measure and two tail-based measures (value at risk and expected shortfall). The impact of the 2008 financial market crisis on hedging performance is also investigated. Our findings indicate that, in terms of variance reduction, the static models (OLS and VEC/VAR) are found to be the best hedging strategies. However, more sophisticated time-varying hedging strategies could outperform the static hedging models when the other measures are used. In addition, ETF hedging is a more effective hedging strategy than futures hedging during the high-volatility (crisis) period, but this is not always the case during the normal time (post-crisis) period.     

实证分析:盈余管理的市场反应

采用可以反映上市公司盈余管理的可操纵性应计利润指标建立套利组合模型检验了我国2001-2003年A股上市公司可以获得超额持有报酬率,从而证明了市场不能识破上市公司的盈余管理行为的假说。     

Main banks’ influence on financial reporting quality in Japan

This study investigated main banks’ influence on the quality of accounting firms’ audits and corporate firms’ earnings, focusing on companies on Japan’s Nikkei 500 index. We posed three questions in this research study about main banks’ influence on corporate clients’ earnings management. First, does a weakened main bank relationship influence corporate clients’ financial reporting quality? Second, does Japan’s firewall deregulation influence firms’ earnings quality? Finally, does the relationship between accounting firms and main banks affect client firms’ earnings quality? Our main findings were that main banks are not related to client firms’ earnings management; however, main banks mitigate client firms’ earnings management after firewall deregulation. On the other hand, firewall deregulation does motivate firms to manipulate their earnings management. Finally, using Pong and Kita’s (2006) study as a framework, we found that main banks and client firms using the same accounting firms had no influence on earnings management. Based on these evidences presented, our findings suggest that the quality of corporate clients’ financial reporting changes before and after firewall deregulation.     

Exchange rate exposure: Evidence from China

This paper examines exchange rate exposure using a sample of Chinese firms. To measure RMB exchange rate volatility and jump risk, we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to the industry‐specific nominal effective exchange rate (I‐NEER) for 13 Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2001 to 2017, We find that exchange rate risks do affect firm value at the industry level, and the effect is more significant for the jump risks that are more difficult to hedge and in the sample period when hedge activities are less likely to occur. Our results suggest that the exposure puzzle could be a result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging. Firm‐level analysis finds that exchange rate risk affects firm value for more than 20% of Chinese firms, and a firm's exchange rate exposure varies with the firm's characteristics.     

Applying digital analysis to detect fraud: an empirical analysis of US marine industry

Firms have tendency to window dress their financial statements by reporting earnings to achieve reference points represented by N × 10 ^k . Such practice of reporting rounded earnings is likely due to (1) firms may believe that investors perceive a reported earnings of $1.99 million to be significantly less than $2.0 million; and/or (2) contracts between firms and stakeholders are likely to express earnings in round numbers. Auditors have employed more sophisticated digital analysis such as Benford's law, as part of their fraud detection processes. This study investigated the window dressing behaviour among firms in the US marine industry. The findings of the study suggest that window dressing is a significant practice among the marine firms. However, the extent of the pervasiveness of such behaviour is less severe among marine firms than among all publicly-listed firms in the entire US economy, suggesting that the quality of financial statements of marine companies is higher than the overall population of public companies.     

Directors network centrality and earnings quality

This study examines whether firms with network central boards of directors behave differently from other firms in terms of financial reporting quality. We find that earnings quality among firms is low when board networks are channels of incorrect information transmission (including earnings management information) and for firms whose directors are awarded equity-based compensation have connections through boardroom networks, but earnings quality is better for firms with good performance in spite of their networks. These results are robust to controlling for firm information environment, growth, size, age, leverage, performance, volatility in firm operations, and corporate governance.     

The optimal shape of compensation contracts with earnings management

The research question of why earnings management occurs is decomposed into two questions in this article: Which component of executive compensation generates incentives for earnings management? and Why is the compensation structured that way in the first place? We first use as a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model to show that ‘big bath’ and earning overstatement can co-exist as equilibrium financial reporting strategies when thresholds are used in compensation contracts. In order to understand the use of performance thresholds as a prevailing compensation strategy in practice, we then derive the optimal compensation contract when the manager is privately informed about economic earnings and his expertise in managing earnings. Equilibria exist in which the inactive region below a threshold in compensation should be economically significant.     

The relations among accounting conservatism,institutional investors and earnings manipulation

Most scholars have indicated corporations using accounting conservatism to reduce earnings manipulation, although certain scholars believe that firms have more incentive to increase earnings manipulation. Institutional investors play an important external monitoring role, and affect firm's earnings manipulation. Previous studies adopted accruals as an earnings manipulation proxy to detect the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation. We further investigate the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation by using Benford's law. Our results indicate that firms with more conservative financial reporting have less probability of engaging in earnings-manipulative activities. We also find the negative association between earnings management and institutional investor shareholdings. However, if corporate financial statements tend toward conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings could increase managers' incentive to manage earnings. Our findings have important implications for investors to make investment decisions.     

Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios

The effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London. Using both constant and dynamic hedge ratios, it is found that in and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness is different across regional bunker markets. The most effective futures instruments for out of sample hedging of spot bunker prices in Rotterdam and Singapore are the IPE crude oil futures, while for Houston it is the gas oil futures. Differences in hedging effectiveness across regional markets are attributed to the varying regional supply and demand factors in each market. In comparison to other markets, the cross-market hedging effectiveness investigated in the bunker market is low.     

Earnings management by firms announcing earnings after SEC filing

This study examines motivation and stock market reactions of firms announcing earnings in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) after filing with the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). Most firms announce earnings in the WSJ before SEC filing. Firms that reverse this sequence are voluntarily delaying public earnings announcements. The authors find that these firms are not only poor financial performers but also engage in earnings managements. They are delaying their WSJ announcements to postpone announcing bad news. The authors find significant stock price reactions to both the SEC filing and the WSJ announcement. The price reaction to earnings is incomplete at the SEC filings. The market continues reacting to firms' subsequent WSJ announcements as if the SEC filing fails to communicate earnings information to some investors.     

Managing portfolio risk in strategic technology management: evidence from a panel data-set of the world's largest R&D performers

In this article, we analyze the impact of firms’ technology bases on their financial performance. By taking a strategic perspective of technology, we argue that it is not sufficient to analyze only the size or novelty/quality of the technology base as technology bases can best be understood as portfolios of individual technologies. In such a framework, risk consideration should be taken into account. More specifically, we argue that increasing technological breadth can serve as a hedge against the inherent uncertainties of developing and commercializing technology, in particular when the technology base is very large or novel. We also propose that technology has higher impacts on financial performance for firms with broader technology portfolios. A similar argument proposes that technological breadth can offset the increased risks of addressing foreign markets. We test our hypotheses using an international panel data-set of large R&D-performing firms. Our results suggest that broad technology portfolios can indeed serve as a hedge against technological and commercialization risks.     

Australian financial firms’ exposures to the level,slope, and curvature of the interest rate term structure

This study examines the risk exposure of Australian financial firms to changes in the term structure of interest rates. Non-linearity in the interest rate term structure is captured by the three-factor model of interest rate level, slope, and curvature. We observe that financial firms have negative exposures to the interest rate level, while non-financial firms have positive exposures. This finding suggests that financial firms need to hedge against rising interest rates, while non-financial firms need to hedge against falling interest rates. Small banks and insurance companies have a positive risk exposure to the slope factor, while real estate firms have a negative risk exposure to the curvature factor. Though the interest rate level is the most important factor, ignoring the slope and curvature factors could lead to underestimating a financial firm’s overall interest rate risk exposure. These findings are robust to controlling for the orthogonalized market return, time-varying equity risk premium, and the global financial crisis. This study offers practical tools to regulators, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority for assessing interest rate risk exposures of the financial and non-financial sectors.     

Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis and the role of equity: The accounting behind hedge,speculative, and Ponzi finance

Hyman Minsky’s primary legacy to Keynesian macroeconomics involves two related features. He emphasized that real (market) analysis and financial (market) analysis should be analyzed together, not separately; and that the macro economy is inherently unstable (his “financial instability hypothesis”). He melded financial analysis and the “real” market economy to interpret cycles in economic activity. An economy in boom (euphoria, animal spirits) eventually runs out of steam, reaches a peak, and descends into recession. The recession after the Minsky-moment peak segues through several financial stages based on the financial conditions of individual firms; he termed these stages as hedge, speculative, and Ponzi finance. The fragility of the economy depends on the relative weights or importance of the economy’s firms in each of the three stages.     

关于两类金融资产划分动机的实证分析

笔者以上市公司初次实施金融工具的会计准则为研究契机,通过对两类金融工具在损益处理上的差异分析,研究了公允价值在我国实施的经济后果。研究发现管理层初次划分两类资产的动机受该股票过去储存利润的影响,即截至2007年初的公允价值变动损益越大,越可能被列入可供出售金融资产。此外,相对于民营企业,国有企业利用两类金融资产的划分进行盈余管理的动机更强。     

The financing of small innovative firms: the Italian case

Small firms encounter difficulties in collecting external finance due to greater information problems. For small innovative firms, whose activity is more difficult to evaluate, the cost of external finance could be even higher. This paper aims to shed light on special features in financial structures of small innovative firms, compared with firms of similar size that do not innovate. The evidence shows that small innovators rely less on financial debts and more on internal financial resources; no important differences appear for large firms. This is consistent with the view that information problems mainly affect small firms. Another finding is that small innovative firms show a lower investment sensitivity to cash flow than small non-innovative firms: it is likely that the high incidence of internal financial resources allows them more flexibility in deciding their investments. No difference in investment sensitivity to cash flow, by innovative attitude, is found for large firms.     

负盈余之信息内涵——以台湾上市公司为例

Hayn（1995）研究亏损公司的信息内涵时发现,当公司报导的盈余在某水准之上时,盈余与公司价值间会存在高度相关;当公司报导的盈余在某水准之下时,盈余与公司价值间的相关性趋近于零。过去文献大多强调负盈余公司较无信息内涵,依据Hayn（1995）的研究,在检视盈余与股票报酬时,样本中加入负盈余公司样本,会使盈余与股票报酬间的关系变得薄弱,此因投资人将负盈余视为暂时现象,投资人若不愿意承受企业有负盈余情况时,则可以随时将公司清算。但由于负盈余公司不一定执行清算选择权,使得负盈余可能是暂时现象,也有可能会持续发生。本研究通过探讨暂昤陆负盈余公司与持续性负盈余公司的信息内涵,结果显示暂时性负盈余公司较持续性负盈余公司具信息内涵。     

Hedge fund activism and corporate innovation

This paper investigates the impact of hedge fund activism on corporate innovating activities. It finds that innovative firms are as likely to be targeted by activist hedge funds as non-innovative firms. Activist hedge funds tend to target innovative firms with low innovation efficiency. Hedge fund interventions are associated with significant improvements in innovation output in both highly competitive and less competitive industries. The improvement is more pronounced in active intervention events. Our results suggest that activist hedge funds are not myopic investors and their interventions enhance innovative activities that benefit innovative firms’ long-term performance.     

Coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts

We study the length of agreements in a market in which infinitely-lived firms contract with agents that live for two periods. Firms differ in the expected values of their projects, as do workers in their abilities to manage projects. Worker effort is not contractible and worker ability is revealed during the relationship. The market dictates the trade-off between sorting and incentives. Short- and long-term contracts often coexist: The best firms always use short-term contracts to hire high-ability senior workers, firms with less profitable projects use short-term contracts to save on the cost of hiring junior workers, whereas intermediate firms use long-term agreements to provide better incentives to their workers. We relate our results to the optimal assignment literature that follows Becker (1973).     

Inflation, investment and economic performance: The role of internal financing

This paper studies a link between inflation and economic activity that is built on two hypotheses. First, firms mitigate informational frictions in financial markets by accumulating retained earnings over a period of time. Second, firms allocate earnings among three competing uses - dividends, current investment, and the accumulation of internal funds - and inflation directly distorts this allocation decision as well as the real value of accumulated internal funds. The model predicts that the level of inflation - both unanticipated and expected inflation - as well as the variability of inflation distort firms’ internal financing decisions, increases frictions in financial markets, reduces the level and efficiency of investment, and reduces aggregate output. The marginal effects of inflation are increasing in the inflation rate.